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Zach's outfield fantasy baseball sleepers and 2025 breakout candidates. His favorite undervalued outfielders to target for fantasy baseball drafts based on ADP.
Since every team Major League Baseball team features multiple outfielders, it's typically a deep and rich fantasy baseball position. Some of the best batters in fantasy baseball come from the very top of the position rankings, but there are also some great fantasy baseball sleepers and undervalued options to target late in your drafts as you fill out your roster.
Every year, exciting new talents emerge at the outfield position, so it's very important to stay on top of who is earning playing time and what prospects are ready to make a splash this season. Sometimes players make an instant impact upon arrival from the minor leagues, but there are also players who have been around a while who have breakout seasons and take their game to the next level. For some players, it's an offseason swing change that makes the difference, while others try new plate approaches, and still others just find a way to stay healthy.
There can be many different reasons for fantasy baseball breakout candidates to deliver, but finding the right outfielder at the right price can catapult your team to success. With spring training ongoing, this post will highlight five of my top outfield breakout candidates that I'm watching for this season.
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Kerry Carpenter, Detroit Tigers
The Tigers were one of the biggest surprises in baseball last season, and they'll face the tall task of following up on their exciting second-half and postseason run in 2025. As part of Detroit's "Gritty Tigs," Carpenter had a little bit of a breakout season last year and also got plenty of attention for his clutch delivery in the playoffs.
Carpenter is still available at a discount coming into this year due to his durability concerns, but if he stays healthy, he could have a full breakout year. Last year, he had a lumbar spine stress fracture, which limited him to just 87 regular-season games before his balky hamstring became the storyline for him in the ALDS against the Guardians.
In his 87 games, "Kerry Bonds" hit .284 with 18 home runs and a .390 wOBA. He posted an impressive .303 ISO and 160 wRC+. He also established new career highs with a 46.4 percent hard-hit rate and a 17.7 percent barrel rate, per Statcast.
Hitters who hit a ball the opposite way at least 415 feet last year
1. Kerry Carpenter
2. Shohei Ohtani
3. Rafael Devers
4. Teoscar Hernandez
5. Michael Harris II
6. Juan Soto
7. Nolan Gorman
8. Ketel Marte
9. Julio RodriguezThe furthest hit oppo ball in play: pic.twitter.com/IE7EZupr8R
— Jon Anderson (@JonPgh) February 10, 2025
Carpenter especially thrived against righties last season, hitting 17 of his 18 homers while hitting .305 with a .414 wOBA in the split. The Tigers could end up putting on the strong side of a platoon if he struggles against lefties, but there's also plenty of room for the 27-year-old to improve against southpaws and become a more well-rounded producer.
If you build with Carpenter this season, you're counting on him staying healthy, but if he does, he could emerge as one of the top power bats in baseball.
Jasson Dominguez, New York Yankees
The Yankees and their fans have been waiting for Dominguez's arrival for a few years, and it looks like 2025 will finally be the year that the 22-year-old gets a full-time everyday job in the Bronx. There have even been reports that he could be the Yankees' leadoff hitter, which would make his value skyrocket even higher.
Depending on your format and league setup, you may not get too much of a discount on Dominguez since he's so well-known, but his ceiling is so high that it's still worth considering him, even at a premium price.
Last year, Dominguez struggled with some health issues, playing only 74 total games. Most of those games were at Triple-A, and in 58 minor-league games, he hit .314 with 11 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a promising .392 wOBA.
He played 18 games in MLB but hit just .179 with two homers and a .285 wOBA. In that limited time, he showed his potential on the basepaths with five stolen bases in five attempts.
He could step right into the void left by the departure of Juan Soto and give a huge boost to the Yankee offense. He definitely looks ready to roll in the early workouts for New York:
Martian Mash! 👽 Jasson Domínguez homers off Carlos Rodón: pic.twitter.com/prtLpTupLb
— Bryan Hoch ⚾️ (@BryanHoch) February 17, 2025
There's definitely some injury risk and also the risk that he ends up needing more time in the minor leagues, but there's so much dual-threat upside with Dominguez that he's impossible to ignore.
If he leads off, he could be one of the top outfielders in baseball, with run production, home runs, and stolen bases stacking up quickly. Even if he starts lower in the lineup, he could progress as the season goes along if he stays healthy.
Michael Toglia, Colorado Rockies
The Rockies may use Toglia mostly at first base this season, but he comes with dual eligibility, which helps him fit onto even more fantasy rosters. Toglia is a switch-hitter who flashed some serious power potential last season, but he needs his batting average and plate approach to progress to have a true breakout in 2025.
