Second Half Breakouts for Fantasy Baseball - Andy Smith's "My Guys"

July 7, 2025

Andy's second-half fantasy baseball breakouts for 2025. These are all MLB hitters and pitchers he's trying to get on his rosters via waiver wire or trade including Eury Perez, Otto Lopez, more.

With the All-Star break just around the corner, we are officially on the verge of entering the second half of the fantasy baseball season. During the first half, we saw many players break out, including many young stars such as James Wood of the Nationals and Nick Kurtz of the Athletics.

However, in this piece, we will look at players who have yet to "truly" break out. While some of these players have found success at times during the first half or even in previous seasons, they have yet to enter the "must-start" territory in 2025.

I will highlight six players who I believe are in store to take a significant step forward in the second half. Now is the ideal time to buy low and add these players to your fantasy roster. Let's dive in!

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Ben Rice, C/1B, New York Yankees

40% Rostered

Ben Rice seemed to be on the fast track to a breakout after a big April when he launched seven home runs and held a .552 SLG. However, after a disappointing May and June when he posted a cumulative .205/.291/.307 line with just six home runs, Rice found himself on many fantasy benches and even on the wire in shallow formats.

However, his buy-low window is closing fast as the Dartmouth product could be in store for a massive second half.

Rice has been one of the biggest underachievers, according to Statcast. Rice holds a -0.061 wOBA - xwOBA and a -0.059 BA - xBA, which are the fourth- and second-lowest marks among hitters, respectively.

Through 73 games this season, Rice sits with a modest .235/.326/.466 slash line and 14 home runs. However, his Baseball Savant page is bright red. Rice has generated an elite .407 xwOBA, .291 xBA, and .5654 xSLG, all of which are well above the average marks.

In addition, he also posted an average strikeout rate and walk rate.

Even though Giancarlo Stanton has returned to action and is typically occupying the DH spot, Rice has begun to see time behind the dish in addition to first base. If his expected positive regression begins to kick in, the Yankees will not be able to keep him out of the starting nine.

The 26-year-old recently earned catcher eligibility on most formats and has the upside to be a top-12 first baseman and a borderline top-7 catcher during the second half. Sitting at the 40% roster mark, Rice is a strong waiver wire target in shallow leagues and one of my favorite buy-low players in more competitive formats.

Players with these metrics will not remain unproductive for long. If you need a corner infielder or a catcher in a deeper league, see if you can buy-low on Rice before the breakout happens.

Otto Lopez, 2B/SS, Miami Marlins

48% Rostered

Similar to Rice, Lopez's metrics suggest he can be one of the most productive hitters during the second half and appears to be a prime buy-low candidate. During the first half, Lopez missed time due to a Grade 2 ankle sprain, which limited his participation. Through his first 38 games, the infielder held a modest .218/.287/.331 line with just three home runs and three stolen bases.

However, over his last 34 games, Lopez has begun to find his footing, holding a .278/.345/.451 line with seven home runs and five stolen bases. However, I believe Lopez can reach another level.

Under the hood, the 26-year-old boasts a 95th percentile .291 xBA. He also carries a .361 xwOBA (82nd percentile) and a .481 xSLG (73rd percentile).

Last season, Lopez was a solid contributor in category leagues, hitting .270 with six home runs and 20 stolen bases. However, that season, he only generated a .394 xSLG.

Seeing him generate an elite xBA with a career-high in xSLG, Lopez could be in store for a true breakout. In addition, the infielder is still showing high-speed upside, posting an 82nd percentile spin speed.

Lopez has 20/20 potential and the upside to carry an elite batting average over the final months of the season.

Addison Barger, 3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays

45% Rostered 

While I considered including Houston's Cam Smith as my corner infielder, he has already begun to "break out" over the past month and is not as underrated as he once was. As a result, I will pivot to Addison Barger of the Toronto Blue Jays, who enjoyed a strong conclusion to the first half.

While Barger has enjoyed a strong first half, I believe he can be in store for a monster back half. Similar to Rice, the 25-year-old boasts a bright red Baseball Savant page, which is always a good sign.

The 25-year-old has posted a solid .261/.317/.506 line through the first 72 games, but his underlying numbers suggest he could be one of the top power hitters in the second half. His xBA and xSLG are both within the 93rd percentile among qualified hitters.

Additionally, he has hit the ball exceptionally hard, generating a remarkable 75.8 mph bat speed.

However, Barger is still available in 60% of all Yahoo! leagues and appears to be rounding into form as he has gone deep four times over his last 11 contests.

Fantasy managers in shallow leagues should look at the waiver wire, and if you are looking for a player to "buy high" on, Barger fits the bill. The best is yet to come for the budding 25-year-old. If these metrics begin to show up on the box score, Barger can be one of the most productive power hitters in the second half and potentially finish near the top in RBI, batting behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and the resurgent George Springer.

Adolis Garcia, OF, Texas Rangers

65% Rostered 

Unlike the first three hitters on this list, Garcia has already had a breakout campaign. In 2023, Garcia launched 39 home runs and appeared to be on the verge of becoming one of the game's next rising stars after winning the World Series that same season.

However, in 2024, Garcia took a step back, hitting just 25 home runs with a low .224 AVG. Through the first half of 2025, "El Bombi" has continued to face these struggles and appears to be a fantasy dud.

Through his first 82 games, Garcia is on pace to have an even worse season than 2024, posting an underwhelming .232/.276/.393 line with just 10 home runs. However, the 32-year-old may be one of the best options to buy low if you are falling behind in power production in your roster leagues.

In June, Garcia took a significant step forward and is emerging from his slump. As shown below, Garcia hit each pitch type much better in June and has already begun to carry that success into the opening week of July.

More importantly, Garcia is hitting the ball much harder and seeing his xSLG climb consistently each month.

His overall .465 xSLG is much higher than the .393 SLG he generated during the first half, suggesting his power surge is coming.

While his strikeout rate is hard to manage in points leagues, managers needing power production now should kick the tires on Garcia; this may be your last week to acquire a 20+ HR upside bat on the cheap. If you lost Yordan Alvarez (hand) and need a significant boost in your power production, Garcia could be the perfect fix at a reasonable price.

In his final four games before the All-Star break, Garcia launched three home runs. The power surge is coming, and this may be your final week to buy low on the slugger.

Eury Perez, SP, Miami Marlins

50% Rostered

Eury Perez appeared to be the next high-end budding ace after posting a 3.15 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP during his first 91 1/3 innings in the majors during the 2023 season. He struck out an impressive 108 batters and only allowed batters at an 8.3% rate.

However, he underwent Tommy John surgery, which kept him on the shelf during the entire 2024 season. He eventually returned to the big leagues on June 9 of this season.

Through his first four starts post-Tommy John, Perez has struggled, logging just 16 innings to the tune of a 6.19 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. During this stretch, he allowed 10 walks and only struck out 14 hitters.

However, Perez may have found his footing on July 3. In this start, Perez tossed six one-hit innings with seven strikeouts and one walk en route to picking up the victory over the Minnesota Twins. This was his first start this season, allowing just one walk and going at least five innings deep.

Then, in his next two outings, Perez logged 12 innings of one-run ball with 14 punchouts and zero walks.

He sat with a hefty ERA due to his rough start, which is likely why he remains available in several shallower formats. The former top prospect boasts a 2.37 xERA with a .181 xBA. He has generated a remarkable 31.1% hard-hit rate while generating an elite 31.5% chase rate.

His fastball has sat at 98.1 mph, a 0.6 mph jump from 2023, and has posted an elite 0.303 xwOBA with a 26.7% whiff rate. His second-most-used pitch, his slider, has generated a hefty 34.6% whiff rate with a .277 xwOBA.

Perez has the upside to be a top-20 SP going forward, and I want him on all my rosters.

Eury Perez is so back! pic.twitter.com/W0Q6ucq9iT

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) July 3, 2025

Daniel Palencia, RP, Chicago Cubs

45% Rostered

The final player who will break out in the second half is Daniel Palencia of the Chicago Cubs. Palencia has recently established himself as the Cubs closer, and he has the upside to be one of the most valuable relief pitchers down the stretch.

Since moving into the closer role on the North Side, Palencia has logged 18 1/3 innings to the tune of a stellar 0.96 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP. During this stretch, he has locked down 12 saves while losing just one game and earning a hold. He struck out 13 hitters and allowed only four walks. He has not blown a save as well.

Under the hood, he boasts a 93rd percentile xERA with a 2.5% barrel rate. Palencia has a top-5 closer upside during the second half, pitching for one of the top teams in the sport. I would feel more comfortable buying him with many closers who have a more proven track record, such as Felix Bautista, Trevor Megill, and Camilo Doval.

Do not be surprised if Palencia leads the sport in saves in the second half and carries nearly as much value as Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz.

Daniel Palencia. Dominance. 💪 pic.twitter.com/Ebees86Hoy

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 2, 2025

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