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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 57: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot on 06/25/22. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
It's been a wild month of June and it's time to calm down a bit. That's probably what Dana thought throwing UFC Vegas 57 in the end of this month's schedule after the promo visited Singapore a couple of dates ago and Austin, TX last weekend. Don't get fooled, though, as this event will take place in the UFC Apex but the next one--oh, boy, the next one. Let's not get ahead of ourselves--even if it's hard not to look forward to that Adesanya vs. Cannonier war--and start at the beginning.
This weekend's Vegas Event, the 57th of them, has a couple of bona fide studs facing each other for a jump up the lightweight division ladder: Arman Tsarukyan and Mateusz Gamrot, both of whom have put together five and three Ws respectively while career-dropping just one fight. Not enough, you say? That's why we will also get to enjoy the likes of Neil Magny, Josh Parisian, or returning phenom Umar Nurmagomedov. Not bad for a UFC 276 warm-up, is it?
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 57: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot on 06/25/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Arman Tsarukyan, $9100 - vs. Mateusz Gamrot
If this battle doesn't have you excited, then I don't even know what does. Tsarukyan is entering the octagon this weekend having a career-wise 5-1 record to his name fighting under Dana's promo. Gamrot is 3-1 himself, all of those wins taking place last year exclusively. The two men have finished their last two and three opponents respectively early (Tsarukyan with two KOs, Gamrot with two KOs and a submission). Their only losses, one for each, saw them both go the distance (15 minutes) and in both cases took place in their UFC-debut fights. Long gone are those.
None of these two have put up legit striking numbers at any point on a per-minute basis, but that's probably more because they're so dominant at other things on top of that that they don't even need to hit foes that much. You can project a ceiling of around 150 SSA and 40 SSL next Saturday whoever you pick, but the mojo is to be found in the takedown department. Arman has gone for 43 (!) takedowns in his six fights while landing 16 of them, but he has yet to get that W via sub. Gamrot is 12-of-30 himself in just four fights and has one submission victory. It's a true headache coming up with a favorite for this one, honestly, but I guess I'd side with the younger Tsarukyan here because of the slightly higher strike numbers and the ridiculous takedown volume/chasing.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Neil Magny, $6900 - vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov
Not the most contrasting fight in terms of experience we've ever seen in the UFC, but surely one of a kind. Magny's fighting in the U for the 27th time this weekend after starting doing it all the way back in Feb. 2013. Shavkat, on the other hand, just has three fights inside the Octagon one each in 2020, 2021, and 2022. With Magny about to turn 35 years old next August, he's trying to squeeze the last drops of strength he has left after having missed on fighting for a belt throughout his whole career. He's 5-1 in his six last fights (starting in Mar. 2020) so there is still a chance he pulls the feat off.
Shavkat is still on the right side of 30 and he's been a freaking tornado since entering the UFC circuit: eighteen months, three fights, three victories. Those are the numbers. Shavkat submitted his first two foes in no more than 7:10 minutes each and KO'd his last opponent last February in just 4:10 of fighting time. All he's needed to cook himself that 3-0 record is landing 47 strikes and two takedowns (on six attempts). Magny is a grizzled veteran though with monster grappling chops, too. He's 12-of-29 on takedowns in that late six-fight span while also averaging more SSA and SSL per minute--while also dragging fights to the final bell. It's Magny for me as a less volatile, boom/bust type of fighter as long as he stays alive past the first round.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Josh Parisian, $7800 - vs. Alan Baudot
This fight hella sucks. Parisian is a 1-2 fighter and Baudot is an even-worse 0-3 contestant. What the hell is this thing!? While Parisian has shown some willingness to pull off a takedown here or there, he has only landed one of the nine he's attempted (he went 1-of-7 in a single fight alone... mind you). Baudot has yet to bend his back trying to bring someone down in three fights and counting.
Of course, these two are heavyweights so it's not that we can ask for bright flashes outside of arena-rocking punches, but too bad for these two they have been on the wrong end of those hits more often than not--in the UFC, at least. Baudot has been rather mediocre in terms of volume only reaching 100+ total SSL once and averaging 9.6 SSA per minute. Parisian has an average of 9.0 SSA/min and could only go 10-of-16 SSL over 13:26 minutes of fighting his last time out. At least he attempted 160 and 226 strikes in his first two fights landing half of them. That's all I have (along with the single takedown in his resume, I guess) to back up my pick of Parisian. Hate both fighters and having to make a pick, but if you're forced into choosing one, I'd say go with Josh P.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Christos Giagos, $7200 - vs. Thiago Moises
Giagos missed more than three years of UFC fight-time between 2015 and 2018 but since returning in September of that latter year he's 4-3 overall and 2-1 since Dec. 2020. Moises has been doing it in the UFC for three years and a half without ever stopping and is 4-4 carrying a two-fight losing streak entering Saturday's event. He's been rather active, though, with five fights in the past 24 months. This is not a high-stakes, top-tier fight, but at least it will showcase a pair of very contrasting fighters going against each other.
Giagos has gone for 48 takedowns in his past six bouts landing 21 of those. That means he's nearly been capable of landing half of his attempts, and in fact, he has at least 2 TDs in all five fights in which he's gone from at least one (he's always gone for 5+ though). Moises, on the other hand, is just 3-of-6 in his last five bouts (better percentage but on a waaaaaaay lower volume, killing his upside a bit). Both fighters lost via KO the last time we saw them (Giagos last September, Moises last November), but those were their only such losses. Giagos has also a slightly better stat line in strikes landed and attempted per minute, giving him the edge on both the hitting and grappling fronts. There is a great chance we see either a submission or a full-time judge's decision. Anyway, Giagos should be the theoretical fantasy pick here.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Umar Nurmagomedov, $9500 - vs. Nate Maness
Alright, so, how am I supposed to pick one fighter here? These two men are a combined 5-0 in the UFC, have both landed at least one takedown in all of those fights, only have one win via decision compared to three via submission and one via KO, and, well, they have yet to meet defeat as if that wasn't already obvious. Nate Maness went from winning in a 15-minute decision to a second-round submission to a 2:10 KO victory of late. Umar Nurmagomedov finished his debut foe in 8:39 via submission but it only took 3:15 to deal with his second opponent. Lord, have mercy for those who suffer these two.
The problem, you know, is that these two are facing each other this weekend. Want a stupid number? Umar has already racked up more DKFP in his two fights than other 407 fighters with at least three fights have gone on to score in their careers. Maness three-of-four takedowns in three fights are not historic per se, but rather impressive indeed. My problem with Maness is that the lone time we watched him fight a full three-round bout he flopped and could only get 45.5 DKFP even winning that fight (21-of-50 striking, 1-for-1 on takedowns). Nurmagomedov would have beaten that score in his debut (25-of-41 striking, 5-of-11 on takedowns) even removing the early-finish bonus points and having fought 6:20 fewer minutes than Maness did. That's a huge difference and the main reason why I'm picking Umar this weekend.
