Running Back Best-Ball Rankings Analysis (Part 2)

August 28, 2021

Running back rankings analysis for 2021 best ball drafts for RBs in tiers 4 and up. Phil Clark breaks down the best values relative to ADP for best ball leagues.

Many of you who participate in best-ball leagues are planning to continue your involvement until the end of peak draft season. That is why the NFL team at RotoBaller will provide the resources you need to prepare for every remaining draft in this popular format.

We will also deliver breakdowns of the latest tiered rankings following every update. That includes my two-part series that will examine the wide receiver position. This article will place the spotlight on tiers 4-9.

You can find part one with a full breakdown of tiers 1-3 here. 

RB Best Ball Rankings

Tier 4

Kareem Hunt, Myles Gaskin, Mike Davis, Darrell Henderson 

Kareem Hunt jumps over a defender for the touchdown 😳pic.twitter.com/GIRwBLvTBB

— Everything Cleveland (@everythingcle_) November 22, 2020

Hunt is just 26, and the former NFL rushing leader (2017) remains effective as both a runner and receiver. His role is also secure as he shares touches with Nick Chubb, within a Cleveland offense that averaged 30.9 attempts per game in 2020. Hunt finished at RB10 in PPR scoring from Weeks 1-17, while averaging 12.4 attempts and 52.6 yards per game on the ground. Those averages also rose to 16.3 carries, and 63.5 yards per game during Chubb’s four-game absence (Weeks 5-8), as Hunt finished at RB8 in scoring during those contests. Hunt can function as a high-end RB3 who would deliver RB1 production if Chubb is sidelined during the season.

Gaskin made an unexpected arrival onto the fantasy landscape in 2020 by accumulating 522 total yards (87 per game) during Miami’s first six matchups. He was also 18th in rushing yardage (340/56.7 per game), and fourth in receptions (27/4.5 per game) during that sequence, while rising to RB16 in scoring. A six-game absence (knee/COVID) interrupted his statistical momentum. But he easily led the Dolphins’ backfield in attempts (142/14.2 per game), rushing yardage (584/58.4 per game) receptions (41/4.1 per game), and receiving yardage (388/38.8 yards per game). Former Ram Malcolm Brown is a candidate to pilfer red zone carries. But Gaskin should lead the Dolphins’ backfield in touches throughout the season.

Davis delivered his most productive season since entering the NFL (2015) .while assembling career highs in attempts (165/11 per game), rushing yards (642/42.8 per game), and rushing touchdowns (6).

MD in there 💪 pic.twitter.com/vGfCLjqL9I

— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) October 18, 2020

He also achieved career-best numbers as a receiver while finishing third among all backs in targets (70/5.0 per game), and receptions (59/3.9 per game), and fourth in receiving yards (373/24.9 per game) from Weeks 2-16. He is now primed to function as the Falcons’ lead back. He will also be operating in a re-designed attack under Arthur Smith, with Qadree Ollison directly below him on the depth chart. That has vaulted Davis among the low-end RB2 options.

The torn Achilles that former first-round selection Cam Akers suffered in July appeared to elevate Henderson into unquestioned RB1 responsibilities, for LA, while dramatically altering his place within the fantasy landscape. Now, the arrival of Sony Michel will reshape Henderson’s status once again. Henderson started 11 games last season, and was second on the Rams in attempts (138/9.2 per game), and rushing yardage (624/41.6 per game). He had been primed to operate with Xavier Jones and Jake Funk below him on the depth chart. But Michel has been inserted into the equation, and the former Patriot will confiscate touches that would have been allocated to Henderson before the trade. This should compel you to avoid selecting him until Round 7 of your drafts.

Tier 5 

Michael Carter, Trey Sermon, Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, Damien Harris

Michael Carter, coming at you. #Jets pic.twitter.com/N3DshfLPpO

— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) August 25, 2021

Carter shared touches with Williams during his final two seasons at North Carolina, but he still accumulated 2,248 rushing yards (93.7 per game) and 721 receiving yards (17.5 per game). He also led the Tar Heels in rushing as a senior (1,245/113.2 per game) while also generating 267 yards (24.3 per game) as a receiver. Carter became the beneficiary of a favorable landing spot, as the Jets backfield does not contain an undisputed lead back. Carter will receive touches in a committee with Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson. But his versatility should help him seize an expanding role as the year progresses.

Sermon was infused into a favorable environment when John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan traded up to select him during Round 3 of April’s NFL Draft. Sermon also possesses the size, strength and acceleration to function effectively as a one-cut runner. This should boost his chances of accumulating yardage in Kyle Shanahan's outside zone rushing approach. Jeff Wilson Jr. was placed on injured reserve following meniscus surgery, which will keep him sidelined until Week 8 (or later). This has placed Sermon in position to share the majority of touches in a committee with Raheem Mostert, while providing managers with a productive resource throughout his rookie season.

Chase Edmonds touchdown! #RedSea pic.twitter.com/3iUAjKLfQ2

— Roto Street Journal (RSJ) (@RotoStJournal) October 11, 2020

Edmonds confiscated the role of Arizona’s receiving back during 2020 and finished fourth on the Cardinals in target share (12.5%). This propelled him to seventh among backs in targets (67/4.2 per game), and receptions (53/3.3 per game). He was also sixth in both receiving yards (402/25.1 per game), and red-zone targets (11), and tied for third in touchdowns (4). Edmonds also attained a career-high 46.4% snap share, while working in rotation with Kenyan Drake (58.0%). He should exceed that percentage while sharing touches with former Steeler James Conner, as Edmonds’ pass-catching responsibilities remain intact.

Mostert has only dropped from RB28 to RB30 since April, despite the looming presence of promising newcomer Trey Sermon.  Both backs will share touches as the primary components in San Francisco’s backfield rotation, although Sermon could easily commandeer the majority of opportunities during the season. Mostert can deliver highly productive outings, which sustains his viability as an option in the best-ball format. But managers should remain aware that he has yet to reach 140 rushing attempts or finish among the top 25 in PPR scoring during any of his six professional seasons.   

The juke from Damien Harris was nasty 🔥 @DHx34 @Patriots

📺 #NEvsPHI on @nflnetwork (or check local listings) pic.twitter.com/6HKP75pFtA

— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) August 20, 2021

Harris' ADP remained stationary in Round 8 entering July (80/32). But the combination of his usage during the preseason, and the departure of Sony Michel have ignited his rise to Round 6 (ADP 66/RB28). Michel’s exodus has also cemented Harris’ status as New England’s primary back. Harris led the Patriots in rushing last season (691 yards/69.1 per game), despite missing six matchups (hand) and finished fifth among backs in yardage during his first six matchups (Weeks 4-10).

James White will function as New England's pass-catching back, while rookie Rhamondre Stevenson will also receive a weekly allotment of carries. But Harris will commandeer the majority of rushing attempts, and could eclipse 1,000 yards if he can evade any lingering health issues. He would also collect additional red zone carries if Mac Jones overtakes Cam Newton as the Patriots’ starting signal-caller.  

Tier 6

Melvin Gordon III, James Conner, AJ Dillon, Leonard Fournette, Jamaal Williams, Ronald Jones II,  Kenyan Drake  

Gordon led Denver in multiple rushing categories during his first season with the Broncos, including attempts (215/14.3 per game), and yardage (986/65.7 per game). Those totals were his highest since 2017, while also placing him ninth among all backs in each category. But Gordon has entered the final year of his contract with Williams lurking as an enormous threat to confiscate Denver’s RB1 duties.

Touches will be distributed between Conner and the aforementioned Chase Edmonds in Arizona's backfield. However, Conner missed 14 games during four seasons with Pittsburgh, while his career-highs from 2018 (215 attempts/16.5 per game), (973 rushing yards/74.8 per game), (71 targets/5.5 per game), and receiving yards (497/38.2 per game), have declined during the past two seasons (12.4 attempts/52 yards/40.5 targets/20.2 receiving yards per game). His track record of lingering injuries should be considered before selecting him at his Round 9 ADP. 

After the nebulous situation surrounding Aaron Rodgers was finally resolved, the incentive for targeting Dillon increased considerably. The former second-round pick has been presented with a clear runway toward operating as Aaron Jones’ backup, following the departure of Jamaal Williams. Dillon should also commandeer a large percentage of Williams’ 2020 workload, which included 154 touches, 119 rushing attempts, and 23 red zone carries during 2020. This makes him a viable option during Round 8 of your drafts. 

Leonard @_fournette flipped the switch and elevated his game for the playoffs 😤

(via @thecheckdown) pic.twitter.com/bndhCysDTu

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 29, 2021

Fournette finished the regular season with forgettable averages of 7.5 attempts, 28.2 rushing yards, 3.6 targets, and 17.9 receiving yards per game. But he ignited for 448 total yards during the playoffs, while averaging 16 attempts, 75 rushing yards, 5.3 targets, and 37 receiving yards per game. However, there is a clear risk in becoming enamored with any Tampa Bay running back, due to the congested nature of the Buccaneers' backfield.

Williams’ Round 10 ADP underscores the tepid level of interest that many managers have demonstrated for securing the fifth-year back. But Williams appears destined to procure a sizable workload in a committee with D'Andre Swift (ADP31/RB15).. He averaged 10.4 touches and 49 total yards per game as a Packer from 2017-2020, and statements from Detroit’s offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn have indicated that he will remain consistently involved in the Lions’ restructured attack. This will lead to output that easily exceeds the expectations of his ADP.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones with a 98-YARD TOUCHDOWN! pic.twitter.com/izlicGwtQx

— The Comeback (@thecomeback) November 15, 2020

Jones generated career-highs in every major rushing category during his third season including attempts (191/13.7 per game), yardage (978/69.9 per game), touchdowns (7), and 100-yard performances (4). But his per-game averages dropped to 11.3 attempts and 46.3 yards during the postseason. His snap share also dwindled significantly (49%/28%), while Fournette’s usage and output soared. Jones and Fournette will operate in a rotation, while Gio Bernard should also siphon targets.

Drake’s 2020 results were largely considered to be a disappointment by managers who secured him at his Round 2 ADP (16/RB12). But he still established career-highs in rushing attempts (239/15.9 per game), and rushing yardage (955/63.7 per game). His target per game average dropped from 4.9 during 2019 to 2.1 last season. However, the Raiders signed him to an $11 million contract, and Jon Gruden is committed to the deployment of Drake as both a rusher and receiver. 

Tier 7

Gus Edwards, Zack Moss, Sony Michel, Kenneth Gainwell, Devin Singletary, James White, Nyheim Hines, David Johnson, Latavius Murray, Rashaad Penny, Tony Pollard 

Gus Edwards touchdown....sweet #FreeDobbins pic.twitter.com/xrgxcBTJXk

— Roto Street Journal (RSJ) (@RotoStJournal) December 15, 2020

Edwards has eclipsed 700 rushing yards during each of his three seasons with Baltimore, and will retain a consistent weekly role in an offense that led the league in run play percentage during 2020 (55.9%).

The allocation of touches between Moss and Singletary will prevent both backs from accumulating sizable numbers, while ensuring that frustration will ensue for anyone who targets them during the draft process.

Michel’s improved efficiency during 2020 went largely unnoticed. But he established a new career-highs in yards per carry (5.7), after averaging 4.1 during 2018/2019 (4.5/3.7). Michel also averaged 3.6 yards after contact per rush, after managing just 1.85 during his first two seasons. Now, Michel has been presented with an opportunity to resurrect his career while sharing touches with Darrell Henderson.

.@KENNETHGAINWEL gets to the paint!#PHIvsNYJ | #FlyEaglesFly

📺: NBC10 pic.twitter.com/mz9rTrhpKM

— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) August 28, 2021

Gainwell finished 12th among backs in rushing yardage during his final season at Memphis (1,459/102.2 per game). He also collected 51 receptions, and gained experience while operating in the Tigers' RPO (run/pass option) spread offense. All of which should translate into a complementary role behind Miles Sanders. 

White’s unwavering ability to perform efficiently as the Patriots’ primary receiving back includes finishing among the top 10 at his position in targets for five consecutive seasons.

Hines finished third among all backs in targets (76/4.8 per game). receptions (63/3.9 per game) and receiving yards (482/30.1 per game). His recurrent role as Indy's pass-catching back should propel him to a cluster of highly productive outings during the year.

Johnson averaged 13.6 points per game during 2020, while leading the Texans in attempts (147/12.3 per game), rushing yards (691/57.6 per game), and rushing touchdowns (6). However, it is difficult to manufacture enthusiasm for targeting Johnson since he could be relegated to a pass-catching role while residing below Phillip Lindsay, on the depth chart.

New Orleans enters Week 1 with a severe shortage of proven weapons. This presents Sean Payton with rationale for increased reliance on his ground game. That could expand Murray’s workload beyond the 11.2 touches per game that he has averaged in two seasons with the Saints. However, Tony Jones Jr. could also leapfrog Murray after his promising performances during the preseason.

Penny’s career-best numbers (85 carries/419 yards) were assembled back in 2018, as injuries have hampered his availability and effectiveness. He has resurfaced following his latest health issue (knee) but it is uncertain if he can re-capture Seattle’s RB2 responsibilities.

Pollard finished at RB20 in (PPR) scoring from Weeks 8-15, due to a combination of talent and expanded opportunities during those matchups. His value would skyrocket if Ezekiel Elliott would be absent for any reason.

Tiers 8-9

Phillip Lindsay, Tony Jones Jr., Giovani Bernard, Qadree Ollison, Alexander Mattison, J.D. McKissic, Tevin Coleman, Elijah Mitchell, Chuba Hubbard, Damien Williams. Darrynton Evans,  Marlon Mack, Xavier Jones, Rhamondre Stevenson,  Ty Johnson, Tarik Cohen, Darrel Williams  

The collection of backs that comprise these tiers are located from RB50-RB66 in our updated rankings. Their value could surge or decline if various factors emerge during upcoming weeks.

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