Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Sauceda's Slants - Five Starters To Add For Pitching-Thirsty Teams


Oh, the thrill of Monday mornings. On your train commute to work, you rush to set your lineups for the upcoming week. Unfortunately, you see your pitching staff is riddled with swiss flags and “IL” labels — a sign that the chaos of the baseball season has infected your team. You see Max Scherzer ailing with shoulder and back injuries. Do you start him? Blake Snell will undergo surgery on his left elbow, putting into question his return this season. Carlos Carrasco continues to battle leukemia. Your reinforcements are ailing — Tyler Mahle hurts his hamstring on the last pitch of his recent outing and is now on the IL. Jimmy Nelson and Luke Weaver have already been there for months.

Maybe you only face one or two of those issues. Or maybe you face a different, yet painfully similar, set of circumstances. Or maybe, like me, that perfectly describes the current state of your team. Whatever the case may be, if you’re looking for pitching — and who isn’t this time of the season? — then you’re in the right place. They won’t be able to replace any of those names mentioned above, but we’ve highlighted five interesting starting pitchers below who can help you piece things together while your bigger names heal.

These are pitchers rostered in fewer than 41% of fantasy leagues — hopefully, that means they’re available in yours. These are the five that caught my eye, sorted by roster rates. Maybe they catch yours too. (NOTE: All stats and CBS roster data are as of Sunday, 7/28/19)

Editor's Note: Get any full-season MLB Premium Pass for 50% off, with exclusive access to our season-long articles, 15 in-season lineup tools and over 200 days of expert DFS research/tools. Sign Up Now!

 

Jose Urquidy, HOU (41% owned)

It’s only been four starts for Urquidy. The Astros are among the most likely bets to add a starting pitcher this trade deadline. It’s unclear whether he’s long for the rotation this season.

Nevertheless, the early returns have been very promising — Urquidy has shown top 20% ability by both whiffs and called-strikes-plus-whiffs (CSW):

Stat Value Percentile
Whiff% 13.8% 80%
CSW% 32.4% 89%
GB+PU% 53% 70%

The stuff doesn’t jump off the page, but he does possess above-average velocity, rise and horizontal movement on his fourseam, as well as an above-average velocity gap between his fourseam and changeup. He’s used that to generate a top 15% CSW for both pitches and a top 15% whiff rate on the changeup.

Armed with a balanced arsenal throwing four pitches more than 10% of the time, his curve and slider have been quite effective at generating grounders and popups, and not too shabby by whiffs and CSW:

Fourseam Curve Slider Change
Usage 45% 16% 14% 26%
# Thrown 146 51 45 85
PERCENTILES:
ACES - - - -
Whiff% 37% 87% 67% 86%
CSW% 89% 65% 58% 85%
GB+PU% 32% 87% 80% 78%

It’s true that we don’t know how long Urquidy’s run in the rotation will last, but there’s upside here that suggests he could be a near-every week starter for your teams if he did — THE BAT, for one, sees a potential top 50 starting pitcher. Rotation casualty risk aside, there are few teams that maximize the raw ability and win opportunity of their pitchers like the Astros. You don’t often find that kind of upside available at this point in the season, making Urquidy an intriguing addition for pitching-starved teams.

 

Anthony DeSclafani, CIN (38% owned)

Possessing top 20% stuff, I highlighted “Tony Disco” as part of the ACES refresh in late May. Here are DeSclafani’s stats since then:

58.1 IP, 3.55 ERA, 24.3% K%

While his 4.00 FIP and 1.32 WHIP during that time highlight his imperfect profile — not to mention his hitter’s paradise of a ballpark — there is still value in rostering DeSclafani. He rated as 87th percentile by ACES and has been above average by both whiffs and CSW this season:

Stat Value Percentile
Whiff% 12.3% 65%
CSW% 28.3% 58%
GB+PU% 45% 26%
ACES 0.48 87%

He may not have the every-week-starter upside as Urquidy, but he’s a useful arm who can inexpensively deliver more than a strikeout per inning and palatable ratios.

 

Tyler Beede, SF (36% owned)

In early June, I was impressed by Beede’s three above-average pitches by stuff, calling him a “borderline 12-team pick up.” Since then, his results have been playable if uneven, with a 1.26 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 and 4.13 ERA driven by an obscene 1.72 HR/9.

He’s been above average by all three of whiffs, CSW and grounders-plus-popups:

Stat Value Percentile
Whiff% 12.7% 70%
CSW% 28.5% 60%
GB+PU% 51% 58%

The question remains command, something projections believe may remain an issue (4.5 to 5 projected BB/9 ROS). Even so, there’s enough here to remain interested. Pitching in baseball’s most extreme pitcher’s park is a nice start. Also, in 10 starts since returning to the rotation on 5/30, he’s reigned in his homers a bit (1.54 HR/9) and has pitched to a sub-4.00 ERA.

He’s started to throw his cutter more in July (up from 1% in June to 15% in July), a welcome shift given results on the pitch:

Fourseam Cutter Curve Slider Change
Usage 57% 6% 14% 2% 20%
# Thrown 585 64 145 23 208
PERCENTILES:
Whiff% 45% 97% 75% 37% 85%
CSW% 32% 86% 63% 95% 87%
GB+PU% 57% 73% 94% 45% 80%

It would be great to see him rely less on his fourseam, but as walks have been a bit of an issue (4.15 BB/9), he’s had to lean on it to throw strikes. That will be the thing to monitor moving forward — can he throw enough strikes to be able to get to his secondaries? Given the whiffs, stuff, park and first-round pedigree, I’m inclined to add and find out.

 

Asher Wojciechowski, BAL (26% owned)

Like DeScalafani, Wojciechowski (or "Woj," for short) plays in an awful ballpark for pitchers. The Orioles are among the worst teams in baseball — if not the worst. Before being traded to the Orioles, he pitched 84 innings of a 5.83 FIP (3.61 ERA) for the Indians AAA affiliate this season. Now 30 years old, he has just 108 major league innings to his name.

There are tons of reasons to fade Woj. But sometimes, particularly in deeper leagues, you just can’t ignore a top 5% whiff rate — small 30-inning sample be damned:

Stat Value Percentile
Whiff% 16.8% 95%
CSW% 31.1% 83%

If he qualified — a big “if,” obviously — his 31.1% strikeout rate (11.1 K/9) would rank 7th in all of baseball, sandwiched among a who's who of elite starting pitching goodness: Cole, Sale, Scherzer, Verlander, Boyd, Bieber, deGrom and … Wojciechowski? His 24.4% K-BB% would rank 9th.

With a career 5.80 ERA … what is going on here? What’s changed?

Interestingly, it’s a (somewhat) new pitch! Woj has re-introduced a tasty cutter:

While below average by velocity, his cutter is quite good by both drop (85th percentile) and horizontal movement (97th percentile), helping drive top 20% whiffs and CSW on the pitch:

Fourseam Cutter Slider Change
Usage 53% 18% 27% 2%
# Thrown 250 87 129 10
PERCENTILES:
Whiff% 85% 98% 72% 78%
CSW% 62% 81% 83% 29%
GB+PU% 69% 27% 32% 0%

To be clear, this remains a volatile situation. The Orioles will provide few chances for wins. The AL East is a bloodbath, particularly when you don’t get the luxury of facing Baltimore. The ballpark remains awful. While there are promising signs — high strikeouts, whiffs and new a pitch — this is still a 30-year-old journeyman pitcher (at best) with projections predicting a 5.70 ERA for him the rest of the season.

Still, for those in deeper leagues, playable arms are hard to come by — like the Orioles, you might need to give Woj a shot. (H/T to Nando Di Fino for reminding me of Wojciechowki’s existence a few weeks back on The Athletic’s “Under the Radar” podcast.)

 

Cal Quantrill, SD (16% owned)

Like Beede, I wrote about Quantrill as a young arm possessing interesting stuff but no clear spot in the rotation. He still has the stuff and, after allowing only one earned run in his last 16 innings, it appears he might have a better grasp on a rotation spot.

It’s not a perfect profile — I prefer to tout those at least above average by both whiffs and CSW, but above-average whiffs, grounders-plus-popups and stuff is enough to warrant further consideration:

Stat Value Percentile
Whiff% 12.7% 71%
CSW% 25.3% 26%
GB+PU% 52% 64%
ACES 0.20 64%

He was also recently used as the “primary” pitcher after an opener, a positive development should that continue. He’s also used his minus curveball less in July (down to 1% usage), a welcome shift:

Fourseam Sinker Curve Slider Change
Usage 28% 27% 4% 19% 22%
# Thrown 196 192 29 135 155
PERCENTILES:
ACES 88% 71% 2% 81% 25%
Whiff% 79% 67% 14% 80% 67%
CSW% 18% 35% 10% 81% 67%
GB+PU% 88% 59% 13% 27% 72%

However, he’s also started featuring his sinker more (up to 40% usage in July) at the expense of his fourseam — a shift that’s harder to defend based on his stuff, outcomes and overall pitching trends in major league baseball. While his projections and K-BB% don’t suggest a ceiling you can dream on, his whiffs and stuff nevertheless portend a playable arm — particularly now that he appears to have a rotation spot.

