X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Third Base ADPs - Overvalued and Undervalued

In my starting pitchers’ piece, I noted how I wanted top starting pitchers, but very few had an ADP at or lower than my rankings. Thus, in order to fill my goal of acquiring top starting pitchers, I had to search for relative value; those who had ADPs close to my rankings became relative values.

The opposite applies to the third base market: most of the players seem to be undervalued or properly valued. Thus, a slight value pick (someone who you draft a bit ahead of your ranking) would be a poor relative value in this market. You likely will be able to get a larger value, given how many good third basemen are undervalued. The trick is picking the best value.

This piece will attempt to help you find a third baseman that can give you the biggest bang for your buck. Here are my third base values for the 2017 baseball season. Note: ADP values are taken from NFBC draft data.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Overvalued Third Basemen

Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs

ADP: 122
MY RANK: 165

I addressed Baez in my other positional pieces, but I think it bears repeating: I thought I was high on Javy Baez until I saw his ADP. Then I was confused. Yes, he is a 24-year-old former top prospect who has multipositional eligibility. He has cut down his strikeouts and has speed and power. But, his strikeouts are still where he is unlikely to hit for a high average. Barring an injury, he does not appear to have a full-time role, although he will get plenty of playing time. In his breakout last year, he hit .273/14/50/59/12. While there is certainly room for upside, he is going wayyyyy too high given the value plays available.

 

Fair Value Third Basemen

These players are slightly overvalued relative to other third basemen, but still fair at their current ADP.

Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners

ADP: 67
MY RANK: 77

Kyle Seager has been pretty consistent. From 2012-2015 he hit between .259 and .268 every year with between 20 and 26 homers. His steals started to decline (13, 9, 7, 6), and his run and RBI totals moved a bit, but he was a similar player. Last year, at age 29, he had career highs in homers, average, runs and RBIs, even though the steals declined to three. What should we make of this? His fly ball rate was actually slightly below his career average, and while his hard-hit rate was a career high, it was not much different than 2014. The uptick in HR/FB% can explain the extra homers, while the extra homers can explain most of the slight bump in average (four extra hits in 600 at bats would be a seven point bump, and he was only 12 points above his career average). With the steals down to three, and no reason to think the homers will meaningfully improve, is a 29 year old with career highs in the other categories of .278/30/89/99 that exciting? Seager could very well keep up that performance, but if he regresses to his .268/25/80/90 ways, you will not have chosen the best value in this market.

Todd Frazier, Chicago White Sox

ADP: 77
MY RANK: 91

Frazier hit 40 homers and stole 15 bases last year, and only had a .236 BABIP. That seems like a great guy to target, right? I don’t think so. From 2014 to 2016, Frazier’s WRC+ has declined each year. His line drive percentage has been on a steady decline. Last year, he had the highest strikeout percentage of his career. And despite having a hard-hit percentage well below his career average in 2016, he had his highest HR/FB ratio of any season he played. He also became much more of a pull hitter, further explaining the average drop (and possibly the homer increase). Now Frazier has battled injuries this spring, including the dreaded oblique injury. At 31 years old, will he continue to steal double-digit bases? With Adam Eaton gone and Melky Cabrera and Jose Abreu possibly next, will there be runs to drive in? Frazier’s declining indicators together with all these question marks make his upside too limited for a player who’s batting average already limits him. Get your value elsewhere.

 

Undervalued Third Basemen

Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians

ADP: 97
MY RANK: 45

I debated Ramirez’s rank with Brad Johnson here. In sum, Ramirez hit .312/11/82/76/22 last year in 152 games. He is only 24, is in an improved lineup, could see some of his 49 doubles plus triples turn into homers, and qualifies at many positions. With only nine players going 20/20 last year (and only two middle infielders – or three if you count Ian Desmond), he is too valuable to let slide. The injury to Kipnis could hurt the offense and thus his value slightly, but I still like the value. If you draft him early and another third baseman slides late, you can move Ramirez to another position.

Anthony Rendon, Washington Nationals

ADP: 91
MY RANK: 47

Rendon will turn 27 midseason. In his last two healthy years (2014 and 2016), he posted lines of .287/21/111/83/17 and .270/20/91/85/12. With only 487 career games, there is still room for improvement for this four to five category performer. Hitting in a deeper lineup, and surrounded by on base machines, there is no reason to think he won’t have excellent run production. The double-digit steals is something that is rare at the position. A player who has the reasonable ability to go .280/20/95/95/15, while still being young enough to improve, should not slip as far as he is.

Jake Lamb, Arizona Diamondbacks

ADP: 145
MY RANK: 59

Jake Lamb had some severe splits. In the first half, he went .291/20/49/61/3. In the second half it was .197/9/32/30/3. What should we make of this? Lamb had an injured hand right around the all-star break. He also was coming off a season where he only played 110 games. Thus, we have two explanations for why his performance could have dropped off a cliff, and neither would affect his 2017. Moreover, Lamb still posted a .249/29/81/91/6 line for the year despite the abysmal second half. He may be my favorite value play amongst this group.

Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 128
MY RANK: 76

While 2016 may look like a fluky home run year for Turner, his HR/FB ratio was not much different than 2015 (13.9% versus 14.8%). He did, however, increase his fly ball percentage (36.2 to 40.0) and his hard hit percentage (32.3 to 37.6). Moreover, Turner started slowly after offseason knee surgery, with .654 and .699 OPSs the first two months, before finishing with OPSs of .922, .979, .854 and .830. In a full season, there is reason to believe he can be every bit as valuable as players like Kyle Seager, who are going much higher. Seager posted a line of .278/30/89/99/3 last year, but Turner was on a 162-game pace of .275/29/85/97/4.

Jose Reyes, New York Mets

ADP: 295
MY RANK: 139

I have Reyes at 139th in my rankings, but he is going undrafted in most leagues. For my full take on Reyes, see my recent article here.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

A.J. Dillon

Not a Lock for a Roster Spot?
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Boston Celtics

Damian Lillard Drawing Interest from the Celtics
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals Select Liam Doyle with Fifth Overall Pick
Daniel Gafford

Agrees to Contract Extension with Dallas
Colorado Rockies

Rockies Select Ethan Holliday Fourth Overall
Seattle Mariners

Kade Anderson Selected Third Overall by Seattle
Ha-Seong Kim

X-rays on Ha-Seong Kim's Foot Come Back Negative
Los Angeles Angels

Tyler Bremner Selected Second Overall by Angels in 2025 MLB Draft
Washington Nationals

Nationals Select Eli Willits First Overall
Jake Meyers

to Miss More Than Three Weeks With Calf Injury
Cooper Flagg

Shut Down for Rest of Summer League
LeBron James

Hasn't Requested a Trade
Quinshon Judkins

Following Quinshon Judkins Arrest, NFL Declines Comment
Travis Hunter

Earning Praise in Jaguars Camp for Work Ethic
Memphis Grizzlies

Cole Anthony, Grizzlies Agree to Contract Buyout
Edward Cabrera

Hopeful to Avoid Injured List
Oneil Cruz

Absent on Sunday
Lars Nootbaar

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Jake Burger

Scratched on Sunday
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Back in Action on Sunday
Sean Manaea

Reinstated From Injured List
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Julius Chestnut

Kalel Mullings Competing for RB3 Role
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
Carlos Correa

Returns to Twins Lineup
Connor Norby

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Kimani Vidal

Fighting for No. 3 Job
Cam Hart

Recovering From Shoulder Surgery
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
Quentin Johnston

Might Not Get Many Chances to Prove Himself
Tre Harris

Officially a Holdout
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

. Should Move Up on Sunday
Ross Chastain

is a Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Josh Berry

Should Be Avoided in Fantasy at Sonoma
Chris Buescher

is A Great DFS Option to Consider for Sonoma Lineups
Riley Herbst

a Deep Sleeper at Sonoma
Joey Logano

May be A Sneaky DFS Option Who Can Pay Off for Sonoma Lineups
Austin Cindric

Could Austin Cindric Work for DFS Lineups at Sonoma?
Carson Hocevar

Is Carson Hocevar Worth Rostering For Sonoma DFS Lineups?
John Hunter Nemechek

Is John Hunter Nemechek A Sneaky DFS Play for Sonoma?
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Probably More Valuable for DFS If He Doesn't Flip the Stage
Travis Etienne Jr.

Needs to Bounce Back in 2025
Wan'Dale Robinson

Wants More Downfield Opportunities this Season
Quinshon Judkins

Arrested on Saturday for Battery and Domestic Violence
Terry McLaurin

Could be a Holdout at Training Camp
Roger McCreary

a Candidate for a Contract Extension?
Mike Evans

Buccaneers Could Have Difficult Time Retaining Mike Evans
Charles Cross

Could Sign Extension Before Training Camp
Xavier Restrepo

One to Watch Going into Training Camp
Calvin Ridley

Appears Re-Energized
Mark Andrews

Still a Key Piece in Ravens Offense
Ndamukong Suh

Officially Announces his Retirement
Jaylen Waddle

Motivated After Disappointing Season
Tre Harris

Still Unsigned
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF