RADIO
Top fantasy football risers and fallers heading into Week 3 of the 2021 NFL season. Adam Koffler identifies players at QB, RB, WR, and TE whose trade value for fantasy football is rising or falling.
Week 2 of the 2021 NFL season is officially in the books. Just like in Week 1, overreactions will undoubtedly be made, but there's also a lot of good information we can use to help make decisions as we head into Week 3 and beyond.
In this weekly column, we'll be looking at players whose arrow may be pointing up, and players whose arrow may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.
Here are the key risers and fallers coming out of Week 2 of the NFL season.
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Week 2 Fantasy Football Risers
Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers
All it took was a change of scenery and some weapons on offense for the former 3rd overall pick to make some noise. Through two games, Darnold is averaging 292 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. He's thrown just one interception and has completed 68.5% of his passes. In his three years in New York, Darnold completed just 59.8% of his passes with a 45:39 touchdown to interception ratio. He looks good, and we could rarely say that in his first three NFL seasons with the Jets.
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Everyone flocked to the waiver wire to pick up Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler after a Week 1 injury to Jerry Jeudy. For all intents and purposes, both guys were underwhelming in Week 2 (despite a Patrick touchdown). Instead, it was Sutton who took on the alpha role, catching 9-of-12 targets for 159 yards. What's more, per PFF, Sutton tied Cooper Kupp as the highest-graded wide receiver in Week 2 (90.6). And here's something unexpected -- per Gregg Rosenthal, no quarterback in the league has attempted more throws over 20 yards than Teddy Bridgewater this season.
Marvin Jones Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
People forget Marvin Jones is the only wide receiver on this Jacksonville roster that was handpicked by Urban Meyer and the new regime. Through two games, it certainly shows. He's developed a nice chemistry with Trevor Lawrence and in return, he's seen 20 targets from the rookie quarterback. That's more than both D.J. Chark (16) and Laviska Shenault Jr. (17). Jones is also second in the league in air yards (293) behind just Courtland Sutton.
Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens
With their first-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, the Baltimore Ravens selected WR Rashod Bateman out of Minnesota. After what was already considered a mediocre sophomore season, people were ready to write off Marquise Brown. But then Bateman went down with a groin injury during camp, and Brown was thrust, once again, into the WR1 role in Baltimore -- and he hasn't disappointed. Through two games, Brown has 12 receptions on 16 targets for 182 yards and two touchdowns. He has an impressive 29.6% target share on the young season. With Bateman out for an extended period of time, it looks like Lamar Jackson has made Marquise Brown his go-to option in the passing game, even ahead of TE Mark Andrews.
Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals
After playing on just 29% of the snaps in Week 1, the Purdue rookie saw his playing time increase in Week 2 (46% of the snaps). Not just that, but Moore was targeted eight times on his 24 routes run against the Vikings. That's good for a targets per route run (TPRR) rate of 33%. Even though he played on just 29% of the snaps in Week 1, he garnered five targets, good for a TPRR of 35.7%. What those high TPRR rates tell us is that Moore is a favorite of Kyler Murray's when he's on the field and running routes. As long as Moore is healthy, Kliff Kingsbury will find a way to scheme him the football. His stock is rising, and rising fast.
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
All things considered, Pollard looked pretty good against a stout Tampa Bay defense in Week 1. So what'd the Cowboys do? They gave him more work in Week 2 vs. the Chargers. He played 35% of the snaps compared to just 24% of the snaps in Week 1, and also got a whopping 16 touches. He churned out 140 total yards and a touchdown with those opportunities. What's more, he touched the ball on 72.6% of his snaps in Week 2 (16-of-21). With the Cowboys looking to preserve Ezekiel Elliott for the long 17-game season, expect Pollard to see an increased workload as the season progresses.
Michael Carter, New York Jets
After getting just six opportunities (four carries and two targets) on 26% of the snaps in Week 1, Carter got 14 opportunities (11 carries and three targets) on 45% of the snaps in Week 2. He ate into the workloads of both Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson. It's only a matter of time before the Jets' 4th-round rookie running back, hand-picked by the current coaching regime, takes over as the lead back in an offense that is sure to improve as the season progresses.
Other Risers: Elijah Moore, Darnell Mooney, Michael Pittman Jr., Quintez Cephus, Ty'Son Williams, Elijah Mitchell (again, due to all the 49ers RB injuries)
Week 2 Fantasy Football Fallers
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
After being “eased in” during Week 1 vs. the Lions with a 47% snap share, Aiyuk played a bit more in Week 2 vs. the Eagles, seeing a 54% snap share. He also was targeted twice compared to his zero targets in Week 1. He ran more routes in Week 2, but he still looks to be firmly entrenched behind Deebo Samuel in the wide receiver pecking order. Not only that, but he’s on a run-first 49ers team that has run the ball 54.1% of the time through the first two weeks of the season. He’s going to need to explode quickly for his fifth-round ADP to pay off. Many will use this opportunity to “buy-low,” but I think it’s time to reset expectations for the second year wideout in an offense with a clear identity.
Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
AB lit it up Week 1, catching five passes for 121 yards and a score on seven targets. He played 65% of the snaps in that game vs. the Cowboys. In Week 2, that snap % fell dramatically to just 44.4%. And in that game vs. the Falcons, he totaled one catch for 17 yards on three targets. Brown will have his moments, and business will be boomin’ in a few games this season, but it’s likely going to be an up and down roller coaster. I’d rather have guys that play at least 75-80% of the snaps and aren’t competing for targets with two other elite wide receivers (Chris Godwin and Mike Evans).
Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Shenault now has 17 targets in the first two weeks of the season. That’s not a bad number, but when you dive a bit deeper, the truth gets uncovered. His average depth of target sits at just 4.7 yards. That’d be fantastic if the Jaguars were a high-powered offense scoring a bunch of points, but that’s just not their identity. For all the hype surrounding Shenault after the Travis Etienne injury, his route tree seems fairly limited, and he isn’t being given opportunities down the field as those are going to Marvin Jones Jr. and D.J. Chark Jr.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs
Edwards-Helaire is getting the snap share we all wanted him to after drafting him as a top-15 RB this season. The problem is he’s not getting the high-value touches we had hoped for. In Week 1, he played on 72% of the snaps and had 14 carries and three targets. His fantasy managers were relatively excited heading into Week 2 given workload and shape share. But instead, we saw the snap share fall to 62% — and more importantly, he had just 13 carries and zero targets. He also gave way to Darrel Williams on the goal-line, which is especially concerning.
We expected positive regression on his five total touchdowns last season. To be an RB1, Edwards-Helaire needs to score touchdowns and/or be utilized in the passing game, both of which don’t seem to be coming to fruition through two weeks. Granted it’s still early, but the role for Edwards-Helaire doesn’t seem to be as robust as we had expected.
Damien Harris, New England Patriots
He found the end zone in Week 2, so you might wonder why I’m listing Harris as a faller. Well, he played just 41% of the snaps in a game the Patriots dominated the Jets. That came after playing 51% of the snaps in Week 1. His percentage of RB carries also decreased from Week 1 to Week 2, going from 79.3% to 69.6%. His total RB opportunities (carries + targets) decreased from 72.2% to 56.7%.
What happens if the Patriots are playing from behind in Weeks 3 and 4 against the Saints and Buccaneers? There’s a chance Harris gets game scripted out when the Patriots are trailing, and that leaves me feeling uneasy about his future value. Subsequently, I really like the prospects of James White, particularly in PPR leagues. White has 12 receptions on 13 targets from Mac Jones through the first two weeks of the season.
Other Fallers: Marquez Callaway, Darius Slayton, A.J. Dillon, George Kittle
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