X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Why Luis Castillo Will Be a Top Ten Pitcher in 2020

Luis Castillo is an awesome pitcher.

He finally put it all together in 2019 and had the season we all have waited for. In 190.2 innings he produced a 3.40 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 18.8 K-BB%, and elite 15.9 SwStr%. Castillo finished the year as the 14th best pitcher in baseball according to Razzball’s player rater.

While that is an amazing feat in itself, Castillo isn’t done yet and could be taking another step forward.

Featured Promo: Get ANY MLB Premium Pass for 10% off the regular price with code BALLER. Exclusive access to our Draft Kit, Nick Mariano's #1 accuracy rankings, Ariel Cohen's #1 accuracy ATC projections, customized advice in the Team Sync platform, Live Draft Assistant, 15 in-season lineup tools, customized rankings and much more! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Underlying Stats

When it comes to ERA metrics it looks like Castillo should regress in 2020. His 3.40 ERA came with a 3.70 FIP, 3.48 xFIP, and 3.95 SIERA. Those are only starting points though, while those metrics are great in their own right we still need to investigate and dive even deeper. 

Castillo raised his strikeout rate from 23.3% to 28.9% but with it also came an increase in walk percentage from 6.9% to 10.1%. Castillo has had an average walk rate of 8.7% and even in the minors he only touched double digits one. Thus leading us to expect that number to come down. 

As far as his already impressive 28.9% strikeout rate we should see a bump in that as well. His SwStr% last year was at 15.9%. K% and SwStr% correlate well together and the rule of thumb is to double a pitchers SwStr% and you get the K% they deserve. Which means Castillo’s strikeout rate should breach 30% next year. Overall that means Castillo should walk fewer batters while also producing more strikeouts. Expect his 18.8 K-BB% to increase, and what stat is one of the best indicators of ERA? K-BB%. 

 

Arsenal: Changeup

Overall

The greatness of this pitch is almost impossible to describe. In 2019 it produced a 26.6 SwStr%, 46.8 K%, .128 batting average against and 26.6 pVAL. In terms of changeups, he ranked first in all of those categories. He also had the most swinging strikes in the chase zone when using an offspeed pitch. In other words, hitters chased this pitch a ton. 

Movement

In terms of movement, this pitch is above league average in both vertical and horizontal movement. This pitch starts off on the left side of the plate and starts to move with a horizontal movement of  -9.35, while also dipping 1.23 inches. The two movements combined leave hitters standing at the plate dumbfounded. 

Location

In terms of location Castillo places this pitch perfectly. He paints the outside corner a ton, jamming right-handed hitters at their knees. He actually lives under the zone with this pitch as it provided a mere 24.6 Zone%. That’s okay though because it is his swing and miss pitch and his chase pitch. He has an insane 50.2 O-Swing% with this pitch.

Splits

Luis Castillo liked to go to his changeup against both right-handed (RHH) and left-handed hitters (LHH), but he did throw it against LHH more. He used it 24% of the time versus RHH and 38% of the time versus LHH. The funny thing is, it was more productive against RHH so it might be smart if he upped its overall usage overall. A fun fact about his splits is he threw 43 changeups against RHH in the month of July and didn’t give up a single hit.

 

Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball

Overall

This is Castillo’s second most used pitch. He throws it 96.4 MPH and produces above-average whiff rates. Overall this is a decent pitch but probably the weakest in his arsenal. While it does have an above-average Barrel rate its xwOBAcon is slightly worse than average.

Movement

At times Castillo does pump up this pitch into the high 90’s and creates a ton of vertical movement. Overall in 2019, the vertical movement of this pitch went from 6.24 to 7.92 from the beginning of the year to the end. While the vertical rise went up, his results weren’t much better. 

Location

This seems to be the reason Castillo’s four-seam isn’t producing the great results it could be. When Castillo puts this high and tight he creates a ton of whiffs, but a lot of the time he does leave this pitch over the plate. Increased command on this pitch could do wonders for Castillo.

Splits

Against RHH this pitch is a lot more successful as it produced a .352 xwOBAcon, 4.2 Barrel%, and 43.8 GB%. Meanwhile, against LHH it produced a .493 xwOBAcon, 8.3 Barrel%, and 31.7 GB%. For some reason, Castillo throws it more versus LHH and maybe he should rely on his two-seam more.

 

Arsenal: Two-Seam Fastball

Overall

This pitch provides an insane amount of weak contact. It produced a 3.6 Barrel% and 71.4 GB%, both well above average. In fact, that ground ball percentage was second highest in the league. Castillo’s two-seam fastball was one of only two pitches in the league that produced a GB% over 65.0% and Barrel% under 4.0%.

Movement

This pitch has a ton of movement both horizontally and vertically. This pitch is very much like his changeup except it comes in at 96.5 MPH. The pitch starts off at the left side of the plate and quickly slides over to the right. A ton of movement and a very pretty pitch to watch.

Location

Castillo locates this well and exemplifies both command and control when it comes to this pitch. He loves to throw it low and in on RHH much like his changeup. Now imagine facing him with a pitch the runs in on your knees and you don’t know if the pitch will be coming in at 96.5 MPH or 87.2 MPH. Good luck.

Splits

Castillo doesn’t use this pitch that much against LHH. Deservedly so as it isn’t nearly as effective as it is against RHH. Against RHH this pitch produced some gaudy numbers with a .261 xwOBAcon, 1.3 Barrel%, and 75.0 GB%. His pitch splits for this pitch seem to be spot on.

 

Arsenal: Slider

Overall

This was Castillo’s second swing and miss pitch in 2019. And it is a very good one at that. It produced a 19.6 SwStr%, 37.7 O-Swing%, and .209 xBA. With similar speed to his changeup, it makes his slider/changeup combo very tough to deal with. 

Movement

This pitch doesn’t have a ton of movement but it does have some loop to it. His slider is more of a mini curveball and breaks just enough to miss bats. While it would be nice to see some more movement it is hard to argue with his results.

Location

Castillo locates this pitch really well and actually puts it in the opposite direction of his changeup. He likes to throw it on the outside corner against RHH and commands it very well. 

Splits

As far as left/right splits this pitch is a lot like his two-seam fastball as he throws this mainly against RHH. There isn’t much difference in this pitch between LHH and RHH besides the groundball rate. Against RHH the groundball rate was 61.0% while against LHH it was 30.0%.

 

What Did We Learn?

Overall Luis Castillo doesn’t have a lot of weaknesses. While his four-seam seems to be the one weakness it isn’t even that bad of a pitch it is average. But with three well-above-average pitches in his two-seam, changeup, and slider Castillo seems primed to take another step forward. Plus don’t forget that his walk rate should drop and his strikeout rate should rise! Expect Castillo to finish as a top ten pitcher and to stay there for years to come.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!




More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nick Senzel6 hours ago

Expected To Miss 3-4 Weeks
Jon Gray6 hours ago

To Start On Sunday
Justin Steele6 hours ago

Likely To Go On Injured List
Anfernee Simons8 hours ago

Out Against The Heat
Max Kepler9 hours ago

X-Rays Come Back Negative On Max Kepler
Keldon Johnson9 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Justin Steele9 hours ago

Has Left-Hamstring Tightness
Matisse Thybulle9 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Davis Bertans9 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Friday
Jusuf Nurkic9 hours ago

Questionable Against Oklahoma City
Dario Saric9 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Noah Clowney9 hours ago

Probable For Nets Friday
Jonathan Kuminga9 hours ago

Questionable For Warriors Friday
Jerami Grant9 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Friday
Dennis Smith10 hours ago

Jr. Probable For Friday
Lauri Markkanen10 hours ago

Questionable Against Houston
Toumani Camara10 hours ago

Will Not Play Friday
Justin Steele10 hours ago

Exits Thursday's Start
Richaun Holmes10 hours ago

Out Versus Pistons
Cameron Johnson10 hours ago

Out Against Chicago On Friday
Luka Doncic10 hours ago

On The Injury Report For Friday
David Bednar10 hours ago

Still Dealing With Lat Injury
Deandre Ayton10 hours ago

Is Questionable For Friday
Rudy Gobert10 hours ago

Might Miss Friday's Game
Tyus Jones10 hours ago

Unavailable For Friday
Zeke Nnaji10 hours ago

Ruled Out Against Minnesota
Jaden Ivey10 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Rhys McKee10 hours ago

