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Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate. Week 8 was a good one for this article, as high-scoring DFS plays such as Travis Etienne, Breece Hall, A.J. Brown, and Trey McBride were featured in last week's article. Let's stay hot in Week 9!
The Week 9 slate is a unique one, as some of football's most explosive DFS performers are not available on the Main Slate. Players like Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Josh Allen are all off the board this week, which means we'll need to lean into our research to identify the best available options on this slate. This week's DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected DK points and ownership, overall upside/talent levels, and opportunity, as well as factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available on DK for Week 9.
Also, be sure to check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups -- let's dominate this slate together!
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DraftKings Quarterbacks - Week 9 DFS Picks
Dak Prescott - DAL @ PHI ($6,500)
Yes, it feels a little "chasey" to target Prescott on the heels of his best performance of the season -- a 304-yard, four-TD gem -- last week against the Rams. That said, Prescott could again be set up for success in this game environment against Philadelphia that features the Main Slate's highest projected point total, two explosive offenses, and a pass-funnel Eagles defense.
#Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has been one of the most efficient at his position from Week 6 to Week 8:
🏈 75.4 completion % - (2nd)
🏈 9.8 yards per attempt - (1st)
🏈 7.9 big-time throw % - (3rd)
🏈 0 turnover-worthy plays - (T-1st)
🏈 124.8 passer rating - (2nd)… pic.twitter.com/jzyiaU1Lka— Brandon Loree (@Brandoniswrite) November 2, 2023
If we operate under the "assumption of rational coaching", Mike McCarthy's reasons to let Dak continue to air it out this week are two-fold, as the Eagles possess one of the league's best run-stopping units, as well as one of the NFL's most beatable secondaries. Philly has allowed monster DFS days to opposing QBs such as Mac Jones, Sam Howell, and Kirk Cousins this season, so there's precedent for Prescott putting forth a ceiling-type effort against this Eagles secondary.
Philadelphia has allowed the league's third-most passing TDs (16), as well as the NFL's fourth-most passing yards (2,137) and average DK Points per game (20.7) to the QB position this season.
Derek Carr - CHI @ NO ($5,700)
I very rarely find myself landing on Carr in DFS formats, as he's the classic definition of a pocket passer with no rushing upside. However, on a slate that's without Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Tua Tagovailoa, Carr is squarely in consideration against the abysmal Chicago Bears.
The former Raider comes into Week 9 on the heels of his strongest DraftKings performance of the season against the Indianapolis Colts (21.1 DK points). He's now passed for over 300 yards and scored over 20 DK points in three straight. The fantasy community likes to dog Carr for his seemingly limitless checkdowns to Alvin Kamara, but despite his tendency to feed Kamara, he still leads the NFL in intended air yards and his average target depth is a very healthy 8.4 yards.
Derek Carr over the last 4 games..
1,147 Yards
6 Tds - 2 Ints
101.1 Avg QB ratingIt really seems like this #saints offense is finally in sync pic.twitter.com/6WMZjg1IS2
— Saints_Capital (@Saints__Capital) October 30, 2023
Carr has always shown the ability to thrive in a clean pocket and Chicago has generated zero pressure this year, which has led to a league-low 10 team sacks for the Bears. Chicago has relinquished the NFL's second-most passing TDs (17) and fourth-most passing yards (2,159) this season.
MORE TOP QB PLAYS: Jalen Hurts ($8,000); Sam Howell ($5,800)
DraftKings Running Backs - Week 9 DFS Picks
Josh Jacobs - NYG @ LV ($6,900)
I ain't exactly fired up to recommend the underachieving Jacobs, but you don't have to spend a ton of time scrolling through the RB options on this week's Main Slate to realize that the position is pretty ugly this week.
While Jacobs has been one of the biggest fantasy disappointments of the season to this point, he does have two things in his favor in Week 9 in the form of volume and matchup. The 2022 NFL rushing champ has been one of the league's most heavily utilized backs this season and ranks inside the top five at the position in carries (133), targets (43), and red zone opportunities (34).
Josh Jacobs caps off a monster drive with a TD 😤 pic.twitter.com/Q8BYjf5uVw
— ESPN (@espn) October 31, 2023
I don't look for Josh McDaniels' firing to negatively impact Jacobs' elite volume and he's been second to only Davante Adams in targets (11) when Aidan O'Connell has been under center for Vegas. Confident in his volume, Jacobs also draws a juicy matchup against a Giants defense that's been gashed by opposing RBs this season.
New York is allowing the NFL's fourth-most yards per carry (4.69) to the RB position and it's hard to imagine Big Blue's run-stopping unit will improve with the departure of stud d-linemen Leonard Williams, who was dealt to Seattle in a trade earlier this week.
Jonathan Taylor - IND @ CAR ($6,400)
Taylor's snap count stayed on the rise last week against the Saints, as he logged a season-high 61% share. He seemed to be en route to a monster day against the Saints, rushing for 94 yards on 11 carries in the first half, only to head-scratchingly garner just a single tote in the second half.
