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Most fantasy teams know where they stand entering week six of this condensed fantasy baseball season. Chances are that the teams floating around the bottom of the league do not have enough time to claw their way back. Never say never but, chances are it’s over for almost 50% of teams in any given league by now.
The reason that this is worth noting is that upon inspection, this week’s waiver wire is filled with more impactful pitchers than in any previous week. It’s almost as if teams have realized they don’t stand much of a chance and aren’t picking up players that otherwise would be rostered. Maybe not league winning pitchers, but there are plenty of arms that can put a contending team into first place in a hurry.
Due to the fact that there are such a plethora of intriguing and competent starters floating out there, this waiver wire article will include a lot more names than usual. Therefore, the analysis of each player will be more of a brief summation, as opposed to in-depth analysis. As always, the players will be ranked in terms of waiver wire priority.
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Pablo Lopez, Miami Marlins
38% rostered
What more does Pablo Lopez have to do to get fantasy owners to buy into his breakout campaign? Throw out the preconceived notions of how bad he has been in the past, or how bad the Marlins were supposed to be this year. 2020 is the year of Pablo. Over four games he holds a 2.42 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 24Ks in 22.1IP. His last two outings have been quality starts, and if he had been stretched out in his first two, they would have been as well.
This is a legitimate breakout, not just a hot streak. He has career highs in every major statistical category while having a .323 BABIP. His 2.24 FIP is lower than his actual ERA. He’s all but ditched the curveball, replacing it with a nasty cutter and is right at the top of the league in inducing groundballs.
There are too many pitchers to talk about this week to go too far down the Pablo Lopez rabbit hole, but he can be found on almost every week's waiver wire article and pre-season breakout article.
Elieser Hernandez, Miami Marlins
30% rostered
Whatever they’re feeding the pitchers down in Miami, it’s certainly working. Four starts, 2.29 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 3 BB, 25Ks, what else is there to say? His opponents are hitting .170 and his slider has been untouchable. The signs of a breakout were there after his first start. Hopefully, he’s still available because he really shouldn’t be at this point.
Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners
42% rostered
After five starts, the Mariners “ace” has a 3.34 ERA, .088 WHIP, and his highest K/9 (7.89) since his rookie season.
His stuff isn’t overpowering, meaning he is vulnerable to be hit around in certain outings. However, even when he does struggle, he isn’t getting shelled. In his two bad starts, he’s not given up more than three earned runs. On the other hand, he has registered quality starts twice against the Angels and in his most recent outing against the formidable Dodgers. In those three games, he allowed 12 total baserunners in 20.1 IP, with 22Ks.
He’ll go up against a tough Padres team next, but Gonzales has shown he can play against the big boys this season. The 28-year-old should definitely be more rostered. He has a very high floor, and the ceiling looks to be raising after each outing.
Matt Shoemaker, Toronto Blue Jays
18% rostered
It took two seasons, but Matt Shoemaker played in his tenth game for the Jays on Friday night. In his first nine starts, Shoemaker held opponents to a .177 AVG; that’s a franchise record. This is a team that pitchers like Rodger Clemens, Roy Halladay, and Dave Stieb have called home.
He throws his split-finger 35.8% of the time and holds opponents to a .125 AVG against it. Shoemaker has been lights out this season, except for one bad start against the Braves that really inflates his ERA. He has a 1.01 WHIP, and 25ks in 25IP after his great start in Tropicana. His next two starts come against more AL East opponents in Boston and Miami.
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers
42% rostered
Fantasy owners who had the patience to hold on to Burnes while he was briefly moved to the bullpen have been rewarded. He is now back in the rotation, taking Eric Lauer’s spot who was optioned to the alternate training site.
Burnes still has major control issues, allowing 6.00 BB/9. However, he has 29 strikeouts in 21 innings, and hopefully, now that he has more job security he should be able to settle into his role. Many of Burnes’s owners probably didn’t start him against the Twins, but he passed that test with flying colors. He carried a no-hit bid into the fifth inning, ultimately holding that powerful lineup to just two hits and one run with five Ks. The outing was completely overshadowed by Kenta Maeda of the Twins who had a no-no entering the top of the ninth.
He’ll take the mound on Sunday against a Pirates team with the second-worst batting average (.210,) and worst runs per game (3.71) in the entire Majors.
Sixto Sanchez, Miami Marlins
22% rostered
The 24th ranked prospect entering the season has been called up, stretched out, and is ready to go. In 2019, the 22-year-old cruised to a 2.53 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 19.0% K-BB in Double-A. Now the Marlins will continue their youth movement and have him start against the Nationals this weekend. Rookie pitchers don’t seem to have fared too well this season, especially in their first time out. However, it is certainly worth snagging Sanchez before anyone else, even if some elect to not start him his first time out.
Brad Keller, Kansas City Royals
43% rostered
A fastball and a slider are apparently all that’s needed to have a 0.00 ERA in 17.2 IP. That’s right, in three games Keller has 15Ks and given up no earned runs. He’s blanked the Cubs once and the Reds twice. Not only that, but he is a two-start pitcher next week. He’ll see the Cardinals on Monday and the White Sox on Saturday.
A .190 BABIP certainly helps, and his walks rate is actually a career-high (12.1 BB%). His ERA will start regressing back to his 3.48 career average, maybe even after this upcoming week. But he’s worth picking up while he has the hot hand.
Jordan Montgomery, New York Yankees
25% rostered
For a pitcher with Montgomery’s track record, and pedigree his ownership percentage surprisingly low. His second start of the season against Philly was his lone bad outing. That start really inflated his ERA, which allows him to still be available in the majority of leagues.
The lefty was cruising along against the Red Sox until a rain delay cut his start short at 3.2 IP. His Sunday start against the Mets has also been postponed. No matter the circumstances keeping Montgomery off the mound, he’ll be a great asset when he’s back on it. A 1.09 WHIP shows how in control he’s been; he’s only surrendered three walks all season. When he does end up starting again his ERA will start to decrease and his ownership percentage will start to rise.
Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox
40% rostered
Readers of this weekly waiver wire article were advised to pick up the high-end pitching prospect prior to his start against the Tigers. It was also mentioned how curious it was that Cease was recording fewer strikeouts than usual. True to form, he went out recording a quality start, striking out just 3 batters in 6.1IP.
Given the righty’s pedigree, he’s a guy who seems to have figured it out and should be on the majority of rosters. After the Tigers game, he was 4-0 with three quality starts, 4ER allowed, 16 Ks and 9 BBs.
Brandon Bielak, Houston Astros
37% rostered
The Astros rookie is absolutely getting it done. While Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier are grabbing the headlines, Bielak is just chugging along under the radar.
On one hand, the 24-year-old has a 6.33 K/9 compared to a 4.64 BB/9. He also has an unfavorable 4.53 FIP, 5.25 XFIP, and 5.58 SIERRA. On the other hand, the numbers that actually matter for fantasy purposes are a 1.69 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and in his recent start against Colorado, he recorded his first win and first quality start.
It feels like a matter of time before his .196 BABIP and 89.6% LOB catch up to him. But it’s seemed like that after his second start and because of it, many fantasy owners have left two good starts on the table.
If pitching is a need, there are worse options than picking up Bielak and hoping his next start isn’t the one where it all falls apart.
Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants
32% rostered
It’s been an up and down season so far for Cueto but he seems to be really rounding into form. In his last three starts, he has a 2-0 record and hasn’t had a WHIP above 1.00 in any outing.
The 34-year-old needed to reinvent himself as an older pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery, and he has done so successfully. He’s throwing his fastball less than ever and ditched the cutter almost entirely. Now his off-speed/breaking pitches are much more prominent. The changeup is Cueto’s second most thrown pitch, and opponents are hitting .049 against it.
Cueto has embraced the new chapter in his career and is making the most of it. Next up, Cueto will go up against the Dodgers for the third time this season after doing fairly well in his first two attempts.
Kevin Gausman, San Francisco Giants
31% rostered
The fourth overall pick in 2012 has had a great 2020 so far, as mentioned in the last waiver wire article. Essentially rostering Gausman in a categories format comes down to a team's needs. His 12.19 K/9 is seventh in the league, but his 1.29 WHIP is twelfth highest, and that’s with a career-low 1.74 BB/9. If that walk rate starts to increase then he’ll really be in trouble. His last start against the Angels was a microcosm of his season, 8Ks, a 1.88 WHIP with a 6.75 ERA.
Gausman is still more of a streamer than a permanent fixture in a fantasy rotation, and it would be pretty risky to stream him in his next start on Tuesday vs the Dodgers
Jose Quintana, Chicago Cubs
36% rostered
The eight-year veteran is on the verge of returning from the IL after having thumb surgery in July. When he does return he’ll likely take the spot of struggling Tyler Chatwood. He’s slated to throw a simulated game on Saturday although there is talk they could just call him up instead.
The lefty isn’t the absolute stud he was pegged to be early in his career but he’s still got a more distinguished track record than everyone else on this list. He owns a career 2.54 BB/9 and 7.87 K/9 although it’s been higher than that his last three seasons. In 2019, he had a 3.80 FIP.
It’s unclear how long his leash will be his first time out, or even how effective he’ll be. But once he’s back in the Bigs he’ll be a mainstay on a fantasy roster.
Chad Kuhl, Pittsburgh Pirates
7% rostered
From last week’s waiver wire article:
“Chad Kuhl has come out the gates hot to start 2020. He did great against the Tigers in his first start of the season. Then on Friday he “Kuhled” off a little bit, but still managed to strike out six Reds, only giving up four hits and walking one. The three earned runs he gave up were all to Jesse Winker who is swinging the bat as well as anybody right now.
The 27-year-old has consistently finished with a mid 4s ERA in his first three seasons. Now it appears that the former ninth-round pick is diversifying his arsenal to try and take the leap from mediocre to above average. This season so far, he’s throwing fewer fastballs and changeups and more sliders and curveballs.”
Since then Kuhl faced the Brewers and allowed two hits, three walks, one earned run and struck out one. It wasn’t a dominant display but it came out to a 1.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP which any pitcher would happily take.
Antonio Senzatela, Colorado Rockies
36% rostered
In the week four waiver wire article it was noted that whilst Senzatela was pitching well, he likely will crash back down to earth. Nothing in his pitching profile indicates he has changed his approach, which has brought him dire results his whole career. That warning seemed to be realized after he gave up nine hits and five runs in six innings to the Diamondbacks. But then, he followed it up by absolutely dominating the Astros over eight innings.
The Venezuelan still has a 4.04 XFIP and 4.17 SIERRA, but it’s getting harder to argue with the results. His fastball velocity is up and the biggest improvement has been bringing his BB/9 down from 4.11 to 1.45. It’s still probable that the 25-year-old won’t be this good all season, he has shown that he has taken a big jump forward in 2020.
Justus Sheffield, Seattle Mariners
12% rostered
It was a rough start to the season for Sheffield but since then he looks to have steadied the ship. He easily took care of two tough lineups in Colorado and Houston, allowing ten hits and just one earned run combined. That’s an impressive run of games for any pitcher but when they have the pedigree of the 2014 first-round pick it’s especially worth taking notice.
The most likely outcome for Sheffield this season is that he’ll finish with a similar stat line to what he has now. A low 4’s ERA and just under a strikeout per inning. He’ll pitch against the underwhelming Angels next.
Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
15% rostered
Yes, Danny Duffy hasn’t been good for the last two years, but this ownership percentage is getting ridiculous. By no means should he be universally owned but it should be at least double what it is after what he has accomplished in 2020.
The 31-year-old is a proven veteran who has 28Ks and a 0.95 WHIP in 24.1IP. A 10.36 K/9 this season is a career-high as well. His fly-ball rate is a career-high 49.2%, resulting in 1.48 HR/9, which obviously isn’t great, but the main reason his ERA sits at 4.44 is that his LOB% if a woeful 61.9%. That should start to normalize soon and will make his ERA look much more desirable.
