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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 8/9/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
In my last round of NRFIs on Tuesday, we again went 3-2 and are still searching for that day when we hit at least four. We'll take a positive day, but there's always room for improvement. Saturday brings us a glorious opportunity to cash in on that with a full slate of MLB games.
We will stick with our routine of four NRFI selections and one YRFI. We've nailed each of our last two YRFI picks, and we'll look to keep it rolling. We will, of course, be using team and pitcher-level data and trends to back up our picks.
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI bets today for MLB games on Saturday, August 9, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are bets where you try to pick whether or not two MLB teams will combine for one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
We prefer to target NRFI because it tends to occur more frequently, which is why you usually see shorter odds than on YRFI. This strategy can change on a slate with worse pitching options, and we have seen offenses start to push back against the NRFI in the summer months, when hitting conditions are better.
The best part of NRFI wagers is how they settle so quickly. This is a fun sweat, as these six outs can be thrilling, especially if your pitcher works his way out of a jam. Remember to only go with a smaller percentage of your bankroll because this can be a volatile market, with even the best pitchers struggling in the first inning.
Best First Inning Bets Today (August 9, 2025)
- Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers: 6:10 pm
- Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox: 7:10 pm
- Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals: 7:15 pm
- Philadelphia Phillies at Texas Rangers: 7:15 pm
- Boston Red Sox at San Diego Padres: 8:40 pm
Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers NRFI (-128 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- LAA: Yusei Kikuchi
- DET: Charlie Morton
Kikuchi has been as advertised in his first season with the Angels, holding a 3.22 ERA for the season. He came into the season wanting to throw a sweeper as a pitch to get lefties out, but had to lower his arm angle to throw the pitch effectively. It ultimately had a negative effect on the rest of his arsenal, and he eliminated its usage entirely since April; as a result, he has been even better with a 2.89 ERA.
Morton was excellent in his Tigers debut, allowing only one run and striking out six over six innings against the Phillies.
Welcome to Detroit, Charlie Morton!
6.0 IP | 4 H | 1 ER | 1 BB | 6 K
84 pitches
70% strikes
15 whiffs
21 CSW%Increased the FB usage. Very promising start.pic.twitter.com/Zh7QkwtV5O
— DataBase Hit (@DatabaseHit) August 4, 2025
Both the Angels and Tigers' offenses have struggled to score in the first inning recently, holding a 9-1 record for NRFIs. They both hold a sub-200 OBP, and with two pitchers who are trending positively on the mound, it's a favorable spot for a clean first inning.
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox NRFI (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- CLE: Joey Cantillo
- CHW: Sean Burke
Here’s our spot to target a YRFI, featuring the Guardians, the recent kings of first-inning scoring. They’ve scored in a league-high 13 of their last 30 first innings, including five of the past 10. Factor in the opposing pitcher in Sean Burke, who has some brutal numbers in the first innings for the season. He has a 10-8 NRFI record and a 1.41 WHIP in the opening frame.
His counterpart, Joey Cantillo, isn't much better with a split 3-3 record in his handful of starts. And the White Sox have been seeing left-handed pitching well of late, hitting the second most homers (17) and tied for the fourth highest OPS (.784) since July.
The Guardians are just a half game back of the Yankees for the final AL Wild Card spot pic.twitter.com/IEqYFXsNz0
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) August 9, 2025
The White Sox are more middle-of-the-pack for first-inning scoring over the last 30 games at a 22-8 record. But they are tied for the second most homers, and with Cantillo's below-average velocity (91.6 MPH), White Sox hitters could pounce on an early heater and send one into the bleachers to bring us home.
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals NRFI (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- CHC: Colin Rea
- STL: Andre Pallante
Neither starting pitcher would fall into the stud category, but they are capable of combining for six outs. Pallante is a groundball machine with an elite infield defense behind him that converts grounders into outs at one of the league's highest rates. Plus, he pitches better at his home ballpark.
Rea has been unspectacular but solid with a 4.23 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 110.2 innings.
Andre Pallante, Filthy 95mph Two Seamer. 😷
4th K thru 5...and 🤫 pic.twitter.com/0vJekzvdiu
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 29, 2025
Both starters, however, do hold favorable NRFI records with Pallante at 18-4 and Rea at a less dominant 13-6. But Rea is helped out by the Cardinals have been scoreless in the first innings of their last 10 games. And the Cubs aren't too much better with a 7-3 record to the NRFI.
Philadelphia Phillies at Texas Rangers NRFI (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- PHI: Jesus Luzardo
- TEX: Jacob deGrom
This matchup more so fits the criteria of two studs on the mound. DeGrom is coming off arguably his two worst starts of his season in Seattle, allowing five runs in each of them. I have no doubts he will bounce back at home, where he's been nearly untouchable with a 1.91 ERA.
Jesus Luzardo, on the other side, has been one of the best all season in the first inning with an 18-5 record.
Jacob deGrom is the fastest pitcher in MLB history to 1,800 strikeouts by games (240) and innings (1,493.1) 🔥
h/t @EliasSports pic.twitter.com/pUQ0Rrhosn
— MLB (@MLB) August 3, 2025
The Rangers have gone cold in the first inning over their last 10 games, scoring only once and hitting .200 as a team. The Phillies have a worse batting average at .152, but have been able to score twice in that span thanks to the long ball.
Boston Red Sox at San Diego Padres NRFI (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- BOS: Lucas Giolito
- SD: Michael King
King is set to return from the 60-day IL on Saturday, which is big time for the Padres. He was in the midst of following up beautifully on his strong first season in San Diego, holding a 2.59 ERA and 1.02 WHIP prior to hurting his shoulder.
Giolito has fared better away from the challenges of Fenway Park this year, posting a 3.10 ERA on the road compared to 4.15 at home.
Michael King in his first rehab start:
3.1 IP, 4 H, 6 R, 1 BB, 5 K
(61 pitches - 34 strikes)Fastball looked good, as did the sweeper. Next steps remain to be seen.pic.twitter.com/ZfeVoeSQCf
— Diego Garcia (@StatNerd_Base) August 4, 2025
The Padres have scored just twice in their last 10 first innings, while the Red Sox have scored in three. It's perhaps a tad risky relying on King in his first start back against a good Boston lineup, but he looked good in his rehab start and hopefully shouldn't miss a beat.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Best NRFI hit rate: Cardinals (100%)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Pirates, Diamondbacks, Asros (60%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Pirates (5)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Pirates (.438)
- Best First Inning On-Base Percentage: Pirates (.517)
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