MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/9/2025)

August 9, 2025

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/9/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Christian Yelich, Brandon Lowe, Tyler Soderstrom, and others.

The hunt for homers never ends here at RotoBaller! I'm pinch-hitting for my good buddy Zach Thompson, who normally gives you his best home run recommendations on Saturdays. I've scoured the stats and matchups, and I think I've located some really good spots for home runs today. Some guys are more obvious picks than others, and I always try to hunt for a few hitters with +500 odds or better, too!

The strategy for targeting home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. In this article, I attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible. I try not to pick the obvious plays, especially when the plan is to use them in a round-robin format. Hitting a couple of value home runs when we can provides significant upside in a round robin.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, August 9, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/9/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Saturday, August 9:

• Tyler Soderstrom, Athletics
• Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
• Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
• Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
• Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays

Tyler Soderstrom OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings)

The left-handed first baseman is swinging a hot bat lately, clubbing two home runs in his last three games. He has both a good matchup in mound opponent (righty Brandon Young) and a favorable park factor working in his favor, as Camden Yards is one of the best venues for left-handed power bats.

Tyler Soderstrom homers in back-to-back games.

He currently owns a 9 game on-base streak.pic.twitter.com/6hF444mPjU

— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) August 7, 2025

Young has allowed a .575 SLG to lefties this season and six home runs. His 1.74 HR/9 is the fourth-worst mark of any pitcher on the bump today.

We are getting much better odds on Soderstrom than the other big lefty in the lineup, Nick Kurtz, and Soderstrom has had more success with the long ball lately.

Bobby Witt Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350 FanDuel)

It's been a hellish season for Twins' righty Bailey Ober. His 5.38 ERA is a major disappointment after he had such a strong season in 2024, and his biggest issue this season has been the long ball as he's sporting a 2.13 HR/9 through 18 starts (so no small sample size here).

He's bad against hitters from both sides of the plate, but the two power bats I am interested in here are both righties with some good results against Ober in their careers - Salvador Perez and Bobby Witt Jr.

KC - Bobby Witt Jr. Solo HR (17)

📏 Distance: 456 ft
💨 EV: 108.7 mph
📐 LA: 30°
⚾️ 86.5 mph slider (MIN - RHP Travis Adams)
🏟️ Would be out in 30/30 MLB parks

KC (2) @ MIN (7)
🔺 6th#FountainsUp pic.twitter.com/nRWw0ZlH6Q

— MLB Home Runs🚀 (@MLBHRs_) August 9, 2025

Witt Jr. has just 17 home runs on the season, but is still smashing the baseball with a 13% barrel%. He left the yard yesterday, and I like his chances again today with the wind blowing out to left field in Minnesota and some warm, humid weather.

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Christian Yelich OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings)

I want to pick on the Mets' Frankie Montas today. It's been a very bad year for Montas, who is trying to get his career back on track after a series of injuries suffered over the last several seasons.

The once formidable RHP sports a 6.68 ERA and 1.54 WHIP through his first seven starts as a Met. He's been serving up long balls quite often with a 1.87 HR/9 mark and a 10.7% barrel%.

He's tried to retool his arsenal to be less dependent on his fastball (which is getting torched to the tune of a .722 SLG), but unfortunately, his secondary pitches other than his splitter are all getting hit hard, too. His slider, sinker, and cutter are all getting crushed, too, especially by lefties who own a .623 SLG against him this season with six homers.

Enter Christian Yelich, the veteran lefty in this Brewers' lineup and one of the better "low-ball hitters" of the past decade. He profiles extremely well against the current Montas pitch mix, and with 21 home runs this season, he's shown that he can still hit for power at this stage of his career.

Oh, and did I mention it's Christian Yelich bobblehead doll day at the stadium today, too? You have to love that narrative!

Corbin Carroll OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+290 FanDuel)

Carroll will be attempting to go yard for the third straight game tonight, and I like his chances against Colorado starter Bradley Blalock, who has a 1.86 HR/9 mark on the season through nine starts.

Pitching your home games at Coors Field certainly doesn't help, but Blalock still has a 1.50 HR/9 on the road this season and just a 10% strikeout rate. He gives up a ton of hard contact and has been hit particularly hard by lefties this season (.540 SLG, .403 wOBA).

Corbin Carroll's 24th home run of the season pads the @Dbacks lead! pic.twitter.com/J5qWGG8srv

— MLB (@MLB) August 9, 2025

Arizona will have the roof closed tonight as it's still a million degrees in Arizona, but I'll take my chances with a slugger of Carroll's caliber. Even in a neutral setting, he has the power and elite contact skills to send one over the wall tonight, and this matchup is simply one of the best on the board, too.

Brandon Lowe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 FanDuel)

In keeping with our theme of hot hitters today, I want to ride with lefty Brandon Lowe against Seattle's Logan Evans. Lowe has two home runs in his last three games, including one last night to give him 21 on the season.

Brandon Lowe's 21st home run of the season puts @RaysBaseball in front 😎 pic.twitter.com/ooKRdStRj6

— MLB (@MLB) August 9, 2025

Lowe and Junior Caminero have the best power numbers against RHP this year, and Evans has been equally bad to righties as he has been to lefties, so Caminero is a nice play, too. However, I am sticking with the hot hand in Lowe and the traditional split matchup of a lefty power bat against a right-handed pitcher.

Evans has a bizarre pitch mix as he features a cutter, sinker, and slider as his main pitches and hardly throws his fastball at all. None of his pitches rate all that well, and I think he's the classic case of a guy who throws a lot of junk because he doesn't have much confidence in any of his pitches to feature them.

Evans has a low K% (17.7%,) which bodes well for a high-strikeout guy like Lowe. He's also allowed 1.57 HR/9 this season and a very poor 11.4% barrel rate. I love this spot for Lowe tonight. If he's patient and waits for Evans to leave one of his offspeed pitches over the plate, I think he could drill another homer and keep his hot streak going.

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