Last year, in his first extended time with the Rockies, Toglia hit 25 homers in 116 games while also tacking on 10 stolen bases. He only hit .218 but did have a .238 ISO and a .329 wOBA. He ranked in the top 10 percent of qualified hitters in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Michael Toglia is destined for 30+ bombs in 2025 and I can’t wait to watch it go down
In the top 9% of the MLB in xSLG, EV, Barrel%, and Hard-Hit%
pic.twitter.com/Z4kbNP1exn— Overdue Sports (@OverdueSports) December 30, 2024
While his overall numbers are a little one-dimensional with his low batting average and high strikeout rate, his splits actually show solid progress as the season went on. He started very slow, with a batting average of just .106 in March and April and .197 in the first half. He was significantly better after the All-Star break, with a .235 batting average and .336 wOBA.
One big part of that split was that his walk rate almost doubled from 7.8 percent in the first half to 14.7 percent in the second half. His strikeout rate was still over 30 percent, but he was much more willing to work a walk.
Not only did splits from the first and second halves show progress, but there also appears to be much more juice available for Toglia at Coors Field. He hit 17 of his 25 home runs on the road, posting a .328 wOBA and 110 wRC+. With half his games coming at elevation again this season, he could end up with even more home runs due to positive regression.
Toglia isn't nearly as well-known as Carpenter or Dominguez, so you should be able to grab him late as a sleeper who has the potential for a huge breakout. Even if his batting average and strikeout rate lag, his power should be able to make up for it.
TJ Friedl, Cincinnati Reds
While it's no Coors Field, Great American Ballpark is a very hitter-friendly place to find some offense, especially in the middle of the summer. The Reds lineup should be a solid one to target as well, which is one of the reasons I like Friedl to have a very nice bounce-back year and end up as a breakout in the outfield.
He appeared to be on the verge of a breakout when he hit .279 in 2023 with 18 homers, 27 stolen bases, a .189 ISO, and a .353 wOBA. Unfortunately for him and the Reds, though, 2024 did not go according to plan.
He suffered a broken wrist in spring training and a broken thumb after being hit by a pitch. He also battled a recurring hamstring injury that slowed him down on the basepaths.
Despite all the injury woes, he still showed upside. His batting average dipped to .226, but he still had 13 home runs and nine stolen bases.
His BABIP plummeted from .308 in 2023 to .229 in 2024, so he's due for some positive regression in that category based on the league average of around .300. His xwOBA actually went up from 2023 to 2024 when he had a .292 xwOBA.
The Reds traded Jonathan India this offseason, which could open up the leadoff spot for Friedl, at least against right-handed pitching.
Also, this past offseason, Friedl went through a whole new offseason program in an effort to stay healthier. He profiles like the gritty gamers that typically excel under new manager Terry Francona, so Friedl could be in for a delayed breakout this year if he can stay healthy.
TJ Friedl finally got healthy in late July and stayed healthy through the end of the year. During that stretch (230 PA), Friedl posted:
.230/.307/.390
89 wRC+
14.3 K%/7.8 BB%Not terrible numbers, but also not what he was in 2023. Looking deeper, he ran a .228 BABIP during…
— Bryce Spalding (@bryce_spalding) January 16, 2025
Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox lineup is a little crowded after they signed Alex Bregman, but they gave Rafaela a huge contract last season, and the 24-year-old should be able to fit into the lineup every day, especially since he brings excellent defense and plenty of positional versatility.
If you need a player to provide depth across multiple roster slots late in your draft, Rafaela is a great option to consider since he has the potential to continue to progress at the plate.
Last year was Rafaela's first full season in the majors. His .246 batting average, .286 wOBA, and .143 ISO weren't all that exciting, and his 79 wRC+ was well below average. However, there were some positive signs.
In his 152 games, Rafaela did have 15 home runs and 19 stolen bases while scoring 70 runs and picking up 75 RBI. He reduced his strikeout rate from 31.5 percent in 2023 to 26.4 percent in 2024 and also improved that number significantly from the first half (27.4 percent) to the second half (24.9 percent).
He had a rough start and a rough finish to the season, but he showed high upside in a 64-game stretch in the middle of the summer in which he hit .314 with six home runs, nine stolen bases, and a .343 wOBA backed up by a 39.8 percent hard-hit rate.
#RedSox Manager Alex Cora on Ceddane Rafaela’s plate discipline in 2024: “He was good in the big moments. Now we need every at-bat to be a big moment. We have to slow it down. That’s the most important thing.”
Says he thinks Rafaela will benefit from having Alex Bregman around…
— Red Sox Nation Stats (@RSNStats) February 19, 2025
The Red Sox are committed to leaving Rafaela in center field as much as possible this year to allow him to focus on working on his offense. He bulked up his strength training to add muscle in Miami and also adjusted his batting stance with a small leg kick and his hands starting in a lower position.
With those few tweaks and a good spot in a loaded lineup, Rafaela could be in store for a breakout season as his bat catches up with his glove work in Boston.
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