RADIO
Eric Cross discusses five risers and fallers at the second base position heading into 2025 and recommends if you should buy low, sell high, hold, or avoid in fantasy baseball leagues this offseason.
It feels like the 2024 season ended six months ago, but we're still in the early stages of the offseason. We still have around four months to opening day, but the dynasty fantasy baseball world never sleeps.
As I've said several times before, there's never a bad time to make moves to improve your team(s) for the upcoming season and beyond. Part of that is identifying player values that are shifting positively or negatively and making the determination of whether to buy, sell, hold, or avoid. That's what this series over the next several weeks is going to focus on. I'm going position by position, discussing players whose values are rising or falling right now and what we should be doing with them.
After discussing the catcher and first base positions previously, we slide over to the keystone today with several intriguing second basemen right now that are trending one way or another.
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Second Base Risers, Fallers, Buys, and Sells for Dynasty Fantasy Baseball
Kristian Campbell, Boston Red Sox
The ascension of Kristian Campbell in 2024 was truly incredible. He went from a 4th round pick in 2023 to one of the four best prospects in baseball for fantasy purposes. In 115 games across three levels, Campbell slashed a studly .330/.439/.558 with 32 doubles, 20 home runs, and 24 steals. With any major breakout such as this, one's instinct is to question the legitimacy. We can never say for sure with prospects, but Campbell's rise is one that I'm fully buying into.
Kristian Campbell DOES IT AGAIN
His second Triple-A HR and second of the night makes it 8-4 WooSox! pic.twitter.com/qwte4BHnau
— Worcester Red Sox (@WooSox) August 24, 2024
When he was drafted, Campbell was praised for his ability to make a high level of contact and steal bags, but how much power he'd ultimately have was the question. Well, Campbell answered those questions by racking up 55 extra-base hits in 115 games along with a .558 SLG and .228 ISO. In Triple-A, Campbell posted a 46.2% hard-hit rate and 81.8% contact rate. He was able to add power while still maintaining his higher contact rate and exceptional approach at the plate, including a 14.3% walk rate and 19.9% strikeout rate overall.
With his combination of contact, approach, power, and speed, Campbell has the complete package offensively and is now the #1 second base prospect in the game and inside my Top-5 overall. As I mentioned, I'm 100% buying into the breakout and Campbell is now one of the hottest commodities at this position entering 2025.
Jackson Holliday, Baltimore Orioles
We live in a "What have you done for me lately?" world and that saying gets magnified in our fantasy baseball world, especially with prospects and young players. Jackson Holliday is a perfect example of this as he's gone from a can't miss uber prospect to someone people are now questioning heading into 2025. It's funny how 208 plate appearances can change the perceived value of a player so much.
I'll be honest, my long-term outlook for Holliday has changed a bit as well, but I'm not sitting here thinking that he's not going to be a decent or better player for fantasy purposes.
While the overall .189/.255/.311 line certainly disappoints, Holliday did have an 8.2% barrel rate, 89.3 mph AVG EV, 45.1% hard-hit rate, and a 95th percentile sprint speed. However, those metrics unfortunately were accompanied by a 33.2% strikeout rate, 56.6% groundball rate, 75.3% zone contact rate, 65.9% overall contact rate, and a 13.5% SwStr rate which was considerably higher than any rate he had in the minors.
It was nice to see Holliday's power and speed metrics where they were, but he's going to need to make more consistent contact, trim the strikeout rate, and stop hitting the ball into the ground as frequently as he did in 2024. Maybe Holliday isn't going to be an early-round fantasy stud, but it's far too soon to fully jump off the bandwagon here. If the price has dipped enough in your league (to back-end Top-100 territory), I'd look to buy right now.
Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds
If you've been following my work, you're probably tired of hearing me talk about how good of a buy Matt McLain is in dynasty leagues right now. Well, buckle up because we still have four months until opening day and he's going to be a great buy all offseason thanks to a lost 2024 season keeping his price tag and perceived value in check. Thankfully, McLain's shoulder looked fine in the Arizona Fall League and he should be 100% for 2025.
All we have to go off of right now is McLain's 2023 rookie season, but it was an impressive one. In 403 plate appearances, McLain slashed .290/.357/.507 with 65 runs, 16 home runs, 50 RBI, and 14 steals. That's a 650 plate appearance pace of 105 runs, 26 home runs, 81 RBI, and 23 steals.
Matt McLain crushes one to center for a home run.
102.1 mph EV, 431 feet#ATOBTTR pic.twitter.com/c4RoKQUhTQ
— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) October 29, 2024
One area I'm expecting some slight regression in is McLain's batting average. While not terrible, his contact and strikeout rates are worse than league average. Great American Ballpark will likely provide it's usual BABIP boost, but I wouldn't be surprised if McLain is more in the .270 range moving forward. But even as a .270 hitter, McLain has the all-around profile to be a Top-50 player for fantasy thanks to his above-average power/speed blend. In 2023, McLain recorded a 10.8% barrel rate, 42.4% hard-hit rate, and 90th percentile sprint speed.
This is a potential Top-50 player that you can get for much cheaper than that right now in dynasty leagues.
Zack Gelof, Athletics
After an exciting rookie season in 2023 where he went 14/14 in 300 plate appearances, Zack Gelof took a step back in 2024. Yes, he still racked up 17 home runs and 25 steals, but that came with a .211/.270/.362 slash line and even more red flags under the hood. Gelof might look like a shiny sports car on the outside, but once you pop the hood, all you find is rusty parts and perhaps even a critter or two nesting in there.
The entire profile isn't bad though as Gelof had an 8.8% barrel rate, 89.2 mph AVG EV, 37.2% hard-hit rate, and a 86th percentile sprint speed in 2024. Those quality of contact metrics were down a bit from 2023, but Gelof will get to play in a more hitter-friendly ballpark in Sacramento over the next few seasons which helps. But even if he's able to stick in the 20-homer and 25-steal range annually, his value will continue to be limited by his poor AVG and OBP.
Contact and approach have been two major red flags for Gelof in the Majors, especially in 2024. Gelof struck out 34.4% of the time last season with a 73.5% zone and 63.6% overall contact rate. There was no unluckiness either as Gelof's xBA was even lower at .199. If he's ever going to establish himself as a Top-10 option at the second base position, Gelof is going to need to improve in these areas. For now, I'd only consider him if the price tag has dropped low enough in your dynasty league(s).
Luis Garcia Jr., Washington Nationals
After modest and/or underwhelming production in his first four seasons, Luis Garcia Jr. had the best year of his career by a country mile in 2024. In 140 games, Garcia slashed .282/.318/.444 with 58 runs, 25 doubles, 18 home runs, 70 RBI, and 22 steals. Every metric I just listed was a new career-best mark for Garcia with the exception of runs scored. Thanks to his breakout performance, Garcia is now in the Top-100 overall discussion for redraft and dynasty leagues. But should he be?
In 2024, Garcia increased his barrel rate and hard-hit rate to 8% and 41.7% respectively while also posting a career-best 89.1 mph AVG EV. He was able to increase his quality of contact while still maintaining a lower 16.3% strikeout rate and an impressive zone and overall contact rate of 86.8% and 78.7% respectively. However, Garcia remains aggressive with a 36% chase rate and 5.1% walk rate.
I'm not saying that Garcia's 2024 was entirely fluky or that he's going to experience major regression. But at the same time, I'm not expecting another step forward either. Whe he could stick as a Top-150 or so asset for dynasty moving forward, there's a better chance of his value decreasing than increasing in my eyes. If you have him and want to hold, that's fine. Selling for a TOp-100 price tag is also a viable strategy. But if you don't have him currently, buying Garcia probably won't lead to a positive ROI moving forward.
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