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Rob's top 3 fantasy football WR busts and overvalued draft picks. His overvalued wide receivers and potential ADP busts to avoid, including DJ Moore.
Too often, fantasy managers "love" or "hate" a player, and sometimes we get "take lock." What does that mean? It's when a fantasy manager's opinion on a player remains unchanged despite new information. Fantasy managers should strive to stay as fluid as possible in their drafts and when forming opinions on players. How we view a particular player is a two-part question. The first is simple: how do we expect this player to perform? The second is, what does it cost to acquire him?
This article focuses on three receivers whose average draft position (ADP) is too high. That doesn't mean don't draft these players, period. It means wait until they're cheaper or they fall in your draft, if they do. These are good players, make no mistake. They wouldn't have the prices they have if they weren't, but for reasons that will be explained below, these receivers are overpriced and should be avoided at their current costs.
Let's get started and look at some of the worst value picks at receiver this year in fantasy football drafts. To take advantage of our great premium tools, please use the promo code "BOOM" to receive a 10% discount.
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D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears - WR20
History tends to repeat itself, and once a player reaches their fourth season, they tend to be who they are. Moore is entering his eighth season. In his second season, Moore averaged 12.5 half-PPR PPG and finished as the WR18. The following year, he averaged 11.9 half-PPR PPG and was the WR20. He averaged 11.1 half-PPR PPG in 2021, finishing as the WR29. In his final season with the Panthers, he finished as the WR30 with a 10.4 half-PPR PPG average.
In his first season with the Bears, he was the WR10 with a 14.4 half-PPR PPG average. Last year, however, he was the WR32 with a 10.7 half-PPR PPG average. In six seasons since his rookie year, he's only once outplayed his current WR20 ADP ranking in a meaningful way. He has only one season in which he averaged more than 12.5 half-PPR PPG. Based on his career arc, the odds are not good that he will provide a significant return on his current cost of acquisition.
The argument for Moore primarily begins and ends with the new head coach, Ben Johnson. Fantasy managers should always be a little bit skeptical when their No. 1 pro-argument about a particular player isn't directly about said player. Again, this doesn't make Moore a bad player or someone fantasy managers cannot draft, but based on his career history, you're being required to buy him at his ceiling. There are numerous unknowns to consider.
Rome Odunze was the ninth overall pick in last year's draft and was regarded as an elite prospect. He had 734 yards last year as a rookie, despite competing for targets with Moore, veteran Keenan Allen, and Cole Kmet. He accomplished this feat despite the poor quarterback play and the coaching carousel. In the past decade, there have been 19 round one receivers who posted at least 725 yards in their rookie season. Just shy of 74% went on to post 1,000 yards (or a pace of it) in their second season.
It's not just Odunze. The Bears still have Kmet and D'Andre Swift, too, who are not nearly as intimidating as Colston Loveland, the tenth overall pick in this year's draft, and Luther Burden III, the 39th overall pick. This is, by far, the most target competition Moore will have ever faced. It's not even close. He'll be earning targets against not one, but two top-1o picks.
Those drafting Moore at his current price are hoping for several things. The first being that Caleb Williams is far better than he showed last season. He'll have to be. The second is the belief that Moore will play in the slot in Johnson's offense. Being utilized in the same role that Johnson used Amon-Ra St. Brown in Detroit is undoubtedly appealing; however, several differences are at play here.
For starters, Williams is not even close to Jared Goff. Moore isn't nearly as good as St. Brown. The target competition in Chicago is better than that of Detroit. You can compare Odunze to Jameson Williams and Loveland to Sam LaPorta, but there's no one in Detroit to compare Kmet and Burden to.
DJ Moore in 2024
(Via @RecepPerception)
⁃ 28th percentile vs Man
⁃ 45th percentile vs ZoneGive me ANY other CHI pass-catcher at cost in 2025.
Odunze, Burden, Loveland.
I’d rather make those bets. pic.twitter.com/VPH9dv8Eju
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFFWrld) July 31, 2025
Moore is 28 years old and is coming off one of the worst seasons since his rookie year. Fantasy managers will need to determine whether this was due to the environment in Chicago, Moore's disinterest, or the early signs of aging. There's no reason to expect Moore to fall off the cliff completely, but he no longer has the benefit of the doubt of being the only capable pass-catcher.
While Moore could finish around his WR20 ADP, fantasy managers need to ask, will there be enough volume in Chicago to give Moore the chance to finish in the top-15? Or the top 12 and give them a real chance to provide value? When considering the other pass-catchers around him, this gets harder to believe, and thus, the reason to avoid him at his current ADP.
D.K. Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers - WR21
Metcalf is entering his seventh season in the NFL. As a rookie, Metcalf averaged 10.1 half-PPR PPG and finished as the WR37. In his second season, Metcalf exploded and finished as the WR8 with a 14.4 half-PPR PPG average. In his third season, Metcalf finished as the WR21 with a 12.2 half-PPR PPG. In his fourth year, his final season with Russell Wilson as his primary quarterback, he averaged 11.0 half-PPR PPG and was the WR24. With Geno Smith under center in 2023, Metcalf finished as the WR17, averaging 12.7 half-PPR PPG, and finally, last year, Metcalf averaged 10.5 half-PPR PPG and was the WR33.
Based on his finishes, Metcalf has only one season in which he outperformed his 2025 ADP in a meaningful way. Only twice in six seasons did he finish above his current ADP. That's a red flag. At this stage of his career, Metcalf is who he is. He's a good player, for sure, but he has rarely provided fantasy managers with value at a WR21 price tag. Now, in Pittsburgh, you can easily make the argument that this is the worst coaching staff and quarterback he's ever played with.
I will gladly take prime Wilson over the washed-up version of Aaron Rodgers. The same goes for the revitalized Geno Smith. Don't even get me started on Arthur Smith, although we're obligated to talk about him. In 2019, as the offensive coordinator of the Titans, the rookie A.J. Brown finished as the WR26 with an 11.9 half-PPR PPG average. The following year, he was the WR14 with a 14.3 half-PPR PPG average.
After that, Arthur Smith became the head coach for the Falcons. Their leading receiver in 2021 was Russell Gage Jr., so it's not fair to fault Smith for Gage's poor fantasy showing. However, in 2022, the team drafted star rookie Drake London, who promptly finished as the WR48 with an 8.0 half-PPR PPG average. In 2023, London averaged 8.7 half-PPR PPG and finished as the WR44. Smith was fired and became the offensive coordinator for the Steelers in 2024. Last year, George Pickens finished with a 9.6 half-PPR PPG average and was the WR43.
So, ask yourself, what's most likely to happen in 2025? Arthur Smith has been the offensive coordinator or head coach for five years, during which he has had access to quality receivers: Brown, London, and Pickens. Only once in those five years did any of them finish above WR25. In fact, three times, they didn't even finish in the top 36. Then there's Metcalf. He's been in the league for six seasons and has only twice finished higher than his current ADP.
The argument for Metcalf is simple. There's no one else for Aaron Rodgers to throw the ball to, so he's going to get a ton of targets. He had target shares of 25.9% and 24.4% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. However, those numbers dropped to 20.5% in 2023 and 20.4% in 2024. Granted, the target competition has been much more difficult in Seattle with Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but there are legitimate concerns about how Rodgers and Metcalf mesh.
Metcalf's average depth of target is 12.7 for his career. It was 13.1 in 2024 and 12.8 in 2023. Last year, despite having Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams, Rodgers' intended air yards per attempt were just 6.8 yards. The league average was 7.6. Among 36 qualified passers, Rodgers ranked 29th in this statistic. Rodgers, at his age, is no longer throwing the ball downfield, but Metcalf is primarily a downfield weapon.
Given Metcalf's and Arthur Smith's history, as well as the skill set differences between Rodgers and Metcalf, fantasy managers should have no interest in drafting Metcalf at his current price. Given how little Pittsburgh is likely to pass the ball, it's hard to envision a scenario where Metcalf outplays his ADP in a meaningful way, if he does at all.
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens - WR24
There is just no way I'm drafting Flowers before Rashee Rice, Jameson Williams, or Tetairoa McMillan. I might not even take him over Pickens, whose ADP is WR32. Last year, Flowers averaged 10.1 half-PPR PPG and finished as the WR35. As a rookie the previous year, he averaged 10.5 half-PPR PPG and was the WR33. Pretty consistent, but why should fantasy managers be expecting him to jump up to WR24? Where's the upside on that price? Is there any? It's already about 10 spots higher than he's ever finished before.
It's hard to see where that jump is going to come from. Sometimes, as with Pickens, for example, we can easily say that Dallas is going to pass far more than Pittsburgh and that Dak Prescott is far better than the quarterbacks he has had in the past. For Flowers, there's no such argument. Lamar Jackson threw for 7,850 yards and 65 touchdowns the past two seasons. It doesn't get any better than that.
Flowers, after scoring nine touchdowns in two seasons, might be a candidate for progression, especially considering he has 224 and 151 receptions. One would think he'd have more than nine touchdowns with that volume. However, Flowers' lack of scoring coincides with minimal usage in the end zone. Last year, Rashod Bateman had 11 end zone targets, Mark Andrews had 10, and Isaiah Likely had eight. All three of them garnered more end zone targets than Flowers did, with seven.
Flowers' seven end zone targets were tied with the 51st-most among receivers and tight ends. The trend continued, as evidenced by the red zone targets as well. Andrews had 22, Bateman had 21, Flowers had 19, and Likely had 17. Among all receivers and tight ends, Flowers' 19 red zone targets were tied for 55th. This type of utilization is unlikely to yield many touchdowns, and touchdowns are often how a player hits a ceiling outcome.
Flowers' current ADP would represent his best fantasy finish to date in a significant way. At his current price, there's little room, or any, for him to provide extra value. Fantasy managers are currently forced to buy Flowers at or near his ceiling, which is why he's a player I'm avoiding at his cost.
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