RADIO
Michael Grennell reviews five star players coming off disappointing seasons that should rebound in 2021. These players could be undervalued draft targets for fantasy baseball.
Happy Holidays everyone! Needless to say, 2020 was quite the crazy year — for any number of reasons. There was a lot that many of us will want to forget, and for quite a few baseball players, the 2020 season is one they'll want everyone to pretend never happened.
But hey, it's almost 2021. As a wise warthog in a Disney movie once said, "You gotta put your behind in your past." Let's move on from the old and embrace the new, as we take a look at some guys who should return to form next year.
It's one last gift for the holidays, so it's time to unwrap this list of players to watch in 2021.
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Jose Altuve (2B, HOU)
2019 stats: .298/.353/.550, .303 BABIP
2020 stats: .219/.286/.344, .250 BABIP
Putting aside all of the Houston controversy, there's no denying that Altuve has consistently been one of the top fantasy second basemen for years now. With a high average and a solid power-speed combo, Altuve has been a guy every fantasy manager would like to slot into their lineup on a daily basis. But as with many players, 2020 was not kind to Altuve. He posted career lows in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, and extrapolating his numbers over a full season he would've finished with about 15 homers and less than 10 steals. Altuve also recorded a career-high 18.6 percent strikeout rate, and a career-high 9.8 percent swinging strike rates.
Now the obvious suspicion that many baseball fans will have of course is that Altuve's decline occurred as a result of the uncovering of the Astros' cheating. And it is entirely possible that that could have had an effect on his increased strikeout rates. But what may have been the more significant contributing factor to Altuve's 2020 performance was his .250 BABIP. Not only was it 84 points lower than his career mark, it was the first time in his major league career that he posted a BABIP below .300.
As will be the theme with many of the guys on this list, it will be more difficult than usual to gauge performances from this year and predict how they do in 2021. The cheating scandal adds another layer of complexity in analysis. It's hard to say if the steals will come back for Altuve in any meaningful way, and managers should consider his 31 home runs in 2019 most likely a fluke. But what managers should feel confident about is Altuve's average should almost certainly rebound, and he should still hit around 20 homers. Altuve might not be the fantasy star he once was, but he is certainly better than what managers saw in 2020.
Christian Yelich (OF, MIL)
2019 stats: .329/.429/.671, .355 BABIP
2020 stats: .205/.356/.430, .259 BABIP
Talk about a year to forget. After winning the NL MVP in 2018 and finishing second in the MVP race in 2019, Yelich didn't get a single MVP vote in 2020 as he posted a career-low .205 average and .356 on-base percentage. He posted a career-high 30.8 percent strikeout rate — nearly 10 percent higher than his career rate — his swinging strike rate was the second-highest of his career at 10.9 percent, and his contact rate was a career-worst 68.2 percent.
Much like with Altuve, Yelich posted an abysmal BABIP this season. His .259 BABIP was the first time in his career that he recorded a mark below .330, and it was 95 points below his career mark. So that right there is enough to suggest a bounce-back performance in 2021. And while the average and on-base percentage weren't there, Yelich still had some bright spots. He posted a career-high 18.6 percent walk rate, and he posted his third straight season with a HR/FB rate over 30 percent and a barrel percentage over 12 percent.
Looking further at Statcast numbers, Yelich had a career-high 94.0 mph average exit velocity, and his 7.1 degree launch angle was the second-highest of his career. So the power was still there even though the average wasn't. Yelich is still one of the best hitters in the game, and his off-year in 2020 could pay dividends for fantasy managers in 2021 who can get him a little later than he normally would go.
Kris Bryant (3B, CHC)
2019 stats: .282/.382/.521, .331 BABIP
2020 stats: ..206/.293/.351, .264 BABIP
So I'm sure by now you can kind of see a pattern with this list. Bryant posted career-lows across the board in average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. His 27.2 percent strikeout rate was the highest mark since his rookie season, and his 8.2 percent walk rate was the lowest of his career. He posted a career-low 5.5 percent barrel rate. It wasn't pretty in 2020 for Bryant.
Now let's look at the positives. Continuing the trend of career-worst BABIPs, Bryant's .264 BABIP this year was his first sub-.300 mark of his career, and it was 75 points lower than his career average. Yes, Bryant did see a dip in his hard-hit percentage, but his 31.9 percent rate in 2020 was only a few points below his 2019 (33.8%) and 2018 marks (33.3%). His 84.1 percent zone-contact rate was the third-highest of his career, and his 20.7 degree launch angle marked his fourth straight season of improvement and matched his career-high set during his 2016 MVP campaign. Take into account injuries were an issue for him this year that likely contributed to his down year, and Bryant should be poised to rebound in 2021.
Tommy Pham (OF, SD)
2019 stats: .273/.369/.450, .316 BABIP
2020 stats: .211/.312/.312, .253 BABIP
Stop me if you've heard this before: career-low batting average (.211), career-low OPS (.624). Pham had a career-low 2.4 degree launch angle, which translated into a career-high 62.2 percent ground ball rate — the fifth-highest rate in baseball among players with at least 100 plate appearances. And his 7.3 percent barrel rate was the second-lowest of his career.
But here's where things are different from the other guys we've looked at so far. Pham was one of the players who was confirmed to have contracted COVID-19 during the season — knocking him out for just over a month. Granted, this came towards the end of the season, so COVID-19 can't excuse his poor start to the year. But it didn't help him either to end the year. And there were some positive trends in his numbers in 2020. He had a career-high 50 percent hard-hit rate, his 92.8 mph average exit velocity was the second-highest of his career, and good old BABIP once again suggests a positive trend upwards in 2021. His .253 BABIP was the first time he had a sub-.300 performance, and it was 81 points lower than his career average. We'll have to see how he bounces back long-term from COVID, but if he is completely healthy with no lingering side-effects, he should be back to a 20-homer, 20-steal guy in 2021.
Edwin Encarnacion (UT, FA)
2019 stats: .244/.344/.531, .239 BABIP
2020 stats: .157/.250/.377, .156 BABIP
OK, let me start off by saying Encarnacion is the longest shot on this list for a bounce-back next year. He was 37 in 2020. He posted a career-low 68.2 percent contact rate and a career-worst 14.5 percent swinging strike rate. He had a career-worst .627 OPS and a career-high 29.8 percent strikeout rate. His .156 BABIP is barely below his .157 average. All signs point to Encarnacion being washed up. And it's very likely he is done after eight straight seasons of 30+ home runs.
Maybe I'm crazy, but if Encarnacion lands on a team I think he has one more good year in him.
Check out his triple slash line over 44 games in 2020:
- .157/.250/.377
Now look at these numbers:
- .244/.311/.459
- .215/.342/.411
- .210/.286/.413
- .242/.365/.490
Those are Encarnacion's slash lines through his first 44 games from 2016 through 2019. This is where he ended each season:
- 2016: .263/.357/.529
- 2017: .258/.377/.504
- 2018: .246/.336/.474
- 2019: .244/.344/.531
Encarnacion has consistently been a slow starter to the season. He had a 22.8 degree launch angle last year (slightly higher than his 22.2 degree launch angle in 2019). He had a career high 13.1 barrel percentage. His HR/FB rate was 18.2 percent — his seventh straight season with a rate over 18 percent.
Again, this is gonna be my biggest stretch on this list. And if he doesn't sign this will all be moot. But I think if he signs somewhere he could have one more 30-homer season left in the tank. And as a late round flyer, why not take the chance on him?
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