X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Who's #1? Making a Case for the First Overall Pick in Re-draft Leagues

Tonight's contest is a Fatal Four Way match and it is for the right to be selected number one in 2017 fantasy football drafts. This match will be contested under PPR rules and will be no disqualification!

Last year's top consensus pick is back to stake a claim for a repeat, but he'll have stiff competition from a trio of running backs this year.

As always, league rules and format matter, but for the majority of re-draft leagues, these are the players you need to consider. Without further ado, let's get this show underway!

Holiday Special! Save 50% on any Premium Pass using discount code THANKS. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESS

 

Meet Our Contestants

Le'Veon Bell (RB, PIT)

This will be Bell's fifth professional season and his third time in contention for the top overall pick. Bell is coming off his best year with weekly averages of 105.7 rushing yards and 51.3 receiving yards. He was the best non QB in fantasy football on a per game basis. If you hopped out of your Delorean and told me you saw the 2017 NFL season and that Le'Veon Bell played 16 games, this discussion would end as quickly as it began - Bell would be awarded the title without even having the match. Unbelievably, with all the advancements in science and technology, somehow time travel still eludes us. Therefore, we must look to the past in order to predict the future.

Bell entered the league in 2013, but has only once, in 2014, played all 16 games. When talking about the first player drafted, you know all four contenders are going to have strong cases, so we have to find a way to differentiate. There's no doubting Bell's production on the field. The knocks against him are largely off the field.

Bell's career got off to a delayed start because of a preseason foot injury in 2013. In 2015, he sat out the first two games of the season due to a violation of the substance abuse policy. He then tore his MCL and PCL after playing just six games. In 2016, he again sat out the start of the season because of another substance abuse policy violation. Playing for a top offense and being an elite producer whenever on the field, there is no reason to doubt his production, but through four years, we have four instances of Bell missing games due to injury or suspension. That may be enough to keep him off the throne.

 

Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)

Since I'm a Cowboys fan, Elliott should definitely be the first overall pick because the Cowboys are great and all their players are great. No? You don't like that logic? Alright, I'll be honest here - I hated the Elliott pick when the Cowboys made it. I even wrote an article about it. But while I hated the selection, I acknowledged the greatness Elliott could achieve behind what will likely go down as one of the best offensive lines in history (the combination of Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick, and Zack Martin).

The rookie somehow lived up to the hype, finishing just shy of 2,000 total yards (1631 rushing, 363 receiving). If we assume he is only going to improve as he matures, then his ceiling is almost limitless. But much like the pill Bradley Cooper's character was taking to gain his abilities, Elliott's "pill" is the Cowboys offensive line. While I don't foresee the line falling off any time soon, it did lose Ronald Leary and Doug Free without really replacing them. Zeke is the least talented of the four participants in this match (which is not to say he's untalented - he's just got some stiff competition here) and even the slightest decrease in quality of circumstances can be enough to knock a guy off the ladder that was already on the outside looking in. Elliott's ceiling is there. He is tied to an explosive offense and the reports that he will be more involved in the passing game only help, but he's likely going to come up a little short in the battle for the top spot.

 

David Johnson (RB, ARI)

If you take David Johnson's receiving stats alone, he would have finished as a mid-WR3 last season. The man plays running back. He touched the ball a whopping 373 times last year (293 on the ground, 80 in the air). He totaled over 2,000 all purpose yards (and has stated he wants to be a 1,000-1,000 player this season). He is built like a freight train. Yes, he sprained his MCL in a meaningless week 17 game last year that looked far worse than it ended up being, but other than that, Johson has never really been injured. He's Le'Veon Bell with a weaker supporting cast, but without any of the off-the-field concerns or injury risks.

No player was more consistent than DJ in 2016. He averaged over 20 fantasy points per game, posting double-digit totals in every single week. He is locked into a three-down role with arguably the weakest backups in the league. While Bell has competition for targets in Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant and Elliott shares a field with Dez Bryant (and he's also nowhere near the pass catcher Bell and DJ are), Johnson is the second best wide receiver on his team. The only guy ahead of him is 34 year old Larry Fitzgerald. Both Johnson and Bell give you a WR3 and an RB1, but DJ comes with lower risk. That gives him the ever so slight edge over Bell.

 

Antonio Brown (WR, PIT)

If David Johnson is the king of the running backs, the only other player that could potentially top him has to be a wide receiver. The lone receiver in this contest and the consensus top pick from a year ago stakes his claim to the throne once again. Antonio Brown's PPR finishes at WR since 2013: 2, 1, 1, 1. In 2014 and 2015, he outscored every running back as well. In 2016, the only players to outscore him were the other three on this list. With AB, you are getting the epitome of consistency. The man has caught over 100 balls for four straight seasons. He's just two years removed from a 193 target, 136 catch season. He is the closest thing to Jerry Rice we've ever seen. If you take Brown first overall, no one is going to fault you.

The problem with taking Brown at the top spot has nothing to do with Brown himself. At the end of the day, despite what 2015 and Zero-RB advocates may have fooled you into thinking, running backs still run fantasy football. Having an elite, consistent producer at the running back position trumps the same at wide receiver. In 2015, receivers dominated like no other year. In fact, it was the only year in the past 10 where the average top-10 running back outscored the average top-10 receiver. It was an anomaly by all accounts. The fact remains that it is easier to find receivers later in the draft than running backs. You can't replace the elite level production that the "big three" RBs provide.

 

The Verdict

It goes without saying that you can't go wrong with any of these guys. No one in your league is going to lambaste you for taking Elliott, Bell, or Brown. But the man scoring the pinfall in this match is David Johnson. With DJ, you get a running back with the elite talent, great situation, and consistency, and you don't get any of the excess baggage. If I am lucky enough to pick #1 in any of my leagues, I'm going with David Johnson and you should too.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Alex Laferriere

Records First Career Hat Trick
William Nylander

Sustains Lower-Body Injury Saturday
Zach Werenski

Unlikely to Play Sunday
Jake Evans

to Miss 4-6 Weeks
J.J. Moser

Inks Eight-Year Extension
Ajay Mitchell

Cleared to Return Sunday
Bogdan Bogdanović

Bogdan Bogdanovic Ruled Out for Sunday
Kyshawn George

Iffy for Sunday
De'Anthony Melton

Sits Out First Leg of Back-to-Back
Jaxson Hayes

Unlikely to Play Sunday
Derrick Jones Jr.

to Return From Knee Injury Sunday
Jock Landale

in Danger of Missing Another Game Sunday
Vince Williams Jr.

Won't Play Sunday
Robert Williams III

Inactive on Sunday
Jerami Grant

to Sit Out Fifth Consecutive Game
Brandin Podziemski

Probable to Play Sunday
Jakob Poeltl

to Miss Another Game Sunday
RJ Barrett

Listed as Questionable for Sunday
Paul George

Probable for Meeting With Former Team
Joel Embiid

Won't Play on Sunday
Josh Hart

to Miss at Least Two More Games
Kevin Love

Resting on Saturday
Ace Bailey

Misses Saturday's Action
Mohamed Diawara

Starting on Saturday Night
Gary Trent Jr.

Sits Out Second Straight Game
Bam Adebayo

Ruled Out Again on Saturday
TreVeyon Henderson

Clears Concussion Protocol, Will Play in Week 17
Davante Adams

Downgraded to Doubtful for Week 17
Ryan McDonagh

Misses Saturday's Action
Jordan Kyrou

Jimmy Snuggerud Back for Blues Saturday
Tanner Jeannot

Misses First Game of the Season
Rasmus Dahlin

Won't Play on Saturday
Elias Pettersson

Ready to Return Saturday
Leo Carlsson

Available Against Kings
Jack Eichel

Still Out Saturday
Ilya Sorokin

Lands on Injured Reserve
Bo Horvat

Returns to Action Saturday
Kimani Vidal

Inactive on Saturday
George Kittle

Questionable to Face the Bears in Week 17
Maxx Crosby

Done for the Season
Calvin Austin III

Ruled Out with Hamstring Injury for Week 17
Harold Fannin Jr.

Expected to Play on Sunday
Jordan Love

Ruled Out with Concussion for Saturday's Contest
George Kittle

"Likely a Game-Time Decision" on Sunday Night
A.J. Brown

Returns to Practice on Friday
Josh Allen

Trending Toward Playing Vs. Philly
CFB

Michigan Targeting Kyle Whittingham as Next Head Coach
CFB

Texas Leading Rusher Quintrevion Wisner Set to Transfer
George Kittle

Remains Sidelined During Thursday's Practice
Malik Willis

Carrying Questionable Tag for Week 17 Tilt
Jordan Love

Questionable for Saturday's Contest
Lamar Jackson

Listed as Doubtful for Week 17
Amon-Ra St. Brown

to Suit Up on Christmas Day
Rome Odunze

"Increasing Unlikely to Play" in Week 17
Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Carries Questionable Tag on Thursday
David Montgomery

Expected to Play on Christmas Day
David Montgomery

Questionable to Play With Illness
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Questionable, Expected to Play on Thursday
Pete Fairbanks

Marlins Agree on One-Year Deal
Brooks Koepka

Leaving LIV Golf
Connor McDavid

Finishes Battle of Alberta With Five Assists
Karel Vejmelka

Battling Upper-Body Injury
Alexandre Texier

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Against Bruins
Alexander Nikishin

Dealing With Apparent Ankle Injury
Denver Barkey

Exits Early Tuesday
Travis Sanheim

Pulled by Concussion Spotter Tuesday
Ryan O'Hearn

Pirates Agree on Two-Year Deal
Viktor Arvidsson

a Game-Time Decision Tuesday
CFB

Jeff Brohm, Eli Drinkwitz "Names of Interest" for Michigan Head Coach
CFB

Byrum Brown Entering Transfer Portal
CFB

Bobby Petrino Joining Bill Belichick as North Carolina's Offensive Coordinator

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP