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John's dynasty fantasy football mock draft for startup Superflex leagues. His four-round startup draft with expert advice, picks, and analysis for 2025.
Superflex leagues have been gaining popularity in dynasty fantasy football circles in recent years. The added challenge of this format, which makes the quarterback position both scarce and far more important, is an attractive feature that many of football's biggest fans (and nerds) have readily flocked to.
In superflex leagues, there is an additional "superflex" spot (hence the name, obviously) which allows you to start a wide receiver, tight end, running back, OR quarterback. This, whiffing on your QBs in a startup draft, also comes with a very, very heavy cost. There can often be long periods in which no great quarterback prospects enter the NFL Draft.
In addition, it's tough to get your picks right in rookie drafts because consensus often gets things terribly wrong. The other positions are important as well, of course. Startup drafts are the main drivers of your fantasy rosters' fates for years after the league starts. So let's dive into a mock draft for superflex dynasty fantasy football leagues
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Round 1
1.01 - Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
The quarterback with seemingly the best combination of young age, rushing upside, passing prowess, and proven production (at least one season) is Daniels, who had a standout season as a rookie. His weapons weren't that impressive last year either, as wide receiver Terry McLaurin was his only real receiving threat.
THE EAGLES DEFENSE WASN’T READY TO SEE A HEALTHY JAYDEN DANIELS
5 TD’s INCLUDING THE GAME WINNER
pic.twitter.com/hhe85Ifs3j— 🚀 DC Rising 🚀 (@DC__Rising) December 22, 2024
Daniels has proven himself to have huge upside, and with WR Deebo Samuel Sr. now in the mix, as well as quality reinforcements on the offensive line, an even more impressive 2025 season looks to be in store for Daniels. The next player on this list is likely just as deserving as Daniels of this spot, though.
1.02 - Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Allen has finished as the QB1 or QB2 in each of the last five seasons. He has a cannon for an arm, has developed very well as a passer in his career, and is over 235 pounds with pretty damn good wheels. It's no surprise that he'll be one of the first players off the board in a superflex startup.
Nobody did more with less than Josh Allen last year pic.twitter.com/8n2xmDWWOT
— Steven Patton (@PattonAnalytics) May 6, 2025
He probably won't budge from this spot, and with good reason. The Bills did their usual thing and signed some more mediocre receivers, but that's not super important.
1.03 - Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
Jackson and the two guys above him should be the first three players off the board, without a doubt. Jackson had his best season as a passer in 2024, throwing for 4,172 yards, 41 TDs, and just nine interceptions. He'll have pretty much the same weapons he had last year in 2025, if tight end Mark Andrews isn't traded.
Lamar Jackson - 14/17, 228 pass yards, 3 TDs, 118 rush yards, 1 TD.
PAY THAT MAN! 💰pic.twitter.com/Lnza2qyazR
— Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) September 18, 2022
Jackson is the best rushing quarterback in the history of the NFL and was a hyper-productive passer last season. We might see him become a less effective rusher at some point in his 30s, but that's not worth considering right now.
1.04 - Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Way too much of Hurts' value is tied up with the tush push for me to be comfortable drafting him in startup leagues. Even with five fewer rushing touchdowns per season, his value will take a hit. Right now, the NFL competition committee hasn't decided on anything, though.
Jalen Hurts 2023-2024: 21.7 PPG (QB5)
Remove his 22 tush push touchdowns: 16.1 PPG (QB20)
Let him “keep” half those TDs: 18.9 PPG (QB12)
With news the tush push is trending towards being banned, Hurts is about to lose half his dynasty value. Sell now.
— Dynasty Zoltan (@DynastyZoltanFF) March 28, 2025
We'll see what happens. But I'd rather have someone like the next guy on this list, especially in 6-point passing TD leagues.
1.05 - Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Burrow checks in lower than the top-4 guys on this list purely because he doesn't have a ton of rushing upside. He mostly makes up for it by being one of the best passers in the league. Having two elite wide receivers and a defense that forces the team into shootouts consistently helps with that, too.
Man I miss hearing Joe Burrow’s “turbooooo set hut” 60 times a Sunday. pic.twitter.com/xLIRVrUFkW
— Patrick Carey (@PatCareySports) May 3, 2025
I'd rather have Burrow than Hurts early in Round 1.
1.06 - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
One of the best wide receivers in the league is paired with one of the best quarterbacks in the league on a pass-happy offense with poor rushing success and a terrible defense. The recipe for nuclear detonations of 40 or more PPR fantasy points involves the above ingredients, and we've seen it play out multiple times now.
In honor of 9-1 day, here’s JaMarr Chase going for 266 yards and 3 TDs against the Chiefs his rookie year. pic.twitter.com/9wWvplyccv
— The Nati King (@thenatiking) September 1, 2024
Can't complain about picking him here.
1.07 - Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Jefferson will probably have the best quarterback he's had in his career in J.J. McCarthy. Kirk Cousins was just fine, and Sam Darnold was terrible. Jefferson is arguably the best WR in the league, and is the best combination of route-runner and separator there is.
JJ McCarthy is DESTINED to be a star and Justin Jefferson knows it 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/sL0pwGRogI
— Cam (@42Cyc) May 3, 2025
Jefferson will be just 26 when the 2025 season starts, too.
1.08 - Patrick Mahomes II, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
I don't know why you'd spend such a high pick on Mahomes here, but people won't let go of his ridiculous earlier seasons. The fact is that tight end Travis Kelce is washed, and Mahomes hasn't been nearly as productive since Kelce's precipitous decline.
Patrick Mahomes doesn’t look right. He’s been erratic, making head scratching decisions, and he’s giving the ball to the opposing team too often. His connection with Kelce is being removed from the offense by defenses and I think it’s making him uncomfortable.
— Daniel Harms (@InHarmsWay19) September 23, 2024
I'd not be interested in Mahomes in Round 1, even with the receiver help they've gotten him in the past few years. He's been mediocre for the past two seasons.
1.09 - Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Robinson had a fantastic 2024 and plays in a historically weak conference (the NFC South). Age is on his side, too, as he's just 23 years old. We could see six or more years of great production beyond this. Robinson is unlikely to get much competition in his backfield any time soon, either.
Bijan Robinson is just unbelievable.
Runs like this feel totally routine pic.twitter.com/SHIVDYX69D
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 3, 2024
He's absolutely special at changing direction, has workhorse ability, and is a great pass-catcher.
1.10 - CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys just traded for WR George Pickens. This makes little difference in Lamb's long-term value. I'm more worried about quarterback Dak Prescott's decline and what the team's options will be after he leaves. We're in for at least a few upcoming years of rough QB play for Dallas.
CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens - just look at their reception heat maps
This WILL work and probably work very very well for the #DallasCowboys pic.twitter.com/7sryBmv2K1
— Ray G (@RayGQue) May 7, 2025
I'd bump Lamb down a few spots, through no fault of his own.
1.11 - C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
Well, we've seen what Stroud plays like when he has a poor offensive coordinator, a bad offensive line, and very little WR depth. But it was a lot uglier than it should have been. Stroud has struggled under pressure throughout his career, which I really don't like for his long-term prospects.
I'd be unwilling to take him in Round 1 for these reasons.
1.12 - Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
Gibbs' chances of getting a workhorse role in his offense don't seem to be super high, but he makes up for it with elite efficiency. He also has great receiving chops and elite speed. The fact that he's been this productive without elite rushing volume is impressive.
Jahmyr Gibbs in open space is the most
DANGEROUS player in the NFL 🔥#OnePride pic.twitter.com/rjPOIJWiph— Crunch Time Sports (@officialctpod) May 6, 2025
Detroit has an elite offensive line, too. Not a bad pick, if you can stomach an RB in Round 1.
Round 2
2.01 - Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
I think I'd rather have Nabers than Gibbs, but I'm also fine with waiting for the QB situation to work itself out. It won't under Wilson, but I have faith that newly drafted rookie Jaxson Dart will take over the job soon and be the team's starter for years to come. And he should help Nabers rack up huge numbers.
2.02 - Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
Perhaps at some point, the duo of wide receivers Ladd McConkey and Tre Harris, a rookie selected in the 2025 NFL Draft, can help Herbert put up fantasy stat lines reminiscent of his days with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Williams is back, but he might not be much of a factor.
Greg Roman's run-heavy offense might not help much, but Herbert is much better off with two talented young WRs than he was last season.
2.03 - Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
St. Brown is a very good receiver. He gets a lot of targets. He separates well. He's in a stable organization. He's played lights out in the fantasy playoffs every season, including his rookie year. There's not much to dislike about him.
The new-look Lions won't have Ben Johnson as their offensive coordinator anymore, but you shouldn't be worried. ARSB got paid and still balled out.
2.04 - Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
If you're worried about wide receiver Davante Adams taking volume away from Nacua, don't be. Be more worried about Matthew Stafford getting really old. His career is drawing to a close, and the Rams don't really have a plan to replace him yet.
Nacua is a stud, but keep your eyes on the quarterback situation. There's definitely a risk of a purgatory period. Also he wants to retire when he's 30, apparently.
2.05 - Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots
A large part of the fantasy community liked to bash Maye for his poor statistical performance in 2024. Yet he had zero offensive line and zero receiving weapons. He's getting a nice coaching upgrade with Mike Vrabel now serving as HC, is very young, and has fantastic rushing upside.
I'd be willing to pick him as early as the end of the first round. The future is bright.
2.06 - Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Thomas absolutely lit the league up and was the best rookie receiver from the stacked 2024 NFL Draft class. We probably haven't even seen the best of him yet. Despite his huge numbers, he suffered from poor quarterback play and a terrible offensive system for much of last season.
Brian Thomas Jr goes for 6-250-4 in an alternative universe this past week pic.twitter.com/yyCnkZjd0C
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) December 2, 2024
Thomas will now join forces with rookie two-way star Travis Hunter, who will play mostly WR. This was once a controversial position that I held, but thankfully, the Jaguars head coach, Liam Coen, confirmed it. This is a good thing for Thomas. He will have long-term help drawing away coverages. He should be drafted a bit higher than this.
2.07 - Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
The Bears are once again offseason champions! Back-to-back. What a feat! Regardless, Williams got a massive upgrade at head coach, his team drafted an elite tight end and an explosive WR with their first two picks, and they also drafted and signed a ton of reinforcements along the offensive line.
A Bears off-season can still be successful without going OL or DL at 10
Free agency:
G Will Fries = $14M yr
G Kevin Zeitler = $9M yr
DE Chase Young = $17.5M yr
Total = $40.5M
(Just under half of the projected available $$$)Starting OL
LT Braxton Jones
LG Will Fries
C Ryan… pic.twitter.com/DHuOXFNtUz— Nick Whalen (@_NickWhalen) February 23, 2025
Williams is set up for long-term success, if he can improve his game. He has a fantastic support system right now. Still, his rookie season was abysmal. Even when his receivers were open, he missed them constantly. This isn't something you can blame the coaching for, as much as some people would like to do.
Caleb Williams when his receivers were "wide open", "open", or had a "step" in 2024.. per @FantasyPtsData:
+ 5.5% CPOE (33rd/36 QBs)
+ 83.6% Catchable throw rate (33rd)
+ 8.35 Adjusted Net Yds/Att (34th)No valid excuses for Caleb here, just missing open WRs at a high rate. https://t.co/BAOttvFtlx
— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) May 23, 2025
And for those who want to blame the offensive line, Williams was absolutely horrifically inaccurate on throws beyond 10 yards even with a clean pocket. The evidence is overwhelming that he has a lot of work to do, and/or Johnson will have to heavily scheme around Williams' flaws.
Caleb Williams delivered a 58% catchable ball rate on throws of 10-19 air yards without pressure in 2024.
QB39 out of 39 qualifiers
(Source: @FantasyPtsData) https://t.co/q0niUbkKI8 pic.twitter.com/dL2qIUKSFS
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) May 22, 2025
I'm avoiding Williams. To bet on him is to bet on Johnson to some degree, though, so that's not terrible.
2.08 - Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
I don't think I'm comfortable picking a player we don't know very much about. Choosing wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., for example, in the first round of a 2024 superflex dynasty startup wasn't such a great idea. People love repeating their same fantasy football mistakes over and over again, though.
Jeanty is easily the most hyped player to come out of a non Power-4 college in a long time. I'd advise caution. He's being drafted incredibly close to his ceiling. I'd argue this is a poor pick.
2.09 - Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos
Nix had an impressive rookie season. Being with head coach Sean Payton helps, and his rushing upside is tantalizing. The Broncos have some work to do to bolster their pass-catching group, but it might not matter much. I'm fine with taking Nix here. He seems like a safe pick at QB, the most important position in superflex by far.
2.10 - Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers
I'm a lot less excited about Love than I am for some other players around this spot. The most concerning thing for me was Green Bay's extremely low pass rate last season. They ran the ball over 50 percent of the time, and in Love's last six games before his final injury, he averaged just 16 completions per game.
Jordan Love averaged just 16 pass completions per game in Weeks 12-17. I'm not interested in drafting him anywhere at his ADP, really. The Packers got a workhorse RB in Josh Jacobs and ran the ball WAY more in 2025 than they did in 2024. Love is overpriced in fantasy pic.twitter.com/6zdj3LiQVq
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) May 7, 2025
He did deal with injury issues, sure, but he doesn't have the rushing upside to allow me to overlook this.
2.11 - Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
I'm usually not interested in drafting tight ends early, especially in dynasty superflex leagues. Bowers was the best TE prospect ever coming out of college, though, and he shredded defenses in Year 1. He's getting a quarterback upgrade in Geno Smith, too. That's worth a lot.
Bowers is probably a fine pick here. He should remain the team's de-facto WR1 moving forward, and I anticipate him having an even bigger season in 2025 than he did in 2024.
2.12 - Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
The Texans drafted both wide receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel in the 2025 NFL Draft. They were both players I anticipated being fantasy studs in Year 1, and while that might not happen, they, along with WR Christian Kirk, present a lot of target competition for Collins.
I love what the #Texans did with their WR core to pair with Nico Collins.
Jayden Higgins (2nd round)
Jaylin Noel (3rd round) pic.twitter.com/6YJ5gmwiWx— Pick 6 Pack (@Pick6PackFB) April 28, 2025
Collins was an absolute stud in 2023 and 2024. When he was healthy. His injury history is concerning, and it's kept him off the field for 17 games over the course of his first four seasons. That's depressed his fantasy value, as will the presences of Noel and Higgins moving forward. I'd probably prefer to take someone like the Falcons WR1 here instead.
Round 3
A quick note: from this point forward, I'll just list the picks for a reasonable mock, without analysis following, for brevity.
3.01 - Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Ok, I'll remark on this one at least. Last one, I promise (maybe). Barkley is a bit too low for my tastes.
3.02 - Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
3.03 - Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
3.04 - Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
3.05 - A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
3.06 - Omarion Hampton, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
3.07 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
3.08 - De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
3.09 - Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3.10 - Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3.11 - Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers
3.12 - Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
Round 4
4.01 - Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
4.02 - Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
4.03 - Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers
4.04 - Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals
4.05 - Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
4.06 - Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
4.07 - Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Jacksonville Jaguars
I can't help but comment on this one too. Hunter is just too low here. He belongs in Round 3, easily.
4.08 - J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings
4.09 - Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
4.10 - Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Also this one. Don't take him. Rookie Jarquez Hunter might honestly be a better player than Williams.
4.11 - Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
4.12 - DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
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