X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Trusting Rookie Wide Receivers in Redraft Leagues

Fantasy football strategy for re-draft leagues in 2018. Jason Katz examines whether you can trust rookie wide receivers (WR) in redraft leagues.

If I had to list one mistake most commonly made by fantasy owners on draft day, it would be recency bias.

We've seen it time and time again - owners overreacting to what happened the previous year even when it was so clearly an outlier. The QB boom of 2011. The rookie WR boom of 2014. The RB collapse of 2015. In the wake of one of the worst rookie wide receiver seasons that I can remember, it's a great time to take a step back and put things in perspective.

Despite the relative failures and letdowns of last year's rookie receivers, it shouldn't make you instantly shy away from the position in this year's less-than-heralded crop of WR prospects in re-draft leagues.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

How Rookie Receivers Have Fared

The 2014 WR draft class is arguably the greatest of all time from a fantasy perspective. It has a whopping 17 receivers that, at some point in their careers, have been fantasy relevant: Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin, Marqise Lee, Jordan Matthews, Paul Richardson, Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, Donte Moncrief, John Brown, Bruce Ellington, Martavis Bryant, T.J. Jones, Quincy Enunwa. Of those rookies, many of them weren't even drafted in fantasy leagues that season and the first one off the board was Cooks and not until the seventh round.

It's unsurprising that the fantasy community overreacted in 2015 with Amari Cooper being a fourth-round pick, Nelson Agholor a fifth-round pick, and Devin Funchess an eighth-round pick. The big name rookie WRs in 2014 all panned out, so the reaction was to assume the same would happen in 2015. It did not. In fact, outside of 2014, rookie WRs haven't been good. Usually, there's at least one first-round WR that has a strong, fantasy relevant rookie campaign. Since the famous 2014 draft, the only first-rounder to do anything of note was Amari Cooper in 2015.

Fantasy owners love rookies. There's this huge sense of accomplishment if you're the guy who gets out in front of a breakout and can say "I nailed it" on a player no one really had high expectations for. While it's awesome when it works out, you generally do not want to pass on a proven commodity for an unproven unknown.

In 2017, JuJu Smith-Schuster finished as the WR23. He went undrafted in fantasy leagues, dynasty not included. Cooper Kupp finished as the WR25. He was the 50th WR drafted. The next highest scoring rookie was Keelan Cole at WR48. What about the top WR prospects? Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and John Ross, the three first round WRs from the 2017 draft, all spent most of the year injured. Davis played enough down the stretch to get himself all the way to WR87. In 2017, fantasy owners mostly avoided rookie WRs and it was the correct decision, as just a single rookie WR that was consistently drafted in fantasy leagues was a weekly starter--Cooper Kupp.

As a quick aside - it is important to focus on the rookie WRs that were actually drafted as opposed to the ones, like JuJu, that were picked up during the season. There's no leap of faith needed to "trust" a WR off the waiver wire. You pickup a guy that gets hot or comes into opportunity and if it doesn't work out, you drop him at little to no cost to your team. But when you draft a player, you are making an investment in that player from the get go.

In 2016, there were four first round WRs taken in the NFL draft. Corey Coleman finished as the WR84. Will Fuller finished as the WR66. Sterling Shepard, who was the highest rookie WR drafted in fantasy leagues in the eighth round, finished as the WR36. Michael Thomas, a 10th-round fantasy pick, finished as the WR7. Tyreek Hill finished as the WR25, but he was undrafted in fantasy leagues and wasn't on the fantasy radar until about midseason. Josh Doctson and Laquon Treadwell literally finished with single-digit fantasy points on the season.

In 2015, for the first time since 2009, six WRs were drafted in the first round of the NFL draft. Amari Cooper finished as the WR21. Not a single other WR was fantasy relevant. Tyler Lockett, a third round pick, and Stefon Diggs, a fifth round pick, each had moments, but neither was ever a reliable weekly starter. The first round WRs were complete busts outside of Cooper. Diggs has become one of the league's better receivers, but for fantasy purposes, you didn't really care about him when he was a rookie.

Skipping 2014, since we've already gone through it and it's clearly the outlier season, we move to 2013, which is as far back as this exercise will go. There were three first round WRs drafted. Tavon Austin finished as the WR57, DeAndre Hopkins finished as the WR50, and Cordarrelle Patterson finished as the WR46. 2013 was an especially poor year for rookie WRs and fantasy owners knew it with Austin being the only rookie WR taken in the single digit rounds of fantasy drafts.

 

What Now?

For the most part, rookie WRs can be helpful in fantasy. However, as with many things in fantasy football drafting, opportunity cost is key. In the later rounds, it is certainly worth it to spend a pick on a low-floor, high-ceiling rookie. You definitely want to give yourself the chance to hit on the next Michael Thomas or even Cooper Kupp. Where you want to avoid rookies is the earlier rounds.

The 2015 ADPs of Amari Cooper, Nelson Agholor, and Devin Funchess should have screamed stay away. Cooper and Agholor were being drafted pretty close to their ceilings while Funchess just didn't have the upside. The reason the 2014 class was so special is not just because of how many of those WRs turned into fantastic players, but because they were all taken in the back half of fantasy drafts. Outside of Amari Cooper in 2015, you have to go all the way back to A.J. Green and Julio Jones in 2011 to find a year where the highest fantasy drafted rookie WRs were actually viable weekly starters.

So what does this mean for 2018? This year, we have a very weak WR class. There is no can't-miss prospect and every WR has flaws. This draft class consists of many bonafide NFL caliber wide receivers - just none of them are elite. We're looking at a medley of real-life WR2s and WR3s. Great for WR depth in the NFL; not so much for fantasy. That's not to say there won't be fantasy relevant rookie wideouts - there almost certainly will. There just may not be an obvious one after the NFL draft.

2018 fantasy drafts should provide an opportunity for fantasy owners to take a shot on rookie WRs that are drafted to advantageous situations because it is unlikely that any rookie WR will cost a single digit round pick. Perhaps Calvin Ridley or D.J. Moore could find their way into the eighth or ninth round, but even that might not be worth it depending on where they end up. It would not surprise me if the most fantasy relevant rookie receivers ended up being players undrafted in fantasy leagues.

 

More Sleepers & Draft Values




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Remains an Overrated Road Racer
Brad Keselowski

Likely to Brush Past Chicago Street Course to Focus on Daytona
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek One of the Best Underdog Options After Strong Runs at Mexico City and Last Year
Cole Custer

Strong Mexico City Run and Xfinity Series Chicago Win Make Him a Solid DFS Option
Erik Jones

Likely Not Good Enough on Road Courses for DFS Consideration Despite Poor Qualifying Result
Noah Gragson

May Be Better Than Other Cheap DFS Options
Riley Herbst

Despite Decent Mexico City Run, Don't Expect Riley Herbst to Contend at Chicago
Cody Ware

Is a Road Course Veteran, but It's Rarely Helped Him in NASCAR
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Is The Heavy Favorite to Win at Chicago Street Course
Christopher Bell

Should Be Strong Despite Practice Struggles at Chicago Street Course
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF