WR Target and Snap Count Risers from Week 10

November 17, 2018

Phil Clark examines the most important risers and fallers in target share, red zone targets, and snap count for fantasy football wide receivers before Week 11.

Your wide receivers remain essential components toward accomplishing your unwavering goal of securing a league championship. As the season unfolds, it is crucial for you to utilize the tools that you have available, in order to maintain an extensive level of knowledge regarding the number of opportunities that are being provided to your wide receivers - both in terms of their snap counts and how often they are being targeted by their quarterbacks.

Each week, this article will examine these specific categories, along with any other noteworthy changes in usage that signal an increase or regression in opportunity. This will bolster your efforts to decide which wide receivers should be in your lineups as you plan for Week 11, while also helping you determine which receivers to depend on during the fantasy playoffs. Pro Football Reference and NFL Savant were used to obtain all target and red zone target totals, while snap count information was assembled with information from Football Outsiders.

We now are in possession of data from 10 weeks of game action that will provide the basis for comparison of snap counts and targets for each receiver. This will include the most likely candidates to experience a rise or decline in those numbers during the upcoming weeks. Here is a breakdown of the most compelling changes in usage and opportunity from Week 10.

Overall Targets  

For the first time since Week 3, Adam Thielen is not the league leader in targets. Instead, Jarvis Landry has moved to the top of the list (106) after he collected five targets during a highly disappointing Week 10 outing. Julio Jones (102) and Odell Beckham Jr. (102) are the only other wide receivers who have reached 100 targets for the season, while Antonio Brown (96), Davante Adams (94), and DeAndre Hopkins (90) have attained 90+. Five receivers have collected at least 80 targets - Michael Thomas (87), Stefon Diggs (85), Mike Evans (84), JuJu Smith-Schuster (83), Tyreek Hill (80) - while nine other receivers have captured 70+heading into Week 11 (Robert Woods, A.J. Green, Michael Crabtree, Corey Davis, Keenan Allen, Emmanuel Sanders, Golden Tate, Brandin Cooks, Tyler Boyd).

13 different receivers were targeted at least 10 times in Week 10, led by the 13 that were distributed to Kenny Golladay. Cooks and Edelman were both targeted 12 times, while Edelman's teammate Josh Gordon joined Beckham, Julio Jones, and Zay Jones with 11. Six different receivers garnered 10 targets - Larry Fitzgerald, Tyreek Hill, Danny Amendola, Corey Davis, Dede Westbrook, and Amari Cooper.

Beckham has now reached double-digit targets in seven consecutive games and has accomplished it in eight of his nine matchups this year (15, 9, 10, 11, 14, 10, 11, 11, 11). Julio Jones has now achieved it in four straight contests, along with five of his last six games (12, 9, 14, 12, 10, 11). His 47 targets since Week 6 are tied for the second highest among all receivers, which will be discussed further in the 5 Things That I Noticed section below.

Mike Evans had manufactured a streak of three straight games with at least 10 targets, but was unable to sustain it after being targeted six times. As a result, Julian Edelman owns the third-longest current streak of consecutive games with double-digit targets (3).

Even though Minnesota's bye week did impact Thielen's ability to maintain the overall lead in targets, his 11.4 per-game average still paces all receivers. However, he is followed closely by Jones (11.3) and Beckham (11.3), while Brown, Landry, and Stefon Diggs are next at 10.6. Adams (10.4) and Hopkins (10) are the only other receivers who have eclipsed 10 targets per game.

Largest Increases And Decreases

Just two weeks ago, Kenny Golladay was only targeted once, which established a new season low. But he received a season-high 13 in Week 10, which the second time that he has attained at least 12 this season. That also tied him for the largest increase of the week by a considerable margin (+9). DeVante Parker matched Golladay's +9 rise, although Parker's wildly erratic target totals from the past three weeks should not inspire any enthusiasm toward trusting him in your lineups (9, 2, 11). Otherwise, no other receiver experienced a similar surge as Hill, Zay Jones, and John Ross were next with an increase of +5, while Cooks, Westbrook, and Quincy Enunwa all had their target totals expand by four.

Meanwhile, the Week 10 target total for Golladay’s former teammate Golden Tate (4) resulted in the most precipitous drop of the week for any receiver (-8). Tate had averaged 9.8 per-game during Weeks 1-8 and had collected 12 in Week 8, which ultimately became his final game with the Lions. Maurice Harris and Michael Thomas were next with a regression of -7, although it was anticipated that Thomas would not replicate the mammoth 15 targets that he received in Week 9. His owners certainly cannot be concerned after he caught all eight of his targets, and produced two touchdowns against the Bengals.

After missing Chicago’s matchups in Weeks 8-9 due to a groin issue, Allen Robinson captured eight targets during his Week 10 return. The opportunities are also rising for teammate Anthony Miller, who has garnered 26 of his 41 targets during the Bear's last four games. Conversely, Taylor Gabriel's three targets established a new season low for the fifth-year receiver. Westbrook's 10 targets did not quite constitute a season-best, but it was his highest weekly total since Week 4. It was also a sizable jump from the 5-per-game that he had averaged from Weeks 5-8.

Red Zone Targets  

Juju Smith-Schuster is now tied with Adams and Thomas for the lead in this category (20), as the trio of players combined for nine red zone targets in Week 10. Odell Beckham is next with 17, followed by Landry (16), Hopkins (15), Thielen (15), A.J. Green (14), Sterling Shepard (14), Antonio Brown (13) and Davis (13).

Cooks and T.Y. Hilton have accumulated 12 during the year, as did Cooper Kupp prior to his season-ending torn ACL. Edelman, Hill, and Marvin Jones have garnered 11, while Cooper, Chris Godwin, Alshon Jeffery, Zay Jones, and Sammy Watkins are the other receivers who have attained double-digit red zone targets to this point of the season.

Hopkins still leads all receivers with 12 targets inside the 10-yard line, followed by Michael Thomas (11), Hilton (9), Godwin (9), Davis (8), Kupp (7), and nine different receivers who are tied with six (Adams, Smith-Schuster, Beckham, Green, Cooks, Edelman, Marvin Jones, Cooper, Golladay).

Largest Increases And Decreases

Thomas was targeted five times by Drew Brees when New Orleans traveled to Cincinnati, which was the highest total for Week 10. Beckham collected four red zone targets for the second time in his last three contests, which provided him with the second highest increase of the week.

Beckham’s +4 was duplicated by Westbrook, who entered Week 7 without a red zone target throughout the entire season, but has now accumulated a whopping eight in his last three games. Westbrook accomplished that by receiving four targets in Weeks 7-8 then accruing four more in Week 10 after the Jaguars returned from their bye.

Adams, Zay Jones, and Julio Jones each captured three additional red zone targets in Week 10. For Adams, it represented his highest one-week total since he collected five targets in Week 6 against San Francisco. He has also received at least one red zone target in eight of his nine games this season. Four of the targets that Zay Jones has accumulated have been distributed in his last two games. As for Julio, those were his first red zone targets since Week 1 - which is arguably the most amazing stat of the week.

Snap Counts  

DeAndre Hopkins is once again the leader in overall snaps for the season at the wide receiver position 99.4%. He's followed by Thielen (96.4%), Woods (96.3%), Beckham (95.5%), Brown (94.5%), Shepard (94.5%), Adams (93.4%), Agholor (91.6%), Landry (91.1%) and Golladay (90.3%). No other receiver has accumulated a season-long count that has eclipsed 90%, although Fitzgerald and Cooks are just below that number.

It is hardly shocking that Hopkins continues to pace his position in this category, as he began the season by playing on 99% of Houston’s snaps in Week 1, then performed on 100% of the snaps in every game from Weeks 2-7. The only factor that has kept him from being on the field to this point of the season was Houston's bye in Week 10. Otherwise, he very likely would have led all receivers in this category in Week 10.

Instead, it is Doug Baldwin that has this distinction, after playing on 99% of Seattle's offensive snaps. He was joined by 20 other receivers who also reached 90%. Included in that grouping are Woods 98%, Julio Jones 97%, Amendola 97%, Cooks 97%, Jeffrey 97%, Golladay 96%, Fitzgerald 96%, Kenny Stills 96%, and Quincy Enunwa 96%. Beckham, Shepard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Tyler Boyd, Allen Robinson, and Kendrick Bourne all reached 95%.

Largest Increases And Decreases

Not only did Baldwin lead all receivers in Week 10, but that was his highest snap count percentage of the season. He had previously performed on 70% of the Seahawks' snaps during the season, although his percentage had been trending upward since Week 6 (75.4%, 85.7%, 88.9%). This was also Baldwin's highest count of the year.

The 95.6% count for Stills established a new season best and was his highest percentage since Week 1. A groin injury had sidelined him in Week 8 and limited him to just 49% of the Dolphins snaps in Week 9. However, Stills was able to capture a snap count that was relatively even with teammate Danny Amendola, who continued his four-game streak of playing on at least 96% of Miami's snaps.

Kenny Golladay’s inclusion among the top 10 for the season is significant, and his 95% snap count since Week 7 has vaulted him onto that level. Two of his three highest counts of the year have occurred during the Lions’ last two contests (97.1%, 96.2%), and he should continue to collect favorable totals in the weeks that remain. Landry, Thomas, and Marvin Jones all experienced a sizable drop in their percentages - but there is no reason for concern given the production of Thomas, and the importance of each receiver to their teams.

Five Things That I Noticed

1. While the list of leaders in overall targets since Week 6 is largely similar to the names that can be found in the season-long list, it is noteworthy that both Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon are among the top five, and that Danny Amendola resides in the top 10. Edelman's 47 targets during that sequence tie him with Julio Jones for second overall, and are just one less than Jarvis Landry. Gordon is fifth overall with 44 targets, just one behind Mike Evans. Beckham is sixth (43), followed by Amendola and Tyreek Hill (41), an then Davante Adams and Brandin Cooks with 39. Jones, Beckham, and Adams all managed to attain those totals despite having their bye weeks interspersed within that five-week span.

2. In Cleveland’s first two games with Freddie Kitchens as offensive coordinator, the target breakdown for wide receivers has been Landry 12 (7, 5), Antonio Callaway 7 (5, 2), Breshad Perriman 8 (6, 2), Rashard Higgins 5 (4, 1), and Damion Ratley 4 (4, 0). Prior to Kitchens’ ascension into play-calling responsibilities, Landry had averaged 11.75 targets per game and had attained double-digit targets in seven of the Browns’ eight games (15, 7, 15, 10, 10, 10, 15, 12). Callaway had averaged 6-per-game (1, 4, 10, 9, 5, 11, 2, 6), Higgins had received 4.6-per-game (4, 7, 3, 5, 4), and Ratley had averaged 3-per-game while performing in three contests (8, 3, 4). Perriman made his debut with the Browns in Week 7 and collected two targets before Kitchens’ assumed his current role (1, 1). Duke Johnson has led the team with 13 targets during the two-game span (9, 4), after averaging just 3.6 targets-per-game in Weeks 1-8.

3. Anyone who drafted Corey Davis has experienced highly productive performances while also enduring weeks with discouraging results. But even when his output has been disappointing, opportunity has not been an issue during the season. He has performed on 88% of Tennessee's offensive snaps, which is 14th among all wide receivers. Davis also possesses the collection of favorable numbers in targets and red zone targets that were mentioned previously. However, placing them here again provides an excellent source of reference for anyone who is considering either selling or buying him. Davis is now tied for 14th with A.J. Green with 76 targets for the season, and is now averaging 8.4 targets per game. He has captured double-digit targets in four different games, including Tennessee's two most recent matchups in Weeks 9 and 10. He is also tied for 10th among all wide receivers with 13 red zone targets after collecting seven during the Titans' last three contests, and there are only four receivers who have been targeted inside the 10-yard line with more frequency than the eight that have been distributed to him.

4. Even though you may not be inclined to expend energy and time perusing receiving stats for Buffalo’s receivers, it should be noted that Zay Jones has recently been trending favorably in multiple categories, beginning with the 38 targets that he had collected during the Bills’ last five games (7.6 per game). For some perspective, that ties him with Michael Thomas, Larry Fitzgerald, and Robert Woods. Jones is also one of the 18 receivers that have attained double-digit red zone targets, on the strength of those four targets that he has collected during his last two contests. Jones has also been targeted inside the opponents' 10-yard line in two consecutive weeks, and his 566 offensive snaps place him ninth among all wide receivers. This is not a recommendation to lock him in as a starter - but there is a distinct consistency in his recent numbers, and he deserves far more consideration by fantasy owners than he has received.

5. As we check in on the rookies following their week 10 performances, the 95% snap count of Valdes-Scantling led the collection of newcomers, followed by Christian Kirk (89%). However, Antonio Callaway's 506 snaps are easily the most throughout the season, with Michael Gallup a distant second (363). Gallup's four highest counts of the season have occurred during the Cowboys last four games (80.8%, 84.8%, 79.7%, 84.1%) and it would not be surprising to see his 3.4 target per game average begin to rise. Callaway also leads overall targets (55), but the recent opportunities for Kirk (52) and Calvin Ridley (49) have been less sporadic, which has allowed them to close the gap. Anthony Miller continues to lead all rookie receivers with seven red zone targets, followed by Ridley, Gallup, and Valdes-Scantling with five.

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