RADIO
Robert's fantasy football players to drop when making waiver wire moves for Week 11 (11/14/2023). He helps fantasy football managers decide on who to cut from rosters.
With 10 weeks of the regular season come and gone, the playoff race is in full swing. Records and standings will likely dictate moves for certain clubs down the stretch. Those teams with winning records are more likely to hang onto handcuffs and high upside swings. If you're a 5-5 club with a lot of injuries or bye weeks, fighting and scraping for every win, you may not be able to hold onto someone like Zack Moss or Elijah Mitchell because they offer so little value right now. Those are difficult decisions each fantasy manager needs to make.
Any player listed on the Cut List isn't a player that absolutely needs to be cut. They're just cuttable players, that's all. Each situation is different. Each league is different. If your league hordes quarterbacks, you may not have the luxury of dropping a struggling passer. It's important to understand and know your own leagues and know how your opponents value players. With that said, hopefully this article will give you some advice on which players you can safely send to the waiver wire.
Deciding who to cut can always be a difficult process, but it's important to take emotions out of the equation. Below you'll find the biggest names that managers can safely cut in traditional 10 and 12-team leagues. You will also find players that you should hold if possible. If you have any questions, give me a follow @RobFFSlayer and shoot me a message. My DMs are always open and I’m more than willing to answer questions.
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Quarterbacks to Cut in Week 11?
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars – 95% Rostered
Lawrence closed his 2022 season on an absolute tear. Last season was the first year Lawrence played under head coach Doug Pederson and threw to Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram. With another offseason and the addition of Calvin Ridley, Lawrence made all the sense in the world as a breakout candidate and potential top-five quarterback. Through 10 weeks of the 2023 NFL season, that has turned out to be an incredibly inaccurate gamble.
Lawrence has yet to score 19 points in any game this season. He has five games with less than 15 points, which includes two games under 10 points. He has as many multi-turnover games as he does multi-touchdown games (two). He's been held under 220 yards passing in five games. Lawrence actually has more turnovers than he does touchdowns. Those are just awful, awful numbers.
To make matters worse, his playoff schedule is pretty brutal. The Jaguars have the Ravens, Buccaneers, and Panthers in Weeks 15-17, respectively. Baltimore is allowing the fewest points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Tampa Bay is allowing the fourth-most, which gives Lawrence one positive matchup, but Carolina is allowing the sixth-fewest points to quarterbacks. If you've been hanging onto Lawrence, you can cut him.
Running Backs to Cut in Week 11?
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans - 77% Rostered
Pierce has now missed back-to-back weeks and has been a DNP Wednesday-Friday the last two weeks. Over the last two games, Devin Singletary has operated as the team's primary ball carrier. He was very inefficient in Week 9 in a tough matchup against Tampa Bay, but he exploded this past weekend for 150 rushing yards and a touchdown on 30 carries. Pierce is currently out with an ankle injury and with him having missed two weeks, it would make sense that he may be dealing with a high-ankle sprain of sorts.
Once he does return, fantasy managers can be assured that he'll be in a committee with Singletary, especially after his Week 10 performance. Based on Pierce's struggles this season, it's possible, maybe even likely that Pierce will return as the 1B to Singletary's 1A. In either role, Pierce is not very attractive. To make matters worse is a dreadful playoff schedule. The Texans will face off against the Titans twice in Weeks 15 and 17 with the Browns sandwiched in between. The Browns have allowed the ninth-fewest points to opposing running backs and the Titans have allowed the 15th-fewest points.
Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts – 69% Rostered
Moss doesn't need to be cut because he's still one of the best handcuffs in the game, but make no mistake, that's all he is now. After Jonathan Taylor initially returned, Moss still maintained RB2/RB status, but with each passing week, his value started slipping away. This past weekend, it disappeared entirely. If you're dealing with a lot of bye weeks or injuries, it's understandable to cut Moss at this time.
Moss is no longer even just a change of pace back. He's a pure backup. Taylor has regained his role as a complete workhorse. He handled virtually every single running back touch. Moss has now sunk to handcuff status similar to that of Elijah Mitchell and Tank Bigsby.
Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers - 65% Rostered
Sanders played just 12% of the snaps in Week 8. He had zero fantasy points. In Week 9, he played 25% of the snaps and had just six carries, but rushed for 39 yards. He salvaged his day to some extent with three receptions for 22 yards. Still, the snap share was an awfully big red flag.
This past weekend, his snap share increased to 38%, but he finished with just a 15.4% running back rush share and a 5.4% target share. He finished with two carries for negative five yards and two receptions for 15 yards. He's barely playing. He's getting very few touches per game. His efficiency on those touches is poor. On top of all of that, his team's offense is arguably the worst in the NFL.
Other Running Backs to Cut: Ezekiel Elliott, New England Patriots - 41% Rostered, Justice Hill, Baltimore Ravens - 33% Rostered, Dalvin Cook, New York Jets - 25% Rostered, Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City Chiefs - 27% Rostered
Wide Receivers to Cut in Week 11?
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints – 79% Rostered
Thomas has been fine this season. The volume has been there. From Weeks 1-8, Thomas had at least six targets in every single contest. He also had at least four receptions in seven of them. He scored between 7.3-11.7 half-PPR points in every single game during those first eight games of the season. That's solid WR3 territory.
He hasn't hurt you, but he hasn't done much to help either. He's just kind of there. With that said, Thomas is not a must-cut player. Some of those lower-scoring output weeks have been due to poor touchdown luck. However, if you're in a pinch due to Thomas' injury, I can understand cutting him.
We don't have much information on Thomas' knee injury other than the team reporting it to be "fairly significant." What does that mean exactly? At this time, we don't know. At the very least, it seems as though he'll miss multiple weeks and a trip to IR isn't out of the question.
While he may not be out for the season, if he does go to IR with a knee sprain, he won't be able to return until Week 15, which is the start of the fantasy football playoffs. How confident will fantasy managers be using Thomas after a 3-4 week absence? It's a tough spot to be in. While I'd prefer to hang onto Thomas if possible, his injury makes him a cuttable player if you're in a pinch.
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers - 70% Rostered
Over his last four games, Watson has failed to score more than five half-PPR points in any contest. During this stretch, he’s averaging just 5.5 targets per game. That’s a 17-game pace of just 94. That kind of volume with subpar quarterback play isn’t worth rostering. In six games this season, Watson has gone over 40 yards in just one of them. He has yet to record a single game in 2023 with more than three receptions.
Dating back to last season, Watson has played in 14 games where he’s logged at least a 45% snap share or more. He’s had 50 or more yards in just four of them, with just one this season. He has recorded four or more receptions in only six out of 13, with zero coming this year. With the Packers committing to their running game as much as the scoreboard allows them to, Watson will be an extremely hit-or-miss player.
Watson is sixth on his own team in receptions and fifth in receiving yards. Over the last two weeks, Dontayvion Wicks, a sixth-round rookie, has more receptions and more yards than Watson on half the snaps. Right now, Watson is essentially Green Bay's No. 3 receiver.
Other Wide Receivers to Cut: K.J. Osborn, Minnesota Vikings – 37% Rostered
Tight Ends to Cut in Week 11?
Darren Waller, New York Giants - 67% Rostered
I typically try to refrain from listing injured players here. No one needs to be told that Nick Chubb or Mike Williams can be dropped. Waller’s situation is a bit different since it’s possible he will return after a four-game IR stint. I’m not optimistic he will return in four games. Not with the way the Giants’ game is going. Even if he does return, does it matter?
The Giants just lost Daniel Jones to a torn ACL. Head coach Brian Daboll said he didn’t know if Tyrod Taylor would return this year due to his rib injury. The Giants might be starting Tommy Devito, an undrafted rookie, for the rest of the year. He played four years at Syracuse with his sophomore season being the lone year he started more than five games. His 2022 season was spent at Illinois where he threw for 2,650 yards and 15 touchdowns in 13 starts. This offense is going to be a dumpster fire. To be fair, it was already with Jones and/or Taylor. You might be thinking, can it truly get any worse? It can always get worse and it’s going to.
This past weekend, DeVito completed 14 of 27 passes for 86 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. That's a 3.18 yards per attempt average. This offense is going to be atrocious for the rest of the season. Even if Waller comes back, he won't be anything more than a touchdown shot in the dark play.
Other Tight Ends to Cut: Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams - 38% Rostered, Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers – 29% Rostered
On The Hot Seat
WR Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders – 86% Rostered
It's crazy that we could be talking about cutting Meyers after the start he had. However, since rookie Aidan O'Connell took over in Week 8, his volume and production have fallen off a cliff. He's scored 2.4, 12.5, and 3.1 half-PPR points from Weeks 8-10. Even his 12.5-point performance is a mirage. He finished with just five targets, two receptions, and 38 yards. However, he had a 17-yard touchdown run that salvaged his score. From Weeks 1-7, he had four games with 10 or more targets. He has eight total targets from Weeks 8-10. Meanwhile, Davante Adams has 27 (!!!) targets over the past three weeks.
The Raiders have averaged just 137 yards passing per game over the last three weeks. O'Connell has thrown just one touchdown over that time. The Raiders' passing game is virtually nonexistent. What little production they have gotten over the past three weeks has been to Adams. They've been hell-bent on targeting Adams at an extremely high clip. That is leaving almost nothing left for Meyers. Due to his hot start, it's incredibly difficult to cut Meyers, but we're getting there.
Hold On
WR Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars – 97% Rostered
Ridley hasn't been anything close to what fantasy managers were expecting this season. He's essentially been a boom-or-bust WR4. He has four games with more than 10 half-PPR points, but another five with less than six points. He's basically Gabriel Davis of the Buffalo Bills. Quite honestly, that may be the best comparison. Unfortunately, Ridley's expectations were even higher than Davis's a year ago. Fantasy managers still shouldn't cut Ridley.
He has seven or more targets in six games this season. He has five games with eight or more targets. He's currently on pace for 115 targets. That's a good volume. Fantasy managers need to adjust their expectations in the second half of the season. He's not a WR2 like you drafted him. He's most likely a bench candidate; however, there aren't going to be very many waiver wire targets who are getting eight targets every other week. That's the kind of volume Ridley is getting right now.
As a WR4 and someone on your bench, that's a quality player to have on your roster. It stinks that you swung and missed big time on Ridley, but that doesn't mean you need to cut him just because he isn't meeting high expectations. Take that one on the chin, but accept that he's still absolutely a player who deserves to be rostered.
Sell High
TE George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers – 99% Rostered
Over Kittle's last three games, he's scored 19.1, 19.4, and 10.5 half-PPR points. If we go back five games, we add performances of 0.6 and 26.2 half-PPR points. Kittle is on a roll and there might be someone who favors him as a top-three tight end. If there is, I'd gladly move Kittle. Last year, when Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk were all on the field, Kittle’s target share was just 13.7%. The other three players all had a target share north of 21%. Kittle was the odd man out.
Fast forward to Week 11 of the 2023 season and that still holds true. There have been six games this season with all four players active. Kittle has 20 targets in those six games. In the other three games where Aiyuk and Samuel were inactive, Kittle had 27 targets alone. There are officially too many mouths to feed and Kittle is the runt of the litter.
This becomes an ever bigger problem looking at the overall team volume. San Francisco is attempting just 28.1 passes per game. This ranks 32nd in the league. While other tight ends may have a 12-14% target share, theirs are likely to go a lot further because their team has more passing volume. For Kittle, the reality is that Aiyuk, Samuel, and CMC are the first three primary options in a low-volume passing attack.
In the six games where all four have been active, he’s averaged 3.3 targets, 2.3 receptions, and 40.3 yards per game. He has 242 yards in those six games, but 116 came last week. In fact, 66 of those came on one reception. In the other three games where Aiyuk and Deebo were inactive, Kittle averaged 9.0 targets, 7.0 receptions, and 106.0 yards per game.
Luckily for Kittle, he's scored all four of his touchdowns on weeks where all four have been active, somewhat skewing our results. However, the per-game stats are incredibly concerning. He has four touchdowns on the year. Three came in one game where he had three catches. The fourth came this last week on a 66-yard touchdown.
The question you should ask yourself is how much fantasy goodness can really come from 3.3 targets per game because that's what he's averaging in six games with Aiyuk, CMC, and Deebo all active. The answer is going to be very little.
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