Adam Koffler's Fantasy Football League-Losing Picks: 5 Early-Round Draft Avoids for 2025

Adam Koffler's players to avoid in the first four rounds of 2025 fantasy football leagues. His early-round fantasy draft avoids and busts, including Saquon Barkley, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and more.

You can't win your fantasy leagues in the first few rounds, but you can certainly lose them. It's not always easy to be bold and go against the grain, but I'll try to do just that in this article.

I've highlighted five players I believe are overvalued at their current average draft position (ADP). These are talented football players, but they are not worth their hefty price tags this season.

It won't be easy, but you'll want to avoid these early-round league-losing picks in 2025.

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

Saquon Barkley - RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Underdog ADP: 4.3 (RB2)

Last season, I notoriously faded Saquon in his first year with the Eagles. We all know how that turned out!

But in 2024, he was coming off the board in the early second round. This season, you need to spend a top-5 pick on Mr. Barkley. Let me tell you why that's just too rich for my blood.

First off, the Eagles ran the ball a league-high 56.3% of the time last season. The only other teams to run the ball over 50% of the time were the Ravens and Packers. In 2023, no team ran the ball more than half of the time. It's rare.

That led to a career-high 436 carries (including playoffs) for Barkley in 2024. His previous career-high was 313 carries back in 2022.

I won't sit here and say he's due for regression "just because he rushed 436 times last season." But what I will point to is the likelihood that the Eagles won't be able to give Saquon as many carries due to more competitive game scripts. New OC Kevin Patullo even mentioned his workload would be "very game-specific" in 2025.

"If we have to limit, we have to limit," said Eagles RBs coach Jemal Singleton. "There are times where he's going to get in, he's going to get a bunch of carries, and there's gonna be other times where he doesn't."

Last season, the Eagles went 14-3 and won six games by double-digit points. They attempted fewer than 25 passes in nine of their 17 games. In 2025, the Eagles are only double-digit point favorites in two games and over a 7-point favorite in three more games.

With an implied point differential of 70 points in 2025 (compared to an actual point differential of 160 points in 2024), one can reasonably expect the Eagles to run less and pass more this season.

Make no mistake about it, Barkley was incredible last year, but 80% of his fantasy points came on the ground vs. through the air. In a full PPR league, a target is worth ~2.74x what a carry is worth.

In fantasy football, we want our running backs involved in the passing game. In his first year with the Eagles, Barkley was not heavily involved in the passing game. He garnered a career low 43 targets and ranked just 21st among running backs in target share (9.6%).

For comparison, he ranked sixth among running backs in target share (14.5%) in his last two years with the Giants. Unfortunately, with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, Barkley's target share is unlikely to ever match what it was in New York.

By taking Saquon with a top-5 pick in 2025, you're banking on another league-high run rate, lots of very positive game scripts, 1,500+ rushing yards, and double-digit touchdowns.

For what it's worth, Jalen Hurts has better odds to score the most regular-season rushing TDs (+800) this season than Barkley (+1000).

Can it happen? Sure. Am I willing to make that bet coming off of a 482-touch season going into his age-28 season? Probably not.

Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR, Detroit Lions

Underdog ADP: 11.6 (WR7)

Here's another instance of "don't hate the player, hate the ADP." Look up consistency in the dictionary, and you're likely to find a picture of St. Brown. But things could look a bit different for ARSB and the Lions' offense in 2025.

St. Brown was asked about new OC John Morton's offense back in June. "Having to learn new plays, new formations, because I was just so used to the same plays, I already knew what to do without even looking. Now I actually gotta study up."

He's not the only one who has to study up. That goes for all of the skill position players. However, we're paying a premium for Amon-Ra's consistency over the last three seasons.

St. Brown finished the 2024 season as the WR5 on a per-game basis despite ranking just 19th among wideouts in expected fantasy points per game (per Fantasy Points Data).

His production came in large part due to his 12 touchdowns on 141 targets. He was second among receivers in red zone targets with 31. Despite similar volume in 2022 and 2023, St. Brown averaged just 22 red zone targets in those two seasons.

This offseason, we're hearing an extremely loud drumbeat for fourth-year wideout Jameson Williams. It's louder than it's ever been before, and Dan Campbell isn't shy about letting you know it.

🥁 Jamo 🥁 pic.twitter.com/wL4P92o7Ig

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) July 26, 2025

Campbell also told reporters back in June that a lot of the focal point of Morton's new offense was Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta. He mentioned honing in on their versatility. He also mentioned Williams and Gibbs as two guys who specifically stood out this spring.

As far as Gibbs is concerned, it appears as if the Lions want to maximize his talent as a receiver as well as a ball-carrier. That's not great for St. Brown either.

In the last two seasons, Gibbs has ranked top-5 among running backs in targets per route run. Simply put, when he runs routes, he earns targets. If he's running more routes in 2025, he's likely taking targets away from St. Brown.

So, where does that leave Amon-Ra? Well, right now, you have to pay a premium first-round pick to find out.

With Williams ascending, LaPorta healthy, and Gibbs likely to see more targets, St. Brown looks like a risky pick in the back-end of Round 1.

Instead, give me Brian Thomas Jr., Drake London, and A.J. Brown, all of whom go after Amon-Ra in fantasy drafts.

Davante Adams - WR, Los Angeles Rams

Underdog ADP: 29.3 (WR16)

Adams has been one of the best in the business in the last decade. But he's now 32 years old and playing on his third team in the last two years.

He's also playing alongside arguably the best receiver he's ever played with in Puka Nacua.

Last season, when Nacua was finally healthy (Weeks 10-17 and playoffs), he led all wideouts in target share (34.7%), targets per route run (0.37), first downs per route run (0.152), and first-read target share (43.6%), per Fantasy Points Data. That was with a healthy Cooper Kupp.

Last season, Adams was the apple of Aaron Rodgers' eye in New York, pacing teammate Garrett Wilson in first-read target share (35.1% vs. 29.3%), target share (28% vs. 22.8%), and targets per route run (0.29 vs. 0.23).

In 2025, with Nacua already having a connection with Matthew Stafford, it wouldn't be surprising to see him leap Adams in a bunch of these metrics. That will undoubtedly limit Adams' upside.

Speaking of Stafford, he's not practicing right now due to back soreness. Sean McVay considers him "week-to-week." But every day he's not at practice is another day he's not developing chemistry with Adams.

Davante Adams admits it's "not easy" being without Matthew Stafford at training camp but he doesn't sound worried

"We've got plenty of time" https://t.co/1IValHRMNv

— Cameron DaSilva (@camdasilva) July 28, 2025

Adams didn't necessarily show signs of hitting that receiver age cliff last season. In fact, it's commendable how well he performed with the Jets alongside Wilson.

However, it'd be naive to think Rodgers wasn't locked in on one of his best friends in the business.

Stafford and Nacua already have an unbreakable connection built over the last two years. As a result, Adams won't be favored like he was in New York.

Instead of worrying about how Adams will fare in Los Angeles at 32 years old, you can instead take shots on young up-and-comers like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Xavier Worthy, and Tetairoa McMillan a handful of picks later.

Breece Hall - RB, New York Jets

Underdog ADP: 33.8 (RB12)

Over the last two seasons, Hall has averaged 18.3 opportunities per game (13.1 carries, 5.2 targets).

In 2024, only Alvin Kamara and De'Von Achane averaged more than five targets per game. In 2023, it was just Kamara, Hall, and Austin Ekeler.

As you can see, not many running backs have seen as much volume in the passing game as Hall. It sounds like new head coach Aaron Glenn wants that to continue, but realistically, how many more targets could he get per game? At what expense to his rushing workload?

The constant drumbeat from Jets camp on second-year back Braelon Allen has been loud. The way Glenn talks about him is likely indicative of an increased workload from his rookie season.

Aaron Glenn on Braelon Allen:#Jets

"Big, physical, tough. He's got a worksman mentality: doesn't say much, he just wants to work. Really good teammate, understands the situation that we're all in when it comes to how we're gonna progress with this team, & he's not afraid to go… pic.twitter.com/PyhvwVIcp2

— Harrison Glaser (@NYJetsTFMedia) July 28, 2025

As a rookie, Allen averaged just 5.4 rush attempts per game. Compare that to David Montgomery (Allen's comp in Glenn's offense), who averaged 13.2 rush attempts per game in 2024.

The Lions are much better than the Jets, but it shouldn't be lost on anyone that Montgomery averaged just 1.5 fewer carries than Gibbs last season.

It sounds like that's Glenn's vision in New York. They will (try) to run the ball a ton.

But that added running doesn't only include Allen (on top of Hall), it also includes new QB Justin Fields.

In his six starts for the Steelers last season, Fields accounted for a whopping 63.6% of the team's carries inside the 5-yard line. Hall was fifth among running backs in percentage of team carries inside five (80%), per Fantasy Points Data. Something has to give.

Between Fields and Allen, Hall is bound to lose valuable work at the goal line. That's reflected in his rushing touchdown odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, where Fields has better odds to score over 5.5 touchdowns than Hall (-114 for Fields vs. -102 for Hall).

The more Fields runs, the less he throws, which means fewer targets for everyone in the offense. That includes Hall, who needs as many targets as possible to return value if he's not scoring touchdowns.

Not to mention, he might be feeling like the forgotten man with the new regime in town. "I wasn't drafted by them, I'm not their guy."

Let someone else deal with the week-to-week headache that will come with drafting Hall in 2025.

Terry McLaurin - WR, Washington Commanders

Underdog ADP: 35.8 (WR18)

McLaurin wants a new contract, and rightfully so. He's gone over 1,000 yards in each of his last five seasons and has been as consistent as they come at the position.

He wants to be paid like a top-10 wide receiver, but Washington appears to have its reservations about that, considering a deal has yet to be struck as of the publishing of this article.

McLaurin has a current ADP of WR18, going off the board at the back-end of the third or early in the fourth round. He's being taken above guys like Rashee Rice, Mike Evans, Worthy, McMillan, D.J. Moore, Jameson Williams, George Pickens, and Courtland Sutton.

Realistically, a case could be made that each of those receivers is a better fantasy asset than McLaurin, who had never scored double-digit touchdowns in his career until last season.

In 2024, he scored 13 touchdowns on 117 targets. That's a touchdown every nine targets. The year before, he scored a touchdown every 33 targets. Puka Nacua, one of the league's premier receivers on a great offense, scored a touchdown every 35.3 targets last season.

As you can see, touchdowns are mostly random. McLaurin's 15.8 fantasy points per game (which includes his 78 points from touchdowns) were good for 16th among wide receivers in 2024.

However, per Fantasy Points Data, he ranked just 27th in expected fantasy points per game (13.6). Expected fantasy points are the number of fantasy points a player should have scored based on their opportunities.

So what that's telling us is that McLaurin's production from 2024 is a bit inflated from the touchdowns, a stat that isn't sticky year-over-year.

With Jayden Daniels under center, McLaurin also ranked 34th in target share (21.7%), 30th in first-read target share (26.8%), and 25th in yards per route run (2.19).

The peripheral metrics outside of touchdowns should be more than enough to scare you off of his wildly overinflated ADP in 2025.

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