Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Sauceda's Slants - Five Starters To Add For Pitching-Thirsty Teams


Oh, the thrill of Monday mornings. On your train commute to work, you rush to set your lineups for the upcoming week. Unfortunately, you see your pitching staff is riddled with swiss flags and “IL” labels — a sign that the chaos of the baseball season has infected your team. You see Max Scherzer ailing with shoulder and back injuries. Do you start him? Blake Snell will undergo surgery on his left elbow, putting into question his return this season. Carlos Carrasco continues to battle leukemia. Your reinforcements are ailing — Tyler Mahle hurts his hamstring on the last pitch of his recent outing and is now on the IL. Jimmy Nelson and Luke Weaver have already been there for months.

Maybe you only face one or two of those issues. Or maybe you face a different, yet painfully similar, set of circumstances. Or maybe, like me, that perfectly describes the current state of your team. Whatever the case may be, if you’re looking for pitching — and who isn’t this time of the season? — then you’re in the right place. They won’t be able to replace any of those names mentioned above, but we’ve highlighted five interesting starting pitchers below who can help you piece things together while your bigger names heal.

These are pitchers rostered in fewer than 41% of fantasy leagues — hopefully, that means they’re available in yours. These are the five that caught my eye, sorted by roster rates. Maybe they catch yours too. (NOTE: All stats and CBS roster data are as of Sunday, 7/28/19)

Editor's Note: Get any full-season MLB Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our Draft Kit, premium rankings, projections, player outlooks, top prospects, dynasty rankings, 15 in-season lineup tools, and over 200 days of expert DFS research. Sign Up Now!

 

Jose Urquidy, HOU (41% owned)

It’s only been four starts for Urquidy. The Astros are among the most likely bets to add a starting pitcher this trade deadline. It’s unclear whether he’s long for the rotation this season.

Nevertheless, the early returns have been very promising — Urquidy has shown top 20% ability by both whiffs and called-strikes-plus-whiffs (CSW):

Stat Value Percentile
Whiff% 13.8% 80%
CSW% 32.4% 89%
GB+PU% 53% 70%

The stuff doesn’t jump off the page, but he does possess above-average velocity, rise and horizontal movement on his fourseam, as well as an above-average velocity gap between his fourseam and changeup. He’s used that to generate a top 15% CSW for both pitches and a top 15% whiff rate on the changeup.

Armed with a balanced arsenal throwing four pitches more than 10% of the time, his curve and slider have been quite effective at generating grounders and popups, and not too shabby by whiffs and CSW:

Fourseam Curve Slider Change
Usage 45% 16% 14% 26%
# Thrown 146 51 45 85
PERCENTILES:
ACES - - - -
Whiff% 37% 87% 67% 86%
CSW% 89% 65% 58% 85%
GB+PU% 32% 87% 80% 78%

It’s true that we don’t know how long Urquidy’s run in the rotation will last, but there’s upside here that suggests he could be a near-every week starter for your teams if he did — THE BAT, for one, sees a potential top 50 starting pitcher. Rotation casualty risk aside, there are few teams that maximize the raw ability and win opportunity of their pitchers like the Astros. You don’t often find that kind of upside available at this point in the season, making Urquidy an intriguing addition for pitching-starved teams.

 

Anthony DeSclafani, CIN (38% owned)

Possessing top 20% stuff, I highlighted “Tony Disco” as part of the ACES refresh in late May. Here are DeSclafani’s stats since then:

58.1 IP, 3.55 ERA, 24.3% K%

While his 4.00 FIP and 1.32 WHIP during that time highlight his imperfect profile — not to mention his hitter’s paradise of a ballpark — there is still value in rostering DeSclafani. He rated as 87th percentile by ACES and has been above average by both whiffs and CSW this season:

Stat Value Percentile
Whiff% 12.3% 65%
CSW% 28.3% 58%
GB+PU% 45% 26%
ACES 0.48 87%

He may not have the every-week-starter upside as Urquidy, but he’s a useful arm who can inexpensively deliver more than a strikeout per inning and palatable ratios.

 

Tyler Beede, SF (36% owned)

In early June, I was impressed by Beede’s three above-average pitches by stuff, calling him a “borderline 12-team pick up.” Since then, his results have been playable if uneven, with a 1.26 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 and 4.13 ERA driven by an obscene 1.72 HR/9.

He’s been above average by all three of whiffs, CSW and grounders-plus-popups:

Stat Value Percentile
Whiff% 12.7% 70%
CSW% 28.5% 60%
GB+PU% 51% 58%

The question remains command, something projections believe may remain an issue (4.5 to 5 projected BB/9 ROS). Even so, there’s enough here to remain interested. Pitching in baseball’s most extreme pitcher’s park is a nice start. Also, in 10 starts since returning to the rotation on 5/30, he’s reigned in his homers a bit (1.54 HR/9) and has pitched to a sub-4.00 ERA.

He’s started to throw his cutter more in July (up from 1% in June to 15% in July), a welcome shift given results on the pitch:

Fourseam Cutter Curve Slider Change
Usage 57% 6% 14% 2% 20%
# Thrown 585 64 145 23 208
PERCENTILES:
Whiff% 45% 97% 75% 37% 85%
CSW% 32% 86% 63% 95% 87%
GB+PU% 57% 73% 94% 45% 80%

It would be great to see him rely less on his fourseam, but as walks have been a bit of an issue (4.15 BB/9), he’s had to lean on it to throw strikes. That will be the thing to monitor moving forward — can he throw enough strikes to be able to get to his secondaries? Given the whiffs, stuff, park and first-round pedigree, I’m inclined to add and find out.

 

Asher Wojciechowski, BAL (26% owned)

Like DeScalafani, Wojciechowski (or "Woj," for short) plays in an awful ballpark for pitchers. The Orioles are among the worst teams in baseball — if not the worst. Before being traded to the Orioles, he pitched 84 innings of a 5.83 FIP (3.61 ERA) for the Indians AAA affiliate this season. Now 30 years old, he has just 108 major league innings to his name.

There are tons of reasons to fade Woj. But sometimes, particularly in deeper leagues, you just can’t ignore a top 5% whiff rate — small 30-inning sample be damned:

Stat Value Percentile
Whiff% 16.8% 95%
CSW% 31.1% 83%

If he qualified — a big “if,” obviously — his 31.1% strikeout rate (11.1 K/9) would rank 7th in all of baseball, sandwiched among a who's who of elite starting pitching goodness: Cole, Sale, Scherzer, Verlander, Boyd, Bieber, deGrom and … Wojciechowski? His 24.4% K-BB% would rank 9th.

With a career 5.80 ERA … what is going on here? What’s changed?

Interestingly, it’s a (somewhat) new pitch! Woj has re-introduced a tasty cutter:

While below average by velocity, his cutter is quite good by both drop (85th percentile) and horizontal movement (97th percentile), helping drive top 20% whiffs and CSW on the pitch:

Fourseam Cutter Slider Change
Usage 53% 18% 27% 2%
# Thrown 250 87 129 10
PERCENTILES:
Whiff% 85% 98% 72% 78%
CSW% 62% 81% 83% 29%
GB+PU% 69% 27% 32% 0%

To be clear, this remains a volatile situation. The Orioles will provide few chances for wins. The AL East is a bloodbath, particularly when you don’t get the luxury of facing Baltimore. The ballpark remains awful. While there are promising signs — high strikeouts, whiffs and new a pitch — this is still a 30-year-old journeyman pitcher (at best) with projections predicting a 5.70 ERA for him the rest of the season.

Still, for those in deeper leagues, playable arms are hard to come by — like the Orioles, you might need to give Woj a shot. (H/T to Nando Di Fino for reminding me of Wojciechowki’s existence a few weeks back on The Athletic’s “Under the Radar” podcast.)

 

Cal Quantrill, SD (16% owned)

Like Beede, I wrote about Quantrill as a young arm possessing interesting stuff but no clear spot in the rotation. He still has the stuff and, after allowing only one earned run in his last 16 innings, it appears he might have a better grasp on a rotation spot.

It’s not a perfect profile — I prefer to tout those at least above average by both whiffs and CSW, but above-average whiffs, grounders-plus-popups and stuff is enough to warrant further consideration:

Stat Value Percentile
Whiff% 12.7% 71%
CSW% 25.3% 26%
GB+PU% 52% 64%
ACES 0.20 64%

He was also recently used as the “primary” pitcher after an opener, a positive development should that continue. He’s also used his minus curveball less in July (down to 1% usage), a welcome shift:

Fourseam Sinker Curve Slider Change
Usage 28% 27% 4% 19% 22%
# Thrown 196 192 29 135 155
PERCENTILES:
ACES 88% 71% 2% 81% 25%
Whiff% 79% 67% 14% 80% 67%
CSW% 18% 35% 10% 81% 67%
GB+PU% 88% 59% 13% 27% 72%

However, he’s also started featuring his sinker more (up to 40% usage in July) at the expense of his fourseam — a shift that’s harder to defend based on his stuff, outcomes and overall pitching trends in major league baseball. While his projections and K-BB% don’t suggest a ceiling you can dream on, his whiffs and stuff nevertheless portend a playable arm — particularly now that he appears to have a rotation spot.

That’s about the best we can do this time of year. Look for arms with interesting raw stuff. Mine strikeout and K-BB% leaderboards — those are still among the best in-season tools we have. Hopefully one of those finds bridges the gap with quality innings when you need them the most.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




More Recent Articles

 

ADP Cost Analysis – Robbie Ray vs Trevor Bauer

With fantasy baseball draft season in full swing, those of us who partake in this joyous game are now looking through as much draft data as possible in a bid to find players we love who have lower average draft positions (ADP) than we believe they should. All this to eke out as much draft... Read More


2020 Keeper Value Rankings - Second Base

Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft pick in order to keep a player into the upcoming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values". In the marketing world, Value can be defined as "the extent to which a good or service (player) is... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers – C.J. Cron

As another fantasy baseball season approaches, we once again have the chance to discuss C.J. Cron as a fantasy sleeper. Cron will be playing for his third team in three seasons. It is tough to wrap one's head around the idea that a player of Cron's talent continues to be undervalued by professional and fantasy... Read More


2020 Starting Pitcher Rankings - H2H Points Leagues

Points leagues may seem like a slight variation from traditional 5x5 category scoring leagues but you must approach draft day with a very different strategy if you wish to truly compete. All preseason long, RotoBaller has you covered with the latest rankings for all fantasy baseball league types. Here we present our points league rankings... Read More


Second-Half Improvements: Buy Into These Starting Pitchers

The second half of the season is always put under a microscope for starting pitchers. Fantasy players have a love for the second half of the season, as the belief is that pitchers who take a step forward could carry over that success the next season and perhaps even build upon it. But, as we... Read More


How to Attack RP in SV+HLD Leagues

No position has seen as much evolution in recent seasons as the relief pitcher. Gone are the days where starters were expected to go seven innings as most teams have embraced the idea of "super-bullpening" and try to fit as many pitchers that can throw 95+ MPH into their bullpen as they can. Many fantasy... Read More


Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitch Info

One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. More than any other sport, baseball has a slew of statistical measures that can be dissected in numerous ways to analyze player performance. Pitch Info is a publicly-available pitch tracking system that provides a lot of different data to... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Staff Rankings

Below you will find RotoBaller's 2020 fantasy baseball rankings, tiers and auction dollar values for the 2020 MLB season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Mixed, Head-to-Head, Points, AL/NL Only, Two-Catcher Top 2020 prospects, Dynasty leagues, Keeper values Export the rankings easily... Read More


Mock Draft Review: Best Late-Round Targets

Last week, some members of the RotoBaller staff completed a 12-team mock draft for standard 5x5 format. After the draft, we each broke down our strategy and some of our favorite picks, which can be found here. However, I want to take a closer look at one portion of the draft in particular. Since we know that... Read More


Faster and Furious: Pitchers with Rising Velocity/Performance

Welcome fantasy baseball players! I’m sure that you, like me, are anxiously counting down the days until your drafts and Opening Day. While the fantasy season may not start for several weeks, there are plenty of things we can do to start preparing for a successful season. One of those things is to take a good... Read More


James Karinchak Is A Relief Pitcher To Know in 2020

One of the lesser-known players that intrigues me for the 2020 MLB season is Indians relief pitcher James Karinchak. The former Bryant Bulldog was drafted by Cleveland in the ninth round in the 2017 draft and went on to have one of the most outrageous statistical seasons in minor league baseball history. As someone who... Read More


2020 Relief Pitcher Rankings - H2H Points Leagues

Often regarded as an inferior fantasy baseball format, points leagues offer a different style of boasting over your friends or coworkers similar to that of fantasy football. These setups are typically head-to-head formats for a one-week stretch where the player with the most points gets a win. Easy right? While it's true that roster construction... Read More


2019 Barrel Breakouts: Who's For Real and Who's Next?

As pitchers and catchers get even closer to reporting and most fantasy leagues prepare for their drafts, everybody is looking for a leg up on the competition - a way to get in on a guy before everybody else does. In this article, we're going to look for a way to identify hitters who improved... Read More


Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitcher BABIP

While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy owners should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what really matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. While some of this luck is unpredictable, we can and should predict some... Read More


Second Year Player Preview: Fantasy Baseball 2020 ADP Analysis

Host Anthony Aniano of RotoBaller Radio discuss the 2020 fantasy baseball season and keeps you updated with all the latest news and analysis Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 AM ET, every weekday afternoon from 1-2 PM ET, Saturday nights from 9-11 PM ET... Read More