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Jarod Rupp's 10 fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2025 MLB season, including predictions for Yordan Alvarez, Junior Caminero, Paul Skenes, and more.
In an attempt to win our fantasy leagues, for months leading up to our drafts, we are taking in as much information as possible, forming thoughts and opinions on what the likeliest outcome for a player is. But sometimes, it's fun to take a break from all of that and think about what's possible, even if improbable.
As a reminder, bold predictions aren't supposed to be likely outcomes; rather, they are long shots. But even though these are long shots, I attempt to provide the reasoning or formulation behind the thought that should at least give some credibility to how this prediction could come to pass.
I provide you with 10 of my bold predictions for the 2025 season below but look for others in this series from some of my colleagues here at RotoBaller. Perhaps when the season is all said and done, we'll revisit this article to see how far off base (or on point!) these forecasts may have been. Enjoy!
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Yordan Alvarez wins the AL Triple Crown
You wanted bold, you got it. No player has achieved the feat since 2012 when Miguel Cabrera accomplished it, and he was the first one to do it in 45 years when he did it. So, it doesn't happen often.
Even as prolific as Aaron Judge's recent seasons have been, he's fallen short, including last season when he led the league in HR and RBI but did not have the highest batting average even though he hit .322 (Bobby Witt Jr. hit .332).
So why is Yordan Alvarez the one to do it? Well, first of all, he excels in all three categories. The left-handed hitter has averaged 34 home runs per season over the last four years but averaging just 135 games played and 573 plate appearances. If he can log more PA in 2025, that means more HR.
Last season, Alvarez split time between DH (95 G) and LF (53 G), but in the interest of keeping him healthy in order to see more PA, the Astros could further limit the amount of time he plays in the field, which is what manager Joe Espada already has in mind.
The 3x All-Star is also a career .298 hitter, not too shabby. But below are his 2024 numbers from May 28 through the end of the season. Not only did he hit .333, but he had an OPS of 1.057, a wOBA of .438, and a wRC+ of 193!
Think that's good? Look at those same stats over that same time period, but compare when he played left field versus when he was a designated hitter. Wow.
I'm not saying he will hit .355 next year, but can he hit around .332 like last year's batting champ did? I think so.
The hole in this argument could be the RBI. He can't lead the league in RBI in a diminished lineup that has an aging Jose Altuve and no longer has Kyle Tucker or Alex Bregman, right? Well, in my best Lee Corso voice, "Not so fast!"
PECOTA projections have the Astros scoring the most runs in the entire American League in the upcoming season, and whether that holds true or not really isn't relevant. What it shows is that this lineup is good enough to put up runs, and the most likely person on the team who will be driving them in is Alvarez.
The biggest thing standing in his way is if Judge hits another 50 homers because I don't see Alvarez doing that. But if Judge hits only 42, well, now he has a shot. After May 28, Alvarez had 15 HR in 239 PA as a DH. Given 700 PA (like Judge and Witt both had last season), that's a 44 HR pace.
Here's Alvarez's final Triple Crown-winning line: .330-44-130-120-5
Junior Caminero hits 40 home runs
I guess I'll fill in as conductor on the Junior Caminero hype train for a minute. The former top prospect will finally get a full season of major league at-bats in 2025, bringing with him his 70-grade power that allowed him to hit 31 home runs in only 460 ABs as a 19-year-old in 2023.
Last season, he tallied 16 homers in only 234 ABs before being recalled to the majors, where the Dominican recorded a .424 slugging percentage and belted six more homers in 165 ABs.
He owned an 11.8 percent barrel rate and registered one of the 15 hardest-hit balls in the majors last season with an exit velocity of 116.3 mph. He did that at only 20 years old.
Caminero will be 21 years old during the forthcoming campaign, still growing into his power, but can deploy it to all fields. He recently reminded us of what he can do by going deep to dead center for the eventual game-winning home run in Game 7 of the Dominican Winter League championship.
Junior Caminero hit the most crucial home run of his career: a 454 FT no doubter in the top of the 9th to put his team ahead 6-5 in Game 7 of the LIDOM final. pic.twitter.com/aXjLnXDorU
— Francys Romero (@francysromeroFR) January 28, 2025
Wyatt Langford leads the Rangers in HR and SB
Leody Taveras led the team in steals last year with 23 and Wyatt Langford had 19. With Taveras being a platoon player and Langford an everyday player, to see Langford leapfrog Taveras isn't that much of a stretch.
But with the likes of Corey Seager (30 HR in '24), Adolis Garcia (39 HR in '23), and Jake Burger (29 HR in '24), to see Langford eclipse those guys in HR would be a surprise, especially after hitting just 16 last season.
However, with how the former first-round draft pick finished last season, he could carry that momentum into 2025 and lead the Rangers in long balls.
The youngster had eight home runs through the end of August last year with an 8.4 percent barrel rate and 5.8 percent HR/FB%, then proceeded to double that output by sending eight more over the fence in September alone on the back of a 13.2 percent barrel rate and 33.3 percent HR/FB%.
Assuming Langford and the Rangers liked what they saw late last year, he surely worked on refining that approach over the winter and will bring it into 2025.
Note that the 23-year-old suffered a mild oblique strain on February 21, but could take batting practice as soon as this weekend and make his Cactus League debut shortly thereafter. Regardless of the exact timing, manager Bruce Bochy believes Langford will be ready for Opening Day.
Tyler O'Neill finishes with the highest wRC+ of any Orioles player
Maybe we should add a qualifier to this: of any Oriole who plays 125-plus games. Because staying on the field has been O'Neill's bugaboo.
Last season, he played in only 113 games as a result of three separate IL stints, but that was only the second time in his career that he's logged over 100 games, a career that began in 2018!
Last year, he finished with a 131 wRC+, which was good, but Gunnar Henderson finished with a 155 wRC+, so to beat out Henderson in 2025 will be a challenge.
Although the former third-round draft pick logged just 113 games in 2024, one IL stint was concussion-related after colliding with his own teammate, and another was a result of an infection in his leg, so chances are those issues will not repeat themselves in 2025.
You may say that O'Neill strikes out too much, but despite a 31.3 percent K% in 2021 (his last "full" season), he batted .286, which would have bested Henderson's .281 from a year ago on a 22.1 percent K%.
Also, O'Neill's 17.3 percent barrel rate from '24 was markedly better than Henderson's at 11.2 percent. If the 29-year-old can manage closer to 600 PA (he recorded 473 in '24) then he could flirt with 40 homers and 20-plus doubles hitting in the middle of the Orioles lineup.
Throw in a walk rate of 11.2 percent, which was also better than Henderson's 10.8 percent, and O'Neill has a way to make this prediction come to fruition.
(Note that Gunnar Henderson is now dealing with an intercostal strain which has put his status for Opening Day into question. If he were to miss time then O'Neill would have an early jump on him)
Luis Arraez hits .375 and wins the fourth straight batting title for the fourth different team
Hitting for a fourth batting title isn't a reach here, but doing it for his fourth different team with a .375 average is.
I'd love to say he'll hit that magical .400 threshold, but I just don't think that will ever happen again with all the information available to pitchers, in-season adjustments that are made based on that info, a plethora of arms that can touch 100+ mph while inducing the type of contact the pitcher wants, shifts, starting pitchers only going through a batting order twice, and on, and on... but I digress.
Still, Arraez is Tony Gwynn-Lite, and with a 93.1 percent career contact rate and 95.1 percent contact rate on pitches in the zone, he's going to put the bat on the ball and to whatever part of the field he wants.
The 3x All-Star owns a career batting average of .323 and is heading into his age 28 season. Gwynn had a career batting average of .326 through age 26, but from 27 on through to the end of his career, he hit .342, so the best could still be to come for Arraez.
Gwynn was able to play his entire career for one team, but unfortunately, for some reason, Arraez keeps getting passed around from team to team. Being on a one-year deal in 2025 could mean he's on the move again before the trade deadline.
Kyle Tucker is your NL MVP
I thought last season was going to be the year he took home the MVP, and I think if Kyle Tucker didn't foul a ball off of his shin, he would have made a good run at it, although Bobby Witt Jr. and Aaron Judge both had fantastic seasons.
King Tuck started strong, slashing .300/.412/.555 with seven home runs over the first month of the season. The former first-round draft pick traded average for power in May, slashing .216/.364/.598 with 11 home runs during the month.
After fouling a ball off of his leg and the Astros claiming he'd suffered only a bone bruise, leaving hope he'd miss just a limited amount of time, the 3x All-Star ended up missing three months with what turned out to be a fracture in his shin.
Upon his return, Tucker finished with a flurry over the final month, slashing a robust .365/.453/.587 in September. Despite missing 84 games, the former Silver Slugger award winner recorded a .289-23-49-56-11 line with a .419 wOBA and 180 wRC+ (the latter two stats were better than Witt's).
Extrapolated out, that's a .289-44-93-107-21 line if given 650 plate appearances. Playing in a dynamic young offense like the Cubs have, there's no doubt Tucker could put up similar stats in 2025 on the way to earning NL MVP.
Paul Skenes does not finish as the highest-ranked Pirates pitcher for fantasy
I don't have to have a crystal ball to predict this to happen; all it takes is one injury, really. Not that I hope or think that will happen to Skenes, I'm just saying that's all it takes for this to come true.
But even if he pitches a full complement of games this season, the Pirates have some other hurlers that could end up having better seasons for fantasy.
Mitch Keller has also shown ace-level potential from time to time and is only 28 years old. While 2024 wasn't all that great, he's not far removed from 2023, which saw him strike out 210 batters in 194 1/3 IP and win 13 games.