Duffy is a low-end SP4, high-end SP5 that should be able to stick on a deeper league roster once he’s acquired.
Spencer Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
18% rostered
Make no bones about it, Spencer Howard has not had a good start to his Major League career. But, remember the good ol’ days when there was so much hype around the Phillies prospect? Well, that was a mere two weeks ago. Now owners who stashed him for the first half of the season have dropped him and he is available for free of waivers.
The young righty had to deal with a tough Braves lineup in his debut, and then he suffered a blister on his hand. It makes sense that he struggled. In his most recent appearance against the Blue Jays, the former second-round pick struck out five and gave up a run in 67 pitches across 3.2 IP. The 2.45 ERA he put up in that start will be much more indicative of his future performance than his current 6.17 ERA.
Four Seamer: .313 BA vs .262 XBA
Slider: .429 BA vs .216 XBA
Changeup .417 BA vs .252 XBA
David Peterson, New York Mets
20% rostered
If Peterson continued to punish the Nationals during his last appearance he would probably be over 50% owned. Instead, he was pulled with a left shoulder injury. Although it's worth noting that he still did not give up a run and recorded the win in 5IP. At the time, Peterson said he wasn’t concerned, he was put on IL anyway and the tests came back negative. All good signs.
It makes sense that many owners didn’t hold on to the rookie. Most owners don’t have any space on their IL because there are so many injuries throughout the league. For any owners who do have an IL spot, he is worth getting now, as it sounds like he will be activated close to when he is first eligible.
Dane Dunning, Chicago White Sox
7% rostered
Dunning dueled fellow rookie and highly touted prospect Casey Mize on Wednesday. While most eyes were on the young Tiger, Dunning more than held his own.
On the surface, 3 ER in 4.1IP isn’t great. However, he struck out seven, making the Tigers swing and miss on 23.3% of his pitches. He threw five different types of pitches and finished with a .400 BABIP, and 1.99 XFIP. All those statistics simply mean that the final line for 2016 first-round pick was the worst-case scenario based on how he pitched.
The righty was optioned back to the alternate site after this outing, but that was based on the White Sox having a few off days in their upcoming schedule. According to Vinnie Duber of NBC Sports Chicago, Dunning should likely be back on the mound for the White Sox on August 30th against the Royals.
Dunning may have been lost in the shuffle for baseball fans after having Tommy John Surgery last season, but he was a highly-touted prospect who still has a lot of potential. Fantasy teams may benefit from stashing him if a roster spot is available.
Daniel Ponce de Leon, St. Louis Cardinals
3% rostered
Ponce de Leon is a poor man’s Kevin Gausman, which basically makes him homeless. He is a one-category contributor, and that category is Ks, but boy oh boy does he get a lot of them.
It’s still a small sample size right now (7.1IP,) but the righty has an 18.41 K/9 and 44.1 K%. He also has a 3.55 FIP and 3.63 SIERRA, meaning that his 6.14 ERA should come down significantly.
Unfortunately, that’s where the good news ends. A 7.36 BB/9 and 17.6 BB% are as bad as his strikeout rate is good. Another problem is that even though his strike rate is so high he doesn’t go deep enough into games, due to having such a high pitch count.
However, last season the Cardinal had a 3.70 ERA in 48.2IP and a 9.62 K/9. If he can return to that form and still maintain the elite strikeout numbers from this season, he could turn into a must-own player.
Trevor Cahill, San Francisco Giants
0% rostered
Wow, zero percent, don’t see that too often on this list. There's no sense in dwelling on such a deep league sleeper but he can provide innings for a team that needs arms. He was not very good at all for the Angels last season. However, the level of variance in his ERA over his 12-year career is pretty staggering. Perhaps this will be one of the good years for Cahill.
His home stadium is very pitcher-friendly, and he held the Angels to four hits and one run in four innings of work on Tuesday in his first start of the season. He’ll face the Diamondbacks on Sunday, so if all else fails, maybe it’s worth rolling the dice.
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