Wide Receiver Touchdown Risers for Fantasy Football - Progression Candidates

February 8, 2025

Touchdowns are an important part of fantasy football, but they're hard to predict and there are outliers every year. Which receivers will score more touchdowns in 2025?

Sometimes, it would be nice if fantasy football players did exactly what their volume expected them to do. For example, if a quarterback has the most pass and red-zone pass attempts, they'll also have the most touchdowns. It only makes sense. That, unfortunately, is not how life or fantasy football works.

Guys run hot. Guys run cold. They're lucky or unlucky. It's the nature of sports. There's no escaping that reality. That means every year, some players score more touchdowns than they should, and guys who score fewer touchdowns than they should.

This article will identify several receivers who will score more touchdowns in 2025. Identifying these players can help fantasy managers know which players to target for the following season. If you'd like to access our Premium tools and articles, use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10 percent discount.

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

30 percent of Hill’s targets in 2024 came from Tyler Huntley, Skylar Thompson, or Tim Boyle. These combined for a 63.5 percent completion percentage, 1,169 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions. They had a 6.0 yards per attempt average. Their quarterback rating was below 80.0.

Before we get too far on Hill, that context is critical for understanding his 2024 season. Also, Hill was dealing with a broken wrist for the entire season. These contextual circumstances must be taken into consideration when reflecting on his season.

He had a down season, but some of that can be attributed to our discussion. Miami also dealt with significant issues on its offensive line, negatively affecting how much time Tua Tagovailoa had to throw. This took away the deep ball from Miami’s offense. On top of that, Hill got a little unlucky.

He was 16th in targets (121), sixth in red-zone targets (36), and seventh in end-zone targets (15). Based on that utilization, we’d expect him to finish inside the top 12 for touchdowns, right? He didn’t, though. No, he didn’t even come close to that.

He finished 28th in touchdowns with just six. From 2022-23, Hill had 12 touchdowns from 35 yards or more. In 2024, he had one in Week 1. His other five touchdowns all came inside the 15-yard line. He had seven touchdowns from 2022-23 inside the 15-yard line.

From 2022-23, Hill had a 5.9 percent touchdown rate. That was despite scoring seven touchdowns on 170 targets in 2022 (4.1 percent). For his career, his touchdown rate is 7.0 percent. For the four years before 2024 (2020-23), Hill’s touchdown rate was 6.9 percent. This year, it was just 4.9 percent. With better health from Miami’s offensive line, Tagovailoa, and better luck, Hill’s touchdown rate should rebound in 2025.

Malik Nabers, New York Giants

Unlike Hill and others on this list, we can look at previous seasons to say, “Look! This is their career average. It’ll get better!” But with a rookie, we can’t do that. We can only make an educated guess that it will.

Nabers finished second in overall targets with 165. He had 33 red-zone targets (11th) and 10 end-zone targets (24th). The volume and the utilization near the end zone were solid. Given his overall target share, north of 30 percent, we can conclude that if the Giants have more scoring opportunities next season, his red- and end-zone target total will increase.

This year, the Giants finished 29th in completion percentage (61.9 percent), 32nd in passing touchdowns (15), 32nd in touchdown passing rate (2.5 percent), and 30th in quarterback rating (77.8). They were 28th in red-zone trips (44) and 32nd in how often they scored a touchdown once inside the red zone (43.2 percent).

Better quarterback play will improve all of those numbers. However, better quarterback play is not guaranteed. However, with numbers that bad, it’s a good bet to expect them to be better, even if they are not significantly better.

Nabers finished 18th in touchdowns with seven. Given his overall volume and number of red-zone targets, Nabers should’ve been expected to finish with a bit more. Nabers’ touchdown rate could significantly improve if we factor in a quarterback upgrade.

Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns

Jeudy had an exciting 2024 season. It was his first season with the Browns, and he dealt with Deshaun Watson’s incompetence for far too long. Then, Jameis Winston started, and everything turned around. Winston started seven games for the Browns. In those seven games, Jeudy had 69 targets and three touchdowns. In the other 10, Jeudy had 76 targets and one touchdown.

Surprisingly, Jeudy received more red-zone and end-zone targets from the band of non-Jameis Winston quarterbacks. Of the three touchdowns he scored with Winston under center, they came from 89, 70, and 35 yards out. His sole other touchdown came from six yards out from Watson. Winston targeted Jeudy in the red zone on 10.7 percent of his red-zone attempts.

That helps explain why Jeudy fell so short in the touchdown department. The non-Winston quarterbacks didn’t move the football and were dreadful passers. Winston didn’t target Jeudy near the end zone. However, given his utilization, we’d still have expected him to finish with more touchdowns than he did.

He was seventh in targets (142), 24th in red-zone targets (25), and 24th in end-zone targets. Despite this, he finished 48th in touchdowns with four. He should enter 2025 as the team's undisputed No. 1 receiver, and he’ll likely receive better quarterback play, at least for half the season.

Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

I will keep betting on Nacua to score more touchdowns until he does. He had just six touchdowns last year on 160 targets. That’s a 3.7 percent touchdown rate. Somehow, this year, it got worse. He scored just three times on 103 targets. That was the 32nd-most targets but 60th in receiving touchdowns among receivers.

His red-zone and end-zone utilization wasn’t -- he finished 50th in both categories -- but this elite player plays with an elite play-caller, an excellent quarterback, and a potent offense. I don’t believe, for a second, that Nacua is someone who can’t or won’t score touchdowns.

He will break out and score 12 or more in one of these years. I’d bet that will happen in 2025. His talent, role, coach, and quarterback are all too good for him to continue to score so few touchdowns.

George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers

In his first two seasons in the NFL, Pickens caught passes from Kenny Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph. Despite this, he somehow managed to have a higher touchdown rate (4.7 percent) with that trio than he did this past year with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields (3.0 percent).

Say what you want about Wilson, but in 2023, he finished with a 5.8 percent touchdown rate (third highest) and 26 touchdowns (ninth most). Wilson wasn’t great, but he was better than the last three quarterbacks Pickens caught passes from. How, then, could his touchdown rate have gotten worse?

Bad luck. He finished 30th in targets (100), 16th in red-zone targets (29), and 17th in end-zone targets (11). Despite the solid utilization, he had just three touchdowns, finishing 60th. His expected touchdown rate was 6.6 percent based on his 2024 utilization, meaning he underperformed by over 50 percent. Regardless of who the quarterback is in 2025, Pickens' touchdown rate and overall touchdowns should increase.

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys

Like Hill, Lamb went through it in 2024. Dak Prescott missed half of the season. Lamb also dealt with a shoulder injury late in the season that forced him to miss the year's final weeks. He was a victim of circumstance, and it's essential to consider that when deciphering his 2024 season.

During the first seven games with Prescott, Lamb scored four touchdowns on 68 targets. In his final seven, he only scored twice on 68 targets. His touchdown rate was just under 5.5 percent with Prescott, but that dropped to 2.9 percent with the team's backups, indicating his touchdown rate dropped by almost 50 percent.

For the season, Lamb finished sixth in total targets (146), 21st in red-zone targets (26), and 17th in end-zone targets (11). Despite this utilization, he finished 28th in touchdowns with six. Lamb received 65 percent of his red-zone targets and 64 percent of his end-zone targets from Prescott, indicating he was significantly negatively affected by the play of his backup quarterbacks.

Lamb's 2024 touchdown rate was 3.9 percent. His touchdown rate with Prescott in 2024 was just under 5.5 percent. From 2021-23, in 44 games that Prescott and Lamb both started, he had a 6.4 percent touchdown rate. With Prescott and Lamb both healthy in 2025, Lamb looks like one of the best rebound bets for next season.

Top 10 WRs in expected receiving TDs *over the last 2 seasons*

1. Ja'Marr Chase (21.3)
2. Davante Adams (20.6)
3. CeeDee Lamb (20.3)
4. Mike Evans (19.7)
5. Tyreek Hill (19.2)
6. Amon-Ra St. Brown (17.6)
7. Justin Jefferson (16.8)
8. Courtland Sutton (16.7)
9. Jordan Addison…

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) January 21, 2025

Lamb has only scored 18 touchdowns in the past two seasons, two fewer than his expected touchdowns over the past two seasons, as evidenced by the tweet above. More importantly, he scored just six touchdowns this past season, making him an obvious candidate for better touchdown luck in 2025.

DJ Moore, Chicago Bears

Moore dealt with terrible quarterback play and poor coaching. Caleb Williams was one of the most inaccurate passers in 2024, and Chicago's first offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, was fired midway through the season. Context is everything. While Williams will return in 2025, he'll now be coached by Ben Johnson, formerly the offensive coordinator of the Detroit Lions.

In his three years as playcaller, Ben Johnson's Lions ranked:

5th in play success rate
3rd in plays per gm
3rd in yards per play
2nd in EPA/play
1st in 3-and-out rate
1st in yards per drive
1st in points per drive
1st in points scored

— #AskFFT (@daverichard) January 22, 2025

Jared Goff completed 67.3 percent of his passes under Johnson in the red zone. Williams completed only 50 percent. If we assume Johnson improves Williams' overall play, his red-zone efficiency, and the passing attack in general, buying stock in the Chicago passing offense isn't a bad idea. This would be enough to buy into Moore scoring more touchdowns in 2025, but there are other reasons to buy that argument.

He finished ninth in targets (137), 14th in red-zone targets (30), and 50th in end-zone targets (six). He finished 28th in touchdowns (six). Based on his overall target volume and red-zone utilization, Moore should have been expected to score more than he did in 2024.

In 2023, his touchdown rate in Chicago was 5.9 percent, and he scored eight times. In 2022, his touchdown rate in his final season in Carolina was 5.9 percent. He found the end zone seven times. This year, he only scored six times, and his touchdown rate was 4.3 percent.

Keenan Allen scored seven touchdowns in 2024 and seemed a favorite of Williams, especially near the end zone. Allen is a free agent this offseason, and if he signs elsewhere or retires, Williams will be forced to find another go-to player near the end zone. That'll increase Moore's scoring potential as well.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks

Seattle will have a new offensive coordinator in 2025. That should be considered favorable for Geno Smith and his pass-catchers. From 2022-23, Smith's touchdown rate was 4.6 percent. In 2022, his touchdown rate was 5.2 percent. It was 4.0 percent in 2023, but that fell even further this past season, down to 3.6 percent.

Smith should be expected to throw for more touchdowns than last season. Smith finished seventh in pass attempts per game and sixth in passing yards per game but just 21st in touchdowns per game.

Any improvement from Smith will have a positive impact on JSN. Considering Smith's shortcomings in the touchdown department, it should be no surprise that JSN suffered the same fate. He finished 11th in targets (133), 24th in red-zone targets (25), and 17th in end-zone targets (11). His volume and utilization near the end zone should have resulted in him finishing with more than just six touchdowns (28th).

If the new offensive coordinator can help Smith be more successful in the red zone, JSN will pay dividends. Smith's red-zone completion percentage was just 52.5 percent. Interestingly, JSN scored just one touchdown on 55 targets from Weeks 1-7. Why is that timeline meaningful?

DK Metcalf played the first seven games of the year before suffering an injury and missing the next three weeks. From Weeks 8-18, JSN had five touchdowns on 82 targets. That includes two touchdowns on 20 targets in the two games Metcalf missed and three touchdowns on 62 targets once Metcalf returned. JSN benefited from Metcalf's absence and from the appearance of him being potentially less than 100 percent to end the season. Or, maybe JSN supplanted Metcalf as Seattle's No. 1 receiver.

Either way, JSN looks like a prime candidate to score more touchdowns in 2025, and fantasy managers should be betting on an even bigger Year 3 from him. Hopefully, Seattle will focus on its offensive line so Smith is not under as much pressure as he was this past season. This will help the team's offense, increasing scoring opportunities and efficiency.

Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders dealt with some of the worst quarterback play in the NFL this past season. Las Vegas finished 28th in passing touchdowns (19), 30th in touchdown passing rate (3.0 percent), and 27th in quarterback rating (82.4). It was just 26th in red-zone trips and 27th in the percentage of red-zone trips resulting in a touchdown (48.9 percent). The Raiders used Aidan O'Connell and Gardner Minshew II as quarterbacks this season. Based on the team's quarterback play and offensive efficiency, fantasy managers should expect it to improve in 2025.

The Raiders fired Antonio Pierce and hired Pete Carroll. Rumors have suggested that Carroll might have an interest in Russell Wilson. While he leaves a lot to be desired, he's significantly better than the quarterbacks they had to endure in 2024. Meyers is coming off the best season of his career. He had 126 targets (15th most), 24 red-zone targets (29th), and 12 end-zone targets (13th).

Despite these numbers, Meyers scored just four touchdowns. This ranked 48th among receivers. Minshew completed just 42.5 percent of his red-zone attempts this past season. Meyers' expected touchdowns were 6.5, compared to the four he scored. A lot is attributed to Minshew's dreadfulness inside the red zone. If the Raiders get better quarterback play and coaching, Meyers will find the end zone more in 2025 than he did in 2024.

Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans

Ridley finished 20th in targets (113), 24th in red-zone targets (25), and 48th in touchdowns (four). Based on that volume, Ridley should have scored more. However, he had just two end-zone targets. This ranked 104th. As a member of the Jaguars in 2023, Ridley had 22 end-zone targets, tied for the most in the NFL among receivers.

Like Meyers, Ridley should benefit from an improved offense and quarterback play. Tennessee finished 27th in red-zone trips (45) and 24th in how many of those trips resulted in a touchdown (53.3 percent).

Tennessee also dealt with poor quarterback play from Will Levis and Mason Rudolph. Its new general manager has stated that Levis will have a chance but it is going to add a quarterback. The Titans have the No. 1 overall pick, and if they take a quarterback, we should expect more scoring opportunities in 2025.

No matter what they do with the first overall pick, they'll add a quarterback who will have the potential to provide better play. While Ridley's four touchdowns aren't super surprising, considering he had just two end-zone targets, more scoring opportunities will result in more end-zone targets.

He also finished in the top 24 among targets and red-zone targets but just 48th in touchdowns. Despite the almost nonexistent end-zone targets, Ridley still had plenty of overall and red-zone targets to score more than four times.

If the offense picks up and he gets more end-zone opportunities, Ridley should be trusted to score more in 2025.

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