RADIO
The EPL is back after an international break and we're looking to pick up from where we left off a fortnight ago. In a shortened slate, we started off with a loss after Wolves led 2-0 but were controversially reduced to ten men and ended up losing 3-2. But, we managed to bag healthy profits in two of our other games and ended the weekend with a 121% ROI. We have a full ten-game weekend slate, starting on Saturday morning and as always, there's plenty to play for and plenty of interesting odds.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offer the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 117-185-15 (-23.50 units & 92.05% ROI)
- Match results: 33-42
Saturday, April 02nd, 2022
Manchester City (-450) at Burnley (+1423) - 10:00 am ET
You will have noticed I tend to avoid the top teams' games due to such shortened odds. But despite Manchester City being such heavy favorites, there's still value to be had here. This pick is predominantly down to their head-to-head record.
Manchester City have certainly had Burnley's number, and then some, in recent times. They've won their last nine meetings in all competitions with an aggregate score of 32-1. Seven of those wins have come in the EPL over the last four seasons in which Manchester have outscored Burnley 24-1.
Dating back to last season, Manchester City have wins of 2-0, 2-0 and 5-0 against Burnley. Although Burnley would love to get something from this game, they also have a huge relegation six-pointer against Everton on Wednesday so will more than likely be eyeing up their midweek game as a chance to secure three points as opposed to this game.
Manchester City were held to a goalless draw last time out and haven't gone two games without a league win all season so I expect them to get back to winning ways here and handsomely at that.
I'll also be on Riyad Mahrez to score, assuming he starts the game. He's tied with Raheem Sterling as Manchester City's top scorer this season with ten and has eight goals in 11 EPL games against Burnley throughout his career. As a Manchester City player, he has seven goals in six games (five starts) against them.
Score prediction: Burnley 0 - 3 Manchester City
Betting Picks
- Win to nil - Manchester City (-110) 1 unit
- Handicap - Manchester City -1.5 (-140) 1.5 units
- To score anytime - Riyad Mahrez (-110) 1 unit
Southampton (+196) at Leeds United (+146) - 10:00 am ET
Two teams moving in opposite directions clash in this one. Leeds come into the game following back-to-back league wins while Southampton have lost their last three league games before losing to Manchester City in the FA Cup two weeks ago. I'm expecting that form to continue with a home win, although there are other more appealing markets.
I feel like we could see a few goals in this one. Both sides' last two games have seen both teams score and over 2.5 goals. Southampton's 14 away games have seen a total of 47 goals (3.36 per game average) while Leeds' 15 home games have seen a total of 46 goals (3.07 per game average).
We'll also be playing the bookings market, Leeds being the most penalized team in the league with 90 yellow cards and Southampton having the eighth-most bookings with 54. Leeds have picked up 13 bookings in their last three games and 28 in their last seven. Southampton have received six yellow cards in their last six games. I expect Leeds to be more penalized than the visitors.
Score prediction: Leeds United 2 - 1 Southampton
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Leeds United (+146) 1 unit
- Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals - Yes (-110) 1 unit
- A goal in both halves - Yes (-167) 1.5 units
- Most cards - Leeds United (-118) 1 unit
Aston Villa (+165) at Wolves (+204) - 10:00 am ET
These midlands rivals are separated by just one place in the league, but Wolves are ten points better off. When these two met earlier in the season, Wolves produced a remarkable late comeback, overturning a 2-0 deficit in the final ten minutes to win 3-2.
They will be without star players Ruben Neves (injured) and Raul Jimenez (suspended) and have just two wins from their last six league games (both against teams in the bottom four). Wolves have only taken 20 points from their 15 home games while they've picked up 26 points on the road (15 games).
Aston Villa have taken 18 points at home (14 games) and 18 points away (15 games) and are yet to draw an away game all season. I'm not confident that will change this weekend but I'm leaning more towards a tight game with goals and possibly see the away team take all three points with Wolves missing key players. I just don't believe that justifies them being favorites with the oddsmakers so won't be really banging on it.
We'll be playing the cards market again with this being a local derby and with the appointment of Darren England as the referee. He's shown 46 yellow cards (and one red) in 12 EPL games this season and both teams were shown two yellow cards in their last matchup.
Wolves' last three league games saw four, five and eight yellow cards (plus two red cards) while Aston Villa's last three league games have seen six, one and eight yellow cards.
I also like the corners market in this one. Their 3-2 game saw a total of 13 corners and Aston Villa games average 11.03 corners per game while Wolves games average 10.03 corners per game. I expect the game to be quite end-to-end so double-digit corners seem likely in that scenario.
Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 2 Aston Villa
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Aston Villa (+165) 0.5 units
- Draw no bet - Aston Villa (-128) 1 unit
- Both teams to score - Yes (+100) 1 unit
- Both teams total cards - Over 1.5 (+120) 1 unit
- Total corners - Over 10.5 (+100) 1 unit
Sunday, April 03rd, 2022
Everton (+371) at West Ham United (-125) - 08:30 am ET
The last game of interest is purely based on West Ham's odds. While they are not in as good of form as they were earlier in the season, they are still a considerably better team than Everton right now and I expected them to be more in the -200 odds range.
Everton did win their last game, a 1-0 victory at home to Newcastle United. But they needed a 99th-minute goal to win the points in a game they were outplayed, having just 40% possession and three shots on target. That ended a run of four straight defeats without a goal.
Everton's away record is awful, with one win, three draws and nine defeats from their 13 away games. That solitary win came back on matchweek 3 and their last four away games all ended in defeat with an aggregate score of 2-12.
West Ham won the reverse fixture 1-0 and I see a similar scoreline here. West Ham have picked up ten points from their last four home games with all three wins coming by one goal. In their last 20 league games, their only two wins by more than one goal were both against sides in the relegation zone, furthering my belief they win by the odd goal.
Everton have managed just three goals in the second half away from home this season while West Ham have the third-best second half record at home this season. We'll also back the home team to outscore Everton in the second 45 minutes.
The corners market has some value and intrigue too. Everton have taken the fewest number of corners in the league this season (112 averaging 4.15 per game), while West Ham have taken 161 which is fifth most, averaging 5.37 per game.
In Everton's 13 away games this season, they have taken more than five corners just once, taking eight against bottom of the table Norwich. West Ham haven't taken more than five corners in each of their last five home games.
That being said, West Ham have had fewer corners than their opponents in each of their last four home games, despite not losing any of those games so winning and taking fewer corners isn't mutually exclusive.
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 - 0 Everton
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - West Ham United (-125) 1.5 units
- Second half moneyline - West Ham United (+110) 1 unit
- Winning margin - West Ham United by 1 (+260) 0.5 units
- Race to 7 corners - Neither (-135) 1 unit
- Corners handicap - Everton +0.5 (+146) 0.5 units
Parlay
- West Ham to win, Aston Villa draw no bet, Leeds United draw no bet (+467) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
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