Power Risers/Fallers for Week 20: Buy or Sell?

Published 10 hours ago by Brady Grove - RotoBaller

Welcome to Week 20 of the 2018 MLB season and a new week of our investigation into the steepest power trenders in baseball, whether those trends are positive or negative. As the season has blown by into August and the MLB trade deadline has passed, the window of opportunity to snag a surging slugger or to rid yourself of a down-and-out disappointment grows shorter with every plate appearance. Most Fantasy Baseball Leagues have already had their trade deadlines come and go, and the only decisions left for Managers to make in terms of personnel are whether players are worth the AB they are receiving and whether a player is worth adding for a postseason push. Getting the jump on identifying the catalytic variables and telling trends in these player's recent offensive performances could be the key factor in the management of your roster in the season's final months. To do this, we'll be taking a look at the batting metrics that influence a hitter's power (Fly-Ball%, Pull%, Hard-Hit%, Exit Velocity) and determining whether you should buy or sell respectively on these surgers and strugglers. Since it's always best to wait and trudge through with the power play from players like Bryce Harper, Charlie Blackmon, Joey Votto, and Mookie Betts, we are going to be focusing on players who have seen a change in their power profile due to a change in batting metrics and has either warranted greater attention for waiver wire pickups or for a potential trade to cash in on what's left before it's too late.  

Power Risers

Ronald Acuna Jr. - (OF, ATL) The heat levels go: mild, hot, blazing, ghost pepper, and then somewhere a little further down the line is where Ronald Acuna sits with his recent offensive performances. Within a span of just the last seven games he has clobbered seven HR with an amazing slash line of .483/.531/1.276 to give him 19 HR and a .992 OPS in 264 total AB this season. Though he strikes out a lot at 28%, that is about all that there is to complain about. He has powered his way to a .288 ISO this year off of 44.6% hard contact and just 12.5% soft contact on batted balls, and gave himself further opportunity to send pitches yard by hitting 40.8% fly balls with a pull rate of 45.1%. Overall, with a 90.8 mph average exit velocity and average HR distance of 413, Acuna's HR/FB ratio is an impressive 25.3%. Ronald Acuna is just 20 years old and was baseball's top prospect as recently as pre-2018. With his August hard contact rate of 54.8% translating to an ISO of .518, he jumped into the history books this week when he became one of two players in the modern era to hit three straight lead-off homers. Whether it has been the minors, majors, or professional baseball in Australia, there has yet to be a place where Acuna has failed to demolish opposing pitchers. He is going to make the race with Juan Soto for National League Rookie of the Year a photo finish, and while there still may be a few questions lingering with some of his young Atlanta teammates, consistent offensive dominance like this is starting to make Ronald Acuna look like a perennial freight train for a contending club. Freddy Galvis - (SS, SD) At 28 years old, Freddy Galvis has never even had a season with an OPS north of .690. Most of this season has been well in line with that standard, with monthly OPS between .611 and .664 from April through July. This, however, hasn't stopped him from going on a tear in August. In 46 AB this month Galvis has a .261/.320/.630 slash line and five HR, including a torrid stretch of three straight games with a dinger from August 12th through August 14th. Is this recent stretch an indicator that he could be a sleepy option for Fantasy Baseball Managers down the home stretch who need power at shortstop? Galvis sports a few underwhelming peripherals. His ISO of .129 is far from intimidating while his strikeout rate of 22.5% is higher than ideal. Also, his GB/FB ratio leaves a little to be desired at 1.24, and his average exit velocity (88.4 mph) and HR distance (390) sit below the league norm and aren't giving him that much-needed assist in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. He, however, counters with several equally positive signs. His walk rate of 7.4% is the highest of his career, and though his pull rate is 38.9%, he has strung together two consecutively better months in that department with July and August rates of 40% and 47.1%. His worst two months in terms of GB/FB tendencies came in the first two months of the season, and since then he has mightily improved and is even hitting fly balls at a 42.4% clip this month. He has produced solid cumulative hard and soft contact rates on batted balls this season of 38.9% and 13.9% though, confusingly, he has produced his lowest hard contact rate of the year (32.4%) in this, his breakout month of August in which he produced his highest ISO of the year (.370) by a substantial margin of .226. Part of this mystery can likely be explained by the fact that Galvis has improved his pull rate so substantially and the fact that he has been able to produce most of his hard and medium contact on batted balls that turned into line drives and fly balls. The Padres have put Freddy Galvis on the field for every single game of the year so far, so it's fair to say that he'll receive ample opportunity moving forward. Though his home field and career history leave some lingering doubts, he could be a Marcus Semien type fill-in shortstop for Fantasy Baseball Managers willing to sacrifice well-roundness and consistency for a sneaky power/speed combo. Marwin Gonzalez - (SS/1B/2B/OF, HOU) With the exception of a good sum of work in June, Marwin Gonzalez has been a far cry from the 23 HR, .907 OPS utility man that was the x-factor on a World Series squad and finished 19th in MVP voting. However, things have been looking up in a big way for Gonzalez since the beginning of August, and he has hit four dingers with a slash line of .349/.417/.674 in 46 AB during that stretch. Some of his peripherals have remained rather consistent all season. His plate discipline figures and pull rate have all remained in the same neighborhood from month to month, and his cumulative walk rate, strikeout rate, and pull rate sit at 10%, 23.9%, and 43.6% respectively. Other figures have fluctuated a little more than one likes to see. His GB/FB ratio bounced around from 0.93 to all the way up to 1.87 between April through July before reaching his best mark of 0.83 so far in August off of a combined 67.7% fly balls and line drives. His batted ball contact has also been up and down. Between April through June he had produced hard contact rates between 23.5% and 45.6% as well as soft contact from 14.5% to 21.6%. This is consistent with his simultaneously fluctuating ISO that ranged between .063 and .211 in that time span. Since the start of August, he has been producing a season-best hard contact rate of 50% on batted balls, which has subsequently given him his best monthly ISO of 2018 at .326, even though his soft contact rate for the month is currently still high at 18.8%. Even with some figures that sit below league average like average exit velocity (88.3 mph) and HR distance (390 feet) Marwin Gonzalez, when at his best, is a well-rounded player capable of a 20+ seasonal HR pace from month to month. Though consistency hasn't been his staple this season, that blow is cushioned a bit by the quadruple-position eligibility and the fact that he goes to work for one of baseball's most offensively devastating batting orders. Even with the regression from his 2017 season this year, his total hard contact rate for 2018 of 35.9% is a 3.2% improvement from last year while his soft contact rate of 18.3% is also a slight improvement by 0.3%, so maybe the greater aversion to grounders since the start of August will turn out to be the big difference maker. Tim Beckham - (SS/3B, BAL) Former highly touted prospect Tim Beckham, like Marwin Gonzalez, is experiencing a hangover from a breakout 2017 campaign that saw him hit 22 bombs with a .782 OPS. He played only five games in July for the bottom-dwelling Orioles, but his months of April and July were ugly. In 84 April AB he managed just one HR and a meager .509 OPS, and in 100 July AB he struck three long balls and sauntered to a .699 OPS. Though these figures are unimpressive, they show one optimistic trait: they demonstrated improvement from month to month, a theme which Beckham continued into August. This month he has already hit four homers with an OPS of .828 and an ISO of .280 off of 34.3% hard contact, all being season-bests. The numbers still support airing heavy on the side of caution when it comes to trusting Tim Beckham. This month he has also produced his highest soft contact rate of the month at a discouraging clip of 28.6%, while his cumulative soft contact on the year of 23.6% isn't a whole lot better. His walk rate (7.2%) and pull rate (43.4%) are good, and his GB/FB ratio has seen some steady improvement, but his strikeout rate is still very high at 26.6% and even with the improvement his GB/FB ratio for August has only descended as low as 1.25. Even with such a low exit velocity of 86.9 mph, he clearly possesses some raw power as evidenced by his average dinger distance of 404 feet. He does not, however, apply consistent enough high-quality contact to batted balls or present enough of a well-rounded game to Fantasy Baseball Managers as can be seen from his low BA/OBP and lack of stolen base attempts after at least grabbing six swipes last season. Infield offense can be found elsewhere at this point in the year without having to make such a roll of the proverbial dice.

Power Fallers

A.J. Pollock- (OF, ARI) Though A.J. Pollock to this point is turning in one of his best offensive campaigns yet (maybe even his best), close examination of a few of his posted figures could cause a little anxiety. Namely, several key figures have been on a steady downward trend since the start of the year. His OPS went from 1.021 in April, to .857 in a May cut short by injury, to .836 in July after missing the entirety of June. Now in August, he has struggled to a .243/.300/.270 slash and zero HR after hitting 15 homers in the previous 134 AB. This caliber of performance at the plate has carried with it the baggage of a steadily decreasing HR/FB ratio as well as ISO. Thankfully, a vast portion of his recent ugly stretch can be explained by just a couple of factors. For one, he has started off August striking out at a stratospheric 35%, which although rather concerning of a figure, it is a stark outlier in terms of Pollock's career tendencies. Also, after keeping his GB/FB ratio under control for most of the season leading up to August, this month his ratio has ballooned all the way up to 3.50 off of 60.9% grounders and just 17.4% taking flight. These figures of stark contrast to Pollock's career norm in what has otherwise been a very successful yet injury-shaken year seem to indicate that he could bounce out of this rut in the blink of an eye. His cumulative pull rate of 49.8% is fantastic, while he has produced hard contact rates between 42.3% and 52.8% every month and solid figures between 8.7% and 15.3% each month in terms of soft contact. His 20-15 power/speed potential may be hampered a bit by the fact that he has taken just one bag of his ten on the season since the start of July, but his exit velocity (90.2 mph) and average HR distance (407 feet) in hitter-friendly Chase Field bode well moving forward. If A.J. Pollock can once again limit his strikeout and ground ball frequency, he could be a lit fuse for Fantasy Baseball Managers needing a spark in the little time of regular season action remaining. Gorkys Hernandez - (OF, SF) With a .738 OPS and 13 HR in 315 AB for San Francisco, Gorkys Hernandez is certainly having the best season of his career from many perspectives at the age of 30. Excluding 2016 in which he only took 54 AB, his 2018 ISO (.171), hard contact rate (40.5%), and GB/FB ratio (1.37) are all career bests and in fact drastic improvements from past performances. Besides that, his pull rate (35.3%), strikeout rate (25.5%), and soft contact rate (19%) remain inadequately high for the hitting conditions presented by AT&T Park. Just in this season, several things have plagued Hernandez in recent months. First, his monthly soft contact has increased every month from 14.3% in April to 28.6% so far in August. His GB/FB tendencies have been erratic, including three particularly dirty months with ratios of 1.72, 2.60, and 3.00 so far in August off of 71.4% grounders. That seems to be what is mostly responsible for his current unsightly August slash of .172/.226/.207, a stretch for which he is homerless. Otherwise, Hernandez has been applying sturdy contact to batted balls. After the slow start he got off to in April, he has ranged from 36.8% to 45.3% in terms of hard contact, with a confusingly high rate of 57.1% for his struggling start to August. In addition, his heavily improved exit velocity of 88.5 mph is finally on pace with the rest of the league, while his 406-foot average distance on dingers indicate he possesses power worth of consideration. He has stepped up his power game this season in addition to grabbing five steals and has demonstrated an ability in the past to steal bases at a significantly greater frequency. Though his August soft contact rate and ground ball percentage have to decrease, and soon, for him to warrant taking a chance on. Those are two figures when combined together at high rates, do not project well for hitting balls into the stands. Odubel Herrera - (OF, PHI) Odubel Herrera has been one Philly not off to the races in the month of August. With a goose egg in the HR department and a slash of .176/.200/.235 over 34 AB, August is the lowest link in the chain of monthly OPS that have been steadily decreasing since he produced a figure of .905 in April. Several present peripherals make you want to walk on eggshells around Herrera. He has been striking out at a clip of 20.3% and seems to struggle with lowering his strikeout percentage in a month without also lowering his walk rate. This year, though his month by month figures have varied little; he sports stagnant batted ball contact figures of 24.9% hard contact, 28.6% soft contact, on 44.4% grounders. Though his pull rate (39.9%) and HR distance (398 feet) sit at league average, his exit velocity of 86.7 mph suggests that he just doesn't hit the ball very hard. Yet, through all of this Odubel Herrera has clubbed a career-high 19 HR already with a .179 ISO which is also the best of his four-year tenure. The fact is, Odubel Herrera has always hit for low hard contact and high soft contact, and despite this managed to continue to improve his HR hitting capabilities. Has hard contact rate sits extremely low at 20.7% for August. To return to hitting HR on a five to seven per month pace, that will have to come up by around 8%. Though the figures are very low when compared to other prominent players, he has demonstrated an ability to hit HR at a nice pace on hard contact rates in the high 20% range. The former All-Star doesn't steal 15+ bases anymore, so he'll have to start doing this in addition to bringing back his usual well-rounded offensive play if he isn't going to cause damage to Fantasy Baseball Managers who choose to deploy him. This might have to be a group effort to get out of a slump on offense: the Phillies have scored the second-least runs in baseball since August began. Kyle Schwarber - (OF, CHC) Kyle Schwarber is another player who has been a regressing component on a regressing unit, as the Cubs have been the seventh-worst run-scoring offense in baseball since August started, and Schwarber owns a .219/.301/.329 slash and just two HR over the last 22 games. We discussed Kyle Schwarber all the way back in Week 7, so let's see what has changed for him since then. The only month in which he has had such offensive issues has been August where he currently holds his lowest ISO figure of the season at .107, but despite this, he has been producing 40.7% hard contact and 14.8% soft contact for the month on a GB ratio of 0.45. He still strikes out a lot (though not as often as 32.1% from July) and his usually high walk rate has dropped by more than 10% over the last two months. The two more telling factors may be his diminished pull rate of 33.3% and IFFB frequency of 27.3% that has led to his lowest HR/FB rate of the year of 9.1%. If you ever need a reminder of Kyle Schwarbers Herculean strength, consult his Home Run Derby showing or feats like 470-foot bombs. Schwarber's current capabilities and limitations seem to be apparent, and with some erratic peripherals that directly impact HR hitting, some down times can be reasonably expected. Though these down times should remain infrequent. His proclivity for moon shots, the hitter-friendly confines of Wrigley Field, and his average exit velocity of 90.6 mph should be enough to power himself and partially the Cubs out of this slump soon. When the club as a whole recovers, streakiness aside, Schwarber's bat will be all the more valuable.

More Risers and Fallers

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Second-Half Successes - Hot Performances to Buy

Published 1 day ago by Brant Chesser - RotoBaller

As we enter the final seven weeks of the season, we will look at our rosters to see which players are performing at their best. With a look at the data since the All-Star break, there are several names to target. We will look to roster the players that best fit our plans and categorical needs down the stretch. Since the break, Matt Carpenter, Rougned Odor, Christian Yelich, and Ronald Acuna are in the top ten in offensive WAR. Here are some other names to consider to help our fantasy teams move up categories in our fantasy baseball leagues.  

Hot Performances to Buy

Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics As part of a top-five offense since the All-Stark break, Matt Chapman (3B, OAK) joins Khris Davis in the top ten in offensive WAR. Since the break, Chapman is hitting .361 with 6 HR, 12 RBI, and 20 R. Chapman's 95.9 MPH on FB/LD ranks 31st in MLB, and increasing his hard-contact rate from 36% in 2017 to 45% in 2018 is a positive sign. While he carried a 40.0 GB%  in the first half, he has a 52.0 FB% in 37 at-bats in August with a 48% hard-contact rate. With his hard contact and exit velocity, he has the power to match Steamer's projection of seven home runs over the last seven weeks. Against southpaws, he's hitting more ground balls (43%) while taking fewer balls to the opposite field (19%). Chapman has four home runs and a .841 OPS vs. LHP in 114 at-bats. He has hit the ball in the air more often (41.0 FB%) against RHP with fewer infield fly balls, and he uses more of the field (27.8 Oppo%). He has a .870 OPS with 12 home runs versus RHP. Even though he has a .332 BABIP, his 22.3 LD% helps his cause. His 10.1 BB% has remained steady, and reducing his K% from 28.2 in 2017 to 23.1 in 2018. He has fewer swings and misses against sliders (10.5 SwStr%) in 2018, and he can finish with a batting average that won't damage a fantasy roster. Chapman has the power for a home run per week to finish the season, and he could finish with even more if he can improve his 39.4 FB%. If our teams need some home runs and counting stats, Chapman can provide both.   Mallex Smith, Tampa Bay Rays Don't look now, but Mallex Smith (OF, TAM) has improved his plate discipline in the second half. His 14.5 BB% and 14.5 K% have contributed to a .451 OBP since the All-Star break. Getting on base more often can give him more chances to steal bases. As the season winds down, fantasy owners are targeting categories to gain ground in the standings. Mallex Smith has the speed to make up some ground in the stolen base category. In the second half, Smith has stolen nine bases with 15 R and 7 RBI while hitting .343. Not only has his plate discipline boosted his OBP, Smith has stolen seven bases in seven attempts in August. While it's a small 33 at-bat sample, the outfielder has a 22.7 BB% and 11.4 K% in August. His owns a .512 OBP for the month, and his .974 OPS in the second half is worth a look. With Tommy Pham's injury, Mallex Smith should continue to receive consistent playing time. Hitting more line drives 35% of the time has contributed to his 37% hard-contact rate and .343 batting average in the second half. Smith's 29.6 ft/sec is the twelfth-fastest in baseball, and his speed is worth targeting for making up ground in SB.   Nick Markakis, Atlanta Braves After making his first All-Star Game, Nick Markakis (OF, ATL) hasn't slowed down in the second half. While some owners may have looked to move him during July, Markakis' across-the-board production places in the top-20 of offensive WAR since the break. Hitting .342 with 4 HR, 15 RBI, and 13 R has provided good fantasy value. In CBS NL-Only leagues, the outfielder is the 18th ranked player in 2018 and the 16th ranked player over the last 21 days. He has backed his 14 HR with a 90.8 MPH exit velocity, 10.5° launch angle, and 41% hard-contact rate. He's using all fields with a 38.6 Cent% and a 28.9 Oppo%, and his 27.4 LD% is the ninth-best in the majors. Continue to monitor his power in August, as he has a 43.6 Hard%, 43.6 FB%, and two HR in 42 at-bats. With a few more fly balls, the outfielder could surpass Steamer's projection of four home runs in his remaining games. Although his .343 BABIP is higher than his .318 career-BABIP, his career-high hard-contact rate supports a batting average near .300 over the final seven weeks. Markakis has remained improved his plate discipline, as he has lowered his K% from 16.4% in 2017 to 10.8% in 2018. While he won't provide a big push in any specific category, Markakis has the profile to surpass Steamer's .279 batting average projection for the rest of the season. With a spot in the middle of an above-average offense, Markakis can provide all-around production by adding some HR, a .300 batting average, 20+ RBI, and 20+ R the rest of the 2018 season.   [jiffyNews category_include='698' headline='More 2018 MLB Advice and Analysis']

Contact Rate Risers and Fallers for Week 20: Buy or Sell?

Published 1 day ago by Elliott Baas - RotoBaller

Welcome to Contact Rate Risers and Fallers! Our premium tools allow us to get out ahead of trends in player performance, including contact rate. Every Wednesday, we'll be looking at some players that have seen an increase in contact rate and some that have seen it decline. Contact rate can foretell a player's batting average and general hitting statistics, and any drastic change could signal a shift in performance. Contact rate shifts often act as a precursor to hot streaks and slumps. Here is a breakdown of some of the biggest fantasy relevant risers and fallers in contact rate over the last seven days.

Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Premium Tool

Identifying top batting average surgers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. RotoBaller's Premium Contact Rate Risers and Fallers tool has you covered every day. As thoughtful fantasy baseball players, we won't lead you astray. This type of data is available as part of our Premium MLB Subscription. Don't settle for basic stats and surface-level advice from other sites. RotoBaller brings you advanced statistics and professional analysis that you need to win your fantasy leagues and DFS games because we're ballers just like you. We are your secret weapon!

Contact Rate Risers

Franmil Reyes (OF, SD): 86% contact rate last seven days (+22%) Franmil Reyes returned to the majors on August 5 and has clubbed three home runs since. Over the past seven days, he hit .280 with a .908 OPS and four strikeouts in 26 PA. He did all of his damage in a series at Miller Park, where he went 7-for-13 with two home runs and two doubles. He has been 0-for-13 with three strikeouts since then. Reyes’ calling card as a prospect has been power, and he followed up on a 2017 breakout with 16 home runs and a .290 ISO in 250 PA at Triple-A. He’s had a few stints in the majors this season, which have been up-and-down. The power has been there for Reyes. He has nine home runs and a .242 ISO in 140 PA, but also has a 33.6% strikeout rate and 70% contact rate. Strikeouts weren’t this big of a problem for Reyes in the minors, but major league pitching tends to be tougher to hit than minor league pitching. Reyes is selling out for power and he won’t have a high batting average with this approach. He has a .242 BA and .232 xBA, so we know what to expect from him. The Padres are going to play Wil Myers at third base in order to keep Reyes in the lineup, and he should be a fine source of power even playing in San Diego. However, he will most likely struggle to his .250. Odubel Herrera (OF, PHI): 95% contact rate last seven days (+17%) Herrera may have had a good contact rate, but it didn’t help his production. Over the last seven days, he went 3-for-21 with a .381 OPS and one strikeout. He didn’t hit the ball very hard with a 25% hard contact rate and didn’t hit it well either with a 15.8% line drive rate. The type of contact Herrera made last week was not conducive to base hits. Herrera is having his worst BA season at .269 but his best power season with a .180 ISO. He has a .306 BABIP, which is above average in most circumstances, but Herrera has a career .348 BABIP. Speedy players like Herrera often subvert norms in terms of expected batting average production. For instance, Herrera has a .237 xBA this season, which would make us think he is due for a regression from his .269 BA. However, he has a career .245 xBA and career .284 BA. Players like this can routinely outperform expected results because of their speed. Herrera makes weak contact and doesn’t hit many line drives, but he should be able to hit around .270-.280 consistently. That’s the type of player Herrera is, boring and low-ceiling, but consistently productive. Joey Wendle (2B/3B/OF, TB): 94% contact rate last seven days (+17%) Wendle has been on a tear since the beginning of July, hitting .368 with a 1.009 OPS and .208 ISO since July 1. This past week was a relative down week compared to that production, but Wendle still hit .333 with a .794 OPS and one strikeout in 20 PA. Wendle is making better contact in the second half with a 26% line drive rate and 38% hard contact rate since the All-Star break. He is riding a .357 BABIP in the second half and .355 BABIP overall this season to maintain his .294 BA. He does make contact at an 80% clip, however, his batting average is still inflated by his BABIP. Wendle has a .264 xBA, and while he probably won’t regress all the way to that, his final BA might meet in the middle around .280. He has moderate power and speed, but Wendle’s best skill will be average, and he should be a fine source for the remainder of the season. He's only 12% owned in Yahoo leagues as of writing this, so he's worth an add if you need batting average help.

Contact Rate Fallers

Teoscar Hernandez (OF, TOR): 48% contact rate last seven days (-26%) Hernandez had a rough week last week, hitting .211 with 11 strikeouts in 21 PA. Now, he also hit two homers and had a .883 OPS, but he struggled to hit the ball. Hernandez already doesn’t make a lot of contact. His 65.4% contact rate is the second lowest among qualified hitters, ahead of only Joey Gallo. He also strikes out 29.6% of the time, which is sixth highest among qualified hitters. When Hernandez does make contact he pulverizes the ball. He has a 92 MPH average exit velocity and 48.4% hard contact rate. Statcast loves Hernandez, and he has wide gaps between his actual stats and expected stats. His .564 xSLG and .367 xwOBA, in particular, suggest even more power could be coming from Hernandez. He may not be able to realize this potential while making contact so infrequently, but Hernandez is a good source of power as it stands and could be even better. As long as he strikes out this much he will struggle to improve upon his .243 BA. Manny Machado (SS/3B, LAD): 61% contact rate last seven days (-22%) Last week Machado hit just .192 with a .530 OPS and nine strikeouts in 27 PA. He’s struggled since coming to the Dodgers, hitting .255 with two home runs and a .733 OPS since the trade. His cold stretch has come with an uncharacteristic 27.4% strikeout rate, which is really eating into his batting average. He has a .349 BABIP in the second half along with a 24.6% line drive rate, but those strikeouts have been murdering his production. Whether it’s the new team, new park, new league, or just a cold streak is impossible to say, however, there isn’t much Machado owners should do about this. Just keep starting him and trust that an MVP-caliber bat will turn things around. Adam Eaton (OF, WSH): 60% contact rate last seven days (-21%) Eaton had another bad week last week, hitting just .167 with a .375 OPS and nine strikeouts. Eaton has put up a good batting average (.289) and on-base percentage (.372) when healthy, but an utter lack of power and steals has made him nigh useless in traditional 5x5 leagues. He has suffered multiple serious leg injuries over the past two seasons and his sprint speed has dropped by 1.4 Ft/s from its peak. We may never see fifteen or more steal production from Eaton again. His power has also evaporated this season and he has a .086 ISO, the lowest of his career. Eaton was never a big power hitter, but just three home runs in 225 PA is pitifully bad. His contact rate is still above average at 81.8% and his .287 xBA aligns with his .289 BA, but that looks like all you’re going to get from Eaton. Empty batting average has its place in 5x5 leagues, but these players are usually best in deeper leagues. [jiffyNews category_include='698' headline='More 2018 MLB Advice and Analysis']

2018 Prospects: Top 30 Impact Rookies for Fantasy Leagues (Week 20)

Published 1 day ago by Edward Sutelan - RotoBaller

Hello everyone, and welcome to my weekly Top-30 Fantasy Rankings for Impact Rookies! In this series, I will be going over the top prospects in baseball and discussing which ones figure to have an impact for the rest of this fantasy baseball season. Ronald Acuna cannot be stopped when leading off a ball game. He has been on a tear lately, seemingly launching home runs with ease every other game. Though he missed some time earlier this year, the former No. 1 prospect in the game has excelled in the time he’s been healthy and is making a strong case for NL Rookie of the Year despite Juan Soto’s breakout campaign. There aren’t many other prospects likely to come up with the ability to impact the game like those two, though there are a pair of prospects who if called up could be close. It’s tough to say at this point if one or both of Eloy Jimenez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are promoted, but if there were assurances, both would be one and two on this list with the latter likely taking the cake. There are plenty of other prospects plenty valuable though who could really help rosters and whose names will be worth following during the stretch playoff run.  

Top MLB Prospects - Fantasy Baseball Power Rankings

To be clear, this list is not the top 30 prospects in baseball. This is a list of the top 30 prospects who are likely going to rise to the major leagues and provide fantasy baseball value this season. The qualifications are simple: a player must not be on an active roster, they must have a clear path to the majors, and while they may have played in seasons prior to 2018, they must still have rookie eligibility. If a player is moved to the active roster of their team, they will be removed from this power rankings list and replaced.   1. Eloy Jimenez (OF, CWS, AAA) Stats: 373 PA, .330/.378/.602, 21 HR, 0 SB, 7.0% BB%, 15.3% K% ETA: September The Chicago White Sox player development director told The Chicago Tribune that Jimenez is nearing a promotion to the majors. It’s not hard to see why. Jimenez has slashed .351/.393/.672 with a ridiculously low 12.4 percent strikeout rate so far through 35 games at Triple-A. He also already has 11 home runs, one more than the 10 he hit in 53 games at Double-A earlier this year. Jimenez is one of the most talented prospects in the game and is someone who could have a massive impact on the fantasy playoff race if he is promoted in September. 2. Austin Meadows (OF, TB, AAA) Stats: 222 PA, .289/.329/.456, 5 HR, 11 SB, 5.4% BB%, 13.1% K% ETA: September The trade to Tampa Bay did Meadows’ short- and long-term fantasy value a lot of good. He appears probable to receive a lot of playing time in September and will probably begin the 2019 season as one of Tampa Bay’s starting outfielders. He has been mighty impressive since joining his new organization, already having bashed three home runs in just 11 games at Durham with a .333/.372/.718 slash line to boot. He has the power and speed to be exciting and the hit tool to offer a high floor, making him one of the more attractive fantasy prospects in the game right now. 3. Austin Riley (3B, ATL, AAA) Stats: 370 PA, .299/.370/.506, 12 HR, 1 SB, 9.2% BB%, 28.1% K% ETA: September Riley has been a bit inconsistent this August, but over the weekend, he found a hot bat. He owns a .500/.529/.813 slash line over his past four games and could be getting hot just at the right time. The Atlanta Braves could use a powerful bat at third base, and Riley has seemed the most likely candidate to fill that void for a long time now. If he can work his way to the big leagues, his power would make him worth owning in plenty of leagues even if the batting average might lag behind a bit early on. 4. Peter Alonso (1B, NYM, AAA) Stats: 490 PA, .287/.404/.567, 29 HR, 0 SB, 13.9% BB%, 22.7% K% ETA: September Alonso got off to a slow start at Triple-A, but it has not taken him too long to find his stroke. Over his past 22 games, he is slashing .356/.436/.747 with eight home runs. Though it is important to bear in mind Las Vegas is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the minors, Alonso has the track record now to back up the numbers. He has raked pretty much everywhere he has played this season, and those excellent numbers should be enough to carry him to the majors in September. If that happens, he should start semi-regularly and would be a must-own in all 12-plus-team leagues. 5. Christin Stewart (OF, DET, AAA) Stats: 452 PA, .246/.341/.462, 21 HR, 0 SB, 11.9% BB%, 20.8% K% ETA: September Everything seemed to be looking up for Stewart, but a cold August has him heading down in the rankings. He has just one home run and has slashed a mere .190/.370/.286 since August 1. Stewart has not been aided by a .250 BABIP, but the power has disappeared for him in the final month before rosters expand. He should still see the majors in September, but he will need to turn his numbers around to prove he’s worthy of starting for Detroit. If he can do that, he offers fantasy owners enough power to be worth taking a look at down the stretch. 6. Luis Urias (2B/SS, SD, AAA) Stats: 479 PA, .270/.376/.406, 8 HR, 2 SB, 12.9% BB%, 21.5% K% ETA: September There aren’t many prospects with a better hit tool than Urias, and it’s that tool that will likely carry him to a September promotion. According to The Athletic’s Dennis Lin, Urias is expected to join the next prospect on this list in San Diego before the year is over. If that is true, Urias has the chance to give fantasy owners a major boost given his bat and the potential for more power to come. 7. Francisco Mejia (C/3B, SD, AAA) Stats: 400 PA, .282/.333/.428, 9 HR, 0 SB, 5.8% BB%, 17.0% K% ETA: September The move to San Diego immensely helped Mejia’s fantasy value, given that he had no clear path to playing time at catcher in Cleveland. Now with the Padres, he should be given a longer leash with his defense since his bat is clearly the best in the system at the catching position. In September, it’s possible the Padres opt to split time between him and Austin Hedges, a defensive first catcher, to see who’s more ready to take over the starting role in 2019. Even if he’s splitting time 50/50, Mejia has a potent enough bat that he would be worth owning in all two-catcher leagues and plenty other redraft leagues. 8. Michael Kopech (SP, CWS, AAA) Stats: 120.1 IP, 3.81 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 31.0% K%, 11.6% BB%, 8.2% HR/FB ETA: September This dominant stretch from Kopech continues. In his past six starts, he has walked just four batters to accompany 50 strikeouts in 38 innings of work, all while maintaining a stellar 1.89 ERA. This has been his best stretch of baseball in his professional career and could be what buoys him to a September promotion and a few starts. He likely would have been up in the majors already had he not struggled mightily in June and early July. There are few pitchers in baseball who can match his tantalizing upside and if he gets his chance to make a couple starts in the majors, he would be an absolute must-own in plenty of redraft leagues. 9. Justus Sheffield (SP, NYY, AAA) Stats: 107.0 IP, 2.19 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 26.3% K%, 10.4% BB%, 3.3% HR/FB ETA: September Outside of Luis Severino and C.C. Sabathia, the New York Yankees have not received the quality starting pitching they likely thought they would receive this season. Sonny Gray has been bad, Masahiro Tanaka has been inconsistent and several others have not been able to adequately fill in. Sheffield, the team’s top pitching prospect, has been dominant at both Double- and Triple-A and could be in line for a September promotion. He has plenty of strikeout upside and has done a better job of late keeping the walks done. Sheffield has front-of-the-rotation upside and could provide some stability to both the Yankees’ rotation and to any fantasy owners looking for some solid pitching for the postseason. 10. Alex Verdugo (OF, LAD, AAA) Stats: 329 PA, .343/.392/.495, 9 HR, 6 SB, 7.6% BB%, 12.5% K% ETA: September Had Verdugo been traded at the deadline, he would probably the top name on this list if he was not already in the majors. He is as major-league ready as nearly anyone on this list and should probably be starting for some team right now. Alas, he plays for the Los Angeles Dodgers and their outfield depth has kept Verdugo at bay. He has the chance to steal some playing time in September and could provide value to fantasy owners even if he is not a full-time regular, but there are few players who took as big of a hit by not being traded in July as Verdugo. 11. Enyel De Los Santos (SP, PHI, AAA) Stats: 110.0 IP, 2.62 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 22.2% K%, 8.2% BB%, 10.1% HR/FB ETA: September De Los Santos was briefly called back up to the majors, made a scoreless relief appearance and then was sent back down to the minors. He has not found much success in the majors this season, though admittedly that comes in a very small sample size. He has been dominant at Triple-A, however, where he has missed plenty of bats and maintained a low ERA despite allowing probably more home runs than would be best for him. He should see a handful of starts in the majors before the year is over and with his strikeout potential, he could be worth owning in some redraft leagues as pitching depth. 12. Ryan Mountcastle (3B/OF, BAL, AAA) Stats: 338 PA, .297/.349/.484, 12 HR, 1 SB, 7.1% BB%, 17.5% K% ETA: September Mountcastle has turned in arguably his most impressive season to date. He is walking more than he ever has (7.1 percent) and has turned in a low 17.5 percent strikeout rate. Mountcastle has done all this while continuing to hit for plenty of power (.186 ISO and 12 homers). With the Baltimore Orioles looking toward the future, it could be worthwhile for them to give arguably their top prospect a look in the majors before turning him loose next season at the big-league level. His defensive home is still somewhat in question, but given the lack of depth now at third base and shortstop for Baltimore, it could remain a possibility that he starts there until the Orioles find a better long-term solution. 13. Victor Robles (OF, WAS, AAA) Stats: 137 PA, .241/.368/.295, 1 HR, 15 SB, 14.6% BB%, 13.9% K% ETA: September It’s weird to see a player like Robles receive little batted-ball luck, but that has been the case so far at Triple-A for him. He has a low .231 batting average, largely due to his .262 BABIP. He has not hit the ball with as much authority and it’s possible the elbow injury is taking its toll on him so far. Robles would probably be the one in the majors right now instead of Juan Soto had he not gotten injured earlier this season, but Robles could still see the field before the end of the campaign. If he’s able to return to even close to full form when playing, he has the power and speed combination to be a huge boost to fantasy owners. 14. Luiz Gohara (SP, ATL, AAA) Stats: 48.2 IP, 5.36 ERA, 4.81 FIP, 23.9% K%, 7.5% BB%, 16.1% HR/FB ETA: September Gohara is currently missing some time with a sore shoulder. Though it should not keep him out the rest of the season, it does not come at the best time for him since he really needed to start to show he could turn his fortunes around this season. He has been susceptible to the long ball despite missing plenty of bats. Gohara has plenty of upside given his elite swing-and-miss stuff, but he still needs to show he can harness it and miss bats in the zone. If he gets a chance to show that again in the majors, he could be at least worth taking a chance on for some teams needing strikeouts. 15. Franklin Barreto (2B/SS, OAK, AAA) Stats: 265 PA, .245/.358/.495, 13 HR, 5 SB, 13.2% BB%, 31.7% K% ETA: September Barreto had been a solid utility player for the Oakland Athletics with Chad Pinder on the disabled list, but now that Pinder is healthy, Barreto will have to wait until September (or another injury) to return to the majors. Barreto’s numbers in the majors highlighted what he can offer, but also what he still needs to improve in. Though he slugged four home runs, he struck out 39.7 percent of the time and only walked 1.6 percent of the time. He has walked more and stolen more bases in the minors and still has the appeal of a future plus power, plus speed middle-infielder, but he needs to improve his plate discipline before he’s ready to be a regular in the big leagues. If he’s able to play even semi-regularly in the majors in September though, his upside is worth taking a flier on in some leagues. 16. Nick Kingham (SP, PIT, AAA) Stats: 59.1 IP, 2.73 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 23.9% K%, 6.7% BB%, 4.8% HR/FB ETA: September Kingham has been sent back and forth between the minors and majors several times this season, but the acquisition of Chris Archer essentially sealed his fate to the minors until September. Though Kingham has looked reliable at times, he has looked shaky at others. He can miss bats, but often misses too much in the zone and can get burnt by the long ball. He should pick up a few starts in September as he looks to make an early case for the 2019 rotation though, and with his strikeout upside, he could be worth a flier in some leagues. 17. Matt Thaiss (1B, LAA, AAA) Stats: 492 PA, .281/.333/.478, 15 HR, 8 SB, 7.1% BB%, 18.7% K% ETA: September The Los Angeles Angels decided to promote Taylor Ward, who has made an absolute mockery of pitching at all levels this season. Though this does not directly affect Thaiss’ chances of a promotion, it certainly does not help. The extra competition in the majors will not make things easier on the first baseman/designated hitter. With Shohei Ohtani and Albert Pujols still eating the majority of the playing time at Thaiss’ two positions, it’s tough to see where he might play if promoted in September. Though his bat could force the issue, owners are encouraged to wait and see just how much the Angels decide to use the slugging first base prospect. 18. Kevin Newman (SS, PIT, AAA) Stats: 469 PA, .306/.352/.413, 4 HR, 28 SB, 6.2% BB%, 10.4% K% ETA: September Newman’s numbers have been very solid this season. They don’t jump off the page, but the Pittsburgh Pirates have to be satisfied with the way one of their top prospects has developed. Though Jordy Mercer remains on the team, the Pirates could opt to give the younger Newman a look at shortstop seeing as how he might be the frontrunner to start in 2019 given Mercer’s pending free agency. Should Newman see the field in September, he offers a promising hit tool and some speed to fantasy owners and could provide some middle-infield depth to teams in need of it. 19. Jesus Luzardo (SP, OAK, AAA) Stats: 101.2 IP, 2.30 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 30.3% K%, 6.2% BB%, 6.8% HR/FB ETA: September Luzardo should have no business being on this list. He began the year at Advanced Class-A after all, and probably should have ended it in Double-A. But he has dominated each level to the point where he is now at Triple-A and looks nearly MLB ready. The 20-year-old southpaw could give the Athletics a boost in their hunt for a playoff spot and could be a huge boost to fantasy owners in all leagues. The uncertainty of whether the Athletics would promote him is the reason he remains lower on this list, but if he is called up, he would immediately be one of the hottest waiver wire commodities to own. 20. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3B/OF, TOR, AAA) Stats: 327 PA, .400/.454/.681, 18 HR, 3 SB, 9.2% BB%, 9.8% K% ETA: September The numbers Guerrero has posted so far in Triple-A boggle the mind. A .395/.489/.763 slash line with four home runs, a 17 percent walk rate and 8.5 percent strikeout rate. It doesn’t get much better than that. Still, from a franchise perspective, it probably makes the most sense to keep him in Triple-A until mid-April and then gain that extra year of control over him. But Guerrero is really forcing the issue and could push for playing time in September if he continues to light up Triple-A pitching the way he has so far. 21. Forrest Whitley (SP, HOU, AAA) Stats: 21.0 IP, 4.29 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 34.1% K%, 9.1% BB%, 10.0% HR/FB ETA: September 22. Griffin Canning (SP, LAA, AA) Stats: 93.2 IP, 3.56 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 25.8% K%, 10.2% BB%, 7.6% HR/FB ETA: September 23. Drew Dosch (3B, BAL, AAA) Stats: 325 PA, .273/.335/.416, 6 HR, 1 SB, 8.0% BB%, 27.7% K% ETA: September 24. Carson Kelly (C, STL, AAA) Stats: 291 PA, .287/.378/.434, 7 HR, 0 SB, 12.4% BB%, 12.7% K% ETA: September 25. Sean Murphy (C, OAK, AA) Stats: 277 PA, .291/.359/.506, 8 HR, 3 SB, 7.6% BB%, 16.2% K% ETA: September 26. Justin Dunn (SP, NYM, AA) Stats: 114.0 IP, 2.92 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 26.8% K%, 8.2% BB%, 5.9% HR/FB ETA: September 27. Myles Straw (OF, HOU, AAA) Stats: 519 PA, .293/.381/.353, 1 HR, 58 SB, 11.8% BB%, 17.1% K% ETA: September 28. Spencer Adams (SP, CWS, AAA) Stats: 133.0 IP, 3.99 ERA, 5.09 FIP, 14.4% K%, 9.0% BB%, 10.8% HR/FB ETA: September 29. Jake Robson (OF, DET, AAA) Stats: 480 PA, .298/.387/.454, 10 HR, 15 SB, 12.3% BB%, 24.6% K% ETA: September 30. Brendan Rodgers (2B/SS, COL, AAA) Stats: 433 PA, .271/.333/.477, 17 HR, 12 SB, 6.9% BB%, 19.4% K% ETA: September  

MLB Rookie Rankings

1. Ronald Acuna (OF, ATL) 2. Juan Soto (OF, WAS) 3. Gleyber Torres (2B/SS/3B, NYY) 4. Shohei Ohtani (DH, LAA) 5. Harrison Bader (OF, STL) 6. Miguel Andujar (3B, NYY) 7. Jack Flaherty (SP, STL) 8. Walker Buehler (SP, LAD) 9. Lourdes Gurriel (SS, TOR) 10. Shane Bieber (SP, CLE) 11. Dereck Rodriguez (SP, SF) 12. Josh Hader (RP, MIL) 13. Seranthony Dominguez (RP, PHI) 14. Colin Moran (1B/3B, PIT) 15. Joey Lucchesi (SP, SD) 16. Brian Anderson (3B/OF, MIA) 17. Willie Calhoun (OF, TEX) 18. Willy Adames (SS, TB) 19. Danny Jansen (C, TOR) 20. Cedric Mullins (OF, BAL)    

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Two-Start Pitchers: What Are They Really Worth?

Published 2 months ago by Jon Denzler - RotoBaller

The idea of the “two-start pitcher” makes an appearance on most fantasy baseball podcasts, articles, sites, and newsletters as players are ranked and recommended to owners and teams.  Selecting pitchers based on match-ups, park factors, and opponents over the scoring week is a regular debate as owners plan their rosters. At the same time, other than knowing that these pitchers offer an additional start each week, often owners do not understand what these pitchers do to their line.  How do they add to subtract from ratios and counting stats? What does a bad start do to the overall line? That is where this article takes up the conversation: what exactly does a two-start pitcher do to a fantasy team?  Specifically, this piece highlights three findings that can be taken from the two weeks of data studied. While this data is only generalizable to the sample size, as pitchers change week to week, it still offers some insight into the process of selecting a starting pitching strategy.   One word before walking into this piece, no matter what lessons owners can learn, all lessons should be taken within the league context of each team. While the article will try to offer some advice to both roto and points leagues, owners are the best guides to their team and strategy. With that, onto the data.    

What to Make of Two-Start Pitchers

Before diving into the findings in this article, it is worth taking a step back to put the generic two-start pitcher in some context.  Over the course of fantasy baseball’s 10th and 11th week of games, a total of 80 pitchers were expected to make two-start pitching appearances.  These numbers slanted a bit to the previous week when 49 were on the docket, but overall, the numbers fluctuate based on plenty of variables and events.  For example, with the new allotment of off-days this season due to the CBA, some teams play only five games in a week, whereas others, already affected by weather, might play all seven days.   Of those planned two-starts, a total of 81% ended up happening as planned.  The change in schedules means that one out of every five pitchers will not make that second start.  The variance will also change week to week, but in general, all two starts will not happen for the factors listed before.  That being said, for the sake of argument, there are a total of 150 starters in the majors at any one point, each week approximately 27% will be scheduled to make two starts. The other piece to add to the data and context is that not all two-start weeks are created equal, as some weeks the starting pitcher is Corey Kluber, and some weeks they are Homer Bailey.  The variation means that even when comparing week to week, the fluctuations are apparent based on the match-ups. For the sake of the data used in this article, two full weeks of data offer a broad enough sample size to make general findings that should support the underlying baseline findings.  At the same time, not every team has a Corey Kluber in their rotation, so knowing what the average two-starter does is, in some ways, more valuable to the fantasy owner trying to figure out who to start.   Finding #1: Two-starts are at best equal to league average one-start pitchers Over the course of all 65 of the two-start weeks that occurred in weeks 10 and 11, the average pitcher worked for 11.21 innings, producing an ERA of 3.76, a WHIP of 1.24, and striking out 10.26 batters. At the same time, each pitcher only averaged 0.77 wins, meaning that the starter just won two out of every five starts over the sample size.   To factor in the variance in pitching quality, a second survey was run on the data during which the aces, or consensus top 20 starters, were removed from the data sample.   Under this sample, the following averages appeared over the same sample timeline: 11.07 innings, an ERA of 4.19, a WHIP of 1.24, and 9.59 strikeouts. Without the top pitchers, two-start weeks average close to the same number of innings but add close to a half earned run over that week.  What does stand out from the comparison is that the WHIP stays the same, but these non-aces lost close to a K a week for their owners. When the Major League average for ERA sits at 4.06 so far this season, the average two-start starter is 3.2% worse than a league average starter.  League average WHIP this season sits at 1.30 meaning that the ace-less two-starters are a bit better than that mark with their rate of 1.24. Strikeouts appear to be a bit higher, or right around average when comparing the data set to season norms. In this way, the average two-start pitcher is worse than league average regarding runs but better or average with WHIP and K numbers. Why might this be the case?  When pitching twice over the course of the week, it makes sense that one good start and one average start ould result in closer to the average mark, whereas one bad start and one good start would equalize out to at best average and at worst, a worse average over the week.  It is not uncommon for even the best starters to have a bad outing which is magnified during one week of data. An excellent example from the data was Tyler Skaggs, who against Detriot gave up five earned runs in five innings, but rebounded again the Rangers to throw six scoreless innings.  Owners would love the last start but perhaps winced when seeing the first performance. At the same time, Michael Fulmer gave up five earned in 3.1 innings, and four in six versus the Angels and Blue Jays.  These results, even if not a two-start week, would not have been excellent for most teams. What this means is that in roto leagues the two starts matter much less than in points leagues, as that one bad Kluber start equals out over the 30+ starts that he will make in a season.  In a points league or any weekly scoring league, the bad start is magnified. At the same time, if that Kluber start happens without a second start, then it hurts the overall line more than the averaging out or weakening of the gains from a two-start week.  Owners should already be looking to both match-ups when setting line-ups, but also recognize that there is no unique benefit from having two starts in a week unless innings count in match-up specific scoring. BALLER MOVE: Prioritize good one-start weeks over average two-start weeks in non-innings leagues   Finding #2: Road Pitchers are Better than Home Pitchers Perhaps the most exciting piece of insight that comes from this sample of two-start pitchers was the variance in performance if the starter in question made both of their starts at home or on the road.  In a vacuum, it would seem that the average pitcher at home would perform better than on the road, but that turns out not to be the case. Over the course of the two weeks of data collected, 14 pitchers made both of their starts at home and 19 pitchers who made both of their starts on the road. For the pitchers making both of their starts at home, the gross average pitching line for both of their starts was: 10.95 innings, 4.64 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 9.07 Ks over that time.  These numbers are much worse than league average by 0.6 earned runs and 0.5 Ks over both of those starts. Also, two-starts at home only posted 0.36 wins which is much lower than the expected total. For pitchers making both of their starts on the road, the gross numbers were: 11.54 innings, 3.57 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 10.95 Ks.  At the same time, the average road-only pitcher earned 0.84 wins over their two starts. Road only pitchers were more than an earned run better than the home-only set and lowed their WHIP by 0.3.    Why might this be the case?  Looking to the pitchers and the match-ups there is no skew concerning top pitchers in either grouping, and the parks seem to be much the same.  The road slate did feature Chris Archer and Jake Arrieta, but those two on their own, should not have affected the large sample enough. Arrieta also pitched a dud in San Francisco for his second start, hurting his case over that scoring period either way.  Even if taking these pitchers out of the equation, the road starters still were a bit better than the home-group, which is still unusual based on standard fantasy ideas of park factors. The road starts also had more starts at Coors which should affect the overall line, but not in the way that was expected   BALLER MOVE: Prioritize road-only pitchers making multiple starts in a week   Finding #3: Two-start pitchers struck out more in their second start than their first start on average   Of all the factors listed, this might be the most context-dependent observation, and something that this study will return to at a later date, but also shows a clear trend over two weeks of data. For context, in both weeks there were top starters and fill-ins, and the data trends still existed with that context.  The other reason this trend stands out is that it appears in both weeks with a noticeable gap, so not unique to one slate of starters. For week 10 starters, in their first game pitchers averaged 4.48 Ks, and in the second, 5.56 Ks.  For week 11 starters, in their first game, pitchers averaged 4.41 Ks, and in the second, 6.07 Ks. The numbers are even starker when removing the aces from the data with a week 10 jump from 4.15 to 5.24, and in week 11 the increase went from 3.96 to 5.82. Why might these numbers be the case?  Typically a second start in the week occurs on a weekend date which might account for some of the increase in Ks, as some pitchers are better during afternoon games on Sundays, or even better in Saturday night games. At the same time, with days off, there is a higher chance that two-start pitchers are on their regular schedule, and are not getting an extra day of rest in between starts which might also account for the change in numbers.    Weekend games are also more likely to see reserve hitters due to wear and tear, but should not seem to account for all the difference. The best “proof” here would be starting catchers getting a day off after a night game, and the backup catcher on most teams is mostly glove and no bat.  Attendance factors could mean there are more aggressive hitters at play, which would support more strikeouts across the board. While still a mystery this is one of the most actionable findings and should influence owners moving forward. BALLER MOVE: When in doubt, two-start pitchers are most valued for high strikeout match-ups in their second game; prioritize these match-ups. Also, one clear value to two-start performances is the gross number of Ks that they can provide for teams and owners.   Next Steps While stated in the introduction, this data should only be used to understand what happened during the 10th and 11th fantasy weeks, but this does offer a step to begin to add more context to two-starters moving forward.  The plans will be to release two additional articles to support this process. The first will dig into the pitchers highlighted here, and identify who stood out and who surprised based on match-ups. Second, the plan is to check in at least once, if not twice, over the season to see if the trends form these weeks appear to continue. While frustrating, this article leaves owners with more questions than firm answers, but if the trends in this article are accurate across multiple data sets, this could change the strategy of approaching starting pitchers based on more than just match-ups.      What can be said is that two-start pitchers might not be as valuable as they appear on the surface, and when in doubt owners should rely less on the multiple starts as opposed to the pitching pedigree itself.  This means do not shoehorn a pitcher into the line-up due to two starts as the results are not much better than an average one start, but the risk is much higher.  

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Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 15 - Minor League Stats

Published 5 months ago by Rick Lucks - RotoBaller

Once you've grown accustomed to having advanced tools to help make fantasy decisions, it can feel disorientating to be without them. Prospects are increasingly becoming a focal point in both real and fantasy baseball, but the minors simply do not have all of the data available for MLB players. For example, advanced plate discipline stats, Pitch Info, and anything Statcast-related are all currently unavailable for minor league campaigns. Does this mean we go back to looking at ERA and batting average as the only indicators of future performance? Of course not! Instead, we do our best to work with what we have. The process begins by looking at the environment. Higher levels of competition result in more accurate data, so you should start by excluding anything lower than Double-A if a player's track record allows it. Here's how to effectively use this data to give you an edge in your fantasy baseball league throughout the season.  

How to Interpret Minor League Stats

The first point to remember is that the baseline for certain predictive metrics is different on the farm. Mike Podhorzer of FanGraphs.com has an excellent article detailing the specifics. For example, Double-A hitters collectively posted a .306 BABIP last year, while their Triple-A counterparts managed a .317 figure. Both marks are significantly higher than MLB's .300 BABIP, making a performance that looks fluky actually league-average. Another common sticking point is IFFB%. Double-A batters posted a ludicrous 21.6% IFFB% on their fly balls last year, while their Triple-A counterparts were only slightly better (20.8%). This leads many fantasy owners to conclude that EVERY minor league prospect has a massive pop-up problem, but this is not the case. The stat is calculated differently on the farm, and you need to halve it to get something approaching an MLB projection. Like MLB, each minor league and ballpark also has its own unique quirks and tendencies. For example, the Pacific Coast League is a Triple-A league notorious for inflating offensive statistics. Imagine if an entire league played in Coors Field every game. That's basically the PCL. For PCL players, a batting line may look good at first glance, but really represent only an average performance. Likewise, pitchers may put up dreadful numbers even after they are ready for the Show. For instance, a certain PCL pitcher put up a 9-7 record with a 4.60 ERA in 133 IP in 2014. His K% was a robust 24.9%, but none of his other stats screamed MLB ready. However, some fantasy owners noticed that his BABIP against was a ludicrous .378, a number that would almost certainly regress in a different environment. The pitcher never ran a BABIP that high in any other minor league stop. His LOB% of 67.2% would likely climb as the BABIP dropped. We have FIP for minor leaguers, and this pitcher's was 3.70--still not great, but much better than his ERA. Despite ugly Triple-A results in 2014, this pitcher pitched in the majors for 150 innings in 2015. His 9-7 record repeated itself, but his ERA fell to 3.24, right in line with a FIP of 3.25. The K% he flashed in the PCL translated to the majors, where he posted a strong 27.5% rate. His name is Noah Syndergaard, and he definitely had owners kicking themselves by the end of 2015 for trusting minor league surface stats. Nothing changed in 2016, as Syndergaard went 14-9 with a 2.60 ERA and 29.3% K%. Injuries limited him last year, but he was still elite in his 30 1/3 IP (2.97 ERA, 1.31 FIP, 27.4% K%). If memorizing each league's tendencies is too overwhelming for you, you can look at Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) as a shortcut. This metric sets 100 as the league's average offensive output, with each number higher or lower representing a one percent difference in either direction. This means that a wRC+ of 95 is five percent worse than league average, while a mark of 110 is 10 percent better. While the formula does not directly translate to fantasy value, park and league adjustments are already included in the calculation. Another common problem with minor league statistics is sample size. It is easier to run an unsustainable BABIP or HR/FB in a small sample than a larger one. The minor leagues compound this problem by allowing a healthy player to be called up or demoted multiple times in one season, leaving us with two or more partial season samples instead of one full season of statistics. Astros shortstop Carlos Correa illustrates this, as he had a grant total of 246 PAs at Double-A and Triple-A combined before his MLB call up in 2015. Due to the small sample, Correa's BABIP was unreliable. In this situation, I like to examine the player's plate discipline numbers because they stabilize (or become predictive) more quickly. At Double-A, Correa had an 11.3% BB% against an 18.8% K%, indicating a strong knowledge of the zone. Triple-A saw his BB% drop slightly to 10.6%, but a drop in K% to 12.4% made his overall plate discipline profile stronger. Correa posted a 9.3% BB% and 18.1% K% en route to his Rookie of the Year award in 2015. Correa was even more willing to walk in 2016 (11.4% BB%), but struck out a little more often as the league adjusted to him (21.1% K%). These trends held steady last season, as Correa posted a 11% BB% and 19.1% K%. Plate discipline is harder in the majors than the minors, and we don't have the additional information provided by metrics such as O-Swing%. Still, Correa seemed to possess strong discipline in the minors and managed to take it with him as soon as he was called up to the bigs. In general, a player won't be completely overmatched in the majors if he had strong plate discipline numbers in the minors. The examples above were chosen because they now have more than one season of MLB data confirming their minor league trends, but this methodology could have helped you in 2017. For example, Rhys Hoskins combined stellar BB% marks (13.5% at Triple-A last year, 12.1% at Double-A in 2016) with sky high FB% (48.6%, 51.6%) and HR/FB (18.2%, 19.9%) rates to profile as an impact power bat with enough plate discipline to avoid hurting your batting average. Owners who took a chance on him got a .259/.396/.618 line with 18 HR in 212 PAs. By contrast, blindly believing minor league surface stats could have pointed you in Dominic Smith's direction. He slashed .330/.386/.519 with 16 HR at Triple-A Las Vegas before his MLB debut. However, Las Vegas is the Coors Field of the PCL, helping him compile a 28.3% LD% and .380 BABIP nobody could sustain in New York. He was also allergic to fly balls (26.2% FB%), making power difficult to project. He ended up slashing .198/.262/.395 with nine dingers, burning owners who counted on him for the stretch. Stealing bases is easier in the minors, but elite success rates are still something to look for when projecting fast players. Age is also a factor for minor leaguers, as a 28-year-old dominating a bunch of teenagers at Rookie ball isn't really that impressive.  

Conclusion

To conclude, the fact that we do not know a minor leaguer's average airborne exit velocity or BABIP on ground balls does not prevent us from analyzing minor league players for fantasy purposes. We have tools such as BABIP and BB% for hitters and FIP and LOB% for pitchers. We can still place these numbers into context by examining any given league's tendencies. Finding rookie breakouts before they happen is still challenging, but that's what makes it a worthy endeavor.  

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Approaching Rookies and Prospects in Redraft Leagues for Success

Published 5 months ago by Max Brill - RotoBaller

Everyone wants to be the guy to say they hopped on the bandwagon of the next up-and-comer before he comes up and breaks out. This often causes younger players to be overvalued, particularly in single-season leagues where some youngsters may not even see meaningful playing time. Identifying the rookies that will actually get playing time, though they may not have as much potential as guys in the lower minors, is a necessary skill for managers in redraft leagues. The first thing you have to do is forget that any player below Double-A exists. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Brendan Rodgers are all very interesting prospects with high upside but you’re better off letting a foolish league mate stash them until they inevitably realize that none of those guys are going to be making an impact in the majors in 2018.  

Approaching Prospects in Redraft

Players in the high minors are another story. Any blue-chip prospects in Triple-A can be stashed, but they might not make an impact in the majors right away. Whether you should be targeting these players late in the draft, scooping them up via free agency, or not touching them at all depends on whether you are playing in a H2H or Rotisserie league. In H2H leagues, the goal should not necessarily be to dominate the regular season, but to make the postseason with the best roster of any postseason team. If this means getting in as the last playoff team, so be it. In H2H leagues with a playoff at the end of the year, teams generally have a lot more leeway to stash prospects so long as their team is on track to make the playoffs. The fortunate part about playing in H2H leagues is that teams can draft guys like Nick Senzel, who probably will not begin the year in the major leagues and stash him. If your team is succeeding without Senzel in the big leagues then there is no reason to not hold him, but if your team is struggling and he’s close to being promoted, attempting to deal him to a team near the top of the standings who can afford to harbor a prospect in return for an asset that would be of more immediate help is a wise strategy. Down the stretch, stashing prospects becomes more imperative in leagues that have playoffs. Blue-chip prospects that are in Triple-A often make their debuts in the middle of the summer and these are guys that you do not want to miss out on. Stashing them a few weeks prior to their eventual call up will bolster your team down the stretch for playoff runs for a relatively cheap price. In Rotisserie leagues, stashing prospects is an entirely different ballgame. Since there is no playoffs, prospects that do not get called up until mid-August have relatively minimal impact and can be ignored for the most part; if you can afford to stash a prospect until he comes up in the last two months of the season, you probably do not need the help. On the other hand, if you scoop one of the prospects hoping to hit a home run in mid-to-late August and rocket up the standings, chances are that it’s going to be too little too late. In H2H leagues, stashing prospects is a far easier and safer game than in Roto.  

Handling Rookies

Rookies and prospects aren’t that different; the fundamental distinction between the two is that prospects are not yet in the majors and rookies are more guys who are being drafted and will be starting the season in the bigs. For example, Austin Hays is being drafted as a rookie whereas a guy like Kyle Tucker is being drafted as a prospect. Tucker has an outside shot at making an impact this season and Hays is guaranteed some playing time due to starting the year in the majors. This brings me to my next point: sometimes, opportunity is more valuable than skill. There are very few people that will tell you that Hays is a better ballplayer than Tucker, but that does not necessarily mean you should be scooping up Tucker in your redraft leagues. Guys who are guaranteed to start the year in the majors and get decent playing time like Hays, Lewis Brinson, Ronald Acuna, and Willie Calhoun, to name a few, are far better draft targets than the Vlads and Eloys of the world. So what about pitchers? In general, I like to invest in rookie pitchers that are pitching well and try to flip them near the deadline for guys who will pitch down the stretch. Yes, you might have to take a discount for them, but in H2H leagues compiling the best roster for the playoffs is your end goal. Guys like Jake Faria and Luis Castillo were far less impactful in last season’s playoffs than pitchers like Trevor Bauer, Mike Leake, and CC Sabathia. The latter names are not pretty, but pretty doesn’t win you fantasy championships (which, by the way, doesn’t stop me from drafting Kris Bryant and Kevin Kiermaier in every league of mine. If I got points for best eyes I’d have every league locked up). In Rotisserie leagues, rookie pitchers are more valuable because you can start them while they are pitching and dispose of them once the innings limit passes in favor of a wire arm. H2H leagues do not afford you this luxury, so be sure to know your league settings heading into the year so you can best strategize how to approach rookies and prospects. Being active on the waiver wire is a crucial aspect of winning a fantasy championship, and understanding how to manage rookies and prospects goes hand-in-hand with that, so stay vigilant for youngsters who can help your team throughout the season.  

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Dollar Day Auction Targets for Fantasy Baseball Drafts

Published 5 months ago by Michael Grennell - RotoBaller

The latter part of an auction draft is arguably the most fun part. All of the obvious players to own are long gone, and now owners must go searching through the coal to find the one diamond that will make the difference for their team. Owners were patting themselves on the back after finding $1 steals like Eric Thames, Yuli Gurriel, Domingo Santana and Drew Pomeranz last season, and now it's time to search for the next batch of draft day steals. None of these players should go for more than a dollar or two in auction drafts. If someone is bidding them up, it's best to let them go and look for value elsewhere. But if you can get any of them for a dollar, they should become solid contributors to a championship fantasy team.  

I'll Buy That For a Dollar!

Scott Schebler (OF, CIN) — $1 Taking over as a full time starter in 2017, Schebler had a breakout year with 30 home runs — third-most for Cincinnati — and a .791 on-base plus slugging percentage — fourth-highest on the team. His batted ball tendencies show that he was hitting more fly balls and fewer ground balls, while also hitting the ball harder than he ever had in his career. The two biggest concerns for Schebler right now are his low batting average and his lack of a consistent track record. After hitting .265 in 2016, Schebler's average dropped to .233 last season — the lowest of his professional career — although his .248 BABIP does suggest his average will trend upwards this year. At this point there is no guarantee that he will repeat his breakout performance in 2018. But if Schebler can put up similar numbers he could end up being a solid contributor at $1. German Marquez (SP, COL) — $1 Coors Field and pitchers — two things that to most fantasy owners do not mix. However, Rockies starter German Marquez is worth taking a look at late in auction drafts after he finished fifth in the NL Rookie of the Year race in 2017. Bringing with him a career 7.9 K/9 in the minors, Marquez went 11-7 last year, with a 4.39 ERA and 8.2 K/9 over 162 innings pitched. With a 21 percent strikeout rate and 14 percent strikeout to walk rate, Marquez was ranked among the top 40 qualifying starting pitchers in 2017. Obviously his 4.39 ERA as well as pitching half the time at Coors Field drops Marquez's value quite a bit. Looking at his 4.40 FIP and 4.18 xFIP doesn't provide much comfort to fantasy owners either. But for those who are looking for strikeout upside and are willing to take a hit on their ERA, Marquez will be a perfect fit for any team at a dollar. Yonder Alonso (1B, CLE) — $1 Alonso will be a perfect fit at a corner infield spot or as a first baseman for owners who want to wait to draft one. Alonso finished 2017 setting career-highs in several categories with 28 HR, 67 RBI and 72 runs scored to go along with a .266 average and an .866 OPS. While he did post a career-high 22.6 percent strikeout rate, he also posted a career-high 13.1 percent walk rate — his second time in the past three seasons with at least a 10 percent walk rate. Alonso will prove himself to be most valuable in OBP leagues, as he is a lock for at least a .300 OBP — hitting that mark in six of the past seven years. The big question will be if he can repeat the power display that he showed in 2017. His 28 HR last year matched his home run total from the previous four and a half seasons, and his 19.4 percent HR/FB rate is more than double his career rate of 9.2 percent. But while he will likely see a regression in his home run output, joining the potent Indians lineup that averaged 5.05 runs per game last year — sixth most in MLB — will likely see his runs scored and RBI totals hit career-highs in 2018.  Of the first basemen ranked around Alonso, he probably has the best chance at giving owners the most bang for their buck (maybe two). Mike Clevinger (SP/RP, CLE) — $3 Yes, he's not technically a "dollar" player, but he's close enough and he has a shot at providing a lot of value to fantasy owners this year. First things first: Indians manager Terry Francona has said that Clevinger will start the season in the rotation. So now that Clevinger has a lock on playing time at least for the start of the season, what does he bring to the table? Last season over 27 appearances and 21 starts for Cleveland, Clevinger compiled a 12-6 record with a 3.11 ERA and 10.1 K/9. Those numbers closely resemble his career line in the minors, where he has a 3.35 ERA and 8.8 K/9 over seven seasons. All those numbers look good on paper, so what's the catch? Walks. Over 17 games in 2016, Clevinger averaged 4.9 BB/9 and he followed that up by averaging 4.4 BB/9 in 2017. Among pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched last season, Clevinger's walks per nine innings rate was fifth-worst while his 12 percent walk rate was tied for third-worst. At this point though Clevinger has had less than 200 major league innings under his belt. It's not hard to believe that with a full season in Cleveland, Clevinger could improve his command, cut down on the walks and become an absolute steal in auction drafts. These are just four of the many bargain players out there in auction drafts that can benefit any team. Most dollar players will likely not contribute anything worthwhile in 2018, but those that do can end up being crucial to a team taking home a league championship, and these four guys have a good shot at being those kind of players.  

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