RADIO
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Talladega on Sunday for the second race of the Round of 12. Through four playoff races, no active playoff driver has won—the first three races were won by non-playoff drivers, while last week at Texas, the already-eliminated Tyler Reddick drove to victory lane.
The biggest storyline heading into this race is that one playoff driver, Alex Bowman, will miss this week due to a concussion, meaning that if he returns next week, he'll likely have to win to advance to the next round. Noah Gragson will drive the 48 this week.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 10/2/22 at 2:00 p.m. ET. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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Ryan Blaney
Starts 19th - DraftKings $10,400 | FanDuel $13,500
This is Talladega, where anything can happen, and for that reason I tend to fade drivers starting in the top-10, opting instead of place differential plays. With Ryan Blaney starting 19th, he qualifies for that role.
This has historically been a really good track for Blaney, as he's won twice here in the Cup Series, including a win in 2020 when he led 63 laps. His last three finishes here are between 9th and 15th, but he led double-digit laps in two of those races.
Again, anything can happen here. But if we get a race that resembles the Xfinity race yesterday when there wasn't a big crash, Blaney's a great bet to find his way up front, so he doesn't even need carnage to get those PD points.
Chase Elliott
Starts 16th - DraftKings $10,000| FanDuel $12,000
Elliott rolls off 16th. I think there are some drivers who are more obvious plays in this range, considering Kyle Busch starts 26th and Martin Truex Jr. starts 22nd. But a starting spot of 16th still offers some place differential upside.
Like Blaney, Elliott is a former winner here, as he won the spring race in 2019, leading 45 laps. He's also been a smart driver here, staying mostly out of trouble. He's finished eight of his last nine Talladega races, which is tough to do considering how wild these races can go.
Bubba Wallace
Starts 27th - DraftKings $8,900 | FanDuel $10,500
Wallace is a little too pricy on FanDuel, but I think he's a really nice value on DraftKings. Wallace won this race last year, and while a lot of people questioned the legitimacy of that win since it was in a rain-shortened event, I think the way that Wallace has consistently found himself up front at superspeedways is proof that the win wasn't a fluke. He would have been in contention if the race was completed.
Wallace starts really far back, as he's the lowest-starting Toyota in this field. While last year's win was the only top-10 Wallace has had here, he's led laps in his last six Talladega starts, including leading 15 of them in the first race here before finishing 17th.
Again, the refrain of this week's article is that anything can happen on these high banks. That includes drivers running well but not getting the finishes that their race speed suggests they should have gotten. That's Bubba here, and my process for races like this is to look less at the finishes and more at the in-race stuff. In this case, we know Wallace has proven he can find his way to the front at Talladega.
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Kevin Harvick
Starts 24th - DraftKings $8,100 | FanDuel $8,300
My other mid-priced place differential play for Sunday's race is Stewart Haas Racing driver Kevin Harvick, who has decades of experience at this track. He's made 43 starts here.
Across those 43 starts, Harvick has found himself out front when the checkered flag flew just once, back in 2010 when he was still with RCR. But Harvick does have three top-10s in a row here, and he's been running at the finish in his last six Talladega starts.
I'm not sure the 4 car will have the speed to pick up a win on Sunday, but Harvick's veteran savvy should keep him in contention for a good finish.
Michael McDowell
Starts 29th - DraftKings $6,600 | FanDuel $5,800
Now we get down to some place differential value plays. But unlike the value plays in a Truck or Xfinity race here, these aren't plays that require carnage. These are just some solid superspeedway racers who are in equipment that can't contend outside of superspeedway races.
Okay, that last part's a bit of a lie for McDowell, as he's also run well on road courses. But the point is, superspeedways are where he shines. He has a Cup Series win at Daytona, though his track record at Talladega isn't as strong, with just three top- 10s.
But those of those three have come in the last three races here. McDowell and this FRM team have been putting things together at this track lately.
Corey Lajoie
Starts 32nd - DraftKings $6,000 | FanDuel $3,500
This car has made some moments at pack races this year, with Lajoie running up near the front during both Atlanta races. Talladega isn't Atlanta and the packs get even bigger here, but I still think those showings are positive signs for Sunday.
Looking specifically at Talladega, Lajoie has just one top-10 here, which came back in 2019. But the important thing: he has never had a DNF here. Sure, he's had issues in the past, but he has a lead lap finish in six of his last seven Talladega starts. Consider Lajoie to be one of the best place differential plays in this field.
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