The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Fantasy Baseball Week 21

August 13, 2024

Jamie's list of busts, overvalued, and injured players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 21 of the 2024 MLB season.

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 21 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season -- August 12 through August 18. This is our weekly article looking at players whom fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players worthy of a drop, those worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. Decisions on who to drop will change as the season nears the end. Specific categories and needs will alter how we view and value players.

If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord (which you can join by clicking here), or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

J.T. Realmuto - C, Philadelphia Phillies - 91% rostered

Realmuto may be the most rostered victim of The Cut List this year. That is unsurprising given his numbers. After 65 games, Realmuto has eight homers, 23 RBI, 34 runs, and one stolen base with a .246/.304/.381 slash line. Realmuto's numbers weren't too bad to start the season. He was hitting .261/.309/.411 with seven home runs before hitting the IL with a knee injury (meniscus tear).

There was a possibility that Realmuto could continue to play through the injury. He ended up getting surgery and missing six weeks. And the absence doesn't appear to have helped him at all. Since returning on July 20, Realmuto is hitting .189/.283/.264. It's only been 14 games but something seems off. And the one thing Realmuto used to have over other catchers was the stolen bases.

He's yet to try a steal since his return and was only 1-for-3 in stolen-base attempts before the injury. Realmuto has not been making good contact, either. His 34.1% hard-hit% is down from 48.0% (pre-injury) and his 4.5% Barrel% is down from 10.8%. Still a small sample but worrying nonetheless. If Realmuto was trending for a big season before the injury, I'd be more bullish. But it seems like the volume of work over the years is starting to take a toll.

Verdict: Without the stolen bases, Realmuto falls into the "just another catcher" category. He is on a good team and has a decent number of RBI and runs in 65 games. If it is RBI and runs you need, Realmuto is fine to roster. The double-digit steals you expected when drafting him won't materialize and he's only got average power. Realmuto is very much "need-dependent" as to whether you roster him in shallower leagues.

Garrett Crochet - SP/RP, Chicago White Sox - 88% rostered

If we based things solely on performance, there'd be no way Crochet finds himself on The Cut List. And definitely not as someone I'd advocate dropping. The problem has not been Crochet's numbers. In 24 starts, he has a 6-9 W-L record, 3.65 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 167 Ks (120.2 IP). Only two pitchers have more strikeouts than Crochet and he'd likely garner some Cy Young Award votes if he maintained a full workload over the final two months.

That's where the problem is; Crochet isn't getting a full workload. Nor will he over the remainder of the season. The expectation throughout July was that Crochet would get traded. However, the trade deadline came and went without Crochet moving. Understandably, Crochet wanted to protect his future with reports coming out that he'd only pitch in October if he were to get an extension to whichever team traded for him.

.@Ken_Rosenthal sheds some light on why the @WhiteSox didn't trade Garrett Crochet at the deadline 👀 pic.twitter.com/fptgwyLf9i

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) August 2, 2024

As outlined here, there was a bit more to it than that. The White Sox felt they could get a better return in the offseason. It's not an organization that you associate smart moves with but this makes sense. Either way, Crochet is going to be pitching for the worst team in baseball for the rest of 2024. He could be shut down sometime in September. And he won't be throwing enough innings to be impactful on your fantasy teams.

Crochet missed the entire 2022 season following Tommy John surgery (TJS). He made just 13 relief appearances for the White Sox last year (12.2 IP). Crochet's 54.1 IP in 2021 was the most he's managed in a season since being drafted in 2020. Already doubling that this year meant what we're seeing was always likely. If we look at Crochet's recent starts, we'll get an idea of what to expect moving forward.

Crochet has not recorded more than 12 outs in a start since June. He's not thrown more than 77 pitches in his last four starts. Crochet hasn't helped himself recently and Friday's outing was his worst of the season. Before Friday, Crochet had allowed just four home runs in his previous 15 starts. The Cubs shelled him for seven runs with four of the 16 batters he faced going deep. It was likely the catalyst fantasy managers needed to drop him.

Verdict: Assuming Crochet can rediscover his form, he can still carry some value in deep leagues. His 33.8% K% is in the 97th percentile so even pitching four innings should see him rack up a solid number of strikeouts. His ERA is climbing and given we're in uncharted territory concerning Crochet's workload, that shouldn't be a surprise. The White Sox will continue to protect Crochet and that leaves him with little value in redraft leagues.

Hold For Now

Spencer Steer - 1B/2B/3B/OF, Cincinnati Reds - 96% rostered

Steer started off the season looking like he could be one of the draft-day bargains. He is still set to provide value on his ADP (~99) given he's currently ranked 69th overall on Yahoo! On the year, Steer has 16 homers, 68 RBI, 57 runs, and 18 steals with a .232/.319/.418 slash line (113 games). With a 162-game pace of 23 home runs, 97 RBI, 82 runs, and 26 stolen bases, Steer is likely to finish up having a 20/20 season.

So, why would Steer be considered a drop? Well, his batting average is a drag and he started August as cold as cold can be. A 1-for-18 stretch to begin the month saw Steer benched on Wednesday for a breather. He returned on Thursday with a two-hit performance and then homered on Friday. Steer has now gone 5-for-11 in the last three games. The day off may have helped him to turn the corner.

Stick with it, stay patient: Spencer Steer was pleased with his two hits tonight and the @Reds approach at the plate, especially in extras.#ATOBTTR | @anniesabo_ pic.twitter.com/VCAlImE9bA

— Bally Sports Cincinnati (@BallySportsCIN) August 9, 2024

There are two reasons why I'd be holding on to Steer. The first is mentioned in the introduction; "A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone." The second is that Steer's batting average won't have such a negative impact at this stage of the season. And he's offset that negative impact with the counting stats. Only three other players can match or better Steer's home run, RBI, runs, and stolen-base totals.

Steer hitting .184 over the last 30 days isn't ideal. And with a .241 xBA (expected batting average), it's not like he's likely to end the year with much improvement on his batting average. But Steer's positional versatility and consistent tallying of stats make him someone I'd be continuing to hold in all formats.

Isaac Paredes - 1B/2B/3B, Chicago Cubs - 86% rostered

The Rays trading Paredes wouldn't have come as a shock. The fact the Cubs were the ones to acquire Paredes did surprise many. He's not got off to a great start in Chicago, hitting .190/.255/.405 in his first 11 games. Paredes does seem to have started settling in with two homers and eight RBI in his last four games. On the year, Paredes is hitting .239/.348/.427 with 17 homers, 59 RBI, 46 runs, and no steals (109 games).

The trade might not help Paredes' value as much as you might think. The Cubs do have the better offense, outscoring the Rays this year by 45 runs. And Wrigley Field is an overall better hitters park than Tropicana Field. But it's the power that may suffer. For home runs, the two ballparks are almost identical, according to Statcast's Park Factors. If we look at Paredes' hits spray charts for 2023 and this year, we can see where his power lies.

Paredes has never hit a home run to right field in the majors. Paredes' expected home-run total at Tropicana Field this year is 22. At Wrigley Field, it's 13. Paredes did hit his first home run in Chicago on Wednesday, so hopefully, he can continue to put up solid power numbers with the Cubs. He's not going to hit for a good batting average but as long as he can hit for power and drive in runs (like he's done this week), Paredes has fantasy value.

While there are other factors in play when a player gets traded, we cannot quantify them. It's tough to move your entire life to another part of the country midseason. But all we can do is go by the numbers. And while Paredes' numbers aren't great, they're still good enough to warrant rostering him. If at the end of August, Paredes hasn't adjusted to life with the Cubs, is batting under .200, and struggling to hit homers, then a change should be made.

On the Hot Seat

Tanner Houck - SP, Boston Red Sox - 88% rostered

After threatening a breakout previously, Houck has delivered this year. After 22 starts, he has an 8-8 W-L record, 3.02 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 124 Ks (140.0 IP). He's ranked 28th among eligible starting pitchers on Yahoo!, so he has certainly outperformed his Average Draft Position (ADP) of ~393. The problem has been Houck's recent performances. And similarly to Crochet, we're witnessing a career-high for innings pitched.

Unlike Crochet, we're not dealing with a pitcher who missed more than a year due to injury. Houck has already set a career-high for innings pitched, which was previously set in 2018 (119.0 IP). That might help explain why he's got a 5.40 ERA over his last seven starts and a 5.48 ERA over his last four starts. Another reason for Houck's recent elevated ERA could simply be down to natural regression.

The good news is that Houck was excellent on Friday. He limited the Astros to one run across six innings. Although Houck only struck out one batter, he restricted Houston to four hits and three walks. It was a much-needed outing from Houck after struggling in some of the more difficult matchups recently. More on that shortly.

Houck had a 2.18 ERA after his first 16 starts of the season. But it's not like his success was down to smoke and mirrors. Houck had a 3.01 xFIP and 3.14 SIERA after his 16th start of the season. So while he was outperforming expectations, Houck was genuinely good. If we look at his ERA and xFIP across the season, we can see that the difference has narrowed in recent weeks.

As of now, Houck has a 3.50 xFIP and 3.71 SIERA. Even if Houck's ERA does end up being near those numbers, it's not like he'll have been shellacked in the next few weeks. As well as a workload we've not seen before, there is another reason to be concerned about Houck and his recent performances. They've come against good offenses. Much of his early schedule was pitcher-friendly. The coming fortnight is not.

After Friday's start against the Astros, things don't get any easier. Houck's next two starts are currently lined up to be against the Orioles and the Astros again. The Red Sox still have a series against the Tigers and one against the White Sox. He could get to face both as things currently look. But outside of those two starts, it's difficult to fully trust Houck given he's not been very good against most strong offenses before Friday.

There's no reason to panic and drop Houck just yet. Even if he struggles in his next two starts. If Houck can't repeat Friday against the Orioles and Astros and then doesn't perform well against the Tigers and White Sox, there'll be little reason to keep him rostered for the final few starts of the season. For now, hold. Monitor him closely. And hope that Houck can return to his early season form.

Reader Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X, and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

Brice Turang - 2B/SS, Milwaukee Brewers - 78% rostered

Turang flashed his speed last year, stealing 26 bases in 137 games. Unfortunately, they came with a .218/.285/.300 slash line and little else of fantasy value. Turang has taken a step forward this year, hitting .257/.318/.359 with seven home runs, 48 RBI, 53 runs, and 33 stolen bases (111 games). After an impressive first three months of the season, Turang struggled mightily in July, hitting just .169/.221/.191. That's left fantasy managers wondering what to do with Turang.

Turang's biggest fantasy asset is his speed. His 29.3 ft/sec ranks in the 95th percentile and only Elly De La Cruz (58) has more steals than Turang. He doesn't strike out much (17.2% K%) but still has a below-average bat. We can see from Turang's Statcast profile that he isn't going to provide power or much else aside from the steals.

Turang is also getting fewer starts against LHP (left-handed pitching). He's only hitting .239/.313/.296 against lefties, so while not as bad as others in platoons, it's still not great. That will reduce his fantasy value further. Andruw Monasterio has gotten the start against the last two lefties starters the Brewers have faced. He's hitting just .191/.309/.298 against lefties. So it's not inconceivable to believe Turang won't start more than he sits against LHP moving forward.

Outside of the stolen bases, there's little else that Turang will offer in most fantasy leagues. His low strikeout rate will help in some points leagues, but as of right now, Turang is only worth holding on to if you need stolen bases. In most cases, Turang should be able to give teams a handful of steals in August. Then you will have a good idea as to how much more value he can provide your teams before the end of the season.

Francisco Alvarez - C, New York Mets - 62% rostered

In a similar manner to Realmuto, Alvarez had a decent start to the season before landing on the IL. Alvarez missed nearly two months after suffering a thumb injury. In the two months since returning, he's been one of the best catchers in baseball, hitting .273/.335/.441. On the season, Alvarez has five homers, 27 RBI, 21 runs, and one stolen base with a .263/.323/.419 slash line.

Since his return on June 11, Alvarez has a 121 wRC+. That's 10th best among catchers with at least 100 plate appearances. If we compare his numbers among those 33 catchers, we can see how Alvarez ranks at the position. This shows that Alvarez has performed well but has not been rewarded with the counting stats.

Being a top-12 catcher in what he does at the plate hasn't translated into the RBI and runs you would expect. Given the Mets rank second in runs scored (280) since June 11, that will be a source of frustration. As long as Alvarez is performing well, it's tough to make a case to drop him given the last of good catcher options on waivers. While he's not a definite hold in one catcher leagues, you'll do well to find someone better to replace him with.

Gavin Stone - SP, Los Angeles Dodgers - 61% rostered

With a decimated rotation, the Dodgers had to look for someone to step up early in the season. Stone did just that. At the end of June, Stone had a 2.73 ERA (15 starts) and had just thrown a complete-game shutout against the White Sox. Since then, things haven't gone well. In his last six starts, Stone has a 6.91 ERA (27.1 IP) with his last quality start being the shutout of the White Sox. He's only completed five innings twice in those six starts.

Stone's underlying numbers suggested that regression was likely. His 2.73 ERA after 15 starts was despite having a 4.10 xFIP and 4.33 SIERA. Following his recent struggles, Stone now has a 9-5 W-L record, 3.71 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 89 Ks (116.1 IP). Given he's sporting a 4.21 xFIP and 4.42 SIERA, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect Stone's ERA to creep up a little bit more.

Despite the recent struggles, Stone isn't a definite cut. In shallower leagues, you probably don't need to roster him. Unless your rotation has fallen apart through injuries or poor performances, he's more of a streaming option against weaker teams. Stone doesn't strike out enough batters to provide help there. In deeper leagues, Stone is worth holding but not necessarily a certain start. He's a borderline rosterable starter in most standard leagues.

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