Searching For First UFC Win
Anthony Edwards10 hours ago

Uncertain For Friday Night
Chidi Njokuani11 hours ago

Drops Back Down To Welterweight At UFC Atlantic City
Kyle Nelson11 hours ago

An Underdog Again At UFC Atlantic City
Bill Algeo11 hours ago

Eyes Sixth UFC Win
Joaquin Buckley11 hours ago

Gets Ranked Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Vicente Luque11 hours ago

Gets Short-Notice Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Eduardo Rodriguez12 hours ago

Could Throw Off Mound In 5-7 Days
Max Kepler12 hours ago

Leaves On Opening Day With Injury
Nick Senzel12 hours ago

Suffers Broken Thumb
Jason Foley12 hours ago

Earns The Save For Tigers
Tarik Skubal13 hours ago

Tosses Six Scoreless Innings On Opening Day
Corbin Burnes13 hours ago

Pitches A Gem On Opening Day
Royce Lewis13 hours ago

Exits With Quad Injury
Max Scherzer15 hours ago

Throws Bullpen Session
Clayton Kershaw15 hours ago

"Ahead Of Things" Timetable-Wise
Walker Buehler15 hours ago

Ahead Of Schedule
Corey Seager15 hours ago

Active On Opening Day
Oneil Cruz15 hours ago

Batting Sixth On Opening Day
Bryan Reynolds17 hours ago

In Opening Day Lineup
Jordan Romano19 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Aaron Ekblad20 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov20 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto20 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin20 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard20 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins20 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist20 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear20 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Mark Hubbard2 days ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson2 days ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Akshay Bhatia2 days ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen2 days ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers2 days ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers2 days ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers2 days ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers2 days ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
Jayden Daniels2 days ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
Tank Bigsby2 days ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Josh Reynolds2 days ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Doug Ghim2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA2 days ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry2 days ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox2 days ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak2 days ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan2 days ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg2 days ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn2 days ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby2 days ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin2 days ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord2 days ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala2 days ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler2 days ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder2 days ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen2 days ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin2 days ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins2 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT3 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn3 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield3 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR3 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras3 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen3 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb3 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift3 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson3 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell3 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans3 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott3 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley3 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs3 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad3 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson3 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas4 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas4 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan4 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson4 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla4 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo4 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron4 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher4 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley4 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo5 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal5 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott5 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa5 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams5 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala5 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen5 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron5 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

2024 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions and Potential Surprises for Round 1

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With the 2024 NFL Draft fast approaching, we're digging into what might transpire on draft night. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones previews the 2024 NFL Draft and makes some BOLD Predictions about possible surprises and potential landing spots for the first round of the draft. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller!... Read More


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Early Look At Wide Receivers In 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

The upcoming NFL Draft is less than a month away. While everyone is excited for the NFL Draft, fantasy players are looking forward to the regular season. While we won’t have meaningful NFL football for months, it’s never too early to prepare for your fantasy football drafts. Last year, the fantasy football world saw multiple... Read More


Spencer Rattler, College Football Transfers

Underrated Rookie Draft Targets - Early 2024 Sleepers for Dynasty Fantasy Football

We are a month out from the NFL Draft, meaning if you are here, you are probably looking for draft content and reading up on prospects. You probably have all of the information you need on stud prospects like Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. That’s not what you’re here for.  Rookie draft season for... Read More


Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 1: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

It's finally here: the UFL season is set to kick off with two games on Saturday, March 30 and two games on Sunday, March 31. Saturday's games will be broadcast on Fox Sports while Sunday's matchups will be on ESPN. The most anticipated Week 1 matchup pits the 2023 USFL champion Birmingham Stallions against the... Read More


Jared Goff - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Will the Lions Extend Jared Goff's Contract This Offseason? 2024 NFL Outlook

Jared Goff's career in Los Angeles didn't take off like many expected after his appearance in Super Bowl LIII, and he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Goff's first season in the Motor City was terrible, but he has completely turned things around over the last two seasons. In 2022, he almost led... Read More


Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More