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Justin Dunbar looks at NFL free agents who will decrease in fantasy football value heading into the 2022 season.
In all sports, free agency can be a bittersweet time for both the players and the team. On the player side, the opportunity to be properly compensated on the open market, but also means leaving the organization they likely came up through, which also results in having to adjust to a new situation.
Meanwhile, on the team side, free agency represents a time where you can upgrade your roster, but oftentimes, it means getting into a bidding war, which can lead to an inefficient allocation of resources.
Sometimes, both sides come out looking strong, but sometimes, it's easy to tell a match isn't meant to be. As we have seen recently with some notable lucrative contracts, the grass isn't always greener on the other side.
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Recent Free Agents That Have Flopped So Far
- 2021: WR Kenny Golladay To Giants (Four Years, $72 Million)
- 2021: TE Jonnu Smith To Patriots (Four Years, $50 Million)
- 2021: WR Nelson Agholor To Patriots (Two Years, $22 Million)
- 2020: QB Teddy Bridgewater To Panthers (Three Years, $63 Million)
- 2020: TE Austin Hooper To Browns (Four Years, $42 Million)
- 2020: WR Randall Cobb To Texans (Three Years, $27 Million)
- 2019: RB Le'Veon Bell To Jets (Four Years, $52.5 Million)
- 2019: QB Nick Foles To Jaguars (Four Years, $88 Million)
- 2019: WR Adam Humphries To Titans (Four Years, $36 Million)
Need we go on? Sadly, it is far too common to see free agents struggle to live up to the value of the contracts they sign, or simply recapture the performance they demonstrated previously in order to earn said contract. Why is this the case? Part of it has to do with the natural aging curves of players since most free agents are already getting closer to the end of their prime as is. Plus, football is a team game, and it can be very difficult to adjust to a new scheme and new organization. Whatever the reason though, the connection clearly exists and should not be overlooked.
Today, we will be focusing on four players who may not be in the ideal situation to perform at a high level. All of these players have produced in the past, but based on their free-agent landing spot, it is unlikely they reach that same level of production. With many of the top offensive free agents staying put, we're digging a bit deeper into the war chest than you'd expect, but perhaps that's ideal; non-star players are the ones generally impacted by landing spot, and the ones you shouldn't look to draft based on a previous peak season or two. Who qualifies as such? It is time for the great reveal!
Jarvis Landry, New Orleans Saints
How valuable is a receiver that specializes out of the slot? Jarvis Landry is more than putting that to the test. Since being drafted with the 63rd pick of the 2014 draft, all Landry has done is produce at a very high level. In fact, outside of one game missed after landing on the COVID-19 list in 2020, Landry played in every game possible between 2014 and 2020, matching that durability with the quality play on the field.
During that span, Landry averaged 8.63 targets/game and 63.5 receiving yards/game, establishing himself as a true target-earner. Sure, he wasn't a big-play weapon, but as a consistent separator in the underneath passing game, he was about as reliable of an outlet as it gets. Plus, during that span, we already saw Landry was forced to change teams when he was traded from the Dolphins to the Browns, and this did not lead to a downtick in production.
So, with Landry heading back to Bayou to join the Saints, all is well, right? Not from a fantasy perspective. See, regardless of the landing spot, concerns about Landry already were evident. In 2021, he had his worst season from a PFF receiving grade (68) standpoint, nor did he have much to deal with from a target competition standpoint. While his struggles to perform after the catch (4.3 yards after catch/reception) after returning from an MCL injury make sense, it's common for wide receivers to see their production decline at the age of 29, which is where Landry finds himself now. Add it all together, and it's not likely we were going to see Landry put a monstrous season wherever he went.
However, the Saints are a particularly poor landing spot for Landry. Target competition? How about Michael Thomas, who posted a 33.2% target share as recently as 2019, as well as Chris Olave, this year's 11th overall pick. For a pass-heavy offense like the Bills or Bucs, being the potential third option in the passing game still has value. However, only two teams passed the ball at a lower rate than the Saints (51.67%) last year, while they also ranked in the bottom-10 in plays/game (61.8). That's not the type of offense that is going to lead to a lot of fantasy production unless one singular player can take over the passing game, and without multiple injuries, it's hard to see Landry doing that. Currently being drafted behind Jakobi Meyers, Jamison Crowder, DeVante Parker, and others in better situations, it's advisable to not let the track record cloud a very difficult pathway to fantasy success for the Pro-Bowl receiver.
Cedrick Wilson Jr., Miami Dolphins
Coming into the season, the Cowboys, with CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup, appeared to have a wide receiver trio that could rival any other team. Thus, little attention was paid to whether or not they had the depth to compensate for an injury, but with Gallup going down in Week 1, they quickly had to find the answer to that.
However, why would that be Cedrick Wilson Jr.? After all, the hit rate for late-round picks, particularly one selected with the 208th overall pick, is not strong. Then, add in the fact that Wilson Jr. ran only 190 routes in his first three seasons in the league, and there wasn't much indication he was on the verge of breaking out. Heck, with just 1.37 yards/route run from Week 1 to Week 10, that continued to be the case. However, little did the Cowboys know how much they'd need him.
With Amari Cooper missing Weeks 11 and 12 while on the COVID-19 list and CeeDee Lamb missing most of the week those two games due to injury, Wilson was suddenly thrust into the spotlight. How'd he respond? Oh, simply by just being the team's most efficient receiver (2.30 yards/route run) for the rest of the season. As a pure slot receiver with strong after-the-catch abilities, he find a clear connection with Dak Prescott, which was critical in a contract year.
Heading into free agency, the expectation was that Wilson would return to Dallas, once again being the team's starting slot receiver. Instead, he departed for Miami, signing a three-year, $22 million contract with the Dolphins. Already, we were looking at a quarterback downgrade and a downgrade in terms of offensive environment, but at least he'd have a shot at being the #2 option in the passing game, right? Wrong. Soon after, Miami made the move to acquire star wide receiver Tyreek Hill from the Chiefs, creating a dynamic wide receiver duo between him and Jaylen Waddle.
So in essence, Wilson now not only finds himself behind multiple target hogs and a talented tight end in Mike Gesicki but also in a head coach in Mike McDaniel who, in San Francisco, worked for an offense that used as many two-receiver sets as any team in the league. In reality, as we saw with the 49ers, the third receiver is a part-time player, and that's where Wilson finds himself now. Even in the event one of the top-two receivers deals with an injury, the likely run-heavy nature of the offense and the potential concerns of the quality of it make it a worse situation than Dallas. This is a great contract for Wilson, considering 2021 was the first time he got any sort of opportunity to play. That being said, he isn't someone to be pounding the table for at any part of a fantasy draft.
Sony Michel, Miami Dolphins
Expectations for any first-round pick are high, but that is especially true for running backs taken in the first round. After all, in today's NFL, not many players at the position earn that designation, meaning those that do really need to separate themselves from the rest of the pack.
To his credit, that is what Sony Michel did in his rookie season with the Patriots. After being selected with the 31st overall pick in 2018, the Georgia product carried the load with 280 carries (including the postseason), while also shining during the Patriots' Super Bowl run. At that point, he had established himself as a fan favorite in New England and seemed to be the team's workhorse running back moving forward.
Although that held true in 2019, Michel regressed to just 3.7 yards/carry, while his peripheral numbers weren't much better. He simply wasn't showing the explosive-rushing ability you want in your top running back, and by the end of 2020, he clearly had fallen out of favor in New England. Fortunately for him, a new opportunity arose in Los Angeles, as he was traded to the Rams before the start of the season.
For most of the season, Michel found himself as Darrell Henderson's handcuff, but after Henderson sustained an injury prior to Week 13, Michel took over, averaging 23.17 carries per game, finishing as a top-15 PPR running back in four of those games. Although he wasn't particularly efficient (4 yards/carry) with said workload, he did at least demonstrate the ability to endure it, which could point to him receiving a relatively strong role with a new team in free agency.
However, there didn't appear to be much immediate interest in Michel, leaving him unsigned while teams solidified their running back situation. All seemed to be solved when he met with the New Orleans Saints, who could have given him a three-down role in the games that Alvin Kamara ends up suspended, but no, Michel just had to go to the Dolphins, muddying the team's backfield. At the end of the day, though, with just $500,000 guaranteed money on his new contract, he's the third-highest paid running back on the roster; he could find himself struggling for touches with Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert on the roster. Plus, there is essentially no pathway, outside of multiple injuries, for a three-down role to come, and even then, is the Dolphins' offense going to feature a high-end running back? I think not. With all due respect to Sony, X-Box may be the move here.
Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah, New York Jets
Performing at a high level as a tight end is difficult as is. After all, the physical toll from essentially having to be a wide receiver and offensive lineman is brutal, making the talent pool at the position slim; the high-caliber athletes are generally playing wide receiver.
For fantasy football, this is problematic. Outside of the "elite" players at the position, it can very difficult to find consistent production at tight end, meaning that fantasy managers often have to use that spot as a churning cycle between different options, depending on the matchup. For this to work, we still need offenses to feature one sole tight end, and we took a step back from that happening in free agency.
Coming into this offseason, it was well known that the Jets were in the market for a tight end. What we did not expect, was for them to address it to the extent they did. It's one thing that they signed BOTH Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah to three-year contracts, but they did expand upon it by selecting Ohio State tight end Jeremy Ruckert in the third round. Now, we have a potential full-blown three-way tight end committee, which is quite a headache.
From a contract size perspective, Uzomah ($24 million) has a slight edge over Conklin ($20.25 million), though early indications are that Conklin will be the team's "TE1." In the end, it's likely to be an even split, which behind three wide receivers for an offense not projected to be strong, isn't ideal. Had either of these tight ends landed in the right spot, perhaps we're looking at them differently, but as things stand, they effectively cancel each other out from a fantasy perspective. Let's keep that tight end search going elsewhere.
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