Week 7 Consistency Reports - Start/Sit Decisions

1 year ago by Ben Rolfe

Through six weeks we are now starting to see things settle down somewhat. We no longer have the massive movements in the tables that we have seen previously. This goes for all positions and the numbers are starting to match results. There will be names that surprise but when you go and look at the fantasy points the numbers are there. More so than at wide receiver and running back there are still some interesting names high in the rankings at quarterback and tight end. However, these are generally more variable positions. That is why both positions are often streamed on a weekly basis while running backs and wide receivers are more consistently used. However, we can still see that at every position the consistency rankings are matching the eye test in a big way.

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

A final note for this article is that although this article will be published following Thursday Night Football, the numbers from those games will not be included. I will also be unlikely to touch on those players unless they stand out as major players you should be targeting on the following week's waiver wires. Therefore, do not be surprised to not see much mention of those players below.

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Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Alex Smith	81	16.2	2.35	13.85	18.55	0.14	127.98
2	CJ Beathard	60.38	20.13	3.93	16.2	24.05	0.2	123.3
3	Patrick Mahomes	158.1	26.35	7.54	18.81	33.89	0.29	118.38
4	Philip Rivers	122.08	20.35	4.44	15.9	24.79	0.22	113.55
5	Cam Newton	113.12	22.62	5.77	16.85	28.4	0.26	111.26
6	Aaron Rodgers	136.98	22.83	6.09	16.74	28.92	0.27	108.39
7	Carson Wentz	83.48	20.87	5.17	15.7	26.04	0.25	105.07
8	Kirk Cousins	132.44	22.07	7.68	14.39	29.76	0.35	85.5
9	Matt Ryan	148.8	24.8	10.16	14.64	34.96	0.41	85.35
10	Russell Wilson	102.52	17.09	4.51	12.58	21.6	0.26	81.84
11	Andy Dalton	112.06	18.68	5.68	13	24.36	0.3	80.1
12	Joe Flacco	102.22	17.04	4.9	12.14	21.93	0.29	76.3
13	Tom Brady	117.46	19.58	6.8	12.77	26.38	0.35	75.91
14	Drew Brees	122.92	24.58	12.13	12.46	36.71	0.49	74.43
15	Andrew Luck	125.68	20.95	8.56	12.38	29.51	0.41	72.18
16	Ben Roethlisberger	127.12	21.19	8.95	12.24	30.14	0.42	71.35
17	Deshaun Watson	120.22	20.04	8.57	11.47	28.61	0.43	66.88
18	Ryan Fitzpatrick	100.44	25.11	16.39	8.72	41.5	0.65	63.59
19	Matthew Stafford	88.2	17.64	6.89	10.75	24.53	0.39	62.83
20	Jared Goff	120.22	20.04	11.08	8.95	31.12	0.55	56.26
21	Jimmy Garoppolo	46.02	15.34	5.76	9.58	21.1	0.38	56.19
22	Blake Bortles	111.8	18.63	9.36	9.27	28	0.5	55.72
23	Mitch Trubisky	108.84	21.77	14.05	7.72	35.82	0.65	55.5
24	Eli Manning	83.68	13.95	4.82	9.12	18.77	0.35	54.29
25	Baker Mayfield	52.94	13.24	4.93	8.31	18.16	0.37	48.79
26	Case Keenum	87.68	14.61	6.52	8.1	21.13	0.45	47.38
27	Dak Prescott	92.06	15.34	7.88	7.47	23.22	0.51	45.23
28	Sam Darnold	77.94	12.99	5.7	7.29	18.69	0.44	42.6
29	Derek Carr	86.92	14.49	8.15	6.34	22.64	0.56	40.23
30	Jameis Winston	37.4	18.7	17.25	1.45	35.95	0.92	38.97

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through three games from largest to smallest. Beathard remains the strangest name near the top but the situation has led to him putting up good numbers. He has two touchdowns in each of the three games he has started and has decent yardage totals in each of them. With the strength of that offensive line and the weakness of his defense, he may actually remain near the top of this list for a while. It may not make you good but Beathard could be a viable fantasy starter going forward.

Smith at number one will surprise people but he is solid. He may not be the guy you want in shallow leagues but you can do a lot worse than him in deeper formats. Beyond those two there is not much surprise in the top-20 right now.

So looking outside the top-20 we have a number of names of interest. Bortles is an issue for anyone in fantasy. He can put up great numbers from time-to-time but he is also making a ton of mistakes this year. Bortles has been majorly inconsistent this season and the Texans defense is good enough I have worries about him this week. The Bears have been really good this season at home and against a leaky New England defense, I can see a good case for starting Trubisky this week. Finally, we have Mayfield who get to travel to one of the worst defenses in the league in Tampa Bay. Mayfield is another guy that I would consider starting if I need upside this week.

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Todd Gurley	174	29	4.91	24.09	33.91	0.17	200.21
2	Saquon Barkley	157.1	26.18	6.41	19.78	32.59	0.24	133.2
3	Melvin Gordon	158.5	26.42	6.6	19.82	33.02	0.25	132.14
4	Christian McCaffrey	98.7	19.74	5.6	14.14	25.34	0.28	89.35
5	Ezekiel Elliott	122.2	20.37	6.84	13.52	27.21	0.34	80.98
6	Alvin Kamara	139	27.8	15.58	12.22	43.38	0.56	77.41
7	James White	114.2	19.03	6.96	12.07	26	0.37	71.05
8	Joe Mixon	74.5	18.63	6.74	11.89	25.36	0.36	70.12
9	James Conner	139	23.17	11.72	11.44	34.89	0.51	68.95
10	David Johnson	96.2	16.03	5.4	10.64	21.43	0.34	63.68
11	Kerryon Johnson	54.4	10.88	2.53	8.35	13.41	0.23	57.68
12	TJ Yeldon	101.2	16.87	7.28	9.58	24.15	0.43	55.93
13	Kareem Hunt	108.7	18.12	8.83	9.28	26.95	0.49	55.27
14	Alex Collins	73.8	12.3	3.93	8.37	16.23	0.32	50.8
15	Marshawn Lynch	79	13.17	4.92	8.24	18.09	0.37	48.39
16	Tevin Coleman	67.5	11.25	3.72	7.53	14.97	0.33	45.29
17	Devonta Freeman	14.1	7.05	1.34	5.71	8.39	0.19	44.04
18	Austin Ekeler	79	13.17	5.83	7.34	19	0.44	42.9
19	Matt Breida	81	13.5	6.32	7.18	19.82	0.47	42.33
20	Javorius Allen	72.6	12.1	5.09	7.01	17.19	0.42	40.88
21	Chris Thompson	62	15.5	10.12	5.38	25.62	0.65	39.23
22	Sony Michel	68.8	13.76	7.82	5.94	21.58	0.57	37.97
23	Phillip Lindsay	71.9	11.98	5.56	6.42	17.55	0.46	37.79
24	Adrian Peterson	72.5	14.5	9.03	5.47	23.53	0.62	37.77
25	Carlos Hyde	77.1	12.85	6.83	6.02	19.68	0.53	37.02
26	Lamar Miller	51	10.2	4.14	6.06	14.34	0.41	35.35
27	Ito Smith	44.8	8.96	3.09	5.87	12.05	0.35	34.92
28	Tarik Cohen	75.9	15.18	11.84	3.34	27.02	0.78	34.64
29	Nyheim Hines	78.8	13.13	8.29	4.84	21.43	0.63	33.93
30	Isaiah Crowell	85.8	14.3	11.18	3.12	25.48	0.78	32.59
31	Derrick Henry	29.7	4.95	0.89	4.06	5.84	0.18	32.43
32	Corey Clement	48.5	12.13	7.35	4.78	19.47	0.61	32.13
33	Giovani Bernard	55.3	13.83	10.74	3.09	24.56	0.78	31.63
34	Jay Ajayi	43.4	10.85	5.69	5.16	16.54	0.52	31.55
35	Bilal Powell	58.8	9.8	4.73	5.07	14.53	0.48	30.11
36	LeSean McCoy	45.8	9.16	4.16	5	13.32	0.45	29.33
37	Ronald Jones	8.7	4.35	0.78	3.57	5.13	0.18	28.68
38	Wendell Smallwood	52.7	10.54	6.23	4.31	16.77	0.59	28.38
39	Jordan Howard	51	10.2	5.82	4.38	16.02	0.57	28.08
40	Jalen Richard	59.5	9.92	5.73	4.19	15.65	0.58	27.08
41	Royce Freeman	51.3	8.55	3.96	4.59	12.51	0.46	27
42	Chris Carson	53.3	10.66	6.98	3.68	17.64	0.66	26.93
43	Kenyan Drake	68.5	11.42	8.42	3	19.84	0.74	26.9
44	Ty Montgomery	46.6	7.77	3.33	4.44	11.09	0.43	25.9
45	Theo Riddick	39.8	7.96	3.54	4.42	11.5	0.44	25.87
46	Dion Lewis	61.1	10.18	7.14	3.05	17.32	0.7	24.71
47	Dalvin Cook	29.5	9.83	7.01	2.83	16.84	0.71	23.64
48	Alfred Morris	41.4	8.28	4.67	3.61	12.95	0.56	22.96
49	Aaron Jones	32.9	8.23	4.9	3.32	13.13	0.6	22.02
50	Kyle Juszczyk	46.9	7.82	4.45	3.37	12.27	0.57	21.55

There are no real surprises in the top-15 here. Focusing on the guys just below the most interesting is Tevin Coleman. With Freeman on the injured reserve Coleman will be the lead back for the Falcons. He should have every opportunity for good weeks going forward. In addition, the #27 ranked Ito Smith should become a starter in many leagues as the backup to Coleman. Smith has three touchdowns in three weeks and appears to be getting enough carries near the goal line to have value.

The #20 ranked Allen is a weird enigma. Last week he had just one carry and three targets as he lost carries to Gus Edwards which is a major concern. At this point, it is hard to start Allen in any leagues. At #26 we have Miller who is struggling this season. Miller sits low in these rankings and faces an incredibly tough matchup this week.

I always use this spot to point out struggling backs in time shares. Howard's fumble last week in Miami may have cost him even more time to Cohen. At this stage, Howard is becoming close to unstartable in all leagues. Powell and Crowell continue to take carries away from each other. The only way to jump out is through finding the end zone and Powell has yet to do that this season. Crowell failed to hit the end zone as well last week but the good news is that he has a pattern of scoring touchdowns in odd weeks and that is exactly what Week 7 is.

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Adam Thielen	153.2	25.53	5.26	20.28	30.79	0.21	149.59
2	Geronimo Allison	59.9	14.98	2.35	12.63	17.32	0.16	110.52
3	Antonio Brown	123.8	20.63	4.88	15.75	25.52	0.24	107.8
4	Kenny Golladay	87.8	17.56	3.7	13.86	21.26	0.21	100.8
5	Julian Edelman	28.8	14.4	2.4	12	16.8	0.17	100.65
6	Davante Adams	138.7	23.12	7.38	15.74	30.5	0.32	95.51
7	DeAndre Hopkins	127	21.17	6.99	14.17	28.16	0.33	85.23
8	Tyler Lockett	90.8	15.13	3.78	11.35	18.92	0.25	75.66
9	AJ Green	112.4	18.73	6.44	12.29	25.17	0.34	73.22
10	Emmanuel Sanders	113.4	18.9	6.89	12.01	25.79	0.36	70.76
11	T.Y. Hilton	62.4	15.6	4.61	10.99	20.21	0.3	68.35
12	Julio Jones	115.8	19.3	7.74	11.56	27.04	0.4	67.4
13	Mike Evans	99.4	19.88	8.36	11.52	28.24	0.42	67.13
14	Juju Smith-Schuster	110.1	18.35	7.27	11.08	25.62	0.4	64.69
15	Michael Thomas	115.9	23.18	13.47	9.71	36.65	0.58	63.07
16	Deandre Carter	4.1	2.05	0.07	1.98	2.12	0.03	61.48
17	Robert Woods	114.8	19.13	8.74	10.4	27.87	0.46	61.04
18	Odell Beckham Jr	102.5	17.08	7.08	10.01	24.16	0.41	58.33
19	Golden Tate	95	19	9.2	9.8	28.2	0.48	58.24
20	Brandin Cooks	86.1	17.22	7.26	9.96	24.48	0.42	58.06
21	Tyreek Hill	130.4	21.73	13.06	8.68	34.79	0.6	57.91
22	Willie Snead	67.3	11.22	2.71	8.51	13.93	0.24	57.65
23	Tyler Boyd	107	17.83	8.67	9.17	26.5	0.49	54.53
24	Keenan Allen	90	15	5.81	9.19	20.81	0.39	53.73
25	DeSean Jackson	89.8	17.96	9.63	8.33	27.59	0.54	51.44
26	Alshon Jeffery	57.8	19.27	11.67	7.6	30.93	0.61	51.09
27	Paul Richardson	49.4	9.88	2.41	7.47	12.29	0.24	50.32
28	Devin Funchess	66.2	13.24	4.85	8.39	18.09	0.37	49.41
29	Allen Robinson	64.1	12.82	4.69	8.13	17.51	0.37	47.86
30	Darius Jennings	4.9	1.63	0.06	1.58	1.69	0.04	47.84
31	Chris Godwin	69.9	13.98	5.83	8.15	19.81	0.42	47.51
32	Stefon Diggs	105.8	17.63	10.73	6.9	28.37	0.61	46.6
33	Michael Crabtree	76.3	12.72	5	7.72	17.71	0.39	45.09
34	John Brown	81.8	13.63	5.94	7.69	19.58	0.44	44.91
35	Cooper Kupp	106.3	17.72	11.78	5.94	29.49	0.66	44.37
36	Keke Coutee	45.3	15.1	7.93	7.17	23.03	0.53	43.84
37	Marvin Jones	58.1	11.62	4.21	7.41	15.83	0.36	43.71
38	Jarvis Landry	76.2	12.7	5.46	7.24	18.16	0.43	42.22
39	Demaryius Thomas	79	13.17	6.13	7.04	19.3	0.47	41.44
40	Dede Westbrook	78.3	13.05	6.33	6.72	19.38	0.49	39.95
41	Taylor Gabriel	72.9	14.58	9.58	5	24.16	0.66	36.77
42	Sterling Shepard	77.1	12.85	7.39	5.46	20.24	0.58	35.18
43	Mohamed Sanu	69.9	11.65	5.78	5.87	17.43	0.5	35.14
44	Will Fuller	70.1	14.02	9.55	4.47	23.57	0.68	34.6
45	Josh Gordon	36.1	9.03	3.19	5.83	12.22	0.35	34.54
46	Cameron Meredith	26.4	8.8	3.01	5.79	11.81	0.34	34.51
47	Nelson Agholor	70.1	11.68	6.13	5.55	17.81	0.52	33.95
48	Albert Wilson	84.1	14.02	10	4.02	24.01	0.71	33.67
49	Ryan Grant	59	9.83	4.07	5.76	13.9	0.41	33.59
50	Calvin Ridley	94.2	15.7	14.3	1.4	30	0.91	32.94

As with running back we have no surprises in the top-15 at wide receiver. We can ignore DeAndre Carter as he has played just two games and from next week I will be filtering out players based on on games played now we are nearly half way through the season.

Hill had a monster week last week but he is extremely hit or miss depending on whether he finds the end zone or not. The name below him is interesting to me this week. Snead is facing his old team in the Saints, who also happen to have had struggles against wide receivers this season. All of the Ravens receivers are startable for me this week.

Stefon Diggs at #32 stands out to me. The weird thing about his numbers is that he has been extremely good on the road but really bad at home. This week, he is on the road. At #37 Jones appears to be the big loser in the Lions receiving corps. He has become the third receiver in that group behind Golladay and Tate.

In the #40s, we have Gabriel, Fuller, Wilson, Grant, and Ridley who can all have huge weeks. However, all of them are also prone to extremely low weeks. They are guys you have to just blindly trust, but whether you start them depends on how consistent you feel the rest of your lineup is or what your situation is. If you are playing someone who had a big Thursday night then you might want to risk a couple of these guys. These are also interesting DFS names in GPP.

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Zach Ertz	108	18	6.28	11.72	24.28	0.35	69.59
2	Eric Ebron	98.6	16.43	8.01	8.42	24.44	0.49	50.15
3	Kyle Rudolph	65.6	10.93	3.35	7.58	14.29	0.31	46.57
4	Travis Kelce	97.8	16.3	9.59	6.71	25.89	0.59	44.01
5	Tyler Conklin	3.3	1.65	0.07	1.58	1.72	0.04	40.15
6	Jimmy Graham	67.9	11.32	4.8	6.52	16.12	0.42	37.99
7	Hakeem Valles	3.1	1.55	0.07	1.48	1.62	0.05	35.53
8	George Kittle	75.9	12.65	7.02	5.63	19.67	0.55	35.46
9	Trey Burton	52.9	10.58	5.19	5.39	15.77	0.49	32.16
10	Rob Gronkowski	72.5	12.08	7.39	4.69	19.48	0.61	31.84
11	Jordan Reed	48.5	9.7	4.32	5.38	14.02	0.45	31.48
12	Jared Cook	84	14	11.86	2.14	25.86	0.85	30.52
13	Tyler Eifert	38.9	9.73	4.65	5.07	14.38	0.48	30.05
14	Austin Hooper	69.3	11.55	7.98	3.57	19.53	0.69	28.27
15	OJ Howard	55.4	11.08	7.48	3.6	18.56	0.67	27.5
16	Greg Olsen	14.1	7.05	2.47	4.58	9.52	0.35	27.13
17	David Njoku	57.5	9.58	5.43	4.15	15.01	0.57	26.49
18	Vance McDonald	53.4	10.68	7.57	3.11	18.25	0.71	25.76
19	Geoff Swaim	40	8	3.63	4.37	11.63	0.45	25.65
20	Benjamin Watson	35.7	7.14	3.39	3.75	10.53	0.47	22.18
21	Cameron Brate	32.8	8.2	5.73	2.47	13.93	0.7	19.93
22	Jack Doyle	17	8.5	6.36	2.14	14.86	0.75	19.85
23	Will Dissly	35.6	8.9	8.98	-0.08	17.88	1.01	17.72
24	Ricky Seals-Jones	40.2	6.7	4.26	2.44	10.96	0.64	17.23
25	Evan Engram	26.4	8.8	9.45	-0.65	18.25	1.07	16.99
26	Jesse James	50.4	8.4	8.49	-0.09	16.89	1.01	16.71
27	Neal Sterling	9	4.5	1.7	2.8	6.2	0.38	16.43
28	Mark Andrews	34.5	5.75	3.12	2.63	8.87	0.54	16.34
29	CJ Uzomah	38.1	6.35	4.16	2.19	10.51	0.65	16.04
30	Jake Butt	16.5	5.5	3.04	2.46	8.54	0.55	15.44

Among the top-15 we have two names that simply need ignoring in Conklin and Valles. The rest of the top-20 is fairly self-explanatory. I wanted to focus on Geoff Swaim who has become a big part of the Cowboys offense. He was not part of the plan last week but he may be back in it this week.

Two further names of interest are Engram and Uzomah. Engram should be back this week on Monday night. I am not sure I am risking him given that the Giants do not play until Monday night and alternatives might be short if he is suddenly inactive. Uzomah is interesting because he is becoming a bigger part of this offense and this week he gets the Chiefs who have struggled against the tight end. This game should be a shoot out and Uzomah could be a really sneaky good fantasy option this week.