Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:


Already have an account? Log in here.


Forgot Password


Why You Shouldn't Buy Stefon Diggs..... Yet

You already know where I am going with this article so we need to get something out of the way right now. Just because I am down on a player doesn’t mean I don’t like him. That holds true for Stefon Diggs. I think Diggs is immensely talented and has all the potential to become a great receiver, but as the article states, I am not buying yet.

I am going to continue to let the fantasy community fight over Diggs this off-season. You want to maximize the return on your investment. Diggs is like a brand-new car for me. I am going to let someone else purchase the car first, use it for a while, decide they want to upgrade and trade it in. I’ll go ahead and purchase the car after you for half the price, with some use, but still plenty of miles left.

All ADP data used for this article is from Fantasy Football Calculator Dynasty, 12-team ADP on 07/05/2018.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!


Why I'm Not Digging Diggs

Does the ADP lie to us?

My biggest issue with Diggs is that almost everyone who buys him does so purely on talent. That seems to be the biggest argument from Diggs fans as to why we need to be buying him as a WR1 right now. I’m not buying fantasy players based on talent alone. With the exception of rookies and some second-year players, I like to see production and situation. I understand that if he breaks out in 2018 that you will never get him at this price again. I am willing to take that risk.

Right now, Diggs' ADP sits at 25.4, so you would be buying Diggs as the WR12. Since Diggs entered the league in 2015, he has finished as the WR46, WR30 and then finally made the jump to WR19 this past season. Just last off-season, Diggs had an ADP of 42.9 and was the WR22 in dynasty drafts. He was even being drafted behind Terrelle Pryor and Jarvis Landry. Landry just put together a WR1 season and is surrounded by just as many weapons as Diggs, but now has fallen behind Diggs with an ADP of 41.8. So what else concerns me outside of production?

Injury History

During Diggs' first three seasons, he has already missed 10 games. That is not something I want to worry about with my WR1. Diggs has missed games with a groin injury two separate times while also missing time with a hip strain and a knee strain. Teammate Adam Thielen is only three years older, has more catches and receptions over the past two years while not missing a game in the past four years. Even with that on Thielen’s resume, he’s going 24.7 spots later than Diggs. This leads me back to a previous point though, Diggs is being drafted on talent alone because they both have the same opportunity in the same offense with the same quarterback, but one has been more productive and played in more games the past two seasons.

Same Faces, New Places

The Vikings have added what they believe to be the missing link to their Super Bowl run. Kirk Cousins heads to the Twin Cities and while many fantasy owners think he is the key to the Vikings success on offense, should we tone down our excitement a little? Cousins has been good the last three seasons finishing as the QB6, QB5 and QB8. So, there is no doubt he will produce again for fantasy owners, but the question is about how players finish around him.

During his three full years, Cousins hasn’t produced a top receiver. In 2015, Pierre Garcon finished as the WR31, in 2016 Garcon finished as the WR23 and in 2017, Jamison Crowder finished as WR31. The best finish from a wide receiver under Cousins is borderline WR2/3. Cousins will spread the ball around and not lean on one receiver.

During the last three seasons, Cousins has used his tight ends and running backs extensively.

2017 2016 2015
Cousins Attempts 540 606 543
RB/TE Targets 236 239 233

Just over 42% of the time Cousins would target his running backs or tight ends since he took over full time in 2015. Even when Jordan Reed couldn’t find his way onto the field the last two seasons, Cousins still used Vernon Davis. Cousins will now get to use Kyle Rudolph and Dalvin Cook in Minnesota who boast more combined talent than the options in Washington the last few years.

Uncharted Territory

One thing we haven’t seen happen very often is high-profile quarterbacks changing teams. We saw Jay Cutler move from the Bears to the Dolphins last season after contemplating retirement. The results were less than fantastic. It can take some time for quarterbacks and wide receivers to gel and meet their full potential. Since Cousins already has used his tight ends and running backs heavily in the past, it could be the case the Cousins develops a relationship with Rudolph and Cook before Diggs and Thielen.

We have seen receivers struggle with new teams, most recently Marvin Jones with the Lions in 2016 and Pryor for the Redskins in 2017. Could the same struggles be true the other way around? Maybe it will take time for a new quarterback to fully integrate into a system.  I liken it to a rookie quarterback who must learn a new offense and build a report with new receivers. Since 2014, only one rookie quarterback has finished as a QB1. Cousins will be a QB1 in 2018, but he won’t make Diggs a WR1.

