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Atlanta Falcons' receiver Julio Jones is one of the most interesting players to analyze in upcoming fantasy drafts. With a double digit TD season, two thousand yard season (including a 1500 yarder), and a 100 catch season to his name, Jones has accomplished quite a bit in the NFL before his 26th birthday. Most people would view a player with this type of pedigree and upside as a no-doubt-about-it top 15 pick, but this offseason fantasy football analysts generally don't even have him as a top-5 wide receiver option. The names in front of him generally include Antonio Brown, Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Odell Beckham Jr., and Jordy Nelson. All great players in their own right, but here is why Julio Jones belongs at #1 on your WR big board this coming season.
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- No player in NFL history that has played more than 16 games has averaged more receiving yards per game in their first four NFL seasons than Julio Jones (88.4). Not Calvin Johnson (69.9). Not Randy Moss (84.3). Not Jerry Rice (81.4). Contrary to touchdowns, yards are much easier to predict from season to season. Jones has averaged an astonishing 88.4 yards per game in his four year career which would be the best in NFL history (minimum 16 games). The yards will be there for Julio.
- Roddy White is no longer a threat to "steal" targets. In Julio's rookie season, White received 180 targets from QB Matt Ryan. Last year, that number dropped to 125. That's a drop from 11.25 targets per game down to 8.9. Where are those extra 2.3 targets going? Julio of course, who received 7.3 targets per game in his rookie season and has since trended upward to a career high of 10.9 targets per game this past season. The moral of the story, Matt Ryan has eyes for Julio.
- Kyle Shanahan loves the X-receiver. Shanahan is the new offensive coordinator in Atlanta and his offenses traditionally love the X-receiver which just so happens to be the spot where Julio Jones lines up most often. Andre Johnson turned in his best seasons playing the X in Shanahan's offense in 2008-2009. More recently, Shanahan's X heavy scheme turned Pierre Garcon into a fantasy stud in 2013 when he got a whopping 184 targets. Prorate Julio Jones' yards per target for his career to a potential 184 target season and you're looking at an 1800 yard year.
Even with the injury concerns, Julio performs so well on a per game basis that he is worth the risk. 14 games of Julio Jones plus two games of a replacement player is still going to be a top-5 wideout option. If you get the full 16 game healthy season, watch out. The breakout has already come, the only question now is how high can Julio soar?
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