NextGen Stats - Week 6: QB Breakdowns and Takeaways

October 19, 2022

Antonio Losada provides key fantasy football updates for quarterbacks after Week 6, using Next Gen data to help fantasy owners make the best lineup and waiver wire decisions.

It's been a month since the last time we took a look at our beloved quarterbacks. Numbers are numbers, and numbers don't lie. You can twist them, but looking at them objectively, numbers say that no matter what, rushing the ball is almost always a worse option than passing it in today's game. That's why this column is the most important one you'll read today. It's time to tackle how quarterbacks have done through six weeks of play.

To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.

Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!

Week 6 - The State Of The Passing Game

One of the most important concepts to consider when analyzing players is air yards. The metrics around it are key to knowing who is really overperforming or underperforming among receivers and passers, but it doesn't have much to do with rushers.

Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with quarterback-fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.

As we'll be discussing quarterbacks and their passing stats, I will reduce the fantasy points per game averages to just those related to passing. That means that I have removed the rushing/receiving fantasy points the qualifying quarterbacks have logged during the season. I've called this metric paFP/G, which is to say passing Fantasy Points per Game.

So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 45 pass attempts.

Time to Throw

Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 6%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

Although there is some relation between TT and FPPG (paFP/G, I mean), the truth is that randomness is the calling card of this metric.

Although not quite represented in the table above, the randomness present in some of the names (Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields so close at the bottom of the leaderboard, for example) is telling.

• Quarterbacks in the quickest-12 group are averaging 14+ FPPG, though the individual scores range from 9.1 (Cooper Rush) to 23.2 (Josh Allen).
• Those in the slowest-12 group are yielding an average of 12 FPPG through Week 6, ranging from 6.7 (Teddy Bridgewater) to 21.6 (Patrick Mahomes).

Three weeks after the last time checked, Tom Brady is still leading the way when it comes to getting rid of the ball faster than anyone. He's improved from averaging QB2-level 12.3 FPPG to an eighth-best 16.0.

Aaron Rodgers is, once more, among the top-two quickest passers along with Brady. Rodgers and Brady are, in fact, the only two players passing in 2.50 or fewer seconds. They are only separated by 1.6 FPPG through Week 6. The main difference between both passers is that one is completing 5.1 CAY (Brady) while the other (Rodgers) has the lowest CAY (3.9).

Jimmy Garoppolo hit the ground running in replacing Trey Lance but his then fourth-quickest 2.53 seconds are now down to 2.62 with six games played--still the sixth-quickest mark at this point.

Cooper Rush (2.57 TT) is the quickest and most efficient passer to date: he's the only QB throwing passes in under 2.65 completing 6.6 CAY per attempt. Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen have slightly better CAY figures, though they're also taking between 0.09 and 0.11 more seconds to throw them on average.

Zach "Molasses" Wilson is the absolute slowest passer in the NFL and it's not even close. Wilson's 3.20 TT is 0.17 seconds slower than the second-slowest mark posted by Justin Fields (3.03). The distance between Wilson and Fields is the same as the distance between Fields and the 10th-slowest passer--Russell Wilson (2.86).

Among slow passers, only Lamar Jackson (15.2) is averaging 10+ FPPG on pure passing while taking more than 2.90 seconds to throw his passes. Brissett, exactly at a TT of 2.90, is averaging 11.2 FPPG.

All things considered, don't put much weight on this metric, as it is way more descriptive of past performance and style than predictive of future fantasy outings.

Completed/Intended Air Yards & Air Yards Differential

Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season):  32% / 17% / 24%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

None of the top-three passers in the leaderboard above have started all six games to date as every one of them was benched either because of injuries (Jameis Winston and Mac Jones) or poor performing levels (Mitch Trubisky). Is there any correlation there?

Funnily enough, all three aforementioned QBs also have strikingly similar TT with figures of 2.74, 2.75, and 2.76 seconds to throw their passes. Only Winston (13.4) was averaging more than 10 FPPG, though.

Surprisingly, there is an inverse correlation between IAY and FPPG so far this season. It is not overly strong (r-squared of minus-0.18) but still reasonable and worth considering. That said, there is an even stronger relationship between IAY and AGG%, which pretty much nullifies the other one.

Only 11 of the 38 qualified QB through Week 6 are attempting passers with an aDOT shorter than 7.0 yards. The most interesting player in that group: Patriots rookie Bailey Zappe, who has appeared in three games with an IAY of 6.4 (5.3 CAY) averaging a solid 12.6 FPPG on pure passing numbers.

Marcus Mariota and Justin Fields are both averaging fewer than 10 FPPG so far but they are the only two players with CAY figures above 8.0 yards while having started all six games for their teams.

That last bit is not surprising, though, considering Jackson and Tua Tagovailoa (21.7) are the only two players with a CAY figure above 6.0 yards averaging more than 20+ FPPG through Week 3. Their AGG% are on opposite sides of the spectrum, though, with Mariota "risking" 18%+ of his passes compared to Fields' fewer than 8%.

Aaron Rodgers and Kyler Murray are tied for the shorter CAY figure through Week 6: 3.9 yards each. They have similarly low IAY marks of 6.8 and 6.6 yards of aDOT so far but both are averaging 12+ FPPG so far.

Aggressiveness

Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): negative-30%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

NGS defines "Aggressiveness" as the percentage of passes a quarterback throws into tight coverage, that is when a defender is within one yard or less of the receiver at the point of the catch/interception. Don't take this metric as a sign of "braveness" or anything like that, though. It relates more to reckless passing than anything else.

The last time we checked, one and only one quarterback had yet to attempt an aggressive pass: Justin Fields. That has changed through Week 6 with all 38 qualified passers having at least four such throws (Skylar Thompson).

Thompson has the fewer aggressive passes mostly because he's only played two games and thrown 46 total passes. Among players with 5+ games, Fields still leads (trails) everybody with just nine aggressive throws (AGG% 7.8) on 115 attempts followed by Trevor Lawrence (14 on 203; AGG% 6.9).

There has not been much difference between Jameis Winston and Andy Dalto when it comes to finding tight windows: Winston left the rotation injured with an AGG% of 25.2 percent and Dalton is now averaging 23.8 percent AGG% himself. Trubisky and Rush are the only other two quarterbacks throwing more than 20% of their passes into tight spaces.

Patrick Mahomes (21.6) and Josh Allen (23.2) are the only two QBs averaging more than 18+ FPPG on pure passing stats. They are in possession of the ninth and seventh-lowest AGG% marks through Week 6. Again: a high AGG% doesn't mean a more willing/better passer. In this case, it just shows how Allen and Mahomes are capable of finding open teammates.

You might think aggressive and tight-window passes might come at shorter distances instead of further down the field; far from it. Winston, Mac Jones, Trubisky, and Mariota all have AGG% of 18%+ and rank top-4 in aDOT.

On the other hand, Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Matthew Stafford, and Bailey Zappe rank bottom-four in aDOP (all below 6.5 yards), and none of their AGG% marks is above 13.5%.

Only two quarterbacks (Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota) with an AGG% rate above 18% have thrown more than five touchdowns through Week 6. Conversely, seven of nine QBs with AGG% marks below 12% already have 8+ touchdowns this season.

Attempts & Yards & Y/A

Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 70% / 78% / 68%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

Not many big secrets are hidden in these three stats, am I right? The correlation is high with fantasy points basically because fantasy points rely mostly on pure yardage, and to rack up yards you have to throw the ball (the more the better, that is).

The Y/A figure that Baily Zappe has put up in his short NFL tenure is sublime. Is it legitimate, though? We'll have to wait to see if that's true, but the rookie is currently in possession of the third-highest mark only behind the two injured/benched Miami quarterbacks and above the likes of Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts.

On a more stabilized basis, it can be said that Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts are the real leaders on the Y/A front with 8.3 and 8.2 yards per attempt, respectively, on 239 and 184 attempts each.

On an absolutely stabilized and huge-volume, all-things-considered basis, though, this is turning into a Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes race. Check the stats through Week 6:

• Allen: 1,980 yards, 8.3 Y/A, 17 TD, 4 INT
• Mahomes: 1,736 yards, 7.6 Y/A, 17 TD, 4 INT

Kyler Murray has been without DeAndre Hopkins through Week 6, will miss Marquise Brown for the next six weeks, and will have to count on recently traded-for Robbie Anderson to boost his early-season numbers. Murray is averaging the joint-fewest Y/A (5.8) amount passers with at least 50 attempts this season along with Joe Flacco, has a 1.5 TD:INT ratio with just six scores, and has underperformed his completion rate by more than two percentage points (-2.1%).

No wonder why the likes of Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts seem to be underperforming the expectations this season with Fields and Mariota trailing all quarterbacks at just 19.2 and 22.8 pass attempts per game...

Zach Wilson (23.3) is very close to Fields and Mariota although Joe Flacco, through the first three weeks of the season when he backed up injured Wilson, was attempting the largest amount of passes per game with 51.7 (!) and no other QB averaging even 43 through Week 6.

Matthew Stafford (11.8) is the only quarterback averaging fewer than 12+ FPPG while attempting more than 35 passes per game. Matt Ryan's case is more worrying, though, as he's averaging just 12.4 FPPG while throwing the ball an average of 42.2 times per game.

Of course, Allen and Mahomes also lead the league (min. five games played) in FP/Att with 0.58 and 0.57 fantasy points, respectively. Tua Tagovailoa is the actual best QB at it with a mark of 0.59, but he's only appeared in five games and attempted 115 attempts.

Completion Percentage & xCOMP & COMP Above Expectation

Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season):  67% / 26% / 69%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

The world of hypotheticals is cool, but what truly matters is what actually happens on the field. That is why the real completion percentage is the stat that matters, and why the expected rate doesn't cut a good deal for fantasy GMs.

That being said, the difference between both marks (CPOE) is the strongest indicator of fantasy performance, which makes sense considering that those who "overperform" or play to higher-than-expected levels on average are the ones who more often than not put on high-octane performances.

It's been six weeks of play already. Are we sure Geno Smith is not the real deal? Of course, Geno is not going to win any sort of OPOY--let alone MVP--award but... what about giving him some Comeback POY gold? Wouldn't that make sense? Smith is completing 7.7% more passes than the models would have predicted and no other player with 6+ games played is even remotely close to that CPOE (Daniel Jones, +2.6%).

Winston has to come back from injury, Dalton is his backup, and Bailey Zappe just started his NFL career too recently to consider any of those three legitimate contenders to outperform Geno Smith's CPOE right now. Let's give them three more weeks and see where they sit then.

Stafford has tried to keep things simple and limit the errors but that's not really working for him. The completion rate is extraordinary (one of only three above 70%) but the overall results are not that good (6-to-8 TD:INT ratio, 11.8 FPPG).

If this was a simulated videogame (xCOMP) instead of a real sport played on actual football fields, then Geno Smith would only be the 16th-best quarterback in terms of pass completion followed by Justin Fields. That's not the case, though, so Geno has the best COMP%, and Fields (54.8%) is still the most atrocious NFL passer we've ever seen.

Through Week 6, there are 19 underperforming players (negative CPOE), 18 overperformers, and only one player completing exactly the same amount of passes as the NGS model would have expected: Joe Burrow (66.7%).

The fantasy breakdown after Week 6:

• QBs averaging 15+ FPPG through Week 6 are completing passes with a CPOE of +0.2%, slightly overperforming expectations.
• QBs averaging <12 FPPG through Week 6 are completing passes with a CPOE of minus-2.6% clearly underperforming expectations.

That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!

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