Jared Jones allowed three or fewer runs in 18 of 22 starts last season, but four bad starts resulted in a 4.14 ERA (3.72 SIERA). The righty had a solid 26.2 percent strikeout rate and 9.76 K/9 as well. (Update: as of March 19, Jones was seeking a second opinion on his elbow after feeling discomfort earlier in the week)
Also, don't forget about Bubba Chandler, the Pirates' new top pitching prospect. If he's able to win a spot in the rotation this spring or shortly thereafter, he's got the potential to put up great fantasy numbers, too.
Thomas Harrington won't get enough starts to beat out Skenes, but he's another big arm in the Pirates' system. Regardless of what happens, the Pirates have a lot to be excited about (then again, they'll probably trade them all away, so maybe the Yankees have a lot to be excited about).
Royce Lewis plays in over 140 games
Between a second ACL tear, a hamstring injury, a quad strain, and groin tightness in the last three seasons alone, Royce Lewis has been limited to only 152 games over that three-year stretch.
I'm excited to see him play a full season and I don't believe he's destined to be Anthony Rendon-level injury prone and unreliable. Or maybe I'm just trying to will it into existence.
Either way, the 25-year-old has adjusted his offseason routine in hopes of staying in the lineup, so we'll see if that does the trick.
The Mets don't make the playoffs
The baseball season is a grind and anything can happen, so it's possible the Mets win the World Series. But I think it's more likely that the Mets won't even make the playoffs.
Sure, the team surprised last season, but you can't convince me they're going to excel with the below pictured rotation of castoffs who have an average age over 31 years old, with David Peterson owning the lowest career ERA of the bunch at 4.08.
(this graphic has been updated twice already after Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea were injured, and neither of them have a career ERA below 4.00 either)
Clay Holmes actually has a lower career ERA than that at 3.71, but he's made only four starts in his career, with each of those coming back in 2018 and a 7.80 ERA tied to them.
Technically, Kodai Senga has the lowest "career" ERA at 2.99, but that's with a single major league season under his belt (2023) after making one start all of last season. So there isn't a long track record there.
That's just the pitching. Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto are great, but I have my doubts about Pete Alonso.
If teams thought Pete Alonso was going to wallop 40-plus homers again, he probably would have been signed long ago by a team other than the reluctant Mets. Seeing his strikeout rate rise two consecutive seasons and heading into his 30s throws up a caution flag.
Jesse Winker is a platoon player who had some big hits late last season that helped build the momentum that propelled the team to the playoffs, then hit well during the playoffs, but all of that probably makes people forget that he hit .071 in September (3-for-42).
Francisco Alvarez was quite the disappointment as well. After starting the year strong, slashing .296/.365/.479 with a .364 wOBA and 138 wRC+ through 41 games prior to the All-Star break, the Venezuelan backstop slashed .187/.257/.337 with a .262 wOBA and 70 wRC+ post-All-Star break (50 G).
While he's not likely ever going to hit for average, the 23-year-old hit just 11 home runs after blasting 25 the year before, seeing his ISO dip from .228 to .166 on the back of a drop in barrel rate from 12.5 percent to 6.7 percent.
So, sorry Mr. Alvarez, this lineup is not better than the Dodgers' lineup, and it isn't even the best lineup in its own division.
https://t.co/vD5kIBvbxl. Francisco Alvarez doubles down on his Mets boast. “I think we are better than the Dodgers (lineup),” Alvarez tells The Post
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) February 13, 2025
Update: the Mets' chances took another hit on March 9 when it was announced Alvarez would miss 6-8 weeks with a broken hamate bone in his left hand.
The Dodgers don't win the NL West
Speaking of anything can happen... the Dodgers have stockpiled as many free agents as they could possibly find in an absurd fashion, but then again, it's justifiable because injuries are part of the game, so you want to have a backup plan in place. Next man up, right?
Well, as the Braves showcased last season, at some point, the next man up is not as good as the man he's stepping in for. A team can only withstand so many injuries to main pieces (Spencer Strider, Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies, and Sean Murphy all missed significant time).
Although the Dodger lineup is much more formidable than the Mets lineup, it's also much older. Outside of Hyeseong Kim, the other eight hitters in the projected starting lineup will be 30 or older come May 9. The youngest bench bat is 33 years old. These guys are more prone to breaking down.
The pitching staff has its issues as well, with Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May coming back from Tommy John surgery and the oft-injured Tyler Glasnow (and former TJ patient) accounting for much of their rotation. Shohei Ohtani is returning to the bump from his second career major surgery on his pitching elbow, plus an offseason surgery to address a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto missed nearly three months last season with a shoulder injury, although he is fully recovered. Roki Sasaki is the young, potential star, but he too comes with risk. Blake Snell is a two-time Cy Young winner, but outside of those two seasons (and 2020 aside), the lefty has averaged 114 IP.
The Dodgers have enough firepower to make the playoffs, but they will underperform this year and it will be a closer-than-expected divisional race. I suppose that means the scrappy Diamondbacks will win the West!
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