RADIO
Nick Mariano analyzes the remaining schedules for several high-owned quarterbacks (QB) and whether they'll help or hurt fantasy owners through the 2016 fantasy football playoffs.
Thanksgiving approaches, which means that we’ve got plenty of food, football, family and friends to enjoy (roughly in that order – food first always). This also means that the fantasy football playoffs are bearing down on us, as most of us play in formats that utilize Weeks 14-16 to decide the winner.
Some have already locked up the #1 seed or a first-round bye, but many are fighting tooth and nail to make it into the playoffs. Regardless, all benefit from looking forward. We’re here to check in on some quarterbacks who have some intriguing schedules down the stretch. Will they help you make the playoffs? How about winning the championship once you’re in there? Let’s find out. I’ll list each QB and their RoS schedules -- including Week 17 in italics -- but only commenting on the conventional Week 12-16 window.
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QBs With Favorable Late-Season Schedules
Nota Freakin’ Bene: Matchups are not everything, this is just one tool in the toolbox.
Eli Manning (QB, NYG) - (@CLE, @PIT, DAL, DET, @PHI, @WAS)
Odds are Manning is already owned for this Week 12 matchup against the Browns, but it looks like he’ll be strong in Week 13 at Pittsburgh as well. It’s no secret that Ben Roethlisberger and company perform much better at home, which means Manning and the G-Men will need to keep up. The Steelers’ pass defense is nothing special, sitting at 16th in Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric, even after a dream matchup against the Browns. They're also 30th in the same metric against #1 WRs. Odell Beckham Jr. should feast. Dallas has been stout against the run but vulnerable to the pass, and even with their clock-controlling ways, NYG should push things through the air when they have it. Week 15 against Detroit’s league-worst pass defense speaks for itself, and then you can bail before Eli’s rough matchup at Philly for your championship week.
Philip Rivers (QB, SD) - (@HOU, TB, @CAR, OAK, @CLE, KC)
Rivers isn’t a standout for Week 12 against Houston’s strong secondary, but it’s smooth sailing after that. Tampa Bay, Carolina, Oakland and Cleveland all have bottom-half defenses against opposing quarterbacks. The Bucs and Panthers are effectively "funnel-type" defenses, that are pretty good upfront in the box but their secondaries are lacking. The Raiders defense ranks out as the fourth worst overall in DVOA, and then the Browns. There aren’t many leagues where Rivers is available, but perhaps some of you Rivers owners aren’t feeling as secure as you should be. Always have a Plan B, but this looks good beyond Week 12.
Sam Bradford (QB, MIN) - (@DET, DAL, @JAC, IND, @GB, CHI)
This is for the more desperate, but Bradford’s Thanksgiving matchup against the aforementioned terrible Lions defense is a great one. Week 13 against Dallas should be a bloodbath with that stud offensive line against Minnesota’s defense, and Week 14 isn’t good either as Jacksonville’s secondary has been quietly very strong (seventh-least fantasy points allowed to QBs on average over their last four games). Weeks 15 and 16 though, those are solid matchups. The Colts are giving up a ton of points to QBs and currently sit at 29th against the pass per DVOA, and we all just saw on Sunday Night Football how awful the Packers currently are on the back-end.
Jameis Winston (QB, TB) - (SEA, @SD, NO, @DAL, @NO, CAR)
Winston has been eyed as a playoff QB ever since we drafted in the preseason, as the Saints' defense has been viewed with googly eyes after their historically bad showing in 2015. While New Orleans has looked better lately, they still make for a favorable matchup. The other thing is that Jameis Winston is honest-to-goodness solid as a fantasy quarterback, as he’s produced a touchdown in every single game of his career thus far! Tampa Bay’s offensive line is banged up and even with Doug Martin back, they’re struggling to break three yards per carry on the ground. Their defense won’t win any games. It's on Jameis to produce for Tampa Bay. Facing Seattle at home is not good for Week 12, and San Diego has shown flashes of brilliance this season by limiting the likes of Drew Brees, Andrew Luck and Matt Ryan below 15 fantasy points so far. It'd be preferable to wait on him for those playoff matchups, but do stash him now.
QBs With Unfavorable Late-Season Schedules
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB) - (@PHI, HOU, SEA, @CHI, MIN, @DET)
Yeah, you probably gasped a little. Outside of that Chicago matchup, this is an atrocious slate for Rodgers and the struggling Packers. While Rodgers does account for many touchdowns thanks to Green Bay not having a real rushing game, this is ugly. The Eagles just limited a league-leading Falcons offense to a paltry 15 points at home in Week 10, and have performed very well at home. Houston’s secondary has really stood up, led by A.J. Bouye who has PFF’s highest grade for a cornerback at 87.8. Seattle obviously makes for a tall order as well, and a divisional matchup against Minnesota in Week 16 could replicate Rodgers’ worst game of the season from Week 2 when he only mustered 213 yards and one TD.
Marcus Mariota (QB, TEN) - (@CHI, BYE, DEN, @KC, @JAX, HOU)
Some people may not have realized that Mariota and the Titans still haven’t had their bye week yet, so please do remember he’ll be posting a zero in Week 13. Then he comes out of that to take on the stifling Broncos defense in the first week of the fantasy playoffs. If you make it through Round 1, he then gets to travel to Arrowhead Stadium to tangle with the Chiefs, who match up very well with Tennessee. Kansas City has taken away opposing tight ends all season long, Greg Olsen's 5-39-0 line was the best thus far, so Delanie Walker will likely be smothered. That's a big piece of their passing game, so Mariota is far from an ideal QB down the stretch.
Kirk Cousins (QB, WAS) - (@DAL, @ARI, @PHI, CAR, @CHI, NYG)
While Cousins has shown a lot of growth this season, including an improvement on the road, it’s still a tall order to go on a three-game road trip against three tough teams. We don’t particularly care for QBR as an end-all, be-all analytical tool, but it’s worth noting that in 2015 Cousins had a QBR that was 30 points lower on the road. This season he has closed the gap to nearly zero, but he’s also only played four road games thus far. The worst part here is that Weeks 13 and 14 are road dates with defenses that rank in the top three in pass DVOA, so just be aware.
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL) - (ARI, KC, @LA, SF, @CAR, NO)
Woah there, slow your roll Nick. I know, Ryan has averaged 325 yards per game and has been a certified beast! He threw for three TDs in Seattle, what more do you need?! Well, it can’t be any secret to his owners that the Eagles just shut him down for his worst game of the season in Week 11. Atlanta had a bye week to rest, and should at least be able to hit this rough two- or three-game stretch with fresh legs. I say two or three because Arizona and Kansas City are undeniably tough defenses, and while Los Angeles has been a good defense, they are vulnerable with an offense that struggles to stay on the field. This could actually limit Ryan because he may not need to play in the fourth quarter if they’re up 38-3. Weeks 15 and 16 are solid for sure, but getting there may not be the top-five/QB1 paradise that you’ve envisioned.
