X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Second Base Draft Busts for 2022 Fantasy Baseball

Eric Samulski's fantasy baseball draft busts at second base. These 2B options are overvalued based on ADP and should be faded in 2022 fantasy baseball drafts.

When it comes to successful fantasy baseball drafts, identifying risk is as important as identifying value. We focus so much on "sleepers" and "breakouts" but often forget to really think about the players we should be avoiding. If the goal for a good draft is to build a complete team but also to hit on value with as many picks as possible, then making one or two "home run" picks might be flashy but might not be nearly as important as simply avoiding players who are highly unlikely to meet their value, sometimes known as "busts."

It's important that we discuss the term "bust" before we dive into the details of this article. Too often people hear the word "bust" and think "sucks." While that can sometimes be the case, when we talk about draft value, we're really just using the term "bust" to mean somebody who will not approach that value or is not worth the cost of the pick you need to use to take him. Some of those players will be guys who I would happily draft at a different cost. For example, I've repeatedly talked about how I don't think Randy Arozarena is worth a pick in the low 50s. He's now going pick 64 and has a max pick of 94. If he's available for me in the 80s, I would happily grab him, even though I've discussed him as a "fade" earlier. In short, think of "bust" here as "bad value."

The issue with "bad value" at second base is that there isn't really a ton of it. That's not because 2B has a ton of studs, even though it does have a few good players, it's because 2B is not a position with a lot of top-end talent. Ozzie Albies is the only 2B going really early in drafts, and then you have a group of guys going between pick 75-90 who I think are fairly priced (Jose Altuve, Brandon Lowe, Jorge Polanco, and Ketel Marte). Most of the other 2B options are guys who are going a few rounds later, which makes it harder for them to be bad value since the value itself is so low. However, we do have a few guys I would avoid at their current cost, so we'll dive in here. All ADP is from NFBC online drafts from March 12-26.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Jazz Chisholm Jr. - Miami Marlins

ADP: 72.87
Eric's ADP: 121

Nothing encapsulates the nature of this MLB offseason more than the fact that I tweeted a comparison of Randy Arozarena and Jazz Chisholm back in January and now I’m telling you Jazz is going to be a bust. Hear me out, it’s all about draft cost. At the time, I was suggesting that Arozarena was going too high for me with an ADP in the 50s, but now I’m going to make a similar argument about Jazz. 

Let’s start with the basics of why he makes this list. If you take ATC projections (the most accurate projection system of the last few years) and input it into Tanner Bell’s SGP model (this thing is awesome and absolutely worth your money), Chisholm comes out as a $17 player or the 121st ranked player overall. Obviously, 121 is a long way from 72. 

Now, we also know that projection systems, even great ones like ATC, shouldn’t be taken as gospel. Jazz has an intriguing mix of power and speed that’s capable of outproducing his projected line of .248/.303/.425 with 18 home runs and 23 stolen bases. Last year, he had a barrel rate of 8.6% and a max exit velocity of 112.1 mph, which suggests a hitter who can make contact with authority. We like that. Considering the Marlins also added Joey Wendle, Jorge Soler, and Avisail Garcia to the lineup this offseason, it’s also clear that he will be hitting in a more talented lineup, which means more opportunities for runs and RBIs. 

However, we need to acknowledge the clear flaws. Chisholm is a free swinger with a 33.4% O-Swing and 46.8% total swing rate. When you pair that with a 12.5% (SwStr%) and just a 73.3% contact rate (39th-percentile in the league), you have some potential problems. Even with his clear skills, there is still too much swing-and-miss in his game to think he will ever help you in batting average. He’s not Joey Gallo, but if you’re planning to draft him, you need to plan around his low average. 

So with all of that said, the real reason you’re drafting Chisholm this high is because of his stolen base upside, and that’s fair. Stolen bases are hard to come by nowadays, so Jazz’s 23 projected stolen bases are appealing, especially when it comes with potential power. However, I also know that I can get the exact same 23 steals from Tommy Edman at pick 90. If we want to wait even longer, I can get 14 projected steals from Kolten Wong with a potential .267/.333/.410 triple-slash and a projected 12 steals from Jean Segura with a .281/.337/.423 way later in the draft, both of whom hit in way better lineups as well.

Obviously, you're taking a hit in power there, and we know Jazz has the potential of a former top prospect, but I'm also cautioning you not to assume that potential upside is a sure thing. It's a chance just in the same way Josh Rojas going for 15-15 at pick 250 is a chance. You're just taking your chance on Chisholm at a pick that basically requires that he overperform all of his projections by a considerable amount. Given the depth at 2B later in the draft and the clear holes in his offensive approach, I think he’s being over-drafted based on hype and should be closer to pick 100, even if you build in the scarcity of steals. 

UPDATE: After submitting this article, Jazz hit ninth for the Marlins in a lineup that featured tons of regular starters. It was against a left-handed pitcher, so it's fair to wonder if the team will hit Jazz ninth when he faces a lefty. That's not good, as it means fewer plate appearances and chances for RBIs and runs. Also, if he gets on base with the best hitters in the lineup coming up behind him, the team may be less inclined for him to steal and run into an out. 

 

Ty France, Seattle Mariners

ADP: 161
Eric's ADP: 210

Wait, Ty France is a starter on a good Mariners offense and he has multi-position eligibility at 1B/2B, so why is he listed as a bust? It all comes down to limited category help. France does not run, so right off the bat, he is only going to help you in four categories. Getting no speed from a middle infield position is really tough given the scarcity of steals, as we mentioned above. However, France is also just a 20 home run hitter, which is good for the middle infield but bad for first base. So France doesn’t give you enough speed for a 2B spot and not enough power for a 1B spot. 

Obviously, that’s an over-simplification, but let’s dive in. France is known as an offense-first player, but he had just a 6.8% barrel rate last year, which was just 42nd-percentile in all of baseball. His average exit velocity on balls in the air was just 92.5 mph, which was 35th-percentile, and his groundball rate still hovers just under 50%. He makes consistent contact and doesn't swing and miss often, but he's not going to be much more than a 20 HR bat with that profile in that home park. So he's a .270-.280 hitter with solid but not great production all around. 

And now we also get word that new teammate Jesse Winker is taking reps at France's position, likely to help open up at-bats for stud prospect Julio Rodriguez? No. I don't like any of that.

That's why ATC's projections for France feel about right. The model has him for a triple-slash of .272/.345/.439 with 19 home runs, 72 runs, 72 RBIs, no stolen bases. If we take France’s ATC projections and put them into Tanner Bell’s SGP, we get him as a $4.2 player and the 219th player off the board. That’s a far cry from his 161 ADP, and that's assuming he still gets full-time at-bats. At that time in the draft, you really want somebody who is going to take your team to the next level. That’s not Ty France. 

 

Brendan Rodgers, Colorado Rockies

ADP: 179.35
Eric's ADP: 221

I'm usually all for prospects who people have seemingly forgotten about (hello, Keston Hiura and Spencer Howard), but somehow that is not carrying over to Rodgers. That's not to say I don't like him as a player. The 25-year-old is a legit .280 hitter in one of the best hitting environments in all of baseball, but I also believe that he falls squarely in the "better real-life baseball player than fantasy player" category.

Will Rodgers give you a good batting average? Yes. Will he be a .300 hitter? No, I don't think so. He still has a relatively high 36% O-Swing to go along with pretty average quality of contact (6.2% barrel rate and 44th-percentile average exit velocity on balls in the air). He also has a paltry 4.6% walk rate, so he often chases pitches that aren't ones he can do real damage on. The lack of true feel for the strike zone and strength of contact just makes me think that Rodgers tops out around .280-.290, which is certainly usable in both real baseball and fantasy baseball.

However, his inability to really drive the ball in the air or pull it consistently and his 50% groundball rate is going to prevent him from ever being a true home run threat, even with his home park. So if Rodgers is a .280 hitter with 20 home run power and no speed (he has zero major league stolen bases) in a fairly mediocre offense, he's really not giving you tons of fantasy value.

For instance, if you take his ATC Projections (.278/.325/.458 with 18 home runs, 67 Runs, and 68 RBI) and put them into Tanner Bell's SPG spreadsheet, Rodgers is the 275th-ranked player in 12-team 5x5 leagues. If you believe in Rodgers a little more than the projections, and I do, and give him a .285 average, 19 home runs, 70 Runs, and 70 RBI, then he becomes the 221st-ranked player and a $3.65 value. So even by giving him a better season than projections have him down for, he's still being drafted too far ahead of his true talent level.

However, unlike with Ty France, I can see an instance where I would jump Rodgers above my ADP for him given his batting average skill. If my team is in desperate need of batting average, I could see taking Rodgers just before pick 200, maybe in the 190s, but that would be only in certain builds, so I still think he's unlikely to meet the value he's being drafted at, and I currently have zero shares.

 

Quick Hits

There are two players who I think are currently being drafted too high, and that's really just because ADP hasn't really had the tie to adjust since recent trades. However, I just wanted to highlight them here in case you were still using earlier ADP for your drafts or were holding out hope for these two highly popular players.

 Gavin Lux, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 272.87
Eric's ADP: 370

This is the downside to playing on a team that is putting together maybe the most dangerous lineup we've ever seen. With the addition of Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy back and healthy (for now), Lux is on the outside looking in, even with the universal DH. The Dodgers are also using Gavin Lux in the outfield this spring, so there is a chance he can be a backup at multiple positions, but he also has some bench competition in Edwin Rios, who has been crushing the ball this spring, and we also don't really know if Lux will be able to hang defensively in the outfield. As it stands, I just can't draft Lux near pick 300 if he needs injuries in order to be an impactful fantasy player.

 Garrett Hampson, Colorado Rockies

ADP: 281.95
Eric's ADP: 366

I know there are some people who think the Rockies have never really given Hampson a true shot, but I will respectfully disagree. He had 327 plate appearances in 2019 and 494 last year. Over 800 plate appearances is not "no shot." In that time (plus his 2020 season), he's a .240 hitter with a 4.8% barrel rate, 26.4% strikeout rate, and 9.8% HR/FB ratio. Even without metrics, you can see that Hampson is a light-hitting player who doesn't bring much to the table other than speed.

With the Rockies signing Jose Iglesias, Hampson has been sent to the bench where he'll compete for backup at-bats up the middle but might be limited to backing up 2B and SS now that Conner Joe also finds himself on the bench as well and will compete for playing tie at DH and in the corner OF. I expect Hampson's ADP to climb as the weeks go on, but Jose Iglesias was also signed right after the lockout ended, so this ADP should have corrected a little more by now too.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jayden Higgins

Impresses During Minicamp
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

on the Move to Memphis
Cole Anthony

Dealt to the Grizzlies
Seattle Seahawks

DeMarcus Lawrence Making an Impression With his New Team
Isaiah Simmons

Being Used Exclusively as a Linebacker
Tyler Mahle

Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Travis Etienne Jr.

the Jaguars Lead Back?
Luis Robert Jr.

Scratched with Thumb Soreness
Desmond Bane

Traded to Orlando
Byron Buxton

Scratched from Sunday's Lineup
Daniel Jones

the Favorite in Colts QB Competition?
Brendan Donovan

Returns to the Lineup
Steven Adams

Rockets Agree to Three-Year Contract Extension
Royce Lewis

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Ty Dillon

Is a Respectable Cap Flexiblity-Focused DFS Option For Mexico City
Corey Perry

Produces 10th Postseason Goal
Connor McDavid

Scores First Finals Goal
John Hunter Nemechek

Is John Hunter Nemechek Worth Rostering In Mexico City DFS Lineups?
Shohei Ohtani

Blasts Two Homers in Win
Sam Bennett

Nets Another Road Goal in Game 5 Win
Eetu Luostarinen

Earns Two Points Saturday
Michael King

Not Making Progress
Brad Marchand

Pots Two Goals in Game 5 Victory
Jackson Merrill

Removed Early on Saturday
Sergei Bobrovsky

Ties NHL Record with 10th Road Win
Ross Chastain

Trackhouse Racing's Mexico Focus Makes Ross Chastain a Leading Contender for the Win
Kyle Busch

One of Two Past Mexico City Winners in the Field
Ryan Preece

Earns Surprising Front-Row Start
Austin Cindric

Not as Strong of a Road Racer as People Think
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Stronger on Infield Road Courses Than Purpose-Built Ones
Joey Logano

Seemingly Alternating Between Good and Mediocre Races
Brad Keselowski

One of the Few Drivers with Mexico City Experience
Denny Hamlin

Ryan Truex Makes First Cup Series Start Since 2014
Erik Jones

Mexico City Will Likely be a Struggle for Erik Jones
Noah Gragson

Front Row Motorsports' Speed May Make Noah Gragson a Decent DFS Option
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Road Courses Are Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s Worst Track Type
Riley Herbst

Surprisingly Outqualifies 23XI Racing Teammates at Mexico City
Cody Ware

a Very Experienced Road Racer but Still a Long Shot
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen the Heavy Favorite to Win in Mexico City
Christopher Bell

the Chalk DFS Play in Mexico City
Tyler Reddick

Has a Lot of Work To Do To Be Competitive in Mexico
AJ Allmendinger

Struggling to Find Speed in Mexico City
Chris Buescher

Says Car is "Bad Fast" Heading into Mexico City Race
Michael McDowell

Confident Heading into Viva Mexico 250
Giancarlo Stanton

Likely Returning Early Next Week
Spencer Strider

Registers 13 Strikeouts
Hunter Brown

s Records 12 Strikeouts
Emeka Egbuka

"the Talk" of Bucs Minicamp
Royce Lewis

to be Placed on Injured List
Byron Buxton

Exits Early on Saturday
Evander Kane

Drops to Fourth Line Saturday
Kasperi Kapanen

Won't Play on Saturday
Calvin Pickard

Starts Game 5 for Oilers
Jaxson Dart

Working as No. 2 QB During Offseason Workouts
Xavier Gipson

Roster Spot Could be in Jeopardy
Josh Reynolds

the Front-Runner for WR2 Duties
Garrett Wilson

Stock Up This Offseason
Breece Hall

Motivated Going into 2025 Season
Brandon Aiyuk

Making Good Progress From Knee Injury
Keon Coleman

Inconsistent at Minicamp
Mitchell Trubisky

Not a Lock for Backup Job
Dalton Kincaid

Adds Strength and Bulk
James Cook

a Full Participant in Mandatory Minicamp
Tyrese Haliburton

Struggles in Friday's Loss to OKC
Jacob Misiorowski

Expected to Make Next Start
Chet Holmgren

Dominates the Glass in Game 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads the Way in Game 4
Jalen Williams

Has a Quality Showing on Friday Night
Charlie Morton

Continues Good Work With 10 Strikeouts
James Wood

Homers, Drives in Four
Agustín Ramírez

Agustin Ramirez Homers Twice to Snap Skid
Isaac Paredes

Astros Hopeful Isaac Paredes Can Avoid the Injured List
Royce Lewis

Dealing With Hamstring Strain
Kodai Senga

Diagnosed With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain
Gleyber Torres

Goes Deep Twice on Friday
Anthony Richardson

Should be Fine for Training Camp
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option
Kevin Durant

Trade Could Happen in the "Next Few Days"
Cam Akers

Joining Saints
Michael Mayer

to Get More Involved
Aaron Rodgers

DK Metcalf Building Chemistry with Aaron Rodgers
Colston Loveland

Likely to be Primary Tight End
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

Set To Take On Former Champion
Cody Garbrandt

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Cody Brundage

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Alonzo Menifield

Opens Up UFC Atlanta Main Card
Oumar Sy

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Connor Hellebuyck

Wins Vezina And Hart Trophies
Aleksander Barkov

Records Two Power-Play Assists Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Collects Three Points in Thursday's Loss
Matthew Tkachuk

Notches Three Points in Losing Effort
Calvin Pickard

Joins Exclusive List with Thursday's Win
Mattias Ekholm

Logs Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Leon Draisaitl

Delivers Victory in Overtime Thursday
Myles Turner

Playing Through Illness
Reed Sheppard

Will Play in the NBA Summer League
Kevin Durant

Deal Could Come Sooner Rather Than Later
Dorian Finney-Smith

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Jalen Williams

Leads Thunder in Scoring Wednesday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Settles for 24 Points in Game 3 Loss
Pascal Siakam

Does Everything for Pacers Wednesday Night
Tyrese Haliburton

Gets Close to Triple-Double in Game 3 Win
Bennedict Mathurin

Leads All Scorers with 27 Points Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Has Second Offseason Surgery
Jaylen Brown

Undergoes Successful Knee Procedure
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Primed for Another Major Championship Run
Cameron Young

May Struggle at U.S. Open
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Third Major Championship Title
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeks to Avenge Oakmont Collapse
Jordan Spieth

Can Contend at Oakmont
Shane Lowry

a Strong Value Play at U.S. Open
Brooks Koepka

Seeks Another Major Win at Oakmont
Viktor Hovland

Still Can Improve at U.S. Open
Michael Kim

a Boom-or-Bust Value Play at U.S. Open
Russell Henley

Looking to Play the Weekend at Oakmont
Tyrrell Hatton

a Safe Option at U.S. Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Eyeing Third U.S. Open Title
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF