X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

The Cut List (Week 3) - Time to Let Go?

Nate Green's list of early-season busts and overvalued players who fantasy baseball owners may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 3 of the season.

We're now midway through April, and your trigger finger may be getting a bit itchy. The baseball season is only a couple weeks old, however, and with more than 90% of the season to go it is still really early. Most teams had played about eight games through last weekend, and now that number is closer to 14.

This week, the still-small samples will be handled by considering 2018 data (or, in one case, lack thereof). Some players found their way on a decent number of teams for past production that did not offer much promise for more, so a weak start to 2019 is more dangerous than it might be for someone who had more signs of breakout potential in their 2018 record. Last week's considerations of injury and playing time will be included again this week.

Last week, we didn't tell you who to pick up, directing you to our "fabulous RotoBaller Waiver Wire Pickup List blog for that." But whether you want to drop a player really does depend on what the wire has to offer. Starting this week, then, at the end of each drop suggestion, you'll find a link to the pickup list entry of a preferred player.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Week 3 Cut Candidates

Ian Desmond (1B/OF, COL)

Desmond is currently Yahoo's most-dropped hitter and with good reason. While he's still playing almost every day and batting fifth or sixth, he's hitting an anemic .160/.208/.220 through Friday, bad for a -2 wRC+. It may have been a flight of fancy to have drafted him in the first place, since last year showed no signs of better results this year; he had a .304 xwOBA. In fact, his best mark since Statcast came in 2015 was a .327 in 2016.

In both 2017 and 2018, he had an average launch angle of exactly 0.0, not where you want to be at Coors Field. If that park was going to help, it should have already done so in past years. So although the 2019 sample is small, it's not inconsistent with Desmond's record. Also worrying is Desmond's lack of steals; part of why shareholders tolerate his iffy bat is to get some of those steals, so he loses a lot of value without them. Despite a 143 ADP, it's not too early to cut loose.

Preferred pickup: Chad Pinder gives you positional flexibility too, but with much better offensive potential. Click here for more on Pinder.

Jung Ho Kang (3B, PIT)

Kang tried to put the moral and legal troubles that cost him 321 of 324 games in 2017-18 behind him with a seven-home run spring training this March. Unfortunately for him, it hasn't translated into 2019 regular season success, and Kang is hitting just .108/.195/.243 through Friday.

It's hard for anyone to hit MLB pitching, and it can only be harder if you've gone two years without seeing basically any of it. Kang's .193 xwOBA is in line with his .199 wOBA, and at age 32 with such a long layoff, it's possible that Kang won't figure it out at all this year. Kang also faces competition at third base from teammate Colin Moran, who is off to a .278/.409/.667 start, and Kang was out of the lineup for the third time in seven games on Saturday. There are plenty of warning signs here that suggest a cut.

Preferred pickup: Yandy Diaz has far surpassed Kang in ownership rates, but see if he's still around in your leagues. Chad Pinder can also serve as a Kang replacement at third base. It's even possible a question mark with very low ownership like Kang's teammate Moran holds more promise at this point, although perhaps that's a bridge too far. Click here for more on Diaz and see the Desmond entry for more on Pinder.

Michael Wacha (SP, STL)

Starting pitching has been a bit of a hellscape this season. Even if you want to cut a pitcher, is there really another hurler out there you can confidently say is better? Probably not, but sometimes you have to take the chance, and if Major League starters continue to stink, finding one of those breakouts could pay off more than ever.

Wacha was solid last year despite an injury in his 15th start that ultimately cost him the season, but beneath the 3.20 ERA were some concerns: a 4.22 FIP, a 4.12 xFIP, and a .350 xwOBA against. Wacha began to follow that up with a 1.54 ERA in 11.2 innings before getting blown up by the Dodgers on Thursday, but even in those first two games he walked a whopping 12 batters against 14 strikeouts. Including the Dodgers game he now has a 5.28 ERA, 6.85 FIP, and 5.05 xFIP.

Wacha's K rate has jumped this season despite a decline in swinging strikes, leaving a clear possibility that he falls to career strikeout rates (21.0%), which just won't be good enough with more typical BABIP luck than his good fortune in 2018. Steamer anticipates a rest-of-season ERA of 4.38, and ZiPS is even more pessimistic with a 4.59. Unlike the projections of a younger pitcher, these forecasts have a lot of MLB Michael Wacha to go on. Feel free to chase better upside.

Preferred pickup: Why not try a Brewers pitcher? Click here for information on Brandon Woodruff.

 

The Watch-Out List/Shallow-League Cuts

From Week 2: "Fantasy sites have watch lists for players that are not quite yet worth acquiring but should be monitored; the watch-out list, then, is owned players not quite worth cutting yet." Anticipate this hedge going away by May, but for now it's a useful way to discuss frustrating players that still have a reasonable shot at producing.

In leagues of 10 teams or shallower, feel free to cut these names as well. With 12 teams or more, be wary of giving up too soon.

All three players on last week's watch-out list survived, otherwise they would have "graduated" to this week's cut list up above. More on them at the end of the column.

Andrelton Simmons (SS, LAA)

For years now Simmons has been a batting average play with the occasional homer and steal from the middle infield. After posting an xBA between .269 and .288 each year from 2015-18, Simmons has only a .254 xBA early this season to back up his .216 average. The good signs are a 91.6 exit velocity and 8.2 launch angle, both of which would be the highest marks Simmons ever recorded in a full season.

The Angels aren't that great outside of Mike Trout and Simmons is a defensive wizard, so he'll continue to play. It's time to ax Simmons in OBP or OPS leagues, but consider giving him one more week in standard BA leagues. He did hit .292 last year, after all.

Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF, BOS)

Bradley was a popular sleeper pick this year, but it just hasn't happened yet. He's lost 3.2 mph of exit velocity and his xwOBA has crashed from .346 last year to .226 so far this season. His first barreled baseball has yet to appear. His ugly -7 wRC+ thru Friday is the worst among qualified hitters. It does look pretty bad, and even a big breakout probably wouldn't get Bradley higher than sixth or seventh in Boston's batting order.

If the underlying data from 2018 such as that .346 xwOBA or his 50.1% hard hit rate weren't there, Bradley would be a cut by now. He's also 2-for-2 stealing bases despite rarely reaching, so if he does get out of the slump, you should get some steals to go with it. Try sitting him on your bench in case those good signs from last year start to reappear.

Saturday the 13th was Bradley's first day not starting for Boston in an AL park, another sign that bears watching.

Sandy Alcantara (SP, MIA)

It's completely sensible to drop Alcantara, especially if you picked him up after his 2019 debut, but consider waiting one more start. After going from six strikeouts and no walks in his first game to five walks and no K's in his second, it was an open question what Alcantara would do in his third start, this one against Philadelphia's strong offense. He ended up allowing five runs on eight hits in a second-straight four-inning start.

However, more important than balls-on-play luck were the six K's against just one unintentional walk (with an IBB). The Cubs in Miami are next, and if his command struggles return, it's pretty safe to say Alcantara remains too inconsistent to trust.

 

Last Week's Updates

Dallas Keuchel (FA, SP) - Still unsigned, of course, but the longer you wait, the more you'll want to hang on as he will be pitching an ever-increasing remainder of the season. Say he debuts July 1st; if you dropped him May 1st you got two extra months of a roster spot, but if the drop came June 1st that's only one month. Right now, it's not too late to let him go.

Verdict: STILL A CUT

Hunter Strickland (RP, SEA) - Nothing has changed here. Until you need his IL spot, there's no harm in holding, but once you have a choice, you can let him go.

Verdict: STILL A CUT (if IL full)

Andrew Heaney (SP, LAA) - Heaney began playing catch this week but uncertainty remains about his timetable and productivity once he does return.

Verdict: STILL A CUT (if IL full)

Jose Martinez (1B/OF, STL) - Martinez only started two more games this week. The more recent of those on April 11th was a 4-for-5 day that lifted his season line to .259/.259/.333 with still no home runs. The lack of both playing time and power continues to be a double-whammy for Martinez's value.

Verdict: STILL A CUT

Johan Camargo (3B/SS, ATL) - Camargo started on April 6th, 7th, and 11th, and the Braves are trying to get him some playing time in the outfield. There are still players getting more time on the field and producing more than Camargo's .105/.227/.316, so you can probably continue to do better. But he's gotten a little more interesting.

Verdict: STILL A CUT / potential watch list

Franmil Reyes (OF, SD) - The Padres are showing a willingness to go to that Hunter Renfroe-Wil Myers-Reyes outfield alignment, using it twice this week, and the results are starting to come in for Reyes as well.

Verdict: HOLD

Jesse Winker (OF, CIN) - The Reds offense finally heated up this past week. Fortunately, Winker was a key contributor to that resurgence and is staying in the lineup most nights while continuing to lead off in those games.

Verdict: HOLD

Jake Arrieta (SP, PHI) - Despite a somewhat modest 10 whiffs on 108 pitches, Arrieta was great against the Marlins on Friday, allowing one run with no homers, one walk, and eight K's. The underlying skills remain a bit concerning, but it was a bit too aggressive to name him last week. Still...maybe see if you can swing a trade?

Verdict: HOLD

More Fantasy Baseball Busts and Avoids




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Uchenna Nwosu

Seahawks Place Uchenna Nwosu on PUP List
Taylor Decker

Alim McNeill, Taylor Decker Placed on PUP List
Tyrion Davis-Price

Titans Waive Tyrion Davis-Price
Tre Harris

Chargers Relying on Tre Harris to Be Starting X Receiver
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Micah Parsons

Will Become Highest-Paid Non-QB
MarShawn Lloyd

Vying for RB2 Role
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith Finds End Zone in First Training Camp Practice
Tyler Shough

Pushing for Fully Guaranteed Rookie Deal
Ar'Darius Washington

Goes on PUP List
Lamar Jackson

to be Even Better in 2025?
Tre Harris

Agrees to Terms on Rookie Deal
Justin Herbert

Off to Good Start at Training Camp
Jameson Williams

Earning Rave Reviews from Lions Coaches
Christian Mahogany

Expected to Start for Lions
Zach Allen

an Extension Candidate in Denver?
Zaire Franklin

May Miss Start of Training Camp
Portland Trail Blazers

Damian Lillard Returning to Portland
Mason Taylor

to Play "Crucial" Role in Jets' Offense
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
T.J. Watt

Once Again Becomes Highest-Paid Non-QB
RJ Harvey

Reaches Agreement on Four-Year Rookie Contract
Rashee Rice

Chiefs Believe Rashee Rice Will Receive Two- to Four-Game Suspension
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF