RADIO
If you have ever bet on a game, you know how important it is to understand the odds. As we come into the playoffs, it is even more important to know how the odds are created, who does it, what goes into it and what factors could make those odds go right out the window. The NFL playoffs are fully underway and the wild card games began on January 7 and 8. Even with so many unknowns out there, there are already odds on the table for probable AFC and NFC champions on the board. Predictions for every game fill every sports and news page and often change daily.
While picking the winners in a football game is not necessarily an easy feat, understanding the odds is relatively simple. It’s not always about winning and losing, although you can make that money line bet if you choose; it is more often about the point spread. It is pretty rare to see an evenly matched football game, so if bets were solely made on who will win or lose, sports books would lose their shirts every time. To even out the score when bets are placed, bets are more often placed on a point spread.
A point spread is more like a penalty or a hurdle the winning team must overcome in order for the better to win. For example, Wild Card team Green Bay was favored to win against the York Giants by five points. This is usually expressed as Packers (-5). What this means to the bettor is that if they bet on Green Bay to win, the Packers have to win by more than 5 points for the better to win. If they only win by a field goal, the bettor still loses. This can get confusing for the novice as the negative number follows the favored team.
Another favorite bet where it doesn’t matter who wins is the over/under bet. This is when sports books declare a points total, and bettors can bet whether the combined total of the two teams will come in over or under the declared points total. There are many things to take into consideration for this bet as well. If you are looking at two very offensive teams, it could be a very high scoring game. Injuries make a difference as well. If teams have a significant number of injuries on the offense, the total score could be lower as they are more relying on their defense to keep the other team from scoring rather than just outscoring with offense.
Other side bets can include betting on the MVP or particular player statistics. These are usually called proposition or “Prop” bets and it makes little or no difference which team wins when considering this bet. Bettors can also play a parlay, and wager on several football teams winning or losing.
Bet-makers usually have teams of experts that take many things into consideration when creating the point spread and the odds. Will the game be played at home or away for the favored team and how has that factor influenced how the team has played in the past. While they have played fairly average football for almost 20 seasons, the Dallas Cowboys have the best fan base in the NFL. They lead the NFL in attendance and 4 out of 5 of the top NFL jerseys sold in 2016 were Cowboys players. Many sportscasters believe this positive fan base is what got the Cowboys to the playoffs this year, although most predictions don’t have them playing past the first round. While some believed the Packers would eliminate them in the first round, others saw the Cowboys in the Super Bowl this year.
Weather can be an important factor for teams playing in weather unusual for them, such as the Miami Dolphins playing in a snowstorm in Wisconsin. Injuries always affect the odds, especially if the player is the quarterback or one the team has relied on for high scoring during the season. Even an undefeated team can change directions if the star scorer is on the bench.
Odds on a particular game can change for many reasons as well. Sports books usually want an even amount of money placed on both teams so that the house stands less of a chance of losing. As a game draws nearer, odds may change constantly, however a bettor stands with what the odds were at the time the bet was accepted.
As the Super Bowl looms ever closer, it is still a toss-up for many whether the NFC champion will be Green Bay or Atlanta. Most are predicting New England as the AFC champ, with a few quiets votes for Pittsburgh as the alternative. This coming round will eliminate one of the AFC favorites and we imagine predictions will become more in line. Super Bowl LI is shaping up to be an exciting game.
