RADIO
Hello and welcome to my official course and tournament preview piece for the 2024 Valspar Championship, which will once again be played at the familiar Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, FL. The goal each week is to provide a comprehensive and in-depth look at the specs of the golf course to help you best understand historical trends and stat profiles that have proven to be indicators of success at this tournament in the past. The golf course is the ever-changing variable week to week on the PGA Tour and it is pivotal to understand the specs in great detail while researching the tournament.
We have a solid amount of data and course analytics to properly make some assessments regarding advantageous player skill sets and course setup specifics. The Copperhead Course has hosted this PGA Tour event since 2000, with lead course superintendent Ryan Stewart in charge of setting up the course for the last 17 years. It has created a consistent environment where we can use historical data to help predict what will happen this week and the players best suited for success.
Here is everything you need to know about the Copperhead Course.
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An Introduction to the Course
The Copperhead Course was designed in 1971 by Larry Packard and it remains one of the most unique golf courses that you will find in all of Florida. Pros and patrons over the years have consistently remarked that once on the property, you feel like you have been dropped into the Carolina Pines rather than sitting just a mile from the gulf coast of Florida. There have been a few modest renovations in the last 50 years to bring the course up to today's standard and add length in the necessary spots to continue hosting the PGA Tour players.
This will be the final leg of the Florida swing, but as I mentioned, the feel and playability are atypical of Florida golf. We have generous sloping greens that feature a substantial Poa trivialis overseed this time of year, which allows them to actually run much smoother and more predictable by eliminating the Bermuda grain.
This course annually plays as one of the top-10 toughest venues on the PGA Tour schedule and provides an excellent examination of overall ballstriking and long iron play, despite not being overly long on the scorecard.
A par-71 layout that features five par-3s and four par-5s is certainly a unique scorecard that we don't see anywhere else on Tour throughout the season. Overall, the players really like this course, and I believe it provides a solid preparation week as players gear up to take on Augusta National next month. It is much more narrow, but some of the fairway undulations, green complexes, and increased long iron play draw plenty of correlations.
Check the yardage book: Innisbrook's Copperhead Course for the 2024 Valspar Championship https://t.co/kasJ3vS0HY pic.twitter.com/tBNBgyj3Vl
— Golfweek (@golfweek) March 19, 2024
Recent Winners
2023: Taylor Moore -10 : 50/1
2022: Sam Burns -17 : 20/1
2021: Sam Burns -17 : 80/1
2019: Paul Casey -8 : 25/1
2018: Paul Casey -10 : 25/1
2017: Adam Hadwin -14 : 125/1
The Scorecard - Valspar Championship
Course Specs
For starters, one of the most unique things about this layout is the five par-3s, three of which come in the final six holes. They are long and demanding, ranging from 195 yards to 235 yards. There are also four par-5s on the course. The first hole is the easiest they will play all day long, reaching only 560 yards.
It is one of those holes where if you do not walk away with at least birdie, you then feel like you are definitely losing ground on the field. The par-5 fifth hole annually plays as one of the most difficult par-5s on Tour. It is 600+ yards straight up the hill with a narrow, windy fairway that is tough to score on.
The Copperhead course is heavily lined with trees and a parkland-style golf course. It does not possess the abundance of water hazards we have seen the last couple of weeks on the other Florida courses on Tour, but it still remains a stern test. There are a number a tricky nuances and characteristics that make the Copperhead Course tough, just in a different way. It will be interesting to see how fast and firm the golf course plays this week given the heavy rain that southwest Florida has received in the last couple of months.
The greens are slightly larger than Tour average at 5,822 square feet and run extremely true with newly enacted Poa trivialis overseed. Other courses we have seen recently with the same type of greens include TPC Scottsdale and TPC Sawgrass. The bunkers are challenging and the course features 74 total throughout the 18 holes. One thing to note, the rough is once again "up" this year and they brought the rough closer to the greens, minimizing the intermediate cut between rough and green from 72" to just 21".
You will hear a ton of talk this week about the infamous "Snake Pit." It is the closing three-hole stretch that is one of the most difficult closing stretches on the schedule. There will be two long and challenging par 4s which play longer than 450 yards, with the renowned 215-yard 17th hole sandwiched in between them.
In the final round of the 2023 Valspar Championship, each of the closing three holes played +0.2 over par. It's hold on for dear life and try to make pars to finish.
Statistical Considerations
It should come as no surprise that much like every week on the PGA Tour, the biggest corollary metric to success is approach play. Six of the last seven winners of the Valspar have finished the week seventh or better in the field in strokes gained on Approach. In terms of Approach, you will hit more long irons at the Copperhead Course than most weeks. More than one-third of all approach shots come from the range of 175-225 yards, which is roughly 10% more than Tour average.
I am also putting more emphasis this year on Driving Accuracy and Good Drives Gained. Last season, they made the rough 3.75 inches high from 3.0 inches in previous years. It may not sound like much, but it makes a big difference in being less predictable for players who miss the fairway. This, combined with the extra rain in southwest Florida, means I expect the overseeded rough to be lush and will make playing from the fairway a big advantage in 2024.
Another somewhat sneaky stat that I am factoring in heavily is around the green game. This is mostly due to the difficult nature of the course and the fact that players on average only hit the green in regulation about 56% of the time. That is roughly 10% fewer greens in regulation than Tour average. Players are going to miss fairways, which means they are going to miss greens, so the ability to get yourself up and down to make par is key.
Lastly, and unsurprisingly, you have to hole putts from 4-10 feet. Due to the undulations and speed of the greens at the Copperhead Course, it is one of the most difficult courses we see all year in terms of made putt percentage from 4-10 feet. Players who have confidence in that particular range and feel comfortable on these types of green surfaces are definitely in a better position to have a good putting week.
Approach shot distribution from 2023 at the Valspar Championship, via Data Golf:
Stat Radar Plot at the Copperhead Course, via Data Golf:
Best Player Course Fit Rankings for the Valspar Championship:
- Justin Thomas
- Nick Taylor
- Doug Ghim
- Victor Perez
- Greyson Sigg
- Matt Wallace
- Brian Harman
- Eric Cole
- Beau Hossler
- Maverick McNealy
*Based on last 36 rounds of player data.
