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Hello everybody and welcome! The 2021 NFL season is finally underway and that means our new friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game. The second game is known as Single Stat. For NFL, Single Stat consists of quarterback passing yards, running back rushing yards, and wide receiver receiving yards in which you determine if the player in question will go over or under their projected total. You can mix and match players from each type of game in your entry or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option. Today, we will look at some single-stat scores for Week 1 of the NFL Season.
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Single Stat NFL Totals
Dalvin Cook over 94.5 rushing yards - Cook and the Vikings get a solid matchup Week 1 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Currently, the Vikings are 3.5 point favorites, which should mean extra carries for Cook down the stretch in order to melt away the clock. If this holds true, he could have a huge day. In 2020, the Bengals gave up the third-most rushing yards per game to running backs by allowing over 125 yards per game. Cook also eclipsed this total in nine of the 14 games he played in 2020.
Nick Chubb under 72.5 rushing yards - The under on Chubb has a lot to do with game script for me as the Chiefs are currently 6.5 point favorites, which means the Browns may be needing to throw the ball late and could utilize more of Kareem Hunt down the stretch in this one. In 2020, Chubb went over this total in just six of the 12 games he played, and while the Chiefs did allow running backs to rush for 97.6 yards per game in 2020, it will be much tougher for Chubb to get over the total while sharing work with Hunt.
Joe Mixon over 78.5 rushing yards - While the Bengals are underdogs in this game, I still like Joe Mixon to have a solid day against this Vikings Defense as they are likely to try and move the ball on the ground quite a bit in the early weeks of the season given the knee injury Joe Burrow is returning from. If they decide to keep the ball on the ground in this game, they could have a ton of success against a Vikings unit that allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game to backs in 2020 by allowing over 100 rushing yards per game. When Mixon was healthy in 2020, he was given no less than 16 carries in any one game, so we could expect that to be his floor in this game. Given the fact the Vikings allowed 4.9 yards per carry in 2020, it would not be unreasonable to see Mixon rush for somewhere around 80-plus yards in this one.
Russell Wilson over 264.5 passing yards - Wilson and the Seahawks are favored by just 2.5 points in this game and it has some potential to become a shootout given how horrible these pass defenses were in 2020. The Colts allowed quarterbacks to throw for an average of 255 yards per game, which ranked seventh-worst in the league. They also stopped the run very well as they gave up the eighth-fewest rushing yards to running backs. Wilson and the Seahawks were known for throwing the ball in 2020 as well with the likes of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett as he went over this total in five of his first six games to begin the season. Seattle's defense also allowed quarterbacks to throw for over 300 yards per game, so the Colts could certainly move the ball with ease in this one and force Seattle to air it out with Wilson.
Logan Thomas less than 40.5 receiving yards - This prop may fly under the radar, but Thomas will likely be the fourth option in this offense behind Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, and Curtis Samuel. This means he will likely see fewer than the 6.8 targets per game and 41.8 receiving yards per game he saw in 2020. The Chargers were also solid in 2020 against the tight end as they allowed 45 yards per game to the position. Keep in mind this was without All-pro safety, Derwin James. The Chargers Defense should be further improved in 2021, making this a tough spot for Thomas and the Washington Football Team.
Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX
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