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In case you missed it last week we covered Daniel Okrent, IPRAT and our projections for which relievers will finish in the top ten in WHIP for this season. Today we will purchase a flux capacitor, install it into the RotoBaller DeLorean, and drive into the future to share with you who will finish in the top ten in the WHIP category. Unfortunately for everyone in the North Side, the Cubs do not win the 2015 World Series. Or do they?
Much like closers, the best numbers to analyze when properly projecting how starting pitchers will fare in the WHIP category are a high strikeout rate and a low walk rate. It is no coincidence that Clayton Kershaw posted a silly 31.9% K rate, 4.1% BB rate, and led all starters in WHIP last season. Of the 10 qualified starters that led the league in WHIP in 2014, only Adam Wainwright (14.4%) finished with a K-BB rate below 15.0% and he finished in the top 10 due to the defense that played behind him. Preventing contact and walks is a sure recipe for a low WHIP.
Without further ado, we unleash our list of the top ten starting pitchers for WHIP in no particular order.
Starters That Will Lead MLB in WHIP
1. Clayton Kershaw – LAD, SP
This guy has collected so much hardware that he is ready to open his own Home Depot. This guy is on his own planet. Would anyone really be surprised if a video surfaces tomorrow that shows Kershaw wrestling a mountain lion while driving a school bus full of children that is rigged to blow if the bus goes under 75 MPH all while on the I-405 during rush hour? The answer is no; no one would be surprised. And you should not be surprised when he finishes with a crazy low WHIP yet again.
2. Chris Sale – CWS, SP
Do not let his Bird-like frame fool you. This guy is imposing on the mound. Over the last three seasons, he has seen sharp declines in WHIP (1.14, 1.07 and 0.97) and improvement in his K rates (24.9%, 26.1% and 30.4%). It would be incredibly hard to improve on those splits. With anything close to those numbers, he is sitting pretty in the Cy Young race again.
3. Johnny Cueto – CIN, SP
Batters finished with a .192 AVG and .238 BABIP when facing Cueto in 2014. Let that sink in for a moment. Hopefully those 234 IP last season will not negatively affect his 6.8% BB rate, because a pitcher of his caliber should not be walking that many batters.
4. Madison Bumgarner – SF, SP
At 25 years young, Bumgarner has already logged 952.2 IP in his career. That does not include playoff time served. Provided that his arm does not fall of, Bumgarner is another top fantasy option for this season.
5. Felix Hernandez - SEA, SP
King Felix has certainly earned his nickname. His 0.92 WHIP last season earned him the top spot in the American League while his 22.2% K-BB rate landed him sixth in that category in all of baseball. Not only does he have a penchant for striking out victims, but he has recently figured out how to induce the groundball in an effort to further stymie his opponents.
6. Alex Wood – ATL, SP
Even though the Braves have seemingly thrown in the towel for 2015, Wood should be on every fantasy owner’s radar. With his devastating breaking ball, Wood is right on the cusp as being labeled an ace. The best part, he still has plenty of room to grow. Just be careful banking on him late in the season. It is very possible Atlanta places him on an innings limit to avoid risking injury.
7. Jake Odorizzi – TB, SP
If, and this is a big if, Odorizzi can sustain his strikeout numbers while bringing his BB rate down a few percentage points, this guy can certainly be a breakout star. Despite finishing last season with an 8.2% BB rate, he posted a nearly two percentage point in the second half (7.1%) compared to his first half (8.9%). Get on board the Odorizzi train now because he will be this year’s version of last year’s Corey Kluber. Sans the Cy Young award.
8. David Price – DET, SP
Any batter that got on base against Price last season earned it the hard way. His 3.8% BB rate in 2014 was actual worse than his 2013 campaign, proving that the Vanderbilt product has phenomenal command of the strike zone. His 26.9% K rate is icing on the cake.
9. Jordan Zimmermann – WAS, SP
Since the start of 2011, Zimmermann has not finished a season with a WHIP higher than 1.17 nor with more than 43 BB. Though Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer may get most of the hype, Zimmermann quietly delivers year in and year out by attacking hitters and limiting walks. When his K rate jumped by over four percentage points last season, he entered into the Cy Young conversation. The sky is the limit for the Nationals third starter.
10. Stephen Strasburg – WAS, SP
The anti-hype crowd won’t like seeing Strasburg on this list, but the facts speak for themselves. He tied Cueto for the most strikeouts in the NL last season, finished second only to Pitching God Kershaw in xFIP, and recorded a 1.12 WHIP. So why were some of his numbers inflated? The short answer is bad luck. His .315 BABIP was absurdly high for elite pitchers in the league. Owners should not bank on that happening again.
