Week 10 Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups & Analysis

Max Petrie analyzes the top MLB Starting Pitcher (SP) waiver wire pickups and adds for Week 10 of the fantasy baseball season. They are starting pitcher sleepers.

Long days, long nights. Summer is upon us and the baseball season is in full swing. If you've been following along with this series all season, you know the drill. If not, this article is to help you uncover starting pitcher options that may have been overlooked in your league. Most of the guys mentioned below (and at the very bottom) are owned in around 50% of leagues, however I am providing some options for deeper leagues too.

Don’t forget to check out our Starting Pitcher Matchups & Streaming Tool for expert guidance during the week too, including what pitchers to start/sit for seasonal and DFS leagues. Let’s get to it.

Editor’s Note: to read about even more waiver wire options for starting pitchers, be sure to check out our famous waiver wire pickups list which is a running list that is updated daily.

Starting Pitchers Waiver Wire - Shallow Leagues

Taijuan Walker (SEA, SP)

OWNED IN: 35% of Fleaflicker Leagues

BALLER MOVE: Add in 10+ team leagues

Walker was one my preseason picks for a breakout performance, and he proceeded to make me (and others) look foolish with a rough start to 2015. Yes, going off a strong Spring is foolish when it comes to starting pitchers. But check out his splits in 2014, in particular his strong September to finish the year. Walker's ADP soared this spring and had ownership rates hovering near 75%. There was reason to believe that Walker, only 22 years old, was starting to figure things out.

Safe to say early on Walker owners were getting plenty of use out of their stress ball. Jump to his May 24th outing at Toronto, his fifth time in nine outings in which he allowed more than four runs.  His ERA had jumped to 7.33 while sporting a 4.81 BB/9 rate and owners were jumping ship, with ownership dropping to 30%.

Just like the stock market, owners dumping stocks represented an opportunity for players to buy low (aka pay nothing but a FA transaction). Walker has rewarded owners who held firm and those who jumped on, completing eight innings in each of his last two outings with a combined three runs, one walk, and 15 punchouts.

I watched his last outing vs the Yankees and immediately noticed an adjustment; Walker was pounding the zone with his fastball and limited throwing "waste" pitches. Check out his pitch usage this year.

The only batter in which he did get cute was Alex Rodriguez, where he had an 0-2 count and proceeded to walk him on four straight pitches no where near the zone. Three batters later, Garrett Jones would take him deep for a 3-1 lead.

Am I buying Walker to turn things around and become a top 40 SP? Not necessarily. Check out his home/road splits.

26.2 innings is a small sample but it's not what I would call reassuring by any means. This, combined with the tendency to get himself in trouble with his control, are limiting his value. But a guy with this potential and ability to rack up Ks (8.24 K/9) should not be sitting in free agency. Available in 65% of leagues, check and see if he's out there. I don't think I have the stones to start him at Cleveland, but if he excels I expect the ownership levels to soar.

Tim Hudson (SF, SP)

OWNED IN: 8% of Fleaflicker Leagues

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ team leagues

Tim Hudson is the tortoise; slow, steady, but effective and reliable. He isn't flashy (4.67 K/9), he isn't blowing anyone away (88 mph fastball), and he can be boring to watch (55.7 GB%). However, he is consistent (hasn't had an ERA above 3.97 since 2006) and durable (at least 179 IP since 2010, aside from his freak ankle injury in 2013), two criteria of utmost importance to roto players.

To this point Hudson has been nothing special, with a 4.41 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and a 36/16 K/BB ratio over 69.1 innings. Lately he's begun to come around with back-to-back performances against Atlanta and Pittsburgh, compiling 14 innings with three runs and a 10/1 K/BB ratio. Since his first appearance at San Diego, Hudson has yet to allow more than two free passes in a game. If you remove his outing at Coors, Hudson has a 2.22 ERA since May 19th.

My concern with Hudson is he's gone to his four-seamer more often in 2015 and hitters are pounding it (see below for pitch usage and slugging percentage against). Considering his fastball has been on a steady decline the past three years, it's important for Huddy to focus on his sinker, curveball, and splitter more often to keep hitters off balance. Pitchf/x has these as his most productive pitches so far.

Tim Hudson Pitch Usage - 2015

Tim Hudson - Slugging % against - 2015

In shallow leagues roster sizes may limit owners from grabbing Hudson aside from streaming purposes, but deep leagues need to take notice and grab a share. He's got an outing at NYM coming up and is out there in 92% of leagues. Batter (or pitcher) up.

Starting Pitchers Waiver Wire - Deeper Leagues

Matt Moore (TB, SP)

OWNED IN: 16% of Fleaflicker Leagues

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ team leagues

I wrote about Moore in my DL edition article but with his rehab progressing smoothly, I wanted to reiterate to owners to grab Moore if you have an extra DL spot. He only threw 52 pitches over 2.1 innings and his fastball was hovering around 91-92 mph. It's highly unlikely Moore ever get his fastball back to the 94-95 range, but that doesn't mean he can't be successful. Keep in mind his fastball was around 92 mph in 2013 when he turned in a 17-4 record with a 3.29 ERA.

The main issue with Moore remains his poor control. Even in 2013 his WHIP was 1.30 (1.33 for his career). That's right about average for MLB pitchers but a little too high to be a SP 3-4 for a fantasy rotation. Regardless of the control we're talking about a pitcher with proven success in the majors and a return anticipated near the end of June. I'm interested to see if Moore continues the increase in usage of the curveball before T.J. (I say no) and how Tampa handles his workload with the team in contention.

I understand many of you have your DL spots filled or have an overload of injured players, but I'm going to make a prediction and say in 84% of leagues, there's a good probability someone has DL room to stash a player.

Chad Bettis (COL, SP)

OWNED IN: 10% of Fleaflicker Leagues

BALLER MOVE: Add in 14+ team leagues / NL-Only leagues

I've received a ton of inquiries regarding Bettis so I felt it was only right to take a deeper look. Bettis has been a revelation for the Rockies rotation, compiling a 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a 27/9 K/BB ratio over 33.1 innings. In case you haven't heard the Bettis story this piece does a great job of breaking down his road from the minors.

After shoulder surgery in 2012 and 12 starts at Double-A Tulsa he joined the Rockies rotation in August and pitched poorly, being relegated to the bullpen in late September of 2013. The team had him working out of the bullpen to begin 2014 until realizing their mistake and getting him on a starters program in August 2014.

Fast forward to 2015 and he's currently the 7th rated SP the past 14 days. So it sustainable? Obviously not at this pace when you factor in his home park. But is he fantasy relevant?

I'm inclined to say yes, but only for deeper leagues. He hasn't allowed a home run in five starts and his fly ball rate is on par with his career, so that's likely to change. The reason I have hope is he has solid control of his arsenal (2.43 BB/9) and has seen an improvement of his curveball and changeup, both of which he's increased usage of so far.

If he can keep hitters off balance and limits the free passes perhaps he can overcome the Coors effect. Go get him in deep leagues, there's a 90% chance you can.

Other Pitchers Previously Highlighted to Consider

Noah Syndergaard (NYM, SP / 69%); Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS, SP / 56%); Ubaldo Jimenez (BAL, SP / 55%); Tim Lincecum (SF, SP / 54%); Jesse Chavez (OAK, SP / 53%); James Paxton (DL) (SEA, SP / 45%);  Tanner Roark (WAS, SP,RP / 47%);  Mike Leake (CIN, SP / 31%); Jimmy Nelson (MIL, SP / 19%); Charlie Morton (PIT, SP / 16%); Tsuyoshi Wada (SP, CHC / 16%); Roenis Elias (SEA, SP / 13%)

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