X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Finding Under and Overvalued OF Using Expected Draft Values

Connelly Doan uses RotoBaller's Expected Draft Values, which analyzes data from the last 10 fantasy baseball seasons, to pinpoint plus and minus values on draft day in 2019, to identify two undervalued and two overvalued MLB outfielders.

We've been rolling out our Expected Draft Values series, starting with Nick Mariano's look into some undervalued players and overvalued players. As draft season winds down today, we're going to give you some undervalued and overvalued players who qualify at outfield.

As a quick primer, Expected Draft Value is the value you would historically expect, on average, from a given draft slot. In other words, Expected Draft Value lets you put a stat line next to every pick in the draft... if the player you draft performs better than expected, you get positive value. If the player you draft performs worse than expected, that's negative value. As we all know, a fantasy draft is all about maximizing the potential positive value from every pick.

For example, we can say that "if you draft a power + average hitter 97th overall, your Expected Draft Value should be a line of 285-26-76-75-4. That's your 'break even point'. If you draft a player at 97 who performs better than that, you win, or at least put yourself one player closer to winning.  For a full explanation of our Expected Draft Value research, see Nick's article's from yesterday, linked above. With the introduction out of the way, let’s dive into some undervalued and overvalued outfielders!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Undervalued Outfielders to Target

Kevin Kiermaier - OF, TB

NFBC ADP: 363
Expected Return for a Power+Speed Hitter Drafted 363rd: .241-14-50-60-14
2019 The Bat + ATC Projection: .244-14-53-68-18

Kevin Kiermaier is currently being drafted 363rd overall, pretty much an afterthought even in slightly deeper leagues. His fantasy numbers have never fully come to fruition, mostly because he has often been hurt in his MLB career. However, his ATC/The Bat projections have him returning value of the 270-to-290 pick range, based on production. Nothing really stands out in terms of his advanced batting statistics, but he has been known to provide speed and pop in chunks in the past. He plays the game hard, which, if it doesn’t lead to him getting hurt, could benefit fantasy owners.

The case for Kiermaier really boils down to if he can stay healthy and put together a full season. If he can, then he has the potential to get fantasy owners 20 HR and 20 steals. Even if you were to “reach” on him and take him at pick 290 instead of 363, the risk is very low compared to the potential reward.

 

Kevin Pillar - OF, TOR

NFBC ADP: 360
Expected Return for a Power+Speed Hitter Drafted 360th: .241-14-50-60-14
2019 The Bat + ATC Projection: .261-16-61-67-14

Analysis: Our other undervalued outfielder presents a similar profile to Kiermaier but has a little more stability to offer. Kevin Pillar is currently being drafted just before Kiermaier at pick 360, but his ATC/The Bat projections value him between pick mid-180s to pick 200, which means he is being seriously undervalued.

Pillar offers the pop and speed of Kiermaier but with a solid batting average floor (career .261 average). He doesn’t walk much (career 4.2% walk rate) but also doesn’t strike out much (16.2% career strikeout rate), so realistically he can serve as a late round pick that can help fantasy owners in two categories without dragging them down in any of the other three categories. His profile isn’t exciting, but based on the expected value of his projection, Pillar could be a steal in 2019.

 

Overvalued Outfielders

Christian Yelich - OF, MIL

NFBC ADP: 7
Expected Return for a Power+Speed+Average Hitter Drafted 7th: .316-28-97-100-25
2019 The Bat + ATC Projection: .299-28-90-100-16

Christian Yelich is a guy who deservedly is going very early in drafts. The 27-year-old had an immense breakout season in 2018, taking home all kinds of accolades, including NL MVP, and narrowly missing out on a triple crown. There is no question here that he should be going early in drafts, but based on our research and his 2018 batted-ball profile, there is good reason to think that Yelich is being overvalued with the seventh overall pick.

Yelich’s ATC/The Bat projections fall significantly short of the expected return for the seventh-overall historical power+speed+average player pick. Based on his projections, Yelich’s output would place him in the production range of the 13 to 15 overall pick. This is not so much a case of Yelich being projected to put up lackluster numbers but more of an unlikelihood that he will replicate his stellar stat line in 2018. Negative regression is certainly expected after taking a look at his batted-ball profile.

A few things stand out in Yelich’s batted-ball profile for 2018. In terms of power, he has always hit the ball hard, and 2018 was no different (his 92.3 MPH average exit velocity was in the top 6% of players). However, he also posted an inflated 35% HR/FB rate, which was the highest among qualified hitters and was much higher than his 20.3% career mark. Yelich was able to hit the ball out of the park despite being a historical ground ball hitter. His 51.8% GB rate in 2018 was tied for 11th-highest among qualified hitters, and his 4.7-degree launch angle was one of the lowest in baseball. Again, Yelich is a great player and an immense fantasy asset, but he likely won’t be as great as he was in 2018. He's worth passing on in the first round for players who are more of a sure thing to return 1st round value. If you can get him at the beginning or middle of the second round instead of the middle of the first, you’ve gotten yourself a more fair value.

 

Byron Buxton - OF, MIN

NFBC ADP: 152
Expected Return for a Power+Speed Hitter Drafted 152nd: .255-17-59-74-19
2019 The Bat + ATC Projection: .241-15-50-63-21

This next guy is a former prospect who has yet to pan out, but it looks like fantasy managers still have hope in him given his current ADP. Byron Buxton is currently being drafted at pick 152. Yet as you can see, the expected return for a power+speed player at pick 152 is much greater than that of what Buxton is projected to produce in 2019, minus the steal totals. In fact, if you take the steals out of the equation for a moment, Buxton’s four remaining stat projections place him around the expected production of about pick 362. Of course, his steals potential is one of his most appealing fantasy aspects, but when you consider the total package, it seems that Buxton is being considerably overvalued.

Buxton’s overall profile is mainly a steals threat with a bit of pop. However, his steals upside is limited by the fact that he doesn’t get on base nearly enough. Buxton’s plate approach hinders his ability to get on base consistently: he doesn’t walk much (career walk rate 6.5%), he strikes out a ton (31.7% career K rate), and he doesn’t hit the ball all that hard (85.7 MPH average exit velocity). These factors lead to a below-average career batting average of .230 despite getting BABIP help (career .320) from his speed.

The one bit of hope about Buxton is that, while his 2018 was dreadful, it came with several asterisks. His shortened season was marred with injuries, including migraines, a fractured left big toe, and a sprained left wrist. Buxton now appears to be fully healthy, as he has been raking in spring training. That being said, one strong offseason does not offset a career of disappointment. There are plenty other sources of steals who also provide value in other areas, so don’t feel the need to reach on Buxton.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Kyren Williams

Rams Not Willing to Pay Kyren Williams Top-Market Money?
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Christian Kirk

the No. 2 WR in Houston?
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Jerome Ford

the Likely Starter for Cleveland to Begin 2025
Chig Okonkwo

"Poised" for Best Season of Career
Xavier Watts

Falcons High on Xavier Watts
Xavier Restrepo

Training With Star Wideouts
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Cal Raleigh

Continues Historic Homer Pace Tuesday
Jacob Wilson

Exits Early On Tuesday With Left Hand Contusion
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
Luis Garcia

Fans Four in Rehab Outing
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF