Under the Radar Wide Receiver Signings – Risers and Fallers

May 5, 2022

Rob's WR risers and fallers that went under the radar in 2022 NFL free agency. These players could be sleepers or busts in fantasy football based on landing spot.

The start of free agency officially kicks off the start of the new NFL season and while most fans are glued to their favorite franchise and who they might add and in some cases, all the players they do not sign, plenty of low-level signings, end up falling through the cracks. As it relates to fantasy football, we're locked into knowing where all the biggest names sign and the impact players, but once again, this can often lead to some players getting missed.

Not every signing involves a stud or a Pro Bowler, but that doesn't mean these players aren't important to their NFL franchises or that they can't be fantasy football assets this upcoming season. While it may be unlikely any of these under-the-radar signings end up in your starting lineup on a regular basis, we all need bye-week replacements and injury insurance if our primary players get hurt.

There are a few mid-to-low level players that seen their value fluctuate this offseason based on where they decided to continue living out their NFL career. Who are some players fantasy managers should be keeping their eye on as we get closer to our drafts and who are some players that we should largely be ignoring now? Let's get started.

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Risers

Russell Gage, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This was a great addition by Tampa Bay. For starters, Antonio Brown is gone and they needed a third wide receiver for their 11-personnel sets, which they're in the vast majority of the time. Secondly, Chris Godwin tore his ACL late last season and it's unknown if he'll be ready for the start of the season. Plus, there's always the risk that Godwin isn't quite the same player he was, at least not right away in 2022. Gage provides Tampa and Tom Brady with some insurance and good insurance at that.

In 2020, with Gage operating as the third wheel in an offense that featured Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, still managed to finish with 72 receptions for 786 yards and four touchdowns. His WR37 finish isn't going to win any leagues, but he can be a quality bench player fantasy managers can take comfort in having as a backup option. Gage's 2020 season might end up being a good indicator of what can be expected in 2022. He'll be playing behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin – assuming he's healthy – which is a similar situation to when he was with the Falcons. Granted, Julio did end up missing several games in 2020, which gave Gage the opportunity to start as the No. 2 receiver opposite Calvin Ridley, but he still made the most of his opportunity.

In 2021, after Julio Jones was traded to Tennessee and Calvin Ridley ended up leaving the team for personal reasons, Gage became the team's No. 1 receiver. Rookie Kyle Pitts operated as the primary target, but Gage was very much involved. He finished 2021 with 66 receptions, 770 yards, and four touchdowns. That's less than his 2020 season, but this past season, Gage missed three games. On a per-game basis, Gage increased his receptions per game and yards per game.

While fantasy managers shouldn't be expecting a big season from Gage in 2022 – he's not going to be Antonio Brown – he could be a quality WR4 for fantasy managers. If Godwin isn't ready for the start of the season or is brought along slowly, Gage could even provide a few WR2 level weeks early on.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs

JuJu signing with the Chiefs maybe wasn't quite an under-the-radar move, but at the time Tyreek Hill was still in Kansas City and Smith-Schuster was entering a situation where he was the clear No. 3 receiver. Could he have become a back-end WR2 with Hill and Kelce both commanding a 25% target share? It's probably a lot less likely than we want to admit, but none of that matters now. After Hill was traded to Miami, Smith-Schuster immediately slid right into the No. 2 target role behind Kelce.

Fantasy managers often associate Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense as a downfield passing attack and that was right, for a while. However, that switched in 2021 and Mahomes started having to attack defenses differently as they sought to slow down the big plays in the Chiefs' offense. After losing Hill, the Chiefs signed former Packers receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He's still a bit raw as a receiver, but he does bring one thing to the table – speed. Between MVS and Kelce, the Chiefs will still be able to threaten teams deep. That will leave quite a bit of operating room for the former Steeler.

Lowest Yards Per Target among WRs with 120+ targets over the last 2 seasons:

JuJu Smith-Schuster: 6.15
Robby Anderson: 6.57
Diontae Johnson: 6.64

Very curious to see what the post-Big Ben era looks like for JuJu and Diontae.

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) April 9, 2022

For the last several years in Pittsburgh, JuJu has largely operated as an exclusive slot receiver who functioned entirely as a short-yardage option. That type of role, to some extent, lacks upside, but he does come with a fairly safe floor in any PPR scoring leagues. Fantasy managers should expect JuJu to flirt with a 90+ reception season and even if those targets come with a low average depth of target, the volume should be there and there's a good deal of touchdown upside in Kansas City.

Smith-Schuster has WR2 upside this season, especially in PPR leagues. Even though he's been a bit of a disappointment since his monster sophomore season, fantasy managers shouldn't forget about him in their upcoming drafts.

Jamison Crowder, Buffalo Bills

Crowder has been stuck in Washington and with the Jets for his seven-year career, but he's been a solid player throughout that time. While he's never had more than 850 yards, he's been a dependable slot receiver. He has six seasons of 50 catches or more and five seasons with at least 600 yards. Now, that's not going to win any fantasy leagues, but it is someone who could become a solid bye week replacement and depth option in PPR leagues.

Teams with the most available targets & their additions so far:

Packers 282 (???)
Cardinals 275 (???)
Titans 242 (Robert Woods & Austin Hooper)
Buccaneers 229 (Russell Gage)
Falcons 229 (???)
Browns 229 (Amari Cooper)
Bills 225 (Jamison Crowder, O.J. Howard)

— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) March 22, 2022

With the departures of Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley, there are plenty of opportunities to be had in Buffalo. While the expectation is Gabriel Davis will start on the outside opposite Stefon Diggs, the slot receiver role is wide open. That figures to be where Crowder starts the 2022 season. In the last three seasons, Beasley has averaged 108 targets, 77 catches, 813 yards, and four touchdowns. If Crowder is able to step in and provide fantasy managers with what Beasley did, he'll be a nice late-round target as a reliable bench player with some upside. Beasley finished as the WR26 in 2020, so there is some upside too, although fantasy managers shouldn't be expecting that.

Landing in Buffalo was really the best-case scenario for Crowder and it gives him a path towards fantasy relevance. He'll be playing with the best quarterback and most explosive offense of his career and it really isn't close.

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Fallers

Cedrick Wilson Jr., Miami Dolphins

When free agency began and Wilson signed with the Dolphins, he was a low-level sleeper. He played well in Dallas last season and with the expectation DeVante Parker would be let go or released, Walker seemed to have some untapped potential in Miami if Tagovailoa could turn the corner. That didn't last very long as Miami made a big splash and traded for Tyreek Hill.

Now with Jaylen Waddle, Hill, and Mike Gesicki in town, Wilson figures to be the fourth or maybe even fifth-best target option behind Chase Edmonds on some weeks. Whereas Gage and Crowder could be a nice bench or bye week option, Wilson offers no such luxury. The Hill acquisition took Wilson from a low-level sleeper to irrelevant. He needs an injury to become someone fantasy managers want on their rosters. He's someone to avoid entirely.

D.J. Chark, Detroit Lions

This was an excellent free agent addition for the Lions. Chark brings a deep field threat the Lions didn't have last season. The problem with fantasy football is it's unlikely to lead to much success. He'll be a better real-life football player than a fantasy one this season. Jared Goff has really struggled to throw the ball down the field the past two seasons and that's what Chark is – he's a deep ball receiver.

Goff ranked last among qualifying passers last season in intended air yards per attempt which shows just how unwilling he was to push the ball down the field. Chark has never been a big target earner and with T.J. Hockenson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and now Jameson Williams, Chark may struggle to get consistent targets.

Chark is likely someone who will provide a few "boom" weeks when he happens to catch a deep ball from Goff, but his consistency is going to wane in and out all season. It'll be difficult for fantasy managers to predict when one of his big weeks will come. They're likely to be random. Chark's signing in Detroit was an excellent football signing, but fantasy managers shouldn't get too excited about the fantasy football prospects.

More Fantasy Football Analysis