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Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Rowdy Tellez is a fantasy baseball sleeper and draft target in 2021. Frank Ammirante explains why Tellez is a great value pick at his current ADP.
Rowdy Tellez is entering his age-26 season and looks primed for a breakout year. This is an intriguing hitter with tantalizing power and impressive Statcast metrics. He hits in a stacked lineup and favorable ballpark, but fantasy baseball players have shied away because of playing time concerns.
In this article, we'll take a look at Tellez's production to try to determine if his bat is good enough to force his way into this lineup on a regular basis. We'll explore his improvements in the shortened 2020 season to help explain why concerns over playing time have created a buying opportunity.
Let's find out why Tellez is a sleeper for you to target in your fantasy drafts.
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Improvements in 2020
Source: Baseball Savant
| 2019 | 409 PA | 21 HR | 7.1 BB% | 28.4 K% | .227 BA | .293 OBP | .449 SLG |
| 2020 | 127 PA | 8 HR | 8.7 BB% | 15.7 K% | .283 BA | .346 OBP | .540 SLG |
Tellez increased his walk rate by 1.6% and cut his strikeout rate by 12.7%. This was because he chased fewer pitches, reducing his Chase% from 37.2% to 34.2%. He was able to make more contact on pitches in the strike zone, increasing his Z-Contact% from 78.4% to 84.9%. Tellez also connected with more pitches outside of the strike zone, as his O-Contact% improved from 54.7% to 61.4%. So what was the catalyst for these improvements?
| Pitch | 2019 | 2020 | ||
| Fastballs | .382 wOBA | .400 xwOBA | .368 wOBA | .355 xwOBA |
| Breaking | .221 wOBA | .257 xwOBA | .330 wOBA | .371 xwOBA |
| Offspeed | .294 wOBA | .314 xwOBA | .443 wOBA | .333 xwOBA |
Here we see some significant improvement against breaking pitches. Tellez was able to make hard contact on breaking pitches more often in 2020. He also showed the ability to lay off breaking balls out of the zone, as his PutAway% decreased from 27.9% to 12.1%. Tellez improved against offspeed pitches as well, making harder contact and improving his PutAway% from 18.3% to 13.3%.
While these improvements can be partly attributed to the small sample of the 2020 season, we also have to recognize that Tellez only had 482 career plate appearances in the big leagues prior to this year. This could be signs of a young hitter finding his groove at the professional level. Let's delve further into Tellez's Statcast profile to get a better picture of his skills as a power hitter.
Statcast Profile
| Year | AVG Exit Velo | MAX Exit Velo | Barrel% | xBA | xSLG | xwOBA | xwOBAcon |
| 2019 | 90.7 | 114.3 | 13.2 | 0.249 | 0.472 | 0.333 | 0.437 |
| 2020 | 90.7 | 117.4 | 8.4 | 0.273 | 0.490 | 0.356 | 0.391 |
Tellez has shown the ability to crush the baseball in his first two seasons in MLB. He put up 76th percentile exit velocity in 2019 and 79th percentile in 2020. His max exit velocity was 114.3 MPH (36th) in 2019 and 117.4 MPH (2nd) in 2020. Tellez's expected stats also demonstrate his skills in generating hard contact. This is a player who has the ability to hit 35+ home runs if given everyday playing time.
Playing Time Concerns
RotoBaller's Mike Kurland has done a terrific job analyzing Spring Training lineups to project how it will look on Opening Day. Kurland talks about how the Blue Jays love George Springer in the leadoff spot, so Cavan Biggio projects to hit in the lower third in the lineup. This makes it likely that Tellez will find himself anywhere from the sixth-eighth slot in this stacked lineup. This isn't really a concern because the Blue Jays project as one of the better lineups in baseball, so there should be plenty of opportunities for run production.
The real concern lies in the outfield logjam: the Blue Jays have Springer along with Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Randal Grichuk. Grichuk is the worst of the four, but he's still a streaky power hitter who hit 12 homers in 231 plate appearances last season. He makes over $9.3 million per year, which is the third-highest paid hitter on the team. Grichuk has also experience in center field, so he'll likely bump Hernandez or Gurriel to DH whenever he plays, which isn't good news for Tellez.
The good news here is that we're likely to see Grichuk sub in for each of these players, including Springer. This means that Tellez should still see his fair share of plate appearances, especially since he's likely to spell Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at first base. We could also see Gurriel used in a trade with prospects to acquire an ace, as he is the outfielder with the most trade value. A move like this would be huge for Tellez's fantasy value.
2021 Outlook
ATC projects Tellez to slash .258/.326/.488 with 23 home runs in 440 plate appearances. I'm willing to bet on the over on these numbers because I think that as the season progresses, Tellez's talent will win out or the team will make a trade and he'll earn a greater role with the ball club. Tellez currently has a 297.79 ADP in NFBC leagues (since February 1st), behind hitters like Yuli Gurriel. This is because of the playing time concerns. Take advantage of this buying opportunity and target a young power hitter with high upside due to his favorable team context.
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