RADIO
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates, round matchups, and potential outright/T20 adds after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and more often than not this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but every now and then when a sneaky, low owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article we are going to break down the previous round's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range, who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitated towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Ballers
We mentioned that we like to target golfers who played poorly, but that doesn't mean we need to entirely ignore those that played well. We can use a few of these guys in our lineups still, but we want to have the majority of our player pool coming from the "Prior Round Crawlers" who managed to drag their round to the 18th hole, hoping that the next day would be better.
Crawlers
This list is comprised of players who played poorly. There are definitely a few Crawlers I will be looking to target.
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Round 2 Power Rankings
My power rankings for round 2 are calculated as follows: Pretournament Ranking (50%) + Round 2 Scoring Average (37.5%) + Birdie or Better % (12.5%)
The Chalk Squad
These golfers should be the most owned tomorrow based off of their round 1 performance (SG Total > 0) and general skill level (R2 Pwr Rnk > 1) entering the tournament.
Chalk I have my eye on: Sam Burns, Corey Conners, Jon Rahm.
Chalk I am not playing: Rory is going to probably find himself 40%+ owned in Showdown tomorrow after collecting 30% ownership in weeklong contests.
The Pivot People
These golfers entered the tournament with high expectations, only to lose strokes to the field, making them less appetizing than the Chalk Squad but still have Round 2 Power Rankings above 1.
People I have my eye on:
- Scottie Scheffler is a hot putter away from going very low, at single digit ownership. He has returned to his childhood putter and it could spark up the greens if he sees one or two putts roll in early.
- Hideki missed a 3 foot putt today and we are just waiting for THAT round from Hideki we he goes off.
- Cameron Young struggled today but his game suits this golf course so well. Hopefully after a poor round everybody jumps off while we jump on.
- Seonghyeon Kim was one of my favorite players entering the week and played rather poorly today. Hopefully he bounces back tomorrow.
- Sahith is one of the most volatile players on tour, and after losing about 9 strokes to the field, he will be massively under owned with enormous upside
People I am not playing:
- Max Homa appears to have a back injury.
The Leverage Legends
This bunch of benchwarmers, with sunscreen not entirely absorbed by their skin, sneakers with shoelaces long enough to tie down goliath, all have the potential to have their Hollywood moment tomorrow, completely outperforming their baseline for a day, while hardly finding themselves in anybody's player pool because, well, the beginning of this massive sentence explains that. They have the opportunity to be legendary tomorrow, while providing us with massive leverage on the field.
Legends I have my eye on:
- Scott Stallings has been playing tremendous golf lately and should not lose strokes to the field too many more times this week. He is streaky and get it going.
- Justin Suh shot +3 with an 8 (+4) on a single hole. He makes a lot of birdies and showdown is where his volatility can be of value to us.
- Mito, immense upside and can go scorched earth with the irons. Hopefully we get him around 7% owned when he shoots the low round of the day tomorrow.
Legends I am avoiding:
- Kurt Kitayama and Seamus Power both sit inside the top 10 while both losing strokes on approach. They will probably rather high owned with a lack of consistent ball striking to support their success.
Round 2 Matchup
Jordan Spieth o Max Homa: -105
Jordan Speith played about as bad as he could today and Max Homa is evidently injured. Expect Spieth to bounce back tomorrow, while Max may have to back out (pun intended). Max is objectively a better player right now, but he is hobbled and could land up pulling out of the tournament tomorrow after a few tough holes.
T10 Live Add
Shane Lowry +250 BetMGM (ties paid in full)
Shane Lowry played the back 9 without a putter and still ended the day at T15. He is striking his irons really well and could easily climb this leaderboard as the course starts playing tougher and his putter starts gaining him strokes.
Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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