That’s about the best we can do this time of year. Look for arms with interesting raw stuff. Mine strikeout and K-BB% leaderboards — those are still among the best in-season tools we have. Hopefully one of those finds bridges the gap with quality innings when you need them the most.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




More Recent Articles

 

Running Back Start/Sit Advice - Week 14

Pierre Camus and Chris Mangano break down the running back position to help with tough fantasy football lineup decisions for Week 14 of the 2019 NFL season. They decide who to start or sit among those in RB3 or flex consideration. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest... Read More


Week 14 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


Fantasy Football Booms, Busts - Zach Pascal, Jamaal Williams, Gardner Minshew

Whether this is the first week of your playoffs, the last week of your regular season, or the time to win a DFS league to pay for your holiday presents, this is the most crucial week of your fantasy football season. While my booms from last week (Robert Woods, Jack Doyle, Dede Westbrook, Kyle Allen)... Read More


Wide Receiver Snap Counts and Target Trends - Week 13 Analysis

Wide receivers are essential components toward your ultimate goal of securing league championships. As many of you prepare for your Week 14 matchups, an expanding collection of tools are available that can provide you with an extensive level of knowledge. Those results provide the foundation for this weekly statistical breakdown of the wide receiver position, which... Read More


Week 14 Stream Team - Free Agent and Bye-Week Streamers

Now that the playoffs are beginning in most leagues and the final march for a championship has begun, streaming becomes a  necessary strategy. Knowing who to add and when to start them could be the ultimate difference-maker in a weekly matchup. Making the right streaming decisions could easily be the difference in winning a championship.... Read More


Wide Receiver Start/Sit Advice - Week 14

Pierre Camus and Chris Mangano break down the wide receiver position to help with tough fantasy football lineup decisions for Week 14 of the 2019 NFL season. They decide who to start or sit among those in WR3 or flex consideration. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest... Read More


The King's Week 14 Lineup Rankings and Analysis (Premium Content)

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Below you will find my Week 14 fantasy football lineup rankings for the first round of your playoffs. The ranks are available in PPR, Half PPR, and Standard formats. They will be updated as needed, so make sure to check back for the latest versions, especially on the weekends. Skill Position analysis versus... Read More


Fantasy Football Disaster Recovery: Playoff Panic

Welcome to Disaster Recovery, where each week I'll examine why your studs played like duds. This isn't a place to find out why you should have sat a player for somebody else on your bench. Disaster Recovery is here to examine the guys who you didn't think twice about starting and to help you decide if you should... Read More


Thursday Night Football Matchups Analysis - Week 14

It's that time of year again! While many will be caught up in the thrills of the holiday season, those lucky few who have risen to the top of their fantasy leagues will be sweating over lineup decisions in pursuit of a championship (in most league formats). To our fantasy owners who have managed to... Read More


The Tape Tells All - Derrius Guice Fantasy Outlook

Welcome to another edition of "The Tape Tells All," where I break down some film of an NFL's player performance and try to draw some fantasy football conclusions from that film. This week, I'm looking at Washington running back Derrius Guice, who's finally healthy and finally getting a chance to show why people were so... Read More


Quarterback Leaderboards Before the Fantasy Playoffs - NFL Next Gen Stats

You won't believe it, but you weren't dreaming. That turkey you stuffed your face with a few days ago? Real. Those three games on a Thursday? Real, indeed. Your weekly meeting with football on the telly this past Sunday? Also real. All of that together only meant one thing: the fantasy football regular season is... Read More


Fantasy Playoffs Warning Signs: Wide Receivers

We all know a good wide receiver is important. Most leagues are PPR and more receivers are played than other positions. But the key is finding those wide receivers with favorable matchups. Just like with other positions, it is difficult to know at draft time which defenses will be good or bad by the time... Read More


Offensive Line Rankings Analysis: Week 14

Week 13 had the season's first snow game, a potential SuperBowl preview, and an incredible play from the Miami Dolphins special teams! If you haven't seen it have a look and come back. Now let's move onto Week 14. If you aren't in playoff contention, then this article could help you with some DFS selections.... Read More


Week 14-16 Playoff Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

The playoffs are here, and that means we're going to do things a little differently. I want to take a look at the playoffs as a whole (and in this case we are considering Weeks 14-16) and determine which DSTs you can ride all the way through and which ones you should stream this week.... Read More


NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 14) - Targets and Avoids

If there were a dozen people left in a survivor pool this past week, odds are those pools are down to just several. The upsets began Thursday when the Bills beat the Cowboys, and continued Sunday when the Dolphins and Redskins won as 10-point underdogs. If you're somehow still alive in your pool with just... Read More