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Green Bay Packers running back AJ Dillon has captured the imaginations of fantasy managers ever since he was selected by the team in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Dillon has been stuck in a timeshare with star running back Aaron Jones, but he's provided solid standalone value as his "backup" and has produced a few boom weeks early on in his career.
However, thanks to a lackluster showing in 2022 and the Packers' offseason decisions and moves, he is now trending down the dynasty rankings ahead of the 2023 season. It's not as if Dillon has produced far below his preseason ADP during his career, but it's becoming more and more apparent that the 250-pound back's true upside may never be unlocked.
In this edition of dynasty risers and fallers, we'll dive into Dillon's 2022 season, his dynasty trade value and market, and his 2023 fantasy football outlook.
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Dillon had a solid start to his 2022 campaign in the Packers' season opener against the Minnesota Vikings. He rushed 10 times for 45 yards and a touchdown, adding five catches for 46 yards on six targets. His performance would be good for an RB10 finish in half-PPR formats, but it would turn out to be his only RB1 finish until Week 12.
From Week 2 to 5, Dillon rushed 53 times for 200 yards (3.8 YPC) and zero touchdowns. He also caught only four passes for 23 yards over the four-game stretch. During his span, he averaged 6.1 fantasy points per game – coming in at the RB42 spot overall. His drafters knew he wouldn't provide RB1 upside every week, but he failed to post better than an RB31 finish and placed as low as the RB61 spot in the early part of the year after his promising Week 1.
He'd somewhat turn things around in Week 6 against the New York Jets, rushing 10 times for 41 yards and catching four of his six targets for 11 yards – good for an RB25 finish. Still, it was nothing to write home about. Unfortunately, it would prove to be another one-off decent performance in the fantasy point column.
His next five games saw him total just 181 rushing yards and four catches for 29 yards. He went scoreless over those five weeks and posted a disastrous 4.6 fantasy points per game. He became a clear must-bench at this point in the season after being a decent weekly flex play for most of his career.
However, Dillon managers who stayed patient would finally see a return on their investment in the late part of the fantasy season. He posted finishes of the RB12, RB4, RB9, RB19, and RB21 spots to round out the fantasy-relevant schedule. Over the final five weeks, he was the RB12, rushing for 270 yards and two touchdowns and catching 11 of his 14 targets for 97 yards.
In summary, he started the year with a promising showing, tailed off mightily, and was unstartable during the chunk of the year, then delivered for fantasy managers when it mattered most. All that said, he was a fine Best Ball format running back, but his lack of consistency made him a liability in traditional start 'em, sit 'em leagues.
Dillon's final numbers read 186 carries for 770 yards (4.1 YPC), seven rushing touchdowns, 43 targets, 28 receptions, and 206 receiving yards. He finished as the season-long RB25 in half-PPR scoring. He actually rushed for two more touchdowns than in 2021, but his totals regressed in all other statistics.
Per Playerprofiler.com data, among running backs, Dillon ranked 42nd in true yards per carry (4.1), 48th in yards per touch (4.6), 43rd in breakaway run rate (3.2%), 44th in yards created per touch (2.25), and 54th in fantasy points per carry/target (0.73).
His season wasn't far below his RB24 ADP, but his future doesn't look as bright as it once did -- as we'll dive into below.
AJ Dillon Dynasty Value/Market
While player valuations are going to vary widely from league to league, KeepTradeCut.com is a helpful resource for getting an idea of what a player's value might be. These crowdsourced rankings have Dillon as the dynasty RB28 and the 100th most valuable player or draft pick overall (single-QB leagues). At this time last year (April 25), Dillon was valued as the RB21.
He is now ranked alongside aging wideouts like Mike Evans and DeAndre Hopkins as well as young unproven running backs like Tyler Allgeier, Khalil Herbert, and James Cook.
AJ Dillon Dynasty Value
Some of Dillon's value was tied to the potential for Aaron Jones to be cut following the 2022 season, but that's now not expected to happen. Additionally, future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers is on his way out of Green Bay, meaning the Packers will turn to Jordan Love – who is a total wild card. If Love is a mediocre signal-caller in year one of his tenure, it'll spell bad news for Dillon's fantasy production.
Put simply, Love's play will determine how many red zone and scoring opportunities the Packers will have – which are largely tied to Dillon's fantasy value. As the RB2 in his offense, he needs touchdowns and efficiency to thrive and be worth rostering in fantasy football. With all the uncertainty, his value has taken a solid hit.
2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
In early FFPC draft ADP, Dillon is coming off the board at the RB34 spot (101.57 overall). His 10-spot drop in ADP reflects his dynasty dip. In Best Ball formats, he's worth the selection at the RB34 spot since he won't be counted on to provide weekly fantasy production.
While many expect Love to tank the offense in 2022, there's also a chance he far exceeds expectations. If that happens, Dillon could be a great value among RBs. Green Bay wasn't an elite offense in 2022 anyway, ranking 14th in points per game (21.8). That said, there's even a chance the offense improves as promising wideout Christian Watson enters his second season and Green Bay adds more skill-player help in the upcoming 2023 NFL Draft.
There's also a chance the 28-year-old Jones could miss time during the 2023 campaign. Jones has remained healthy and productive throughout his career, but as running backs inch closer to age 30, the likelihood of missing time increases. Dillon has league-winning upside if Jones has to miss chunks of the year – and he'll surely enter Best Ball lineups as the clear starter in the absence of Jones. Dillon's price is as low as ever, so having some exposure to him is probably a good idea.
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