Why 2018 isn’t the Year

As I said at the beginning of this piece, I am not buying Diggs prior to the 2018 season. If he busts out and has a fantastic season, then I missed my time to buy, that’s okay. However, maybe he struggles in 2018, then the Vikings decide they want to move on from him and he goes to a new team. What if he struggles again? I have now had to invest in Diggs as a WR1 when it could be a minimum of two years before I get the return on the investment I made. I think Diggs has a ton of talent and will excel at some point, but because I don’t believe in him for 2018, I’ll hold off and buy when his value goes down again next off-season.


More ADP Draft Analysis

More Recent Articles


FAAB Bidding - Week 11 Waiver Wire Targets

Assisting our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB). As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will... Read More

Week 11 Waiver Wire Pickups & Adds

It's crunch time, with precious few games left before the fantasy regular season ends. There aren't many new names emerging on the waiver wire at this juncture but the RB situations in Atlanta and Detroit bear watching, while the Jets passing game has shown signs of life. No, really. Each week, we will advise you... Read More

Deeper League Free Agent Pickups for Week 11

Rotoballers, if you're not active on the waiver wire this time of year, there are only two reasonable explanations: 1) You're sitting at 3-7 (or worse) and don't find it enjoyable to play spoiler to your league mates, or 2) You're 8-2 (or better) and have nothing but matchup-proof studs on your starting lineup and... Read More

Week 11 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Below are RotoBaller's Week 11 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 11 of the NFL and fantasy football season. In case you missed it, this is our seventh year now writing this weekly column. Our weekly tiered defense rankings are a guide to making waiver... Read More

Week 11 Kicker Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

It's Week 11, and we're getting closer and closer to the fantasy football playoffs. The consistent options are getting more and more clear, especially at the kicking position. We're also going to start dealing with everyone's favorite factor, which is inclement weather, especially up north. The margin for error in these weeks is slim, and... Read More

Week 10 Surprises? We Must Overreact Immediately!

In Week 10, Christian Kirk, Darius Slayton, Tyreek Hill, and Michael Thomas all had beatable cornerback matchups and finished as the top-four wide receivers in PPR scoring. At running back, Derrick Henry exploited a poor Chiefs run defense and rumbled for 188 yards and two touchdowns, finishing as the No. 1 running back on the week. Ronald... Read More

The Cut List - Players on the Chopping Block (Week 11)

This is your weekly list of players to drop. I will do my best to limit this list to injured players and players you might consider holding. If you roster pure handcuffs or backups, obviously you can let them go at any time. The players on this list will, ideally, be guys that aren't clearly... Read More

Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 11

The regular season continues to advance at a relentless pace as we have now entered the planning process for Week 11. Some of you are in the favorable position of only needing slight modifications to rosters that are destined to enter the fantasy playoffs. But many of you are still searching for the most effective... Read More

Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 11

Did you survive the terrible, no good, very bad six-team bye week? If so, welcome to the other side, when roster building gets slightly easier going forward. If not, I'm sorry, but you still have time to get things back on the right path. Let's talk about some wide receivers who might be able to... Read More

Week 11 Tight End Waiver Wire Picks and Streamers

If your fantasy football squad is still in the playoff hunt heading into Week 11, then congratulations on not being the Pat Shurmur or Freddie Kitchens of your league. Fantasy football players will have to live without New York’s Evan Engram, Green Bay’s Jimmy Graham and Tennessee’s Jonnu Smith as their teams are on bye.... Read More

Quarterback Waiver Wire Pickups and Streamers - Week 11

We've got plenty to unpack at the quarterback position following an exciting Week 10. While no major injuries occurred in game, the revelation of Matthew Stafford's back injury was quite a surprise and left some owners scrambling just before lineups locked. So the year of the backup continued this week, as 16 of the 32... Read More

Waiver Wire Express - Week 11 Lightning Round

With 10 weeks down and only a few more weeks of the fantasy regular season to go, your vision for the playoffs should be coming into focus. The Giants, Packers, Seahawks and Titans are on bye -- with the Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs and Vikings in Week 12 to round out the weekly vacations. To help... Read More

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups List

Back by popular demand in 2019... RotoBaller has brought back for the NFL season our Ultimate 2019 Fantasy Football Sleepers and Waiver Wire Pickups List.  Be sure to also try our other lineup tools below. Using your phone? Be sure to also download our free app which includes news, notifications, injury alerts & articles.   Rankings WizardWeekly... Read More

Week 10 Start/Sit: Monday Night Football Matchups Analysis

We got a good one on Monday night folks. Both for the NFC West division and, more importantly, for fantasy. Two of the top teams in the NFL matchup at Levi's Stadium. We can finally find out if the 49ers are for real, or if they were just beating up on bad teams all season.... Read More

Week 10 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More