August 7, 2016

RotoBaller's Frankie Soler breaks down the top 50 wide receivers into tiers for the upcoming fantasy football season.

Welcome back RotoBallers, as today we take a look at wide receiver rankings for standard leagues. Last week we took a look at how running back rankings break down into tiers when preparing for your upcoming draft. This edition will take that same concept and apply it to the more consistent position of recent years in wide receivers.

As with the running back piece, the goal of this tool is to act as a companion to the actual positional rankings you’ll see on RotoBaller. The purpose of the tiers is to group certain players of similar value together so that you have a sense on when/where to draft them.Much like their running back counterpart, players are grouped together for a variety of reasons. Whether its similar injury concerns or role in the offense, each tier balances talent with draft value. Use that as part of your fantasy draft prep and you should be in better shape for the upcoming season.

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2016 Fantasy Football Rankings Analysis: Wide Receiver (WR)

Tier 1 – Standard Wide Receiver Rankings

1. Antonio Brown, PIT
2. Odell Beckham, Jr., NYG
3. Julio Jones, ATL

In reality I could justifiably get cute here and put Antonio Brown in a tier all by himself but I’ll spare you the overexposure to my love affair with AB. The short version on Brown’s 2016 outlook is that he represents a changing of the guard atop fantasy draft boards. He’s the consensus number one overall player heading into the upcoming season and with good reason. Between the shakiness at running back and Brown’s unparalleled consistency, it’s hard to argue that he’s not deserving of the top spot. Even if you prefer the likes of Todd Gurley or Adrian Peterson to start your draft, Antonio is still locked in as the top WR regardless of your strategy.

Both Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones further the new era of fantasy football with wide receivers outranking most running backs in the first round. Although they might be a small step below Antonio Brown, the fact remains that they’re undoubtedly two of the best receivers in the NFL and their fantasy prowess reflects that. No well versed fantasy analyst should be telling you that you “must” take a certain position early in your draft but there’s absolutely a strong case to be made for this top tier of wide receivers to go within the first three picks.

Tier 2 – Standard Wide Receiver Rankings

4. DeAndre Hopkins, HOU
5. A.J. Green, CIN
6. Dez Bryant, DAL

There’s a case to be made that if it weren’t for the combination of Dez Bryant and Tony Romo’s injury woes last season that Dez would be sitting pretty atop this second tier of wide receivers. Instead, DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green have leapfrogged him heading into 2016. That’s not to say that the difference between these three guys is all that great, though. Most rankers (as well as ADP) have Hopkins as a first round pick but you can justifiably take either Dez or Green in the same ballpark. All three have big time play-making ability and are going to hoard targets from their respective quarterbacks.

The potential knock on Hopkins is that he has the weakest quarterback situation of the bunch but I actually think that stance tends to get blown out of proportion. Can Brock Osweiller really be any worse than Brian Hoyer? Besides, as I hinted at earlier, Dez Bryant is one Tony Romo collarbone fracture away from another lost fantasy season. That’s all a long way of telling you that all three of these guys are studs. Any discrepancies between them basically come down to personal preference and a bit of nitpicking.

Tier 3 – Standard Wide Receiver Rankings

7. Brandon Marshall, NYJ
8. Jordy Nelson, GB
9. Alshon Jeffery, CHI
10. Allen Robinson, JAX

Other than me being lower than the consensus on Allen Robinson, this tier shouldn’t really come as a huge surprise to anyone. Brandon Marshall is getting his quarterback back in Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jordy Nelson should be fully healthy for the start of the season, Alshon Jeffery won’t have a nagging hamstring injury heading into September, and Allen Robinson should continue to improve his rapport with Blake Bortles. All four players have great situations that should net them stat lines worthy of being a WR1 in fantasy for 2016.

Admittedly, I struggled with the exact order to put this group of receivers in. I might be starting to sound like a broken record in saying that this comes down to personal preference but just because it sounds familiar doesn’t mean it’s any less true. Look, there’s still a long ways to go to know the full extent of Jordy Nelson’s recovery and you’re going to hear a ton of analysis regarding Jacksonville’s projected improvements. Any way you slice it, these four WRs are stellar candidates to build your team around in the second round.

Tier 4 – Standard Wide Receiver Rankings

11. Demaryius Thomas, DEN
12. Sammy Watkins, BUF
13. Keenan Allen, SD
14. Brandin Cooks, NO
15. Mike Evans, TB
16. Amari Cooper, OAK

Now we’re starting to get into some boom-or-bust players at the position. With the possible exception of Brandin Cooks, this group carries a considerable amount of risk come draft day.

Demaryius Thomas has the biggest question mark under center while Sammy Watkins is dealing with the most significant injury this offseason. Throw in a disappointing 2015 campaign from Mike Evans, a roller coaster rookie season out of Amari Cooper, and a sophomore slump from Keenan Allen that still has us scratching our heads and you’re dealing with a “which risk are you willing to take” situation. Even Cooks, the “safest” of the bunch, had a slow start to 2016. The point here is that not every tier has an easy path to fantasy stardom and this is the group where you’re going to start seeing some warts. Would anyone really be surprised if any of these six ended up cracking the top five at the position? Take the one you’re most comfortable with in the back half of round three and hope he ends up being the breakout of the bunch.

Tier 5 – Standard Wide Receiver Rankings

17. Kelvin Benjamin, CAR
18. Randall Cobb, GB
19. T.Y. Hilton, IND
20. Julian Edelman, NE
21. Golden Tate, DET

At the risk of repeating myself once again, this is another group that has concerns in their respective situations. Whether its Kelvin Benjamin’s ACL or Julian Edelman missing Tom Brady for four games, there’s no shortage of red flags here. Luckily, all five of these players have a relatively high floor.

The aforementioned Benjamin is the clear-cut top receiving option on a team with the leagues top fantasy quarterback in Cam Newton. Randall Cobb has always shined better as the number two receiver in his offense rather than a number one. T.Y. Hilton, although the one that makes me the most nervous, should benefit from a bounce back year from quarterback Andrew Luck. Despite not having Brady to start the year, Edelman is still a reception machine whose value only increases in PPR formats. Lastly, Golden Tate is now the number one receiver in the wake of Calvin Johnson’s retirement. In short, you’re looking at a tier of wide receivers who likely won’t end up being top-10 at year’s end but they can most certainly pad your fantasy stats as your WR2.

Tier 6 – Standard Wide Receiver Rankings

22. Doug Baldwin, SEA
23. Jarvis Landry, MIA
24. Jeremy Maclin, KC
25. Jordan Matthews, PHI
26. Eric Decker, NYJ
27. Emmanuel Sanders, DEN
28. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
29. John Brown, ARI
30. Michael Floyd, ARI

I’m sure plenty of you are wondering why Doug Baldwin comes in so low within these wide receiver tiers and it boils down to one mind-blowing statistic. Baldwin finished 2016 with 14 touchdowns and 1,069 yards, a great year by any standard you want to use. In his previous four seasons combined, however, Baldwin had 15 touchdowns total, never exceeding five in any given year. Suffice it to say, there is an extremely good chance that Baldwin will regress in the upcoming season and that expected regression is baked into his ranking. Sure, he’ll likely end up as a decent WR2 but expecting him to repeat as WR7 or even a top-12 fantasy wide receiver is way off-base.

If you’ll excuse that semi-transgression of bashing Doug Baldwin we can return to our regularly scheduled ranking tiers program. This is a large group that is somewhat volume dependent given their team situations. Whether it’s Jeremy Maclin being in a predominantly run-heavy offense or all three Arizona wide receivers fighting for targets, there’s some shakiness to depending on this group as anything more than a low-end WR2. That being said, just because expectations need to be lowered on draft day doesn’t mean they can’t exceed them over the course of the season. Just don’t overpay for anyone in this particular group and you’ll be in good shape with any of them on your roster.

Tier 7 – Standard Wide Receiver Rankings

31. Michael Crabtree, OAK
32. DeSean Jackson, WAS
33. Donte Moncrief, IND
34. Kevin White, CHI
35. Allen Hurns, JAX
36. DeVante Parker, MIA

The most accurate way to describe this particular grouping would be to say that they’re all a lesser version of the boom-or-bust tiers you’ve already come across. You shouldn’t need me to tell you about how DeSean Jackson’s big play ability is both a blessing and a curse or that Kevin White is essentially entering his rookie season after an injury ridden 2015. Those are the kinds of things you’ll have to worry about when selecting anyone in this particular group. These are all solid options to have on your bench come bye weeks but you won’t want to rely on any of them on a consistent basis. There’s going to be flashes of brilliance in roughly half of their games played it’ll just be impossible to figure out when exactly those games are coming.

Tier 8 – Standard Wide Receiver Rankings

37. Tyler Lockett, SEA
38. Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN
39. Travis Benjamin, SD
40. Marvin Jones, DET
41. Corey Coleman, CLE
42. Laquon Treadwell, MIN

We’re now firmly into the “flier” territory. This is the part of your draft where you’re throwing at a dartboard hoping to hit a bull’s-eye. All of these players have considerable upside but need a few things to go their way in order to end up being fantasy relevant.

First you have two sophomores in Tyler Lockett and Dorial Green-Beckham who need to see an expanded role in their respective offenses in order to find their way into your starting lineup. Next you have two veterans heading to new teams who can immediately benefit from a change of scenery in Travis Benjamin and Marvin Jones. Benjamin broke onto the scene seemingly out of nowhere in Cleveland last year and has a much more consistent quarterback situation with Philip Rivers now throwing to him. Marvin Jones, on the other hand, could be heading from one mediocre situation to another by going from Andy Dalton’s number two to Matthew Stafford’s. Lastly, two rookies round out this tier in Corey Coleman and Laquon Treadwell. Given the fact that the Browns are absolutely desperate for a number one wide receiver, Coleman has the edge over Treadwell in that regard.

Like I said, each of these players need a few things to break their way in order to achieve fantasy relevance so don’t expect too much out of them barring some luck.

Tier 9 – Standard Wide Receiver Rankings

43. Stefon Diggs, MIN
44. Steve Smith, BAL
45. Markus Wheaton, PIT
46. Torrey Smith, SF
47. Sterling Shepard, NYG
48. Josh Doctson, WAS
49. Michael Thomas, NO
50. Mohamed Sanu, ATL

Rounding out our wide receiver tiers is a last grouping of late round dart throws. These wideouts are just a small step below their tier eight predecessors but do still hold some upside. Luckily, you should know what these players are fairly early into the season. Whether it’s Sammy Coates outplaying Markus Wheaton to solidify the number two spot in Pittsburgh or Victor Cruz returning to form once fully healthy to do the same to Sterling Shepard, it’ll be easy for you to cut bait with what should be the final receiver on your roster.

Wide Receiver Rankings - Standard Scoring

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