Jonathan Taylor EATING 🍽️! #Colts pic.twitter.com/Ojkg8RNi3U
— Rival Fantasy (@rivalfantasy) October 29, 2023
I look for Colts head coach Shane Steichen to atone for last week's puzzling blunder by consistently feeding Taylor in what amounts to a smash spot against the Carolina Panthers, a squad that's been brutalized on the ground in 2023. Despite already having their bye week, the Panthers have still allowed the NFL's most rushing TDs (12), while also relinquishing the league's second-most yards per carry (5.02) to the RB position.
MORE TOP RB PLAYS: Alvin Kamara ($8,100); Saquon Barkley ($7,900)
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DraftKings Wide Receivers - Week 9 DFS Picks
A.J. Brown - DAL @ PHI ($8,600)
Yes, I'm highlighting A.J. Brown for the second consecutive week, and while I normally like to mix things up, Brown is currently a "fade-him-at-your-own-risk" type of DFS play. He crossed the 125-yard receiving mark for the sixth consecutive game last week, reeling in eight of eight targets for 130 yards and two scores against Washington.
A.J. Brown has gained 432 yards against man coverage this season, 158 more than the next closest receiver.
Brown will face a Cowboys defense this Sunday that has played man coverage at the 2nd-highest rate in 2023 (47.1%).#DALvsPHI | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/hw7tXw5Qiv
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 2, 2023
This dude is simply playing at a different level than every other receiver in the league right now, which is why I'm not hesitating to spend up for him on this slate, even as he faces what's been a statistically strong Dallas defense. Simply put, Brown is matchup-proof at the moment. It's also notable that he destroys man coverage and combined for 11 catches, 170 yards, and a TD in two matchups against the man-heavy Cowboys scheme last season.
Terry McLaurin - WAS @ NE ($5,600)
After a sluggish start to the season, McLaurin's role has started to take flight in this Washington passing attack. Since failing to log over 60 receiving yards in any of the Commanders' first three games of 2023, he's now topped that mark in four of Washington's last five, while garnering an eye-opening 47 targets in that timespan for an offense that sports the league's highest pass-play rate (72%). McLaurin is a talented player who will eventually take advantage of the volume and post a monster stat line.
TERRY MCLAURIN OVER JAMES BRADBERRY
pic.twitter.com/RLpClGD9hD— PFF (@PFF) October 29, 2023
The New England secondary has historically been a matchup to avoid in DFS, but the loss of standout rookie corner Christian Gonzalez to a season-ending injury has noticeably weakened what was an already middling unit. The Pats have coughed up the NFL's fourth-most TDs (nine) and 10th-most DraftKings points to the WR position.
MORE TOP WR PLAYS: CeeDee Lamb ($8,200); Adam Thielen ($7,500); Demario Douglas ($4,000)
DraftKings Tight Ends - Week 9 DFS Picks
Mark Andrews - SEA @ BAL ($6,800)
The price is tough to swallow but with Travis Kelce and George Kittle off the Main Slate, and T.J. Hockenson with a huge question mark at quarterback, Andrews does stand out as a legitimate separator at the TE position this week. It makes me tempted to spend up in an attempt to grab the Baltimore star's raw point-scoring ability, as his DFS floor/ceiling combo is unmatched on this slate.
Mark Andrews currently leads all tight ends in touchdowns with six on the season. pic.twitter.com/lsI6IWIhzB
— Ravens Nation LIVE (@LIVERavenNation) October 31, 2023
Andrews trails only Kelce in average DK Points per game (15.4) at the TE position. His six TDs are the most in the NFL among tight ends. He'll square off against a Seahawks defense that's relinquished a chunky 7.60 yards per target to opposing tight ends this season and grades out 21st in the NFL in TE DVOA.
Kyle Pitts - MIN @ ATL ($4,100)
For the record, I'd like my good friend and RotoBaller colleague Thunder Dan Palyo to know that I didn't write Kyle Pitts up until Week 9 this year. After repeatedly trying and failing with Pitts throughout 2022, I'm proud to say I've gone cold turkey this season. Just when I think I'm out...they pull me back in.
I'm willing to risk the pain this week due to a couple of factors surrounding Pitts' circumstances for this matchup against Minnesota, as Taylor Heinicke is expected to get the start at QB for Atlanta in place of Desmond Ridder, while Falcons wide receiver Drake London hasn't been able to practice all week and can currently be considered questionable to go against the Vikings.
The #Falcons are expected to start QB Taylor Heinicke this weekend, per coach Arthur Smith. pic.twitter.com/46yeQdAftc
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 1, 2023
I have little doubt that Heinicke is an upgrade over Ridder, as he's shown a willingness to push the ball down the field during his time with Washington in the past. London's potential absence would be yet another significant boost for Pitts, whose 11.9 yards per reception trails only George Kittle and Mark Andrews among tight ends with at least 20 receptions. Yes, I'm ready to get hurt again.
MORE TOP TE PLAYS: Trey McBride ($3,700); Cade Otton ($3,000)
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