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Dave's Week 15 NFL player props picks and anytime touchdown wagers. Get his best Week 15 NFL player prop bets with odds, expert analysis and predictions. Top weekly NFL prop bets and winning picks.
Well, just four weeks remain in the 2025 NFL season. It's been quite the year, and this really feels like one of those times where we could get a surprise Super Bowl winner.
From a prop betting perspective, some things have been turned on their heads in recent weeks. The Indianapolis Colts' freefall presented some great selling opportunities on Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor. These are the kind of opportunities you should target this time of year. The prop lines this late in the season are some of the sharpest you'll see, so you need to be extra careful before wagering any of your hard-earned money. However, sometimes the books can be slow to adjust to new trends. That can create some great buying (or selling) opportunities in the prop market. We'll do our best to identify some of those in this space this week and will try to end the 2025 season on a high note.
Make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Let's get into some of my favorite player props for Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season.
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Week 15 Passing Prop Bets
Brock Purdy OVER 239.5 Passing Yards (-115) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .58 Units to Win .5 Units
Purdy has not played well over his last two games, but this weekend looks like a perfect get-right spot for San Francisco’s QB1. The Titans' defense just allowed rookie Shedeur Sanders to carve them up for 364 passing yards and has now allowed the eighth-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks this year. Tennessee also ranks 29th in FTN Fantasy’s defensive passing DVOA.
We could see the 49ers lean heavily on running back Christian McCaffrey and their ground attack to score a victory here. However, the Titans' defense is so bad that Purdy can still have a very efficient day through the air thanks to a heavy dosage of play-action passes. Having a fully healthy receiving corps that's capable of accumulating a ton of yards after the catch doesn't hurt either.
I’m expecting Purdy to deliver one of his best games of the season here, and think he should have no issues eclipsing this total.
Jacoby Brissett UNDER 234.5 Passing Yards (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .57 Units to Win .5 Units
Brissett is averaging almost 246 passing yards per game this year. So, why is this number so low? Because the Houston Texans' defense is the best in football and has made Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen look like JaMarcus Russell and Ryan Leaf.
CALEN BULLOCK ENDS IT! pic.twitter.com/hLCvyyWraH
— NFL (@NFL) November 21, 2025
Jalen Pitre tipped it to himself!
HOUvsKC on NBC
Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/j5wPYMdoPj— NFL (@NFL) December 8, 2025
Houston currently ranks first in defensive passing DVOA, ninth in PFF’s pass coverage grade, and has allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards to quarterbacks this year. The Texans are also tied for the sixth-most sacks, and that could be a problem for an Arizona offensive line that ranks 25th in PFF’s pass-blocking grade.
I expect Brissett to be under constant duress in this game, which means he'll have little time to push the football downfield. I think Arizona’s offense is at risk of being completely shut down here, and that would be bad news for Brissett’s passing numbers. He’s a full fade this week.
Week 15 Rushing Prop Bets
Travis Etienne Jr. OVER 71.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
Etienne is coming off a fine game in Week 14, where he ran for 74 rushing yards and scored twice on the ground.
Travis Etienne Jr.'s second TD of the first half!
INDvsJAX on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/XCqeXZj9HM
— NFL (@NFL) December 7, 2025
Jacksonville will take on a New York Jets defense that has struggled after trading away star defenders Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner. New York currently ranks 19th in PFF’s rushing defense grade and has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game in the NFL. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, the Jets have also allowed the eighth-most explosive rushing yards in the league.
With Jacksonville listed as double-digit favorites, this is shaping up as a great spot for Etienne. He is live to break off a few long runs and has a real shot to crack triple digits in rushing yards. Expect a big game from Jacksonville’s RB1 this weekend.
Woody Marks OVER 19.5 Rushing Attempts (-130) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk 1.3 Units to Win 1 Unit
Marks is coming off a career high 26 carries last week against the Kansas City Chiefs. It actually marks the fourth straight game that Marks has had at least 16 rushing attempts. He seems to have taken over as Houston’s clear RB1.
With the Texans listed as 9.5-point favorites, the team should be playing with a lead for the majority of this game. That should mean plenty of volume for Marks.
Even though Arizona was just gashed by the Los Angeles Rams for 249 rushing yards last week and currently ranks 27th in PFF’s rushing defense grade, I prefer taking a volume approach on Marks here. Yes, he has received a lot of work as a rusher, but it hasn't translated to much production. Marks has only eclipsed 70 rushing yards once over his last four games.
His current yardage line of 74.5 is priced a little too close to his ceiling, and even though this projects as a plus matchup, Marks could have trouble eclipsing this total. That means the safer play is to attack the over on his rushing attempts, as it's unlikely Houston will fall far enough behind in this game that they're forced to abandon the run.
Jonathan Taylor UNDER 20.5 Rushing Attempts (+100) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk 1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
It is amazing how Taylor’s season has flipped on a dime. Just a few weeks ago, there was talk that he could be an MVP candidate. Now his starting quarterback is out for the year, his production has declined, and Indianapolis’ season is spiraling out of control.
We'll see who starts at quarterback for Indianapolis this week. But Riley Leonard or 44-year-old, suddenly unretired Philip Rivers do not sound like appealing options for offensive success. Regardless of whose under center, Taylor and the Colts draw an incredibly difficult Week 15 matchup.
The Seattle Seahawks' defense has been one of the best in the league so far in 2025. Their run defense has also been very good. Seattle ranks first in defensive rushing DVOA and allows the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game.
Whichever quarterback starts for the Colts, you can expect Seattle's defense will show them little respect, stack the box, and force them to beat its defense with their arm. This game has serious potential to go sideways, and it's hard to envision Indianapolis staying competitive enough for Taylor to surpass this total.
It's a shame the Colts' season has gone off the rails because it looked like Taylor was heading for a special year. However, things can change fast in the NFL.
I will be fading Taylor again this weekend, as it looks like the Colts are a team stuck in an unsalvageable tailspin.
Week 15 Receiving Prop Bets
Hunter Henry UNDER 42.5 Receiving Yards (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk 1.14 Units to Win 1 Unit
Henry has enjoyed a fine season for the Patriots. He is currently eighth among all tight ends in receiving yards and tied for sixth in touchdowns. However, he draws an extremely difficult matchup this weekend.
The Bills' defense has had its share of issues, but it has been very effective at limiting opposing tight ends. Buffalo allows just 35.7 receiving yards per game to the position. We could see New England turn to its ground game here and try to exploit a Bills run defense that allows 135.2 rushing yards per game, which is the fifth-most in the league.
This is a tough matchup for Henry, and even though this is a low total, I do not expect him to have much success in this game. I’d play this number down to 35.5 for a full unit.
DJ Moore UNDER 17.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .58 Units to Win .5 Units
Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is not playing well right now. There are a plethora of advanced stats that will back up that statement. Don't believe me? Fine. Take a look for yourself.
Among 44 quarterbacks with 100+ dropbacks, Williams ranks:
- 23rd in PFF passing grade
- 40th in PFF's adjusted completion percentage
- 35th in Fantasy Points Data Suite's highly accurate throw percentage
- 39th in Fantasy Points Data Suite's catchable throw percentage
- 9th in Fantasy Points Date Suite's off-target throw percentage (a high ranking is bad)
Williams is not playing as well as some of his raw stats suggest. As a result, the Bears have transformed their offense into a run-heavy attack.
Moore has been one of the casualties of this decision. He has had a very disappointing season, as he hasn't had more than five receptions or 73 receiving yards in a single game this year. That's hard to believe for a player as talented as Moore, but it's the reality of this situation.
Now, Chicago faces a Browns defense that ranks fifth in defensive passing DVOA and has Myles Garrett playing like a madman to break the single-season sack record. Cleveland has also allowed the second-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers this year. So, on top of a quarterback not playing well, Moore is also facing a tough matchup.
This does not look like the week where Moore busts out of his funk. Expect Williams and the Bears' passing offense to continue their struggles this weekend, and that makes Moore a clear fade.
Week 15 Anytime Touchdown Bets
Isaiah Likely Anytime Touchdown (+240) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.4 Units
Death, taxes, and tight ends scoring touchdowns against the Bengals. Cincinnati’s defense has been awful at guarding tight ends, and the team has allowed 15 touchdowns to the position this year.
Likely would have scored against the Bengals two weeks ago, but he fumbled the ball right before the goal-line.
An almost touchdown resulted in a fumble for a touchback
CINvsBAL on NBC
Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/NdH9shkSY2— NFL (@NFL) November 28, 2025
He also had a touchdown catch called back last week on a questionable decision by the officials.
Likely has been flirting with the end zone quite a bit the last few weeks, but I expect him to atone for his Week 13 mistake here and find paydirt. These are great odds to take a shot at him doing so.
Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime Touchdown (+250) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .5 Unit to Win 1.25 Units
Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, since Stevenson returned from injury in Week 13, he has received more carries inside the five-yard line than backfield mate TreVeyon Henderson. That might be surprising to some people, but it means New England is not ready to fully turn over goal-line duties to its rookie running back.
The Buffalo Bills' run defense is one of the worst in the NFL. Buffalo allows over 135 rushing yards per game and has allowed a league-high 19 rushing touchdowns this year. I fully expect Patriots' head coach Mike Vrabel to be aware of this weakness in the Bills' defense, and I am expecting New England to rely heavily on its ground game this weekend.
Assuming New England keeps rotating Stevenson in at the goal line, he'll have a great chance to score in this game. That is a big if, but 2-1 odds make the risk worth the reward.
Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown (+175) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .57 Units to Win 1 Unit
If you're still struggling to wrap your head around Jefferson's 2025 season, don't worry. You're not alone. I am in the same boat, and his poor year demolished many of my fantasy football teams' playoff hopes. Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy's issues are largely to blame for Jefferson's struggles. Still, it's stunning to see one of the game's greats have this bad a season.
All that aside, this could be a good spot for Jefferson to score his third touchdown of the year and first since Week 9. The Dallas Cowboys' pass defense has been one of the worst in the NFL. Dallas ranks 31st in PFF's pass coverage grade.
Banking on McCarthy taking advantage of this matchup admittedly feels like a stupid bet, but McCarthy did throw three touchdown passes in a plus matchup last week against the Washington Commanders. That gives some hope that he could throw a few more touchdowns against a Cowboys team that's allowed the most receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this year. So if McCarthy does toss a couple of scores, it will likely be to his receivers.
I'm willing to take a chance on Jefferson scoring in this game. I might be flushing my money down the toilet, but it's not often you get odds this good on Jefferson to find the end zone.
Long Shot Props & Value Plays
Ricky Pearsall Most Receiving Yards in SF vs. TEN (+600) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .2 Units to Win 1.2 Units
Josh Allen Most Rushing Yards in NE vs. BUF (+800) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .15 Units to Win 1.2 Units
Travis Etienne Jr. Most Rushing Yards (Sunday Only) +1400 DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .1 Units to Win 1.4 Units
Christian McCaffrey Most Rushing Yards (Sunday Only) +2000 FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .1 Units to Win 2 Units
TreVeyon Henderson Most Rushing Yards (Sunday Only) +8000 BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .05 Units to Win 4 Units
Amon-Ra St. Brown Most Receiving Yards (Sunday Only) +2000 BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .1 Units to Win 2 Units
Weather & Surface Impact Analysis
Severe weather conditions can have a major impact on NFL games. It can influence play-calling and thus affect props totals.
Just make sure you keep an eye on the forecasts as we get closer to game time.
Week 15 Props Summary
Here's a quick, handy recap of all the props I recommended in this article in one place!
- Brock Purdy OVER 239.5 Passing Yards (-115) BetMGM Sportsbook
- Jacoby Brissett UNDER 234.5 Passing Yards (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
- Travis Etienne Jr. OVER 71.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Woody Marks OVER 19.5 Rushing Attempts (-130) FanDuel Sportsbook
- Jonathan Taylor UNDER 20.5 Rushing Attempts (+100) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Hunter Henry UNDER 42.5 Receiving Yards (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
- DJ Moore UNDER 17.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Isaiah Likely Anytime Touchdown (+240) BetMGM Sportsbook
- Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime Touchdown (+250) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown (+175) DraftKings Sportsbook
Thanks for reading, and make sure you check back again before Sunday for updated info and more betting content from RotoBaller!
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