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Joey analyzes pitcher fantasy baseball values, sleepers, breakouts who changed teams in 2026. Read his favorite undervalued SP fantasy baseball draft values.
There was a lot of starting pitcher movement this offseason. Freddy Peralta was traded to the New York Mets, Sonny Gray was dealt to the Boston Red Sox, and Framber Valdez signed a big deal with the Detroit Tigers. But none of these pitchers will enter fantasy baseball drafts as a value pick, as each of those pitchers is priced appropriately.
In this article, we will dive into the four pitchers who have changed teams this offseason that are currently undervalued in fantasy baseball drafts. These four pitchers are going too low in all fantasy formats. All ADP referenced is taken from NFBC drafts as of February 1.
So, which four pitchers who changed teams this offseason are value picks? Let's dive in and find out.
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Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays
ADP: 80
Starting pitcher Dylan Cease signed a massive seven-year, $210 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays this offseason. After spending the last two seasons with the San Diego Padres, Cease has now joined the Blue Jays on a big deal. The move to Toronto could actually help his fantasy numbers in 2026.
For starters, Cease will be pitching in front of a better defense than in years past. The Padres ranked 24th in total defensive runs saved (-8) in 2024 and ranked 14th in total defensive runs saved (28) last year. In those two seasons, the Blue Jays ranked first in total defensive runs saved (102) and fourth in total defensive runs saved (51). Having a better defense behind him will be such a game-changer for the right-hander.
Cease is also due for some positive regression. The 30-year-old didn't post the best numbers on the mound last year. He finished with a 4.55 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and 215 strikeouts across 168 innings pitched. That was a big difference from his 2024 numbers, when he posted a 3.47 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over 189 1/3 innings pitched.
However, his overall metrics from last year were much better than his actual numbers. His expected ERA (3.46) was 109 points lower than his actual ERA (4.55), and Cease still ranked in the upper half of the league in expected batting average against (.214), chase rate (31%), whiff rate (33.4%), strikeout rate (29.8%), and hard-hit rate (37.5%).
Dylan Cease K.
Right down Broadway
ABS saves the day. pic.twitter.com/ydIRWAu9NS— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 28, 2026
With Cease being one of the best strikeout pitchers in the league, he is certainly undervalued at his 80 ADP in NFBC leagues. He has struck out over 210 batters in five straight seasons and will have a better defense behind him in the field. The Blue Jays had six Gold Glove finalists a few years ago. That's an upgrade for the hard-throwing right-hander.
MacKenzie Gore, Texas Rangers
ADP: 179
The Washington Nationals made a big move this offseason to trade away MacKenzie Gore. The left-hander now gets to pitch in a much better situation with the Texas Rangers. Gore spent the last few years pitching his home games at Nationals Park, the 12th-most hitter-friendly ballpark over the past three years (per Statcast). The trade to the Rangers now means that the southpaw will pitch in the second pitcher-friendliest ballpark since 2023.
Not only does switching ballparks make a difference, but so does pitching in front of an entirely new defense. The Nationals ranked 26th in team defensive runs saved (-21) in 2024 and ranked 27th in team defensive runs saved (-44) in 2025. As for the Rangers, they ranked first in total team defensive runs saved (89) last season. The upgraded defense behind Gore could make a huge difference.
There's no doubt the 27-year-old has shown his potential at times on the mound. He had a 3.24 ERA and 98 strikeouts in his first 15 games of the 2024 season, and a 3.02 ERA and 138 strikeouts in his 19 starts last year. In both seasons, though, Gore really struggled to put it all together. The southpaw had a 6.75 ERA over the last two months of the 2025 campaign.
Despite that, the change of scenery could really help him. He continues to display his strikeout upside and has the skill set to put together an all-around strong season. Gore finished in the 70th percentile or better in chase rate (29.9%), whiff rate (29.7%), and strikeout rate (27.2%) last year. His changeup also had a 47.2% whiff rate against right-handed batters.
As a result, Gore is undervalued at his 179 ADP in NFBC leagues. He has shown glimpses of being an ace on the mound, and the upgraded defense/ballpark could allow him to post career-best numbers in 2026. There's just too much upside to pass up on him in the middle to late rounds of fantasy baseball drafts.
Edward Cabrera, Chicago Cubs
ADP: 192
There is a real chance that starting pitcher Edward Cabrera takes his game to the next level this year. The up-and-coming pitcher was traded from the Miami Marlins to the Chicago Cubs this offseason. A year after finishing with a 3.46 ERA and 150 strikeouts across 137 2/3 innings pitched, Cabrera could post even better numbers in 2026.
There are a lot of things that favor Cabrera in a Cubs uniform this year. The two biggest ones are the defense behind him and the ability to pitch at least half of his games at Wrigley Field.
Chicago has one of the best defenses in the majors, led by Ian Happ in left field, Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field, Alex Bregman at third base, Dansby Swanson at shortstop, and Nico Hoerner at second base. Last year, Cabrera pitched in front of a Marlins defense that ranked 17th in team defensive runs saved (16). The Cubs ranked second in that same category a season ago (84 total defensive runs saved).
Then, there's Wrigley Field. The Cubs' home ballpark has turned into one of the most pitcher-friendly stadiums in all of baseball. Wrigley Field has been the fourth-best park for pitchers since the start of the 2023 season, according to Statcast's Park Factor grade. During this three-year span, the loanDepot Park (home of the Marlins) was more of a hitter-friendly park than a pitcher-friendly park.
Edward Cabrera is nasty pic.twitter.com/rh2aZroiWh
— Aldo Soto (@AldoSoto21) March 4, 2026
With Cabrera going just inside the top 200 picks in NFBC formats, he is a smash selection at his 192 ADP. He is coming off his best season on the mound and ranked in the upper half of the league in chase rate (30.3%), whiff rate (29.4%), and strikeout rate (25.8%) in 2025. That makes the new Cubs pitcher a low-risk, high-reward draft pick.
Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles
ADP: 204
The Baltimore Orioles set their eyes on starting pitcher Shane Baz early in the offseason, letting go of four prospects and a draft pick to acquire the 26-year-old right-hander. Baz definitely had an interesting 2025 season, as he finished with a whopping 4.87 ERA, a 1.335 WHIP, and 176 strikeouts across 166 1/3 innings pitched.
However, fantasy managers shouldn't read too much into Baz's season because his home/road splits were very different. He had a 5.90 ERA across 16 home starts and a 3.86 ERA in 15 road starts. It's not surprising to see how poor his home numbers were last year, considering the right-hander had to pitch at George M. Steinbrenner Field, which was a hitter's paradise last summer. Both the left and right field fences were shorter than 320 feet from homeplate.
I promise this is not engagement farming.
Dylan Cease had the same Stuff+ (108) last season as Ryne Nelson and Sandy Alcantara.
Paul Skenes had the same Stuff+ (107) last season as Jack Leiter and Shane Baz. pic.twitter.com/cM8cyengyH
— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) February 16, 2026
So, Baz will be pitching in a much friendlier ballpark in 2026. His road ERA (3.86) paints a clearer picture of where his numbers might be this season. The 26-year-old's expected ERA (3.88) was also 99 points lower than his actual ERA (4.87) last year.
Baz should no doubt be in store for a much better season on the mound. He will not be making the majority of his starts at a Spring Training ballpark and has the strikeout upside to punch out over 175 batters this year. That's why the Orioles pitcher is such a value pick in fantasy drafts. Managers shouldn't be reading too much into his poor 2025 season.
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