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Every year a player or two goes off and puts up video game numbers. Which players have the best odds of doing so in fantasy football 2025? Read Michael Florio's top targets.
Everyone who has ever played Madden or any other sports video game knows that you can put up crazy numbers. Imagine if you got those stats in fantasy football? You would surely dominate.
Unfortunately, your create-a-character is not in fantasy drafts. But having Ja'Marr Chase or Saquon Barkley was the closest thing to it last season. The previous year featured Christian McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill. Before that, it was Justin Jefferson and Travis Kelce. So on and so on.
Every year, there is a player or two who put up video game stats and raise your odds of winning a championship more than any other player in the game. Finding those players should be your objective in the early rounds.
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Running Backs Set to Explode
Bijan Robinson was close to going nuclear on us last year. He was one of two backs to score double-digit fantasy points in every game (Jahmyr Gibbs). He also led all backs with 10 games of 20-plus PPR points. He picked up 29 percent of the Falcons' scrimmage yards and 39 percent of their scrimmage touchdowns, both top two in the NFL.
He finished second among backs in percent of snaps played and red zone touches. He was in the top five at the position in attempts, rush yards, targets, catches, and receiving yards.
Robinson went for nearly 1,900 scrimmage yards and 15 touchdowns last season. The scary part is that it still very much feels like there is another gear for him to reach. He did so last year in what was a very broken Falcons offense for much of the season. They may sputter again with Michael Penix Jr., but there is at least upside there.
We know he has the talent, and we saw last year that the new coaching staff built the ship around him. The only thing he needs is for the offense to move the ball more consistently, and he should be able to put up a video game season. The same play caller and (pretty much) offensive line return this year. Robinson has the greatest chance of posting a video game season of anyone in the NFL this season.
Bijan Robinson straight out of a video game 🎮 pic.twitter.com/rvaoC9ynES
— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) June 23, 2025
Gibbs finished as the top-scoring fantasy RB last season if you count Week 18. He was also the best back during the fantasy playoffs, helping many win titles. Gibbs topped 70 scrimmage yards in every game last season. He scored 20 touchdowns last year and a league-high 31 in the previous two seasons.
Gibbs has blazing speed and is a threat to take it the distance on every touch. He is elite as a pass catcher, outstanding as a goal-line back, and gets touched behind the line of scrimmage the fewest of all backs in the NFL. I do not have to convince you that Gibbs can put up video game numbers. We have seen him come pretty close already and do so for stretches.
The worry with Gibbs, if there is any, is the loss of Ben Johnson. The Lions' running backs have over 30 more goal-line carries than any other team in the three years Johnson was in Detroit.
But on the flip side, what if the Lions opt to use Gibbs even more? We saw him average nearly 33 fantasy PPG in three games without David Montgomery last year. If Gibbs had the backfield to himself, it would be tough to argue that anyone else brings more upside. Still, Montgomery is not just going to go away. Gibbs had 302 touches last year, Robinson and Barkley each had 360-plus, and Gibbs matched the fantasy production.
More touches, and he could put up numbers that you only see in your Madden franchise.
De'Von Achane was already a top-five fantasy RB last season. However, we have already seen that he has the potential to go nuclear. In games with Tua Tagovailoa last season, he averaged 22.6 fantasy PPG. That would have led all running backs. He scored nearly 40 more points off of receiving production than any running back.
That was partially because Achane is such a weapon out of the backfield and partially because the Dolphins abandoned the deep ball last season. They threw downfield just six percent of the time, the fewest in the NFL over the previous two years. Miami got rid of the ball in about 2.5 seconds, the fastest time in the NFL. No one else was less than 2.65 seconds, and the league average was 2.81. Tagovailoa specifically was 2.42 seconds.
I believe this was by design, as Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins coaches likely emphasized getting the ball out of Tagovailoa’s hands as fast as possible. I expect a ton of pass game usage for Achane once again. He also has less of a perceived threat heading into the season than he did a year ago.
He is extremely explosive, dominated goal-line work, and was the most effective pass-catching back in fantasy last year. There is a good chance he can put up video game numbers if he and Tagovailoa stay healthy this season.
De'Von Achane scored 173.2 fantasy points from receiving numbers last year
That was 39 more fantasy points than any other RB https://t.co/mtc0jMfmIi
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) May 21, 2025
Ashton Jeanty may surprise some here, but he has the talent and the chance to see enough volume to do so. The one major thing working against him is his offensive line and the offense he is associated with in general. Still, it is possible Jeanty could lead the NFL in touches even as a rookie.
Pete Carroll loves to run the ball. In fact, there was an eight-year stretch during which Seattle finished in the top three in rushing attempts six times. Chip Kelly has been in charge of an NFL offense for four seasons and has been in the top five in rushing attempts twice. In the other years, his team finished seventh and 11th.
Jeanty, who is highly explosive, has the big-play capability in his game. Don’t believe me? Just watch his college tape. He is also tough to tackle, having shattered the PFF college record for forced missed tackles. That should help make up for some of the line woes.
I also believe Jeanty is a better receiver than the college stats may show. Jeanty was able to run all over defenses, so they didn't throw him the ball often. But on tape, he showed he has reliable hands. It is a bit more of a dark horse candidate in this regard, but he certainly brings that upside.
Get excited for Ashton Jeanty in fantasy football - and these new graphics!
Just maybe ignore the last thing I said 😔😂 pic.twitter.com/ubApzMBTLZ
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) April 30, 2025
Some may be surprised not to see Barkley and Derrick Henry here. For one, we did just see them do so last year, and everyone knows they have that potential. But even more so, Barkley concerns me coming off a nearly 500-touch season, when he had never topped 400 in a previous season. Henry has surpassed the age cliff. They can still go nuclear, but they also bring a little more risk.
Wide Receivers Set to Explode
Chase is here for obvious reasons. Not only did he win the triple crown, but he scored the fourth-most fantasy points by a wide receiver ever. He led the NFL in end zone targets, catches of 40-plus yards, and in YAC. You know how amazingly talented Chase is and just how high his fantasy ceiling is. Typically, I would not chase (no pun intended!) a career year and expect similar production.
However, the Bengals made little to no improvement to their defense. So, just like last year, the Bengals should be in a lot of very high-scoring games. Chase is tied to a fantastic QB, with whom he has great chemistry, on a team that will have to throw a bunch. There is a reason he is the 1.01, and he could go nuclear for a second-straight season.
CeeDee Lamb is coming off a down year by his standards. That partly had to do with his starting QB missing a lot of time. Even more than that, I think it was due to Lamb not only being the only threat on the Cowboys last year, but also him having to play out wide even more.
Lamb excels out of the slot. Last season, though, he had his second-fewest routes, targets, catches, yards, and YAC from the slot. In 2023, Lamb racked up 65 catches, 894 yards, and eight touchdowns from the slot, which also led to him posting video game numbers that season.
With George Pickens now in town and plenty capable of being the Cowboys' X receiver, we could see Lamb potentially play more out of the slot than ever before. That is a scary thought.
Plus, Lamb brings a super safe floor. He is the only player with 150-plus targets in each of the last three seasons and at least 1,100 receiving yards in each of the previous four. Only he and Jefferson have averaged 17-plus fantasy PPG in the last three years. Lamb with more time in the slot and a healthy Dak Prescott could once again return to elite form.
Average Separation Score leaders from the slot
[min. 225 slot routes]1. Ladd McConkey
2. Ja'Marr Chase
3. CeeDee Lamb
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown
5. Josh Downs pic.twitter.com/klb4OQJAgr— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) June 23, 2025
Malik Nabers finished as the WR6 in total points and fantasy PPG last season as a rookie. Even more impressive is that he did so with a quartet of Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito, and Tim Boyle throwing him the ball. That is extremely impressive, all things considered.
Nabers did so by being an elite target earner. His 31 percent target share was the highest in the NFL. He had the most catches ever by a rookie WR. Nabers accomplished all that despite having the third-most unrealized air yards (875) and the ninth-highest rate of uncatchable targets (21%). It highlights just how poor the QB play in New York was last year.
The Giants have upgraded that room, bringing in Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Jaxson Dart.
If Nabers sees the same sort of volume, just with better QB play, he could go nuclear. But what really should get you excited is that we could see Nabers’ downfield ability unleashed. Last season, 102 of his 170 (60 percent) were less than 10 air yards. He had just five catches on deep passes (30+ yards).
That was not a Nabers issue, as we saw he is an excellent field stretcher in college. With the new QBs being able to get the ball downfield, Nabers has the potential to finish as the best WR in fantasy and put up truly video game-like numbers.
On deep passes in 2024
- Russell Wilson: 654 yds, 5 TDs, 2 INT, 111 rating, 45.5% completion, 32.7 EPA, 45.5% success
- All 4 Giants QBs: 363 yds, 4 TD, 4 INT, 48.5 rating, 20% completion, -11.7 EPA, 20% success
This is a Malik Nabers tweet
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) May 19, 2025
Puka Nacua was on his way to a video game-type season last year, but injuries prevented him from reaching that level. He averaged the third-most fantasy PPG at the position (18.8) and receiving yards per game (90). He led all receivers in fantasy points per route and yards per route. He was the clear focal point of the Rams' offense, as he was targeted on 39.1 percent of his routes last year, the highest in any season in the Next Gen Stats era (2016).
Nacua has consistently put up elite numbers since entering the NFL. The only two things to prevent him from putting up truly video game-like numbers are health and touchdowns. We cannot predict health. Nacua has just nine touchdowns in his two NFL seasons. It is possible that Davante Adams is the go-to option in the red zone and prevents Nacua from reaching a high touchdown total.
However, touchdowns are somewhat unpredictable, and a great route runner who can go up and catch the ball like Nacua can win in the end zone.
If Nacua is able to stay healthy, his putting up somewhere between eight and 10 touchdowns, perhaps even more, is very much on the table. I will take a WR who has put elite numbers that is tied to Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford any day.
A.J. Brown may seem like a bit of an outlier here, but I believe Brown is being heavily underrated this season. Brown missed four games last season due to injury, which clearly hurt his end-of-season number. He was still on a 17-game pace for 127 targets, 88 catches, 1,411 yards, and nine touchdowns. Chase and Jefferson were the only receivers to top that number.
Going over 1,400 receiving yards is a regular season for Brown. He had done so the two prior years.
Brown’s success rate and catch rate have climbed every year in Philly, reaching career-highs last year. He posted his second-best yards per target and continued being one of the most efficient deep threats in the NFL. Brown put up those numbers despite the Eagles having the highest run play percentage in two years. They naturally should have to throw the ball more this season.
Brown may have the lowest odds of these receivers of putting up video game numbers, but he has the best odds of any second-round receiver. All it may take is the Eagles throwing more than they did last season.
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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