X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

DraftKings: DFS Starting Pitcher Selection Strategy

This is a free article from our MLB premium DFS strategy series. See the rest of our premium DFS strategy articles here.

For 2016, we here at Rotoballer our launching our own 12 step program. Except it’s actually 10 steps. And by steps, we actually mean articles to help you win daily fantasy baseball with a focus on mega sites FanDuel and DraftKings. Raph, Demetri, Chris, and Tom have already given you some fabulous tips. Today, it’s Nedimyer’s turn to flex the DFS muscle by giving some unique strategies for the wonderful two-pitcher site that is DraftKings.

Now, Tom may try to hype up the one party (pitcher) system that is FanDuel, but I say that is teetering close to communism. I prefer the two party system of DraftKings. ‘Murica. Let’s dig in.

First Thing’s First- Know The Score

It would be impossible to make any kind of informed roster decision without taking a gander at the scoring system for DraftKings. So, let’s take a gander.

Screenshot_2016-04-01-21-07-27

Looking at the above screenshot of the scoring system for pitchers, you will most likely notice several important things. Chief among those important notices remains this fact: every statistical category other than wins is weighted heavier than other DFS sites. That means that positive stats like strikeouts and innings pitched will award more points, however negative outcomes like walks or, gulp, earned runs will punish your squad a little more than other sites.

How The Scoring System Applies to Your Roster Decisions

The scoring system may not seem like much of a big deal. After all, doesn’t that mean that every DFS player is scored the same way? Well, yes and no. Technically, it is true that a pitcher who succeeds on a given day will most likely succeed across the DFS industry. However, that same pitcher may not be as dominant on DraftKings as, say, FanDuel.

It sounds simple really, but pitchers that are dominant are much more valuable than pitchers that are merely good. By granting more points for positive results and subtracting points for negative outcomes, a dominant pitcher can really separate himself from a good pitcher by racking up strikeouts, walking less batters, yielding less hits, and going the distance. The giant disparity in possible outcomes at the position means that aces are at a higher demand. As a general rule of thumb, rostering at least one ace is a sound strategy to start your DFS lineup.

The Stats That Matter, How To Find Your Starting Pitchers

As stated above and multiple times since, DraftKings is a two-pitcher site. It makes sense to roster an ace as one of your pitchers, but how do you find that second pitcher? Going ace at both the SP slots is aggressive and more commonly followed in tournaments, but for the most part novice and intermediate players should not stray too far away from the norm, especially in those 50/50s and cash games.

So, what is one way to find that hidden gem? The answer is actually quite simple. Strikeouts. In 2015, the DraftKings average for pitchers in winning lineups was 6.5 strikeouts per game. That makes sense since strikeouts are worth two points and can negate any earned run allowed. A pitcher that can compile a healthy amount of strikeouts will usually score high in DraftKings. Luckily, there’s a wonderful statistic that DFSers can utilize when evaluating their options.

It’s called K% rate. And I’m not talking about that garbage K/9 stat. The K% rate divides strikeouts per batters faced, as opposed to K/9 which uses a formula that finds more of a mean per inning. Here’s a simple scenario. Let’s say Clayton Kershaw faces four batters in an inning, striking out one, forcing two grounds outs, but one baserunner got on due to an error. In the bottom half of the inning, Madison Bumgarner gives up a hit and a walk, but forces two grounds outs and strikes out a batter. In this scenario, Kershaw and Bumgarner each have a K/9 of 9.00. However, Kershaw faced less batters and, as such, his K rate of 25.0% trumps Bumgarner’s 20.0% K rate. Furthermore, Kershaw has scored 4.45 points on DraftKings, while Bumgarner has compiled 3.05 DK points.

Last season, the top five finishers in K% rate were, in order, Kershaw (33.8%), Chris Sale (32.1%), Max Scherzer (30.7%), Carlos Carrasco (29.6%), and Chris Archer (29.0%). It’s no coincidence that these were among the top overall performers on DraftKings as well. The one exception being Archer, who lost out on some points by being on a sub-par team and not getting extra points in the win category.

Budgeting For Pitchers

Tom gave some great advice for his FanDuel pitcher strategy piece that I am going to reiterate. Pay up for the pitcher you think will have the best day. DK may feature the two pitcher system, but the scoring system does not allow players to take chances, especially in cash games. With all the negative points being shelled out to starting pitchers, your roster is one bad inning away from being decimated. So don’t be afraid to pay up.

dkpitchers

Pitchers overwhelmingly score the most on DraftKings. In terms of cash games and 50/50s, I highly recommend paying up for at least one ace that has a solid matchup. Do not worry about what the field is doing; most likely, they’ll be paying up for that same stud. For a second pitcher in cash games, target a mid-value pitcher facing a team that has a high K% Rate against that pitcher's arm. Or the Phillies. They’re fun to pick on.

In terms of high to select pitchers for a tournament, honestly you can go one of several directions. Try to find a pitchers that a lot of players aren’t high on. Going against the field is always a smart strategy. Think Kershaw is due for an 18 strikeout shutout? Good. Roster him. Just be ready to spend as little as possible for a pitcher that absolutely no one likes, but will be facing a team that tends to strikeout a lot in certain situations. Going against the field is the key for tournaments. Just don’t roster two pitchers that are going against each other, especially in smaller leagues. In order to win, you need every point you can get. Rostering two pitchers going up against each other, though contrarian, will only give you at most four points from one pitcher for a win. This isn’t soccer. There inevitably has to be a loser. Now, go win some tournaments with your stud pitchers.